Hey guys, no pick tonight. Very tempting being the first game of the season but I haven't got a lean either way, BOL for those who do!
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me neither...Comment -
Well not a bad game really, I thought GWS played quite well in patches. They ran the ball out well under pressure but fell over at half forward. Does anyone know what the books had for total points?Comment -
yep 200
fell well under
sydney dominated most of the night but failed to do any real harm on the scoreboard. 14 goals 16 ....not a great return.Comment -
Yeah well that may be a good bet this year, bet on the under for any GWS match. Depends on what team they are up against of course. I see they have the Kangaroos round 2 so that might be a good opportunityComment -
Looking forward to your picks johno, did you have a thread last year?Comment -
Ok guys first pick for 2012!
3 units on Richmond +13.5
.5 unit on the ML also $2.55
This line has come down from +22.5, obviously a lot of public support for Richmond. Carlton has bent over Richmond on many occaisions in the last few years and that is why they are favourites. Richmond has won 2 of the last 10 against Carlton and has only covered the spread on 3 of those 10 matches. Interesting that the 2 wins and the 3 covers were the home games for Richmond, but really means little considering all games are played at the MCG.
Carlton will be without Michael Jamison, Robbie Warnock, Andrew Walker and Nick Duigan and I do think they will be without Jeremy Laidler even though he has been named.
Richmond will be close to full strength and are coming off some really good form from the NAB Cup, beating GWS, Geelong and Hawthorn. I know that it was only NAB Cup but those games are important for confidence and getting structures into place.
Carlton are coming into tomorrow nights game with zero wins in the pre-season, good form doesn't just come back at the flick of a switch so I cant see any reason why Richmond cant win this one outright.
Richmond by 23 points
Sorry about the long spiel, BOL to everyone, lets get a win on the board straight up!
I will have more picks for the other games after teams are namedComment -
FYI Pinnacle have Richmond $3.35 to win by 1-39 pointsComment -
GL on 1st play Jono...spewin I didn't take that line when it was 22.5...I pondered it for so long but decided I wasn't gonna be fooled by pre season form.Comment -
Thanks mate, I'm spewin too! It was just way too early to put any money on itComment -
Richmond defenders are struggling, I get nervous everytime they have the ball. Couldn't handball, kick or mark the ball to save themselves in that first half, hopefully they can get their act together in the second half. Not only that but the forward structure is failing so things need to change for us to get this win. C'mon Tigers!!Comment -
A disapointing start to the year with the Tigers running out of legs to loose by 44 points. They could have very easily been within 1 point in the last quarter but the better team on the night got it done easily in the end.
Oh well on to the next one!
1 unit on the Hawks tonight -7.5
Should be a great game but I think the Hawks will be to good for the Magpies, good luck and hopefully we can get one on the board!Comment -
Great win by the Hawks and a great game to watch!
Nice to get a win after last night, I'll be back tomorrow with more picksComment -
Ok dont have any leans for today's matches but I have two plays for tonight
Geelong -6.5 - 3 units
Geelong have won the last 8 of 10 against Freo, 5 of those wins were in Perth with an average win margin of 33 points. The 1 game that Freo did win at home was by 7 points. Freo come into the game with some underdone players in Sandilands and Barlow and Geelong's Enright is back but he will also be underdone not playing in any of the NAB Cup matches. One match-up I'm loving is Dawson on J-Pod, I gotta say Dawson is Fcuking useless, he isn't a possession getter, he has one role, stopping his opponent which he struggles with. The one reason Dawson gets a game is because Ross Lyon loves him, thats why he left the saints (thank god!!). Anyway enough Dawson bashing...
Geelong by 27
Essendon -2.5 - 1 unit
North and Essendon have had some close encounters of late but I think Essendon will be far too strong tonight. North will struggle to score as frequently as Essendon, I'd lean on the under 204 also.
Thanks and good luck!Comment -
Wow what a shit start!
Eagles -8.5 - 3 Units
Port Adelaide +16.5 - 1 Unit
GLComment -
Like your picks. West Coast will win, like port with the points but won't betComment -
Good day Sunday to finish off Round 1
Record:
5 Unit - 0-0
3 Unit - 1-2
1 Unit - 2-1
Overall 3-3 (-$120)Comment -
Carlton -20.5 - 1 unit
Should be a good game, it will be tight but Carlton will run away with it in the last quarter. Short break for Brisbane and Carlton is a good running team, BOL to everyoneComment -
Great win by the Blues winning us 1 unit
I have 3 plays on today
Port Adelaide +25.5 - 1 unit
Sydney -7.5 - 3 units
adelaide -29.5 - 5 units
The Bombers struggle against Port and after the Bombers nearly choking last week and Port on the improve I think this will be a close affair
Sydney will be well rested and freo had a hard fought win last week against the cats. Sydney are tough to beat at home and will be too good
The dogs struggled against a tall forward line last week and got pumped. They will have similar issues tonight with Tippett and Walker. Adelaide are on fire at the moment and dogs are struggling, Adelaide wins this easy!
