Thatguy's NRL Plays

That Guy · 03-20-12, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by benrama

Smoking mate, smoking! Under was never in doubt, I would have played it too but laying off those totals for the time being.

Forget about my modelling ideas, just keep using yours!

Cheers mate - appreciate the wrap!
Very interested to see what comes of the modeling thread

Considering a play on Rabbitohs / Broncos game. Looking at team timetables the Rabbitohs wil have several days in Perth to prepare. Broncos fly out Friday morning for a game that night. Just under 6hrs in the air and a 3hr time zone change... May benefit the Rabbitohs?! Broncs looked jet lagged last time they played in Perth and wondering what the fatigue factor might be this time around.

maroona · 03-22-12, 06:49 AM

Good luck this weekend mate

kingsr · 03-22-12, 08:53 AM

Broncos arrived in Perth tonight (thursday) at approx 7pm Perth time.

TBsp75 · 03-22-12, 03:44 PM

hey guys any thoughts on these matches?

Parramatta v Penrith
Souths v Brisbane
Warriors v Gold Goast
St GI v Manly

bettin on 10match rugby pool jackpot need some opinion from all of yall. cheers

That Guy · 03-23-12, 12:50 AM

NRL Season 2012 17-13 +3.40 units

Round 4

Play #1
Eels vs Panthers OVER 38.5 x1 1.90
The battle of the west has fast turned into the 'battle of the worst' and these two teams defence is about as leaky as the Titanic. Even if one team fixes their defensive worries I still think there will be points leaked. With Sandow in doubt and Luke Walsh's kicking game not switched on these teams should score easy metres and easy tries.
The total has been bouncing around - overnight it was 44.5 on TAB Sportsbet before hitting 42.5 and opening this afternoon on Sportsbet at 38.5. The former gives you an idea of what the total might hit and if you can get 38.5 this play is great value. The stats have been kind to these teams because of the 'points for' being low, which assumes they won't score many points. However, this assumes they will face the same defensive ability as Round 1 and 2 teams such as the Broncos or Bulldogs, which is not the case.
GL

Play #2
Rabbitohs vs Broncos OVER 40.5 x1 1.90
Amazed this over did not open up at 42 or 44 as was the case last year when these two teams clashed. This game looks the goods for lots of points and GI's move to fullback gives us added value for even more points. These two teams average OVER by a substantial margin in every dry game they've played and with perfect conditions forecast tonight this is a solid play. The stats between these two teams are dragged down by low figures in previous games (2x low 30's in past 2 years), but further digging reveals wet weather conditions and a 'grind out' battle of the forwards. This won't be the case tonight and expect to see both teams throw it around in a points shoot out. Broncos having Matt Gillett and Josh McGuire on the bench is pure strike power & added points late in the game when fatigue sets in.
I'm locking in this play 1x tonight GL

Sol · 03-23-12, 02:03 AM

Good stuff mate. Price on the Eels/Panthers game has dropped a bit.

angelo63 · 03-23-12, 02:04 AM

Originally posted by That Guy

NRL Season 2012 17-13 +3.40 units

Round 4

Play #1
Eels vs Panthers OVER 38.5 x1 1.90
The battle of the west has fast turned into the 'battle of the worst' and these two teams defence is about as leaky as the Titanic. Even if one team fixes their defensive worries I still think there will be points leaked. With Sandow in doubt and Luke Walsh's kicking game not switched on these teams should score easy metres and easy tries.
The total has been bouncing around - overnight it was 44.5 on TAB Sportsbet before hitting 42.5 and opening this afternoon on Sportsbet at 38.5. The former gives you an idea of what the total might hit and if you can get 38.5 this play is great value. The stats have been kind to these teams because of the 'points for' being low, which assumes they won't score many points. However, this assumes they will face the same defensive ability as Round 1 and 2 teams such as the Broncos or Bulldogs, which is not the case.
GL

Play #2
Rabbitohs vs Broncos OVER 40.5 x1 1.90
Amazed this over did not open up at 42 or 44 as was the case last year when these two teams clashed. This game looks the goods for lots of points and GI's move to fullback gives us added value for even more points. These two teams average OVER by a substantial margin in every dry game they've played and with perfect conditions forecast tonight this is a solid play. The stats between these two teams are dragged down by low figures in previous games (2x low 30's in past 2 years), but further digging reveals wet weather conditions and a 'grind out' battle of the forwards. This won't be the case tonight and expect to see both teams throw it around in a points shoot out. Broncos having Matt Gillett and Josh McGuire on the bench is pure strike power & added points late in the game when fatigue sets in.
I'm locking in this play 1x tonight GL

Good Luck mate,The travel should affect both teams and make for an entertaining game , with lots of points.

