nbl

[WillC]

Some interesting games on New years eve so hopefully we can end the year off well.

Cairns v Melbourne: Such a big game for both teams, going to go with the under 162.5

[sportscash]

Im in for tonights game.Nz -1.5 hope im right

[Rustyglobes]

i'm on the over 164

[GroundnPound]

I am going to the game now I laid $50 on Wollongong -1.5 Line.
I am gonna cash its all about Wollongong tonight.

[hels]

who the hell is melbourne favoured by 5.5 over wollongong tonight????
this makes no sense at all to me as the hawks should be the far superior team and i would expect them to be favoured by 5.5

for this reason I have no choice but to bet on the tigers-5.5 as well it should be over 167.5 but i'm going to take the under as i've learned with nbl to go against anything that makes sense.

[WillC]

Crosswell out for the tigers will hurt them. I can't resist and went Hawks

underdogs lost against the spread big last time but I reckon we'll see something different tonight.

Hawks +5.5
Blaze +4.5
Crocs/Blaze Under 172.5

[hedgejob]

Melb playmaker and co-captain Nathan Crosswell is out injured. Hawks lost their star import McKee for rest of season and haven't been scoring without him. I'm on the U too. BOL.

[hedgejob]

Sportingbet had Hawks +6.5

[hedgejob]

I'm liking Perth v NZ O165.5

[hels]

I'm trying to figure out the CG/Townsville game right now and am having some thoughts but would like to hear what you guys think.

The Blaze are playing b2b as they're in cairns tomoro, they're road record is 2-6 and Crocs are solid at home. The Crocs lost the last game but won the first 2 this season against the Blaze. The Blaze have also had lots of rest with I think only 3 games in the last 3 weeks.

I know those are just the hard facts and aren't saying anything groundbreaking but I truly like the Crocs in this spot. Once again I believe the line should be closer to even with neither side being an overwhelming favourite. WillC mentioned how big the dogs lost last week and when looking at the stats I couldn't believe they were 10.5 point dogs so obv I took them and got my ass whiped pretty badly.

I'm leaning towards the Crocs right now, what does everyone else think?

[hels]

as well I'm thinking Over 172.5

[hedgejob]

Both very in-form teams and it should be a tight game. Blaze +4.5 I think.

[hels]

crocs-4.5 and O172.5 booked at 1 unit each

[hels]

4-0 last night which is an extreme rarity for nbl betting.... tonight I'm confused as usual with the lines and am trying to build up the courage to take the blaze. everything tells me that they should get their asses kicked tonight but how can i bet against the abstract odds and lines here??? last night i go against all proper reasoning and have a great capping night.

The Blaze were really weak last night and had to travel to Cairns today with minimal preparation and game focus after their loss last night. Pinnacle's opening line was GC-1.5 and it has already dropped to GC-1.0 at +102 so it will likely go down to ML only as everyone and their brother will be betting Cairns.

So do I go against everything I reason and play GC?

[sportscash]

yeah not in this but im leaning Gc slightly gl

[GroundnPound]

Tough game to pick I reckon it is going to be a blowout either way.

[GroundnPound]

I just ran through the fixture list and Gold Coast has only lost one game back to back all season. Take that for what it is worth but it is making me head over to Gold Coast for my bet. Though I am scared that they might be flat after the back to back...

I looked through all the stats this season there has been 7 back to back games all up.
The statistics were

LL - 3 Times
LW- 3 Times
WL - 1 Times

With them stats one of the top two is going to happen once again nothing conclusive.

[hels]

I am thinking Gold Coast will somehow make something happen tonight and pull out the victory. I expect that the public is on Cairns and I really can't understand how they are still dogs..... if it seems too good then go the other way right?

The other thing I'm thinking about is taking the Over (160 at Pinnacle... TAB is still at 162.5). Last 3 games:
69-68
80-63
83-66

The Under looks so definite that how the hell can they even reach 150 points let alone 160????? The line at Pinnacle opened at 161.5 and now at 160 -109. I would expect the majority of the public to be on the Under and is still hitting the Under hard. I think tonight's game will be a close one that will have 10-15 points scored in the final minute and a half.

[hels]

I just ran through the fixture list and Gold Coast has only lost one game back to back all season. Take that for what it is worth but it is making me head over to Gold Coast for my bet. Though I am scared that they might be flat after the back to back... I looked through all the stats this season there has been 7 back to back games all up. The statistics were LL - 3 Times LW- 3 Times WL - 1 Times With them stats one of the top two is going to happen once again nothing conclusive.

