Thatguy's NRL Plays

kingsr · 04-03-12, 01:21 AM

Great start to the season ThatGuy. I posted a screenshot of the opening lines in Angelo's thread. Was gonna post it here too but then I thought that would be stupid...I'll try post it every week so we can track line movements.

That Guy · 04-05-12, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by kingsr

Great start to the season ThatGuy. I posted a screenshot of the opening lines in Angelo's thread. Was gonna post it here too but then I thought that would be stupid...I'll try post it every week so we can track line movements.

Cheers mate - great to keep track of line movements
GL this week

That Guy · 04-05-12, 09:19 PM

NRL Season 2012 28-21 +7.75 units

Back to it for another week. No ML or line plays on the Friday games - both coin tosses where the favourites could easily be beaten.
Sticking to totals where I've been having most success and strong ML / line players when they appear.
GL this week.

Round 6

Play #1
Bulldogs vs Rabbitohs UNDER 42 1x 1.95
Early movement for this line has been interesting. Started at 44.5 at my book early before moving to 43.5, 42.5 and finally settling on 42 (all in the space of a few hours). While not basing this play on movement it should give an indication of where the books think this total may lie. Obviously it's a great play if you can still get for 44.5.
Both these teams played less than stellar last week. The Bulldogs gifting the Titans some early points before winning the game and the Rabbitohs defense holding out the Tigers to put on a late but less than spectacular win. Normally this game would be an easy over as both of these sides lay on the heavy attacking play. However with Merritt missing and Burgess now out of action the Rabbitohs will need to rely on their defensive play even more so. They've held out the points well in the past few matches and that needs to continue tonight. Ben Barba will need to be controlled and should slow down the heavy Souths pack. Model has this game at around 22-10 and I'm expecting similar game to when the Rabbits played the Storm - where heavy attacking play stuns the side and causes them to go MIA.
If the Rabbits continue with the great defense this goes under easily.
GL

Play #2
Tigers vs Broncos OVER 40 1x 1.95
Broncos have so far been happy to follow the pace of their opposing side and grind out a win. We saw that last week against the Dragons and I think we see it again tonight. The Tigers will throw it around and try to play this game on the edges, avoiding a battle of the forwards where they are very weak - especially now Ellis is ruled out. If they try and out run the Broncos this turns into a try fest which I'm counting on. Thaiday and Parker in the side will cause havoc for the Tigers and should be able to do what the Rabbits didn't do last week - split the side open leaving the fringes as their only attacking option. Either way I see this going over 40pts easily unless there is a mini-Tigers rivial on the cards, but with Corey back to give some experience to the Broncos pack this is highly doubtful.
I'm locking in the OVER for 1x.
GL

Domestic · 04-05-12, 09:44 PM

That Guy, I am with you on the Bulldogs under, 42.5 @ Centrebet/Sportingbet. Also oddly enough, I thin it opened at 40.5 at Pinnacle and has not moved.

EDIT: Just went up to 41.5 @ Pinnacle

MatI · 04-06-12, 01:59 AM

Originally posted by That Guy

Bulldogs vs Rabbitohs UNDER 42 1x 1.95
Early movement for this line has been interesting. Started at 44.5 at my book early before moving to 43.5, 42.5 and finally settling on 42 (all in the space of a few hours). While not basing this play on movement it should give an indication of where the books think this total may lie. Obviously it's a great play if you can still get for 44.5.
Both these teams played less than stellar last week. The Bulldogs gifting the Titans some early points before winning the game and the Rabbitohs defense holding out the Tigers to put on a late but less than spectacular win. Normally this game would be an easy over as both of these sides lay on the heavy attacking play. However with Merritt missing and Burgess now out of action the Rabbitohs will need to rely on their defensive play even more so. They've held out the points well in the past few matches and that needs to continue tonight. Ben Barba will need to be controlled and should slow down the heavy Souths pack. Model has this game at around 22-10 and I'm expecting similar game to when the Rabbits played the Storm - where heavy attacking play stuns the side and causes them to go MIA.
If the Rabbits continue with the great defense this goes under easily.

