nbl

[Rustyglobes]

Townsville seems to be the public play tonight which scares me a bit, but I will be rolling with the public love because the crocs should be motivated enough to try and seal a play off spot!

Melbourne is the in form team of the comp winning 7 of its last 9 but the blaze havent lost 3 in a row all season and definately havent lost 2 back to back games on their home court. I will just play the over on this game and hope for a shootout, picking a side in this one is like trying to choose out of Jessica Alba or Megan Fox.... You just CANT DO IT!

Good luck to everyone tonight

[GroundnPound]

@ Domestic my initial reaction was no play but i lost on GSW tonight, so i kind of am getting my losses back with the Townsville game. Sounds bad, but I kind of believe in Townsville, maybe even 10+.

@ Papsmear I kind of was liking Melbourne because it is sudden death for them if they lose they are done, and if there going to lose and not make the semi's it will be in there last two games not now, they got momentum they have to win, they have no choice, adrenaline is running and they might just get another win. But i feel Townsville is a more confident pick, but its gambling you just never know.

@ Rusty Globes. Thats is only thing scaring me with Townsville game that it is a public pick and the line is only -1.5. I wish line could move to like -4.5 or something and make me feel better. Townsville at home would be favoured by nearly double digits in this game.

[GroundnPound]

Townsville -1.5 @ Adelaide

As much as I am trying to think of any way Adelaide can win this game, I can't see anything they have that Townsville doesn't have even if Gilchrist was playing I would still pick Townsville. Can the home court be enough for Adelaide me thinks not.

[Rustyglobes]

Guys after crunching the numbers for the blazers vs tigers game I am definately playing the OVER. I feel the total should be somewhere near 180'sh so take 173.5 and enjoy the game. All my numbers point to at at least one of these teams scoring in the 90's and it being a close game. And if you were wondering what side i was leaning after crunching the numbers it would be the Tigers but I am not touching that with a 40 foot pole, wayyyyyy to close this game will go down to the wire!

Maybe even OT

[PAPSMEAR]

i just don't like the way that Adelaide have been having these 2nd half melt downs all season. they lack mental toughness IMO. I really like townsville tonight. no surprise to see this be a +10 job

[aunty jack]

t'ville -1.5 does seem very enticing, given the respective season the crocs and the 36ers have had.

i suppose we shouldn't look a gift horse in the mouth, as the saying goes.

i'm in.

good luck all

[hels]

i know the game has started so my pic could 'be forged' but i took the crocs at -139 for 4 units earlier today....
and on the GC game over 173.5 for 2 units.

Both big plays as typically I either play 1 unit or 0.5 unit (1 unit = 5% of my BR)

[PAPSMEAR]

we believe you Hels

[PAPSMEAR]

1.15 left on the dial and crocs down a point. choke 36 ers

[PAPSMEAR]

46 sec left now up by 3

[PAPSMEAR]

now up by 1. nailbiter. choke adelaide like you have all year

[PAPSMEAR]

i think they've won by a point. waiting final result.

[PAPSMEAR]

boo yeah 88-87 to the crocs

[PAPSMEAR]

just realised that those who took the spread lost by a half point. commiserations to all that did. as you've probably guessed I wasn't greedy for once in my life and played the ML at $1.75

[PAPSMEAR]

now for the Melbourne dog

all tied up at 76 all with 5 on the dial. c'mon tigers give me the double

[hedgejob]

What a fuked up day, lose A-League bet with 1 min left and now this by 1 point.

[PAPSMEAR]

tiges 4 in front with 2 left on the timepiece

[PAPSMEAR]

tijes gettin the jitters. 1 in front 90 secs left

[PAPSMEAR]

friggin chokers

[PAPSMEAR]

OT by the look of things

[Rustyglobes]

Guys after crunching the numbers for the blazers vs tigers game I am definately playing the OVER. I feel the total should be somewhere near 180'sh so take 173.5 and enjoy the game. All my numbers point to at at least one of these teams scoring in the 90's and it being a close game. And if you were wondering what side i was leaning after crunching the numbers it would be the Tigers but I am not touching that with a 40 foot pole, wayyyyyy to close this game will go down to the wire!

Maybe even OT

WOW I wish I could predict games like this all the time, I would be a rich man if this was the case....

Oh and I also wish there was a book that played NBL draw options.... DOH!!!!

