MiddleMan's AFL thread

[MiddleMan]

I am interested in taking this further.
There was someone on Alan Jones a few weeks ago talking about the same thing.
The NT government is basically doing nothing to discourage the practice and it is a form of discrimination.

Would any of you guys be willing to document your issues and forward a petition?
I'm sure AJ would like to take the fight the the NT govt and the online bookies domiciled there.

I would be interested if there was enough support to bring attention. There should be a legislation against it, enough said.

There was a story on Today Tonight late last year in regards to it.

[aussieH]

I cant find the article. I read it off a tweet and cannot find the tweet. It was a good article in a main paper. It may have been in the business section.

They were basically saying that sports books were companies and do everything to stop dealing with punters that win. Even when the punters were betting in store they were actively managing the stores to limit these guys abilities. I am obviously a punter but they are only interested in a one sided contest against the average punter.

[micase]

Here is the Alan Jones interview.

http://www.2gb.com/article/alan-jones-%E2%80%93-richard-irvine#.U1SaJ_mSx8E

It is an interesting topic> I am a recreational punter, I put in the time to find bets I like each week but in no way am I able to make a living out of this. Been banned from 2 bookmakers and am being severely limited by several sportsbooks.

I also don't go for the whole bleeding heart sob stories from professional punters but having different limits on bets for different types of players is just wrong. I should be able to bet the exact same amount on any market as the losing punters that do not get limited.

[aussieH]

Can crameri win the Coleman. 101 on tab. 26 T sportsbet. Going to put 20 on him. Coleman medalist will kick around 60 goals for the year and he is a chance. He should at least open a few hedge options for later in the year if he can average 2to 3a game

[thecattery12]

Can't seeing him winning it to be honest but $101 does seem like a fair price.

[aylukeay]

Betstar might be the weakest/worst coporate at restricting bets that i have encountered.

[MiddleMan]

$30 jonathan brown to kick three or more goals @ $3.50 w sportsbet.

$75 profit

$100 brisbane +28.5 w topsport @ $2
$100 richmond -27.5 w betstar @ $2

break even

$205.50 nick dal santo to get under 26.5 disposals at $1.95 w centrebet
$215 nick dal santo to get "25 disposals or more" at $1.89 w sportsbet

$406.35 return if he gets over 26.5 disposals ($14.15 loss)
$400.73 return if he gets fewer than 25 disposals ($19.77 loss)
$386.58 profit if he gets 25 or 26 disposals.

$100 on danyle pearce over 22.5 disposals @ $1.90 w centrebet
$100 on danyle pearce under 24.5 disposals @ $1.87 w sportsbet

$19.77 loss
$13 loss

$50 north melbourne win @ $2.50 w tom
$100 north melbourne +1.5 @ $2 w betstar
$150 collingwood +1.5 @ $2 w topsport

$100 west coast -2.0 @ $2 w betstar
$100 port adelaide +3.5 @ $2 w topsport

break even

$200 freo -6.5 @ $2 w topsport
$200 sydney +9.5 @ $2 w pinny

i took the topsport line earlier in the week, hence the line differential.

break even

$100 josh j kennedy to get under 28.5 disposals @ $1.80 with sportsbet. He has never gone over this in his career and i have a feeling he will line up at ff tonight.

void

$30 josh kennedy most goals @ $4 w sportsbet

$100 st. Kilda +39.5 @ $2
$100 essendon -38.5 @ $2
$30 nick riewoldt most goals @ $4 w sportsbet

$30 loss
break even
$90 profit

$200 gws +45.5 @ $2 w topsport
$100 adel -43.5 @ $2 w betstar
$100 adel -45.5 @ $2.10 w sportsbet

$100 melb +19.0 @ $2 w betstar
$100 gcs -17.5 @ $2 w topsport

$10 profit
break even

$30 crameri most goals @ $10 w tab
$30 cameron most goals @ $5 w sportsbet

$60 loss

$440 sam mitchell to get "30 or more" disposals @ $2.40 w sportsbet
$492.79 sam mitchell to get under 29.5 disposals @ $1.90 w centrebet
$3.51 profit if he gets under 29.5 disposals
$123.21 profit if he gets over 29.5 disposals

$3.51 profit

$30 selwood most disposals (lewis, burgoyne, hill, birchall, mitchell, bartel, stokes, duncan, johnson, selwood) @ $6.50 w unibet

$30 loss

[MiddleMan]

$25.74 profit for the week
$226.15 up for the year

[MiddleMan]

Betstar might be the weakest/worst coporate at restricting bets that i have encountered.