GLComment -
Good luck Johno!Comment -
Well Adelaide failed to go on with their 25 point lead at half time to loose our 5 unit play making it a loosing day.
Today I'm going with the Hawks 1-39 points for 3 units, I think the hawks will be too good today and there is better value with the 1-39 than the line
GLComment -
That 1-39 is a punters nightmare....
Get 3 or 4 in front then your going for the other team , or last quarter get backdoor by junk time goals last qtr. Burnt me too many times....
Hawks -12.5 will do meComment -
Hawks unfortunatly didn't finish off the cats in that last quarter but what a great match!
Record for the season stands at
1 Unit Plays - 4-1
3 Unit Plays - 2-3
5 Unit Plays - 0-1
-6.2 units
My 1 unit plays have been doing well but the bigger plays have been falling short, I feel I've been a bit unlucky with a couple of those losses though but it swings both ways so cant bitch about it.
I'm on Collingwood tonight +2.5 for 1 Unit, will be interesting to see how good Carlton really is tonight, Collingwood have beaten the Blues on the last 5 occasions by an average of 40 points. I think Cloke will kill it tonight and Dawes is due for a good game, GLComment -
Even though I lost the bet I still enjoyed watching the Pies get done, haha, bitter much!
Carlton were awesome, smashed them in the clearances and just seemed to have so much space and run, maybe they are the real deal this year. Will be interesting the see what the line is against Essendon next week.
Anyway on to todays games:
Melbourne +27.5 - 1 Unit
Sydney -13.5 - 1 Unit
Freo/Brisbane under 187.5 - 1 Unit
GC/Essendon under 205.5 - 1 Unit
Dogs/Saints under 177.5 - 3 Units
Saints -12.5 - 1 Unit
Big one today, rare that I would bet on all games but I like them all, GLComment -
Almost a clean sweep today with Melbourne being the only loss
+5.92 units today, getting back on track. Be back tomorrow for more picksComment -
Looking to go on with the good form today and I'm liking the following
Hawks -28.5 - 3 Units
Hawks/Crows over 184.5 - 1 Unit
Cats -27.5 - 3 Units
Adelaide is completely overated at the moment, yes they are undeafeted but those wins were against GC and a stuggling Bulldogs team. The only thing stopping this being a 5 unit play is that the Hawks have had 5 days rest to Adelaide's 7, I think Hawks will crush them.
I also think the Cats will be far too good for North, Cats have won the last 8 of 10 against North by an average of 54 points, take the Cats
GLComment -
I know that the Cats game is still going but I have no chance of winning that one so I'll update the record now
1 Unit Plays - 9-3
3 Unit Plays - 4-4
5 Unit Plays - 0-1
-.6 Units for the season so far. Was a good round and looking forward to next week. Does anyone have any thoughts on round 4?Comment -
Think it'll be tough johno, only advice early on is to tread lightly.Comment -
Tonights pick is for over 170.5 points for 3 units, I think a lot of people will be assuming this will be low scoring but Saints have changed their style with Watters and are kicking the ball longer and more often than in previous years. This will be a fast paced game will a lot of scoring, bet the over with confidence, GLComment -
Same old low scoring crap johno I've been sucked in againComment -
Back on track mate, first 11minutes with only 2 goals had me worried but a decent last 8 minute to keep us in it.Comment -
Come on sainters, I want the over but I want the win as well!Comment -
Well saints choked for me but got the over for us, just!
Looking at tomorrow's games I'm locking in a early play
Adelaide/GWS under 208.5 - 3 units
More to come tomorrowComment -
5 games on today, hopefully we can continue the good run
Collingwood -26.5 - 5 units
Adelaide/GWS under 208.5 - 3 units
West Coast -6.5 - 1 unit
Brisbane -20.5 - 1 unit
Big day, I know that Collingwood have some injuries but their midfield and forward line is so much more talented than Ports. To me this seems too easy, Port aren't as good as people think and Pies aren't going as bad as people think. The Pies will be looking to rebound after that effort against Carlton.
GL today!Comment
