Thatguy's NRL Plays

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 37-34 +5.88


Play #1
Cowboys vs Dragons ML 1x 2.35
We're getting some great value on the books this week for the Dragons who should have a solid structure across the park. Cowboys have injury worries and looked woeful against the Rabbitohs - if they are flat footed against the Dragons they will be made to pay. The square money is on the North Queensland this week because of the 'at home' advantage and bounce back factor.. they've yet to lose 2 games in a row but odds are that happens Friday night.
Dragons had an almighty scare last week against the Roosters and Soward's kicking game should be much better this week. The winner gets a top 4 position and games like this tend to favour experience. Cowboys just don't seem hungry enough to nail games when they really matter.
Dragons ML should be about 1.98 according to my model, so we're getting a lot of value at 2.35 for a top 6 side. It'll be close a one but I'm rolling with the Dragons for 1x. They should come out swinging after almost being humiliated last week against the Roosters and have had well over a week to prepare. GL

GL

[Crowing Capers]

Keep grinding TG...
I'm backing you for 3-4 unit profit this weekend

[benrama]

Opposite side tonight TG. Dragons are offensively impotent this year, and really the Roosters should have beaten them by 1-2 tries. Their defense is what has kept them in games, but the Roosters should have taken them for 30, Brisbane took them for 28, Bulldogs took them for 30 - they can be vulnerable.

NQ did start with a shocker against Souths, but actually looked OK after the first 20 mins and outscored Souths 16-0. This is NQ's last home game till mid June so you can bet they know this is pretty much a "must win" if they want to keep top 4 positioning.

What major injury worries do you see for NQ? I think this is possibly their strongest squad of the year, particularly if - as expected - Matt Scott plays. Linnett may even play. Meanwhile Dragons will be without Beau Scott.

I'm even sprinkling some on the NQ 13+ here.

BOL though, one of us will end up winning tonight

[angelo63]

Hard games tonight mate, Looks like a coin toss for me in the Cowboys Dragons match and the value is in teh Dragons but ill stay out of it, I can see some value in Parra at the ML of 3.40 and may look at a live play there. Good luck with your bets this week.

[That Guy]

Keep grinding TG...
I'm backing you for 3-4 unit profit this weekend

Cheers mate... grinding away GL

[That Guy]

Opposite side tonight TG. Dragons are offensively impotent this year, and really the Roosters should have beaten them by 1-2 tries. Their defense is what has kept them in games, but the Roosters should have taken them for 30, Brisbane took them for 28, Bulldogs took them for 30 - they can be vulnerable.

NQ did start with a shocker against Souths, but actually looked OK after the first 20 mins and outscored Souths 16-0. This is NQ's last home game till mid June so you can bet they know this is pretty much a "must win" if they want to keep top 4 positioning.

What major injury worries do you see for NQ? I think this is possibly their strongest squad of the year, particularly if - as expected - Matt Scott plays. Linnett may even play. Meanwhile Dragons will be without Beau Scott.

I'm even sprinkling some on the NQ 13+ here.

BOL though, one of us will end up winning tonight

Word is that Scott, Linnett and Hall are all out for the Cowboys. I agree they're not a weak team by any means and they go into this match as favourites. Sims and Tamou if they're having a good night will cause some problems, but I'm buying the value in Dragons who should be priced much shorter according to my model. They lost Beau Scott but get back Stanley tonight who is always a player to watch in the backline. If Soward's kicking is on song they can win the territorial advantage and the side should be pumped after a get out of jail win last week. Cowboys have also had some shocking form at home and I think they'll put up a good fight tonight... just buying the value in the Dragons ML.
Good luck mate.. and you're right - at least one of us will be happy!

[That Guy]

Added:

Play #2
Eels vs Bulldogs OVER 38.5 1x 1.95
There has been lots of late money on the Eels tonight and they could possibly win tonight against their arch rivals. But one play I'm locking in is the OVER, even if the Eels are down they are still a side that can put on points and we saw that last week against the Tigers. Sandow back in the side will be pumped and if the Bulldog's big men continue to throw the ball around there will be points up the middle of the park. The Bulldog's PPG average has been trending down the past few rounds and it's only a matter of time before they start laying on some points - I'm willing to suggest that happens tonight.
Whilst the model has this game dead on 36 points tonight I'm backing the potential for more points on the board. The Bulldogs have more points in them and the Eels will be up for a fight.
I'm locking this in 1x at 1.95
GL

[kingsr]

Lots of money on the LOLEELS? All I'm seeing is the bulldogs price firming on Aussie bookies.