Provide me with some examples. They are very generous that they leave up futures markets. I have encountered them only partially accepting bets, but I reckon they're brilliant cause they don't have to leave up futures. They're the only agency I know that does this without updating odds. I.E. A couple of weeks ago, they were the only agency to leave their Champions League futures up during the Semi Final draw, and when Athletico Madrid were drawn to face Chelsea, Madrid remained $6 while Betfair had them at $5.10. I tried hitting them for $250, but they partially accepted for $100. I think that's more than fair. They deliberately leave futures open so attract punters to their agency. That's good business. It doesn't mean they have to accept full stakes.

Another example is when Chelsea beat Man City a couple of months ago. They left the EPL Title odds open to reflect the odds for the Title before the game started. Chelsea came into $2.25 and I got them at $4. They partially accepted for $100. I was really happy with that. It's in their terms and conditions.

Can crameri win the Coleman. 101 on tab. 26 T sportsbet. Going to put 20 on him. Coleman medalist will kick around 60 goals for the year and he is a chance. He should at least open a few hedge options for later in the year if he can average 2to 3a game

$101 is a fair price. Very unlikely he wins it.

[aylukeay]

within the last 3 days have had them accept $20 of a $50 bet and instantly change the odds.

Last night tried to bet $94 @ 3.60....0% of the bet accepted and the price wound straight into $3.10

yep. 0% accepted, bet completely rejected. to show how weak they are they did not even have the highest odds available on that selection. But it doesnt matter once they have you marked as a winner.

gutless who not only wont take a bet, will use your information to change a market.



Where you say "they are generous with leaving future markets open" is probably just laziness, but that is beside the point.

[MiddleMan]

within the last 3 days have had them accept $20 of a $50 bet and instantly change the odds.

Last night tried to bet $94 @ 3.60....0% of the bet accepted and the price wound straight into $3.10

yep. 0% accepted, bet completely rejected. to show how weak they are they did not even have the highest odds available on that selection. But it doesnt matter once they have you marked as a winner.

gutless who not only wont take a bet, will use your information to change a market.



Where you say "they are generous with leaving future markets open" is probably just laziness, but that is beside the point.

That's interesting. I have been so lucky not to have had that happen to me. Is this with sports betting, or racing?

They market themselves with "we leave futures open 24/7". You will always see them leave Brownlow and Rising Star odds open during a round, for example. They're the only ones who do it.

[MiddleMan]

$100 Collingwood to beat Essendon @ $2 w Sportingbet

[MustWinPlease]

$100 Collingwood to beat Essendon @ $2 w Sportingbet

how di you get those odds

[MiddleMan]

They have a special. It's found in "$2 favourites".

[TEAMSPORTS]

also bookmaker has $2 lines promotion max $100 essendon +7.5 for the middle?? thats what i went for

[MiddleMan]

$30 Sidebottom more disposals than Stanton @ $2.05 w Sportingbet
$30 Zaharakis more disposals than Lumumbabumba @ $2.00 w Sportingbet
$30 Dal Santo under 25.5 disposals @ $1.90 w Sportingbet

[MiddleMan]

$25 Dal Santo under 26.5 disposals @ $1.87 w Luxbet
$25 Cloke under 3.0 goals @ $1.80 w Luxbet
$20 Cloke over 2.5 goals @ $2.30 w Sportingbet
$25 J Kennedy under 30.5 disposals @ $1.87 w Luxbet
$25 J Kennedy over 28.5 disposals @ $1.95 w Sportingbet
$25 Jackson over 22.5 disposals @ $1.97 w Sportingbet
$25 Jackson under 24.5 disposals @ $1.87 w Luxbet


$100 Collingwood win @ $2 w Tom
$100 Essendon win @ $2.60 w Sportsbet (money back if player kicks 4+ goals)

[MiddleMan]

$100 Essendon +11.5 @ $2 w Topsport
$100 Collingwood -10.5 @ $2 w Betstar

[MiddleMan]

$30 Omeara to get more disposals than Kolodjashnij @ $1.95 w Unibet

[MiddleMan]

$100 Gold Coast -30.5 @ $2 w Betstar
$100 GWS +32.5 @ $2 w Topsport

[MiddleMan]

I'm gonna include this in this thread for the purpose of an "AFL" bet.

$130 Box Hill -60.5 @ $1.87 w TAB
$100 Coburg +70.5 @ $1.90 w Centrebet

-60.5 line for the Hawks appears a bit low so I have invested a bit more on that one.

[MiddleMan]

I was able to place a couple of live bets while a goal was about to be scored to make it value.

$100 West Coast -2.5 @ $2 w Unibet
$100 Carlton +7.5 @ $1.90 w Betstar

[aussieH]

Big comeback from the blues

[MiddleMan]

It was. I was close with my middle. Onto the next game. I've gone with three value plays. All are over $2 in what I would consider pretty much 50/50.