That Guy · 03-23-12, 02:52 AM

Added:

Play #3
Rabbitohs ML vs Broncos x 1 2.12
Have been holding out on this play but think that the Rabbitohs are in a great situational spot. They've lacked 'closing power' in tight games but I think last week will give them the boost of confidence they need. Last year they performed well against the Broncos in Perth and with no positional changes from last week they should be in a better position to put the nail in the coffin. Broncos were given a helping hand by the Knights last week and should have put on more points. Souths will be hungry for a win tonight while the Broncos seem to be just coasting.. this is the chance for one team to step up and I think it's the Rabbitohs.
GI at fullback is a game changer and more game time for Luke is a positive. At $2.12 its a good play for a game that should be very very close. Rabbitohs have had good preperation spending the majority of the week in Perth, whilst the Broncos flew in last night. However the fatigue factor should be evened out given the Broncos have had a week to prepare, whereas the Rabbits are backing up from Sunday.
The Rabbitohs have a good record in the past few years against the Broncos and held their own against the Storm. I'm rolling with this for 1x and think this will be a breakout game for the Rabbitohs who are eager to prove their worth.
GL

That Guy · 03-23-12, 08:31 AM

NRL Season 2012 18-15 +2.30 units

Round 4 1-2
Good result with the Panthers vs Eels game blowing out, no thanks to the Panthers providing the majority of the points.
Disappointing performance from the Rabbitohs in the second half after a first half of great pace / positive go forward. Seems to be re-occurring theme with the Rabbitohs and will re-assess plays on them based on 'breakout' predictions.
Roll on with some good looking plays on Super Saturday. GL

That Guy · 03-23-12, 09:55 PM

NRL Season 2012 18-15 +2.30 units
Updated Round 4: 1-2

Play #4
Warriors vs Titans OVER 36 1x 1.90
Warriors have been averaging 24pts per game and whilst the Titans have played horribly they should still manage to put some points on the board. The NZ side should be out to crush the Titans and prove a point after being win less so far at home. Weather should hold out this afternoon in Auckland and I don't think we'll see a repeat on the Titans last effort away from home where they defeat the Cowboys.
I have this one at 42pts so it looks like good value at a low 36pts for two teams that should throw it around a bit.
Locked in for 1x. GL

Play #5
Dragons vs Sea Eagles UNDER 36.5 1x 1.90
Despite both of these teams having high PPG figures they've both had some easy wins that make them look better on paper. Both of these teams will be around come September and I expect the winner to grind away the points. Manly's defense should be better around the ruck and the Dragons will need to be on their game to stop Cherry-Evans and Foran. I'm predicting a controlled game from both sides in dry conditions and a score of around 28pts total. Despite the low total I believe this is a solid play and we saw similar scores between these sides last year. GL

Play #6
Cowboys vs Sharks UNDER 42.5 1x 1.90
Had this game set for an OVER play but with rain and strong winds forecast tonight I think these two sides will settle down a little in attack. Both should be pretty confident after wins last week but the Sharks in ability to put points on the board still dogs them. I'm tipping this continues tonight but strong defense by the Sharks should keep the score down.
GL

Sol · 03-24-12, 06:51 PM

Solid 2-1. Bit unlucky i feel with the Warriors/Titans, even in wet conditions and all the errors the total had a good chance to go over.

Degenerate · 03-24-12, 07:58 PM

Thanks for the plays and write ups.

garygroundwork · 03-24-12, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by Sol

Solid 2-1. Bit unlucky i feel with the Warriors/Titans, even in wet conditions and all the errors the total had a good chance to go over.

agreed...and there was that try that was disallowed... unlucky

That Guy · 03-24-12, 08:41 PM

NRL Season 2012 20-16 +3.1 units
Updated Round 4: 3-3

Play #7
Storm -12.5 vs Roosters 1x 1.95

On the road and no time for a long writeup. Storm at home in dry conditions should be way too strong for the Roosters who have been lucky to get out of jail too often. No injuries for the Storm and model predicting a win by 18pts.
I'm playing this for 1x GL

That Guy · 03-24-12, 10:50 PM

Added:

Play #8
Bulldogs vs Knights UNDER 39.5 1x 1.95
Not much time for a spiel. To win this game defense will be key. The Knights concede an average of only 14pts and the Bulldogs only 12pts, this should be a tough match will both teams keeping it tight. The only downside is a potential Knights capitulation, but I don't think that happens today on a grand scale. Wayne Bennett has flagged defense as needing work at training and that's where the effort will lie.
I'm rolling with the UNDER for 1x. GL

rohan22no · 03-25-12, 01:15 AM

fantastic work today thatguy!

rohan22no · 03-25-12, 01:15 AM

Whats your thoughts on Tigers v Raiders?