Hi mate, im looking for some small action this arvo. I can get a 2nd half line of 22.5 which would take the game total to 44.5. I am considering taking Under 22.5 for 2nd half. Any thoughts?

Thanks and keep up the solid work.

That Guy · 04-06-12, 02:54 AM

Originally posted by MatI

Hi mate, im looking for some small action this arvo. I can get a 2nd half line of 22.5 which would take the game total to 44.5. I am considering taking Under 22.5 for 2nd half. Any thoughts?

Thanks and keep up the solid work.

Hey mate,
Sorry - didn't see this post in game.
Hope you got on the live play. Solid!

MatI · 04-06-12, 03:11 AM

I was planning on jumping on it, but got distracted for only a couple of minutes, then was about to play it and market was suspended.

Thanks anyway though, im on the over for the Tigers game!

That Guy · 04-06-12, 11:04 PM

Updated: NRL Season 2012 29-22 +7.70 units
Round 6 1-1

Under in the Rabbitohs game was a good play, unfortunate the Broncos / Tigers put on a woeful performance a missed so many opportunities - keep us from having a perfect night. Anyway.. another day and more plays. GL

Play #3
Titans vs Roosters OVER 40.5 1x 1.95
Model has this game at 38 points but I'm banking on the Titans leaking more points and taking more chances as the game goes on.
Roosters played ordinary last week despite winning the match against the Warriors and should be fired up to put on a show today. Titans will either turn on the points and surprise us all or self com bust & give up the points. Both teams look pretty weak around the fringes and we should see lots of line breaks. I'm locking this in for 1x GL

Play #4
Dragons vs Sharks UNDER 35.5 1x 1.95
This will be a passionate local derby and points will be at a premium. Dragons and Sharks are two of the safest 'under sides' which is why this game is set at 35.5. Expect a tough game and Sharks defense at it's best. The average total for this local derby over the past 3 years is just over 20 points. Sharks defense has held up well this year and I see no reason why it won't slow the game down tonight. The UNDER is a solid play on this match up and I'm rolling with 1x. GL

Domestic · 04-07-12, 02:05 AM

Best of luck, on the roosters over, got 39.5 @ Sportingbet.

That Guy · 04-07-12, 03:30 AM

Another average game of footy with Titans & Roosters throwing away opportunities.
If the missed chances turn into points this goes over in the second half, otherwise it's more pain.
Will wait 10minutes into the second half - if there are 2 tries within the first 10mins I'll hang into this play, otherwise buy it out with live betting.

That Guy · 04-07-12, 04:13 AM

Adding 1x unit to Sharks / Dragons UNDER
Total of 2x units on this play

Crowing Capers · 04-07-12, 10:37 AM

Great call on the unders sharkys game.
I'm more of an AFL man but am following you very closely TG.
Think you are spot on with your calls and can see a big year here.
Juicy card 3 big games tomorrow. Storm have been kind to me this year , the question is are you on them tomorrow. Let's sweep the card mate....

That Guy · 04-07-12, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by Crowing Capers

Great call on the unders sharkys game.
I'm more of an AFL man but am following you very closely TG.
Think you are spot on with your calls and can see a big year here.
Juicy card 3 big games tomorrow. Storm have been kind to me this year , the question is are you on them tomorrow. Let's sweep the card mate....

cheers mate.. I think the Storm will win today but I'm not on this game - could be a danger spot and they have to lose eventually. Maybe I'm haunted by last year's card, went large on them against the Cowboys and they got flogged in Townsville.
Good luck with whatever you play

That Guy · 04-07-12, 07:14 PM

Updated: NRL Season 2012 30-23 +8.60 units
Round 6 2-2

Great to see the model spot on with the UNDER call between Sharks / Dragons - the 2x call was the right one and made a profitable night.
Time to continue with 3x games in action today.