[That Guy]

Lots of money on the LOLEELS? All I'm seeing is the bulldogs price firming on Aussie bookies.

According to CB there has been "significant bets" laid on the Eels late this afternoon. Pinny odds have dropped on them slightly but I'm not touching that game ML or points so didn't investigate further... could be just spruking or weekend warriors or David Walsh laying $2 million down... who knows!
Just playing the OVER and hope they both score.
GL this weekend mate

[s2230011]

I like the Dragons very much, I think Cowboys are a little overrated to be honest and I think the Dragons will be ready for this one. But I like the under in the first game .. firstly its a local derby, i think last years one was something like 8-7 in extra time, secondly, Turner is out which might mean a few missed conversions, although Burt will slot them from everywhere. The line here is 40.5 which means one missed conversion and we will need an 8 try match. The dogs have been solid defensively holding two of the best attacks in the NRL to 12 the last two weeks.

The only thing I dont like about the Under is that Parra's last 15 mins against the Tigers is giving them the illusion that they did such a good job when they threw the ball around and might go for it from the outset.

I like betting it being less than 8 tries if the goalkicking goes 6/7 or less ... Good luck .. maybe a 40 game match keeps everyone happy

[That Guy]

I like the Dragons very much, I think Cowboys are a little overrated to be honest and I think the Dragons will be ready for this one. But I like the under in the first game .. firstly its a local derby, i think last years one was something like 8-7 in extra time, secondly, Turner is out which might mean a few missed conversions, although Burt will slot them from everywhere. The line here is 40.5 which means one missed conversion and we will need an 8 try match. The dogs have been solid defensively holding two of the best attacks in the NRL to 12 the last two weeks.

The only thing I dont like about the Under is that Parra's last 15 mins against the Tigers is giving them the illusion that they did such a good job when they threw the ball around and might go for it from the outset.

I like betting it being less than 8 tries if the goalkicking goes 6/7 or less ... Good luck .. maybe a 40 game match keeps everyone happy

Where are you getting the 40pt line?
38.5 at Sportsbet but odds are dropping... Down to 1.87 last time I looked.

[kingsr]

Sounds like Centrebet trying to steer punters to put money on the LOLEELS.

[benrama]

Linnett and Hall probably won't play, by I'd be surprised if Scott didn't - he's still pushing for SOO and needs at least two games to push his case.

I think the whole NQ aren't good at home line has been over exaggerated. Round 1 was an aberration and they lost to Melbourne and sharks by one try - no shame there.

Dragons are 2 from 8 at NQ, and I've watched them play nearly every game this year, they are impotent in attack and have one of the lowest meters/points ratios in the comp.

Having said that they could also win by 20 if NQ play like they did in round 1

Enjoy the footy either way

[That Guy]

Linnett and Hall probably won't play, by I'd be surprised if Scott didn't - he's still pushing for SOO and needs at least two games to push his case.

I think the whole NQ aren't good at home line has been over exaggerated. Round 1 was an aberration and they lost to Melbourne and sharks by one try - no shame there.

Dragons are 2 from 8 at NQ, and I've watched them play nearly every game this year, they are impotent in attack and have one of the lowest meters/points ratios in the comp.

Having said that they could also win by 20 if NQ play like they did in round 1

Enjoy the footy either way

Good read on the game.. obviously "value" means sweet FA if the Dragons fail to show up!

