Johno's AFL Picks 2012

[johno35]

What do you think of this one johno:

Kang/rich under 203.5, GWS +94.5, Freo/GWS under 183.5

It is my last chance to make this a good weekend. Had a multi when I was going to the races yesterday and had a few horses into some nrl bets into afl bets, and the carlton goal after the siren killed my last leg. I don't want to be chasing too hard, but I feel like the above is reasonable?

Missed betting on the swannies/saints game, very odd game so far though mate, hopefully the saints pull through for you!

Sorry mate saw this after I put my over bet on, I like GWS and the under in that game though, GL mate

[johno35]

Would love to know how many ball ups and throw ins there has been in this game. Poor game to watch, bad umpiring

[Vinnie Paz]

Were rght there johno
I can just smell it !

[johno35]

Swans -17.5
Over 174.5

Cash em both

[johno35]

GWS+94.5 - 3 units
under 183.5 - 1 unit

GWS are due to play some sort of competative footy, and Freo love to restrict and play slow footy (thanks to Ross Lyon), makes it hard to smash teams

GL

[hedgejob]

Go Swans

[Vinnie Paz]

Thanks bro
Tailed u on the spread for 3 U and Now the north for another 5.

[hedgejob]

Rolling with Freo to cover. They need to win by 100+ to get into the 8. Win means nothing if its less than 100.

[johno35]

Go Swans

Good stuff!

[johno35]

Rolling with Freo to cover. They need to win by 100+ to get into the 8. Win means nothing if its less than 100.

Just dont know how Freo can win by that amount with the way they footy, GL

[Vinnie Paz]

Tight game here in melbourne
Hope we pull away 4th Q

[johno35]

Very tight! Was looking good early
GO ROOS!

[johno35]

Great last quarter of footy

[johno35]

Roos -3.5

CASH IT!!!

Did you get -3.5 Vinnie??

[johno35]

Just missed out on the over, did you go the under Cooper?

[Coopertrooper]

Yeah i did mate, but may end up being futile if GWS don't cover (and considering they are goalless into the 3rd quarter...).

Epic finish to that match though, very nice work for you guys on the -3.5!

Freo look like they'll win by about 150, GWS look hopeless.

[johno35]

Yeah i did mate, but may end up being futile if GWS don't cover (and considering they are goalless into the 3rd quarter...).

Epic finish to that match though, very nice work for you guys on the -3.5!

Freo look like they'll win by about 150, GWS look hopeless.

Thanks mate, yeah was a tight finish! GWS coming good kicking the last 2, there is hope yet! The under is all but in the bag

[Coopertrooper]

And GWS lose by 95, letting a point through with 30 seconds to go. Under got you something back, but geez that hurt, bloody GWS.

3rd time this weekend I've lost a big play in the last minute of the last leg of my bet. Turnaround of about 40 units from those alone. Fair to say I'm pretty filthy at how my luck has panned out, makes you feel like throwing the towel in sometimes.

Hopefully you ended up with a positive weekend mate.

[johno35]

So close, 1 point either way in two games today. Great round though, I'll update the record tonight

[johno35]

Updated record

ML Underdog Plays - 3-6 (+.69 units)
1 Unit Plays - 28-18 (+8.56 units)
3 Unit Plays - 53-42 (+22.92 units)
5 Unit Plays - 10-17 (-41.8 units)

Total -9.63 units
Overall Plays: 94-83 (53%)

[johno35]

And GWS lose by 95, letting a point through with 30 seconds to go. Under got you something back, but geez that hurt, bloody GWS.

3rd time this weekend I've lost a big play in the last minute of the last leg of my bet. Turnaround of about 40 units from those alone. Fair to say I'm pretty filthy at how my luck has panned out, makes you feel like throwing the towel in sometimes.

Hopefully you ended up with a positive weekend mate.

Yeah bloody spewn' for you there. That's why I don't like multi's, great returns but you always seem to get done in the last. Sort of like texas hold em, its like getting "rivered"
I managed to win 11 units this weekend so I'm happy as, I had a couple of things go my way. Friday will come around and it will be a new week mate, get em in round 18!

[Coopertrooper]

Good to see! You've been stiff with those big plays this year, your numbers have been cruel, but you're getting it back quickly now, good stuff!

I agree about the multis, I usually try and stick away, but sometimes they do help build value.

[johno35]

Lines are out for Round 19. GWS +98.5 might be a goer, to ealy to tell but have a feeling that this could be an opportunity late in the season for Collingwood to rest some players, just a thought.
I also really like the following:
Sydney -46.5
West Coast -32.5
St.kilda -34.5

Thoughts?

[Vinnie Paz]

John almost that time again
Ill be on the lookout

[Coopertrooper]

Thoughts on the hawks tonight? The bombers are fade material, I'm liking the 40-59 bracket. Hard to gauge the match total, looks pretty sharp.

[johno35]

Yeah mate, liking the Hawks for sure, line has moved from 31.5 to 35.5 today so a lot of money on the Hawks. Essendon without Crameri so I just dont see them matching the Hawks on the scoreboard. Also Hawks backline gets a boost with the return of Hodge and Guerra. Under is also looking good

Hawks -35.5 - 3 units
Under 200.5 - 3 units

Let get it tonight! GL

[johno35]

Great win from the Hawks, shame on missing the under but not fussed if u come out just paying juice. Be back tomorrow

[Vinnie Paz]

Cant believe i missed this

[johno35]

Geelong -9.5 - 3 units
Under 182.5 - 5 units

All over this game, very confident. Game total jumped from 176.5 to 182.5 this morning. Wet weather game in Geelong usually results in a low score. GL

[johno35]

North Melbourne -44.5 - 3 units

North to win this one by 60+ is my call

[garygroundwork]

yeah like the under on the geelong game if it's going to rain. crows tend to kick big scores but as u said down at simmons with rain should be low..not to mention with the removal of the stand, no wind protection makes it difficult scoring up one end.

fingers crossed it rains..

[garygroundwork]

weather doesn't look too bad

[johno35]

weather doesn't look too bad

Yeah it will just be the occasional shower. Geelong looking really good, hopefully they pull away more in the second half so I can relax. Still can't see it going over, Adelaide are struggling to score and cats have been getting some hard shots at goal

[johno35]

North Melbourne doing it easy also!

[johno35]

Collingwood -86.5 - 1 unit