Play #5
Raiders vs Warriors UNDER 42.5 1x 1.95
Both these teams have struggled in attack and I think we see that continue today. I have this game at 38 points, and whilst the Warriors AVG points conceded is a little bit high they shouldn't be pressured too much by an injury affected Raiders side. Leaving me to think the total probably lies more around the 30-36 region which makes it a play for me. Last time we saw the Raiders hold defensively against a top 5 attacking side in the Cowboys and a Warriors side off their game shouldn't pose too much more danger in attack.
I'm locking this in for 1x GL

Play #6
Raiders vs Warriors -2.5 1x 2.05
With players like Fensom, Dugan, Thompson and Shillington missing for the Raiders I just can't see them winning against a large Warriors pack. Whilst the NZ boys played horribly last week against the Roosters I think they'll have the manpower and strength to overcome the Raiders today. They have been together on team building exercises all week in and around Canberra - so no long plane trips and hopefully a more focused and confident Warriors side. Canberra have not won a Sunday afternoon game in 11 matches and statistically do much better at night. Whilst the Warriors haven't won in Canberra since 1997, but I think that changes today. We're getting a great line for the Warriors because they had a bad game last week, if they had of beaten the Roosters they would be massive favourites today.
I have the Warriors set at +10 points, so there is a lot of value in the 2.5 line and I'm playing it for 1x. GL

Play #7
Knights vs Eels OVER 39.5 1x 1.95
No matter which figures I play around with on the model it always has this as a solid OVER. The Knights should cause the Eels defense some worries and a fired up Knight's team coming off a loss is worrying. Last time they got lapped the Knights hit back the week after to beat an in form Bulldogs side - this week I think they bring the Eels back down to earth. Hayne should provide some points for the Eels but if it's one thing Wayne Bennett know how to do it's pump a side up after a loss. Unfortunately there is no value in the ML play on the Knights and -6.5 makes it a bit too close for mine.
The total for this game is set well over 46 points which makes it a play for me.. GL

Play #8
Cowboys vs Storm UNDER 38.5 1x 1.95
The total for this game is set low for a reason - this will be a close one. Forget last years demolition of the Storm by the Cowboys because I don't think that happens. This year should be a much closer and tighter game. Cowboys will be fired up for a big one but the Storm's defense should hold, I'm also not convinced by their effort last week against the Raiders. Only potential downside is this game turns into a white wash, but if the Cowboys turn up that shouldn't happen and I don't see them leaking 30 points like last season.
I have 36 points for the total of this game, which doesn't leave much room to move but I'm counting on a big effort by the Cowboys.
GL

That Guy · 04-08-12, 05:32 AM

Updated: NRL Season 2012 30-27 +4.60 units
Round 6 2-6

Wow.. just a dog day of NRL with Warriors and Cowboys not really turning up plus the missing the under by 1.5 points in the last 2mins. Has been a difficult week to cap and the worst since Round 1. Dogs are barking and the variance has been on the wrong side.
Positives are that there is one more game to go tomorrow night and eyeing off a big play. Also great to cash the 2x play on Saturday night. GL everyone

That Guy · 04-09-12, 01:27 AM

Updated: NRL Season 2012 30-27 +4.60 units
Round 6 2-6

Play #9
Sea Eagles vs Panthers UNDER 40.5 3x 1.95
This game looks the goods for a very solid under play. Both teams have been working on defense and the Panthers are aware they need to win this game by shutting down points. During the last 3 seasons the highest total we've seen between these sides is 38 points. Manly should be much stronger for their first home game this season and put in a solid effort.
Based on current averages / models the score should end up around 22-10 (total 32 points) which should gives us enough room to cash the UNDER. Only danger is that the Sea Eagle blow Panthers off the field and put on way too many points. If you think Manly will be too strong play this at 1x. Otherwise it's a 3x play for me with the stats and models both predicting a tight match and slight win to the Sea Eagles. GL

Domestic · 04-09-12, 03:09 AM

Best of luck tonight, not sure whether to play the under or Manly -5.5.