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 38-35 +5.83
Round 9: 1-1

Play #3
Warriors vs Broncos OVER 38.5 2x 1.95
This game is shaping up to be a solid OVER play. These sides have a history of hitting totals well over 50 and both should be ready to throw it around today. Fine conditions are forecast in Auckland and with Ropati moving to fullback and Ben Te'o returning for the Broncos both sides will have more attacking options. Sam Thaiday should play despite missing training this week.
The PPG figure for both sides is mirrored at 22pts and for the UNDER to hit we'll need a defensive Warriors side to hold out the Broncos... I don't think that happens. Instead this game looks to be a score-fest on my model.
I'm rolling with 2x at 1.95 GL


Play #4
Titans vs Tigers UNDER 40.5 1x 1.85
Despite losing matches the Titans defense has held up pretty well and they've been good for a few UNDER plays. The up/down form on West Tigers is a concern - if they're on song today we could see a blow out. But the Tigers on paper are not the great attacking side that we're used too, putting on a low 19 PPG. Both coaches have been quoted as saying defense is key this week. Titans will be looking to shut down the Tigers play makers, while the Tigers are focused on shutting out sides altogether after last week's near miss comeback.
This game should hit about 36 purely on stats. At my book the UNDER hit 1.72 yesterday before jumping to 1.85 today. Showers were forecast on the Gold Coast but it should be dry tonight... either way I think the UNDER still hits and I'm rolling with 1x at 1.85
GL

Play #5
Panthers vs Storm - 11.5 2x 1.60
Not a fan of 'alternate lines' but had to take this one. Model has the Storm winning by 16 points and the book's line is currently at 15.5 which is too close for mine. See nothing but a big Storm win tonight as the Panther's injuries mount and the Storm keep performing well.
12 is a key number for the Storm and they should win by at least 2 tries on a bad night against the Panthers.
I'm taking a little bit of a safety buffer at -11.5 but locking this in for 2x.
GL

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 41-35 +9.78
Round 9: 4-1

Good night to get some cash back off the books going 3-0... especially when 2 underdogs won the night.
Rolling along with some plays for tomorrow:

Play #6
Sea Eagles vs Tigers UNDER 40.5 1x 1.95
Was expecting the line to come out as 38pts on this game. Raiders will struggle to put points on the board and should be heavily focused on defense. They played defensive games against the Roosters and Cowboys where the total barely managed to get over 20pts. The only danger is the Sea Eagles wiping the Raiders off the park at Fortress Brookvale. However, Manly's form of late has been patchy and I'm not entirely convinced they can put on 30+ points.
We should see a score around 36points which makes this a lock for me at 1.95 GL


Play #7
Roosters vs Knights UNDER 38.5 1x 1.85
Wayne Bennett has flagged the Knight's defense as needing work this week after it was full of holes last week. You can bet your last dollar that when Bennett flags defense he means it. We should see a rock solid Knight's back line this week up against the Roosters at home. If you take out the 2 blow out games for the Knights their defense is excellent and we've cashed solid UNDERS on them in the past.
Model has this game at 37pts which is line ball, but I'm playing it based on the Bennett defense factor and the belief that it'll be a close game (19-18 predicted).
GL

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 43-35 +11.58
Round 9: 6-1

Strong day going 2-0.. Knights were defensive minded for enough of the game to make the UNDER count and Raiders just kept themselves in the game as predicted.
Working on a play for tomorrow night as we push on thru the NRL season.
GL on your plays for the coming week

[garygroundwork]

Doing very well mate, good stuff.

[Shifty107]

No play tonight Guy. Was hoping to see u on the Sharkies.

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 43-35 +11.58
Round 9: 6-1

Play #8
Rabbitohs vs Sharks UNDER 39.5 1x 1.95
Should be a good close game. Have the total set at 38pts but looking at the Sharks opposition and wins over the past few weeks their PPG figure is a little over-inflated. They haven't played teams like the Broncos, Warriors or Storm - so you would expect they wouldn't get easy points against the Rabbitohs tonight. Both teams have been solid in defense and this should be a good old fashioned arm wrestle.
Locking this in for 1x at 1.95
GL

[That Guy]

No play tonight Guy. Was hoping to see u on the Sharkies.