That Guy · 03-25-12, 02:21 AM

NRL Season 2012 22-16 +5 units
Updated Round 4: 5-3

As predicted the Knights played a heavy defensive game against the dogs with the UNDER never in doubt. The Rooster's true form was also revealed by the Storm - was tossing up a 2 unit play and regretting that decision now.
One more game to finish off the round and hopefully nail a 6-3 weekend.
GL

angelo63 · 03-25-12, 02:27 AM

Great work mate, The Roosters are worse than the Eels imho and i know there are several personal issues at the club. A lot of young guys will get there chance this year and the heirachy understands this year is done but still want the "stars" to perform as they are getting paid big dollars anyway. SBW, Maloney and BRett Stewart will all be there next year and maybe Lussick. I like the Raiders at this point with the 7.5 start, The Tigers are not natural front runners and wont start to play good football until later in the season. The Raiders pack will prove a handful for the Tigers and i am not sure what the go with Ellis is.

That Guy · 03-25-12, 02:28 AM

Originally posted by rohan22no

Whats your thoughts on Tigers v Raiders?

Hey mate, form has been all over the shop for these two sides. If the Raiders are 'ON' they could easily secure an upset. Ferguson needs to step up - he's either pure gold or complete shit. If the Raiders forwards can step up then Campese could finish the job.. but have a feeling it's be the Tigers with Benji & Moltzen just needing to complete sets to win this match.
For me it's a coin flip and a no play at the moment on ML or line - but that could change. Looking at an OVER / UNDER play as we speak.
GL

kingsr · 03-25-12, 05:24 AM

Originally posted by angelo63

Great work mate, The Roosters are worse than the Eels imho and i know there are several personal issues at the club. A lot of young guys will get there chance this year and the heirachy understands this year is done but still want the "stars" to perform as they are getting paid big dollars anyway. SBW, Maloney and BRett Stewart will all be there next year and maybe Lussick. I like the Raiders at this point with the 7.5 start, The Tigers are not natural front runners and wont start to play good football until later in the season. The Raiders pack will prove a handful for the Tigers and i am not sure what the go with Ellis is.

Those 3 players to rooster next year? I Know Maloney is a done deal but the other 2 are done deals? Did u see the statement sbw made publicly a couple days ago in regard to playing NRL?

"I will only play rugby league if I'm the highest paid player in nrl, with a minimum of $800,000 per season. I will also be able to box during the rugby league season, and I will only sign for 1 year at a time."

After that statement, I am hard pressed to believe that any club will sign him. Fukn grub!

That Guy · 03-25-12, 05:40 AM

NRL Season 2012 22-16 +5 units
Updated Round 4: 5-3

Play #9
Tigers vs Raiders UNDER 42.5 1x 1.85
There is no doubt these two sides are out of favour at the moment. The books are predicting a big Tigers win but I don't think it happens that way. The Raiders are not giving up the points easily and should hold their own in defense. In their biggest defeat this year they let in 24 points against the Storm. The Tigers won't be able to manage that many points on a normal night and with Dugan out the Raiders will struggle as well. This game should be a battle of the forwards and if that happens we'll see a low scoring game, add to that the probability of rain tomorrow night and there is a case for a solid UNDER play. With the points set at 42.5 I'm rolling on the UNDER for 1x and expect solid defense from both sides after poor games last week for both teams.
GL

kingsr · 03-25-12, 06:27 AM

Hey nrl guy, where are u getting the game total from? Which book?

That Guy · 03-25-12, 06:33 AM

Originally posted by kingsr

Hey nrl guy, where are u getting the game total from? Which book?

Hey Kingsr,
Totals on Sportsbet. This weekend they've started posting them much earlier for some reason but the figures are bouncing around a bit.

kingsr · 03-25-12, 07:16 AM

Wow that's very risky on their part posting them this early. Admittedly I don't use sportsbet for personal reasons which is why I didn't check their book. I checked most other aus books, Centrebet, luxbet, sportingbet, tab etc but found nothing. I really like that number and your reasoning. I gotta feeling it will be much lower by tomorrow (rain permitting) so I wanted to lock her in early. Oh well.

kingsr · 03-25-12, 08:46 PM

You're a theif nrl guy lol

The number is 40.5 at most books! I nights still take this number.

That Guy · 03-25-12, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by kingsr

You're a theif nrl guy lol

The number is 40.5 at most books! I nights still take this number.

Yeah has dropped to 41.5 at my book but odds up to 1.95

kingsr · 03-25-12, 11:35 PM

Still playable at 41.5? Weather looks ok for tonight, no rain forecast but might be very windy.