[hels]

for christ sakes i'm glad that townsville won but i feel awful for everyone taking the line at -1.5 for them. I learned the last time I saw a -1.5 line in the nbl to play the ML as I got screwed like a champ in that..... i'm sure everyone remembers the story i told and then retold (i think pages 4 and 7 or around those) so that's why i just took the crocs moneyline and paid the extra juice.

I swear there has to be something weird in the nbl. I don't know how many 1.5 lines there were this year, but for the only 2 i remember to end with the favoured team winning by one point is something fishy. I know that's so comspiracy but still.... how many 1 point basketball games are there nowadays? Just seems weird, that's all. I feel good winning, but feel like shit to all those who took -1.5 as i know the feeling and don't wish it upon anyone.

[PAPSMEAR]

good call. Tiges are cooked by the look of things. 1-1 for me on the night but played 2 units on the Crocs with 1 on Melbourne so won a little something

[PAPSMEAR]

for christ sakes i'm glad that townsville won but i feel awful for everyone taking the line at -1.5 for them. I learned the last time I saw a -1.5 line in the nbl to play the ML as I got screwed like a champ in that..... i'm sure everyone remembers the story i told and then retold (i think pages 4 and 7 or around those) so that's why i just took the crocs moneyline and paid the extra juice.

I swear there has to be something weird in the nbl. I don't know how many 1.5 lines there were this year, but for the only 2 i remember to end with the favoured team winning by one point is something fishy. I know that's so comspiracy but still.... how many 1 point basketball games are there nowadays? Just seems weird, that's all. I feel good winning, but feel like shit to all those who took -1.5 as i know the feeling and don't wish it upon anyone.

took the words right out of my mouth. No value in giving away 1.5 for a differential of 16 or so cents IMO. Better to be safe than sorry. Any number 2.5 or less I take the ML as a general rule

[PAPSMEAR]

not sure about you guys but my success rate in OT must be around 25%. How do you get on. My record is abysmal

[hels]

I hadn't read all the replies in this thread til after I posted and I gotta say I'm glad you took the ML Paps and to Hedge, shit man it's rough you would have rather seen them lose by 1 rather than win by 1. I know you got some solid game man and keep up your picks cuz i definitely listen to them.

and I took the games off cuz i got both but I hope the Tigs win for you Paps!!!!!

[aunty jack]

hels: as the yanks would say 'the hook is a biatch'. you make some interesting observations in post #372. that's why i joined a forum like this - to learn from the experiences of others... and to share the rollercoaster ride that is sports betting.

although my t'ville line bet went down the crapper, i took out a little bit of insurance. i'm a bit of a sucker for the occasional multi-bet (yes, i know it's frowned upon by many).

t'ville moneyline + melb/coast over + indy line in the superbowl will pay a tidy 6.24 if the colts get up.

fingers crossed. g'nite all.

[GroundnPound]

Eh, that was bullshit brings my nbl record to like 13-4 but i put lots of units on Townsville.. Games like this make me think sports are fixed. When I saw the turnover with 24 seconds to go I knew Adelaide would hold for the last shot if there was even 30 seconds to go would of got free throws. I will bounce back

[GroundnPound]

Cairns are giving +2.5 vs the league leading Perth. Initial reaction is Perth going to romp this shite. My early lean is Cairns +2.5. I think Cairns will win straight up but just take the points for assurance. Another thing is I think the line will go up to +3.5 so don't bet until close to tip off.

I will officialise my play soon.

Line is already up to +3. Keep letting the public get this line up.

[hedgejob]

+3.5 at Pinny

[GroundnPound]

I am going to deposit some money into My pinnacle account but I have to head down to the bank to do so. My current sports book I use still has it at +3 I akmm going to wait it out. What are you guys playing.

[aunty jack]

hey g-p: i'm finding it a bit tough to get a handle on this game, so i might sit it out.

i see you had a good win on oklahoma. hope your good luck + good capping continues tonite.

cheers

[Dr.Gonzo]

Under 83 - 1st 1/2 total

1.90 (centrebet)

[Wade Dwayne]

Under 83 - 1st 1/2 total

1.90 (centrebet)

its down to 81 now so over looks the play must be alot on the under. Also liking townsville purely due to the home field dominance in the NBL.
Going big aswell. looking recoup loses from the NBA today.

[Durrrr]

I'm liking Wild Cats ML, I knew people who post here would be all over Cairns, but I'm still going on WC small.