Cross is averaging 0.6 possessions more than Hannebery
Kennedy is averaging 0.2 possessions more than Jones
Combined, Kennedy and Cross are averaging 50.4 possessions.

$30 Josh Kennedy/Daniel Cross under 50.5 possessions combined @ $2.45 w Betstar
$30 Nathan Jones more disposals than Josh Kennedy @ $2.30 w Centrebet
$30 Daniel Cross more disposals than Daniel Hannebery @ $2.50 w Centrebet

[MiddleMan]

$100 Sydney -39.5 @ $2 w Betstar
$100 Melbourne +40.5 @ $2 w Topsport

[MiddleMan]

$100 Bulldogs +9.5 @ $2 w Topsport
$100 Adelaide -8.5 @ $2 w Betstar


$100 Richmond +32.5 @ $2 w Topsport
$100 Hawthorn -31.5 @ $2 w Betstar

[beeeej12]

$100 Bulldogs +9.5 @ $2 w Topsport
$100 Adelaide -8.5 @ $2 w Betstar

BOOM! Cash that middle in

[therealdealau]

Great hit on that Adelaide Middle.

[MiddleMan]

Thanks guys.

It saved me from a disappointing week. I think I ended up in front because of that. I'll work out my results later.

[aussieH]

Jeremy Cameron is rumoured to be out for 4 weeks. Not yet reflected in Coleman betting

[MiddleMan]

$30 Sidebottom more disposals than Stanton @ $2.05 w Sportingbet
$30 Zaharakis more disposals than Lumumbabumba @ $2.00 w Sportingbet
$30 Dal Santo under 25.5 disposals @ $1.90 w Sportingbet

$90 LOSS

$25 Dal Santo under 26.5 disposals @ $1.87 w Luxbet
$25 Cloke under 3.0 goals @ $1.80 w Luxbet
$20 Cloke over 2.5 goals @ $2.30 w Sportingbet
$25 J Kennedy under 30.5 disposals @ $1.87 w Luxbet
$25 J Kennedy over 28.5 disposals @ $1.95 w Sportingbet
$25 Jackson over 22.5 disposals @ $1.97 w Sportingbet
$25 Jackson under 24.5 disposals @ $1.87 w Luxbet
$100 Collingwood win @ $2 w Tom
$100 Essendon win @ $2.60 w Sportsbet (money back if player kicks 4+ goals)

$25 LOSS
BREAK EVEN
$3.25 LOSS
$0.75 LOSS
$100 PROFIT

$100 Essendon +11.5 @ $2 w Topsport
$100 Collingwood -10.5 @ $2 w Betstar

BREAK EVEN

$30 Omeara to get more disposals than Kolodjashnij @ $1.95 w Unibet

$28.50 PROFIT
At one stage here, Kolodjashnij led 18-3 during the second quarter.

$100 Gold Coast -30.5 @ $2 w Betstar
$100 GWS +32.5 @ $2 w Topsport

BREAK EVEN

$130 Box Hill -60.5 @ $1.87 w TAB
$100 Coburg +70.5 @ $1.90 w Centrebet

$40 LOSS
Despite being 76 points up at 3/4 time, Box Hill gave up five goals to one in the final term to only win by 52 points.

$100 West Coast -2.5 @ $2 w Unibet
$100 Carlton +7.5 @ $1.90 w Betstar

$10 LOSS

$30 Josh Kennedy/Daniel Cross under 50.5 possessions combined @ $2.45 w Betstar
$30 Nathan Jones more disposals than Josh Kennedy @ $2.30 w Centrebet
$30 Daniel Cross more disposals than Daniel Hannebery @ $2.50 w Centrebet

$30 LOSS
$39 PROFIT
$30 LOSS

$100 Sydney -39.5 @ $2 w Betstar
$100 Melbourne +40.5 @ $2 w Topsport

BREAK EVEN

$100 Bulldogs +9.5 @ $2 w Topsport
$100 Adelaide -8.5 @ $2 w Betstar

$100 Richmond +32.5 @ $2 w Topsport
$100 Hawthorn -31.5 @ $2 w Betstar

$200 PROFIT
BREAK EVEN

[MiddleMan]

$138.50 profit for round six
$364.65 profit for the year

[MiddleMan]

$100 Carlton +26.5 @ $2 w Topsport
$100 Collingwood -24.5 @ $2 w Betstar

[MiddleMan]

$201.10 GWS +48.5 @ $1.99 w Pinny
$200 Port Adel -46.5 @ $2 w Topsport


$100 Hawthorn -53.5 @ $2 w Betstar
$100 St. Kilda +55.5 @ $2 w Topsport

[MiddleMan]

$30 Adelaide, Hawthorn, Port all to win by over 39.5 pts @ $4.15 w Betstar