Bazz27 · 03-26-12, 12:46 AM

Hi All, & looking f/w to mon nite footy. c/bet now has total pts 41.5 @1.85. Need any advice u may have pls weather to ride my alive multis out tonite.
I got tigers -7.5pts for a 10/unit payday.
The other is Raiders +19.5 for a 5/unit return. So need a tigers 8 - 19pts winning spread?? Question is should i leave it or ?????? (Raiders are still +7.5)
Cheers....

kingsr · 03-26-12, 12:57 AM

Centrebet is 1.95 for under 41.5 and 1.85 for overs.

Bazz, I have tigers scoring 3-4 tries tonight and the raider scoring 1-2.

That said, I would hedge out here for a guaranteed profit either way. I think it will be a reasonably close game with a 22-12 type score line.

That Guy · 03-26-12, 02:44 AM

Still "chance of rain" of west and a few storms on the weather radar - but pure chance if any of that eventuates.
As above, Tigers have had trouble scoring points and haven't been the scoring machine they are known for. Raiders have been very effective in controlling points and defending.
I'd see this fall about 24-12 if the Raiders run away with it. If Tigers get the win you'd be looking at about 18-10 or similar going by the past models on Raiders defense. Should be enough points to get the win even if it turns out to be a dry night.
Good luck tonight guys

That Guy · 03-26-12, 04:52 AM

NRL Season 2012 22-17 +4 units
Tough beat with heavy favourites the Tigers not turning up for the match. UNDER looking good midway thru the second half before the defense completely fell apart for the Tigers.
Won't complain for being up over the weekend but looking forward to more strong plays this weekend. Have a good week everyone.

s2230011 · 03-26-12, 06:43 PM

ok I would like people's thoughts on this ... I got burned yesterday but I have an opinion and I would like to hear from you guys.

Yesterday say the play was under 41.5 or whichever line you got. At TAB it was under 40.5 with the half time mark set to 19.5 ... In my opinion the HT bet is so much better than FT. Yesterday I got burned by what I think were two ridiculous tries in the last 10 mins before HT. Not sure the Tigers try was a try at all ... AND I cant belive the Raiders forward didnt kick it out ... then the Raiders field a kick in their own twenty and run all the way for the last play of the half. To be fair it was an open game with alot of ball throw about but bad exectution.

Anyway ... for my theory there are a few points ... once that HT total hits 18, you need 4 scores. Of course there are penalties which some sides take .. but there is also missed conversions, With most kickers around the 75% mark, I dont think we see penalty shots at goal taken 25% of the games, so it all evens out. So parctically for you to loose this bet the total will be around 22 points (3 of 4 conversions kicked) .. there is great value there, cause under 18.5 is close to under 21.5, and an extra try needs to be scored.

Adding to this 1st halfs are generally lower scoring than second halves, the couple of times I checked that market of the highest scoring half, the second half is generally 1.60

The beauty of it if you loose the first half bet, you would generally loose it by a fair margin which means you will get a better line at HT for the under. Anyway, I havent looked at any numbers yet ... might have a look today but thoughts on this would be appreciated.

rohan22no · 03-27-12, 12:09 AM

Really interesting observation there S22,

Not that it matters, but agree the last few minutes of the first half last night were out of the ordinary. I cant believe the tigers try was awarded, and run away tries after fielding a kick are rare to say the least.

Re: The beauty of it if you loose the first half bet, you would generally loose it by a fair margin which means you will get a better line at HT for the under.

Are you saying here the thought is to bet on the over at half time and the under at full time?

s2230011 · 03-27-12, 12:49 AM

Not really .... this is all about when you want to take the Under and the half time total is set above 18. It means generally that teams will need to score 4 times (There might be a penalty kicked but also kickers only get about 75% of shots on goal, and I dont think you get teams shooting for goal over 25% of the time so it evens out). Based on that, it means that for you to loose your Under 18.5 bet, the teams will generally need to score 4 times ... if that occurs the score will be upto about 22 points. So I say there is better value to bet the Under 18.5 at Hlaftime than the 37.5 at FT for starters, and if you loose the HT bet, then the adjusted Over under total will be something around (19+22) 41.5, so you will be getting a much larger number at HT if you still think the under is good.

For example, I was on Cronulla +3.5 at HT and the Under, the under got blown by the back to back tries in the last 5 mins by Sharks, the toal for the game was 42.5, and the HT total was set 20.5. That last try stuffed my total, because the 4th try was scored. But because the total was 24 the OVer Under at HT and was set to 46.5 ... so I took it again at a larger amount.

But this is all if you dont hit .. I feel HT is a stronger bet and that if it misses it will miss by a fair margin 4 or 6 points, hence you will get a great under line at FT if you feel it was unlucky to loose the first one.

This is based on a gut feeling not stats yet, just wanted to know if anyone had that feeling too