Domestic · 04-09-12, 03:26 AM

Holy shit, crazy money for the under late, down to 36.5 now.

Sol · 04-09-12, 03:30 AM

No Foran/Stewart. Under looks gold. GL!

Ben Franklin · 04-09-12, 03:52 AM

I like the panthers in this spot here. Key players out for Manly and the line has dropped to 4.5. Pressure will be on Manly to perform well at brookie while the panthers seem strong away from Centrebet.

I already locked in the panthers at +5.5 but the ML looks like a solid play now.

Good luck with your plays tonight.

MatI · 04-09-12, 03:54 AM

Originally posted by Ben Franklin

I already locked in the panthers at +5.5 but the ML looks like a solid play now.

Agreed. No way I trust Tigers to covers anything at the moment. I got panthers at +6.5 this morning.

hawley · 04-09-12, 03:58 AM

Panthers may be live dogs here.

I like the under.

Ben Franklin · 04-09-12, 04:01 AM

I liked the under as well but couldn't get the 40.5 in time so backed off. Still a solid play though but lost to much value for me.

That Guy · 04-09-12, 04:35 AM

Live total down to 28.5
Might still be some value in that closer to half time

Domestic · 04-09-12, 04:51 AM

Looking good at halftime, can't see these teams scoring 6 tries in the second half.

Sol · 04-09-12, 06:48 AM

Great call mate. Salvaged a rough week.

Domestic · 04-09-12, 10:00 PM

I believe these were the opening lines if anyone cares.

hawley · 04-09-12, 10:13 PM

Knights +3.5 / ML, Tigers -2.5

Best bet of the week must be cowboys -2.5. Come on the Roosters have been made to look good the last two weeks. The Cowboys will respond to that beatdown the Storm gave them.

Domestic · 04-09-12, 10:17 PM

Yeah, I like the Cowboys and Tigers at a first glance too.

hawley · 04-09-12, 10:47 PM

The Cowboys last result and the Roosters last two have warped that line. Cowboys are far superior

Sol · 04-10-12, 03:04 AM

Good price for the Souths IMO. Warriors don't deserve to be favorites.

hawley · 04-10-12, 03:14 AM

Originally posted by Sol

Good price for the Souths IMO. Warriors don't deserve to be favorites.

Agreed, although warriors at home will very rarely be dogs.

Unless they turn it around big time it will be another loss.

angelo63 · 04-10-12, 03:22 AM

Thats a very silly price for the Warriors after last weeks form, I would lay the 1.62 all day, Rabbitohs have workd them selves into some good form and the Warriors may need another loss to be enough to spark them into action.

That Guy · 04-10-12, 05:50 AM

Originally posted by Domestic

I believe these were the opening lines if anyone cares.

Cheers for these lines mate.
I agree - Cowboys line vs Roosters looks juicy early.
Souths line is temping but remember they will be without some key forwards (Asotasi, Burgess..) and have a horrible record in NZ.. surprising given how many Kiwis are in the side. Souths have a very weak bench which includes a player on debut and Talanoa who is shocking in defense / attack. If Warriors put together some kind of effort they could roll Souths.
Some great looking games to have a play on this weekend.

That Guy · 04-10-12, 06:06 AM

Updated Round 6 ended: NRL Season 2012 31-27 +7.45 units

The dogs were barking this weekend with some surprise results and upsets. This is to be expected after 4 rounds of positive unit results, goes to show money management is vital to withstanding the ups / downs. Especially as we head towards State of Origin where things go a bit crazy. The strong leans this week saved what would have otherwise been a rough week. Taking this into account I will scrutinise totals plays a little more going forward - holding off on plays which do not give a sufficient buffer between projected points and the number on the books. This means there may not be plays on some games going forward, hopefully eliminating coin toss totals and blow outs.
Have a good week and good luck with your plays in the coming round.