Game is too close to call... but.. looking at the line movements you'd have to say there is A LOT of value with the Sharkies tonight.
GL mate

[That Guy]

Adding:

Play #9
Rabbitohs vs Sharks + 12.5 2x 1.35
Just can't ignore the line movements against the Sharks tonight. Might be a massively square play, but to get +12.5 at 1.35 on a side that is performing well and were equal favs with the Rabbitohs earlier in the week.. I'll take it.
Cannot see the Sharks getting smashing tonight and the expected return of Sam Burgess shouldn't impact too much. Sharks have not been beaten by more than 2 converted tries in a while.
GL

[That Guy]

updated end of Round 9
NRL Season 2012 43-35 +11.28
Final Round 9: 7-2
Good result for the round. Should have left the UNDER play on the Rabbitohs / Sharks - model had it at 38.5 pts but overplayed the hand on it going under when the opposite happened. Have a feeling the Sharks will come out and kill it next week.
Have a good weekend and GL with your plays until Round 10

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 43-35 +11.28

Round 10
Back into it for another week - some good looking games ahead this week and to control money management ahead of a potential rocky State of Origin period ahead. GL this weekend.

Play #1
Broncos vs Manly OVER 36.5 1x 1.95
Ben Hunt is no replacement for Peter Wallace and Corey Norman's game will also suffer with the loss of Wallace by his side. Normally the UNDER would be a quality play given the Broncos will lose their potent kicking game and point scoring ability. However, with potentially less field positional for the Broncos they should be more willing to throw it around and force passes. These type of games generally lead to natural attrition where defense goes out the window and it's all about who has the most points. Manly should perform better than they did last week and have David Williams returning, they should make easy metres up the middle of the park.
Have this game at 37pts on model but I'm playing the OVER because there should be more points given the changes this week.
GL


Play #2
Bulldogs vs Titans UNDER 40.5 1x 1.95
These teams only met 5 weeks ago the total reached 50 points, based on that figure you'd assume the line would open at 42.5. However things have changed since then - Scott Prince is out & the PPG figure for the Titans has dropped dramatically. Their defense is rock solid at the moment and keeping them in games. Instead of trying to out score the opposition they have worked hard to shut them out and it's worked to an extent. Zillman returns to fullback for the Titans this week just in time to stem the flow of Bulldogs points.
I have this game at 34points and don't have any reason to believe it will go higher. Titans shouldn't put on too many points which means the Bulldogs will need to score lots of tries - with Zillman returning and if their defense holds up it won't happen.
I'm locking this in for 1x. GL

[kingsr]

Prince is playing and so is beau champion. Titans have their best side playing that they've had all year.

[That Guy]

Prince is playing and so is beau champion. Titans have their best side playing that they've had all year.

Yep - this came thru after I'd gone with the play. Club website was showing Prince returning next week.
Still rolling with this and hopeful the Titans can lay on some good defense. Champion is a non-event from mine, but the Prince factor concerns me a little. GL this week mate

[kingsr]

Thanks mate...prince has been shite anyway. I don't see scoring more than 1-2 tries. GL

[ThaBigG]

GL on the broncos Manly OVER, I'm on it!!

[benrama]

I'm on the Broncos and the under, two of the best defenses in the comp and we know how that usually ends up.

No read whatsoever on Bulldogs vs Titans, probably worth a small action play on Titans in case doggies don't show up.

Enjoy the games!

[kingsr]

Im on Manly and dogs ML multi. Hodges out for Brisbane...

[ThaBigG]

The OVER hits!!!!

[benrama]

Good call on the over, didn't expect broncos defense to be so flakey.

And how sh.ithouse are those doggies? Pretenders again this year

[kingsr]

Nahhh just flying under the radar, that's the way des likes it.




.......who am I kidding, we are 1 from 5 last 5 games

[Crowing Capers]

Fricken bulldogssss
Useless *****. Cost me 4 figure amount last night in multi. 6 v 14 at home and could not get job done. **** em
Plzzzzzzzzz
That Guy you on fire bro. Keep up the good work man.
When i remember I will chuck you a couple points but hardly seems a good swap. I win money from your tips and I give you useless points.
Anyway boys im off to See Black Caviar today in corporate tent to really get amongst it !!!!

[That Guy]

Fricken bulldogssss
Useless *****. Cost me 4 figure amount last night in multi. 6 v 14 at home and could not get job done. **** em
Plzzzzzzzzz
That Guy you on fire bro. Keep up the good work man.
When i remember I will chuck you a couple points but hardly seems a good swap. I win money from your tips and I give you useless points.
Anyway boys im off to See Black Caviar today in corporate tent to really get amongst it !!!!

Yeah I would have taken the Bulldogs last night as well.. damn!
Taking money from the books is satisfaction enough as far as I'm concerned