It's interesting to note that out of the 7 games the visitors have lost 6 of them when they have to play again the next night.

I almost think that the Gold Coast will start off slow but finish strong and pull out a 1 or 2 point victory in the final minute. I made a post in this thread before about how I put in a bet for what I originally thought was Wollongong+1.5.... somehow I was retarded and put it on the favs at -1.5.... so I said, "oh shit, now I gotta take the Hawks x2" since I figured they wouldn't lose by 1 I just took the Wollongong ML. So I had these 2 bets
Favs-1.5 x1
Hawks ML x2

Obviously the Hawks lost by 1 and I lost everything.... I expect something similar here.

[hels]

booked Blaze-1.0 and U160.5

I couldn't pull the Over as there's nothing at all indicating this game going over.... I honestly feel like I'll kick myself for playing the Under, but I know it's the correct play here.

BOL gentlemen

[GroundnPound]

It's interesting to note that out of the 7 games the visitors have lost 6 of them when they have to play again the next night.

I almost think that the Gold Coast will start off slow but finish strong and pull out a 1 or 2 point victory in the final minute. I made a post in this thread before about how I put in a bet for what I originally thought was Wollongong+1.5.... somehow I was retarded and put it on the favs at -1.5.... so I said, "oh shit, now I gotta take the Hawks x2" since I figured they wouldn't lose by 1 I just took the Wollongong ML. So I had these 2 bets
Favs-1.5 x1
Hawks ML x2



Obviously the Hawks lost by 1 and I lost everything.... I expect something similar here.

Hey man I feel you, I had parlay i put only 2 ****ing dollars on for a $970 return man and Hawks ML was my last leg. And they lost by one and I was kicking myself I didn't take the + 1.5 I took Gold Coast -1.5 tonight hopefully I don't kick myself again.

Game is close now at 23-20

booked Blaze-1.0 and U160.5

I couldn't pull the Over as there's nothing at all indicating this game going over.... I honestly feel like I'll kick myself for playing the Under, but I know it's the correct play here.

BOL gentlemen

They are the picks I would of made instead I made just one the -1.5 I hope Blaze don't get tired and fade away .

[Domestic]

These two teams sure know how to miss free throws, this is like High School standard.

[GroundnPound]

Cairns is 4/13 and Gold Coast is relatively good at 11/14.

[hedgejob]

Who's in for U168.5 Adelaide v Perth

[hels]

I've got the U168 as well hedgejob as I think Perth will be trying to slow the pace and keep control.
All the talk about them playing 2 nights ago and being tired isn't influencing my decision either. I just believe that it will be a slower, more methodical, lots of jumpshots, few fouls type of game...
I've also got Perth ML at +118

Hopefully can continue on my current 6-0 NBL run

[hels]

These two teams sure know how to miss free throws, this is like High School standard.

make that girls High School standard.

I am actually quite appalled by how bad freethrows were last night.

[hedgejob]

Unders in this league is the gift that keeps on giving.

[hedgejob]

BTW nice hit on the ML hels.

[beefcake]

Hels,good job on the NBL,ive dabbled a bit myself in the past,but yes unders in this league for a long time have been the way to go.How is the new 10 min quarters affecting them this year?

[hels]

BTW nice hit on the ML hels.

thanks man... somehow riding an 8-0 streak right now... hope it persists!

Tonight I'm leaning on Adelaide-8 and U157 but these are not official.... probs will make a small play but won't count this to the current 8-0 run no matter what the outcome.

[hels]

Hels,good job on the NBL,ive dabbled a bit myself in the past,but yes unders in this league for a long time have been the way to go.How is the new 10 min quarters affecting them this year?

I think the 10 min quarters are actually causing teams to go out and play harder from the very start. They seem so much shorter than the 12 min NBA quarters where you rarely get a turnover/foul in the opening minutes of the 1st/3rd quarters.

[Domestic]

I think I am going to take the under 158.5 (Sportingbet) tonight.

[hedgejob]

I like Adelaide -8 too, Cairns are crap on the road. Avg 68 last 4 away games. Sixers should put on at least 80.

[Domestic]

Under looked good early then a barrage of threes...duh

[GroundnPound]

I am putting my hard earned $100 on Tigers + 6.5. As much as I like Bruton & Penneys skills I think without Abercrombie there is a good chance they could lose at home again. Either way I don't see them blowing the Tigers out.

The Tigers have two wins in a row and with Worthington, Hodge and co, I think the Tigers keep this close.