MiddleMan's AFL thread

[MiddleMan]

Looking at some futures markets:

Luxbet had the Bulldogs' season wins total at 5.5 games. The market was suspended and then changed to 8.5. Good luck (more like well done) to those who managed to get on.

Another good value selection with Luxbet appears to be St. Kilda @ $1.87 to win fewer than 6.0 games. Most of the other books have this around 4-4.5.

I wouldn't invest too heavily in futures, but the $1.96 on offer with Betstar on Gold Coast to win more than 8.5 games looks like good value to me.

[Coopertrooper]

Good luck for the year mate. The saints bet looks enticing. The Gold Coast may still have a bad patch, but them making the 8 is a big possibility, so they have to be a chance of winning as many as 12-13 games.

[MiddleMan]

Thanks, Cooper.

I am taking a big risk for my first bet of the year, but it could pay off big time.

$250 on Hawthorn -37.5 @ $1.90.

That's an incomplete bet. I could easily lose $250, but I don't think I will, because I plan on taking a live bet on Brisbane at +46.5 or higher to create a middling bet. The way I won't lose $250 is if Hawthorn finds themselves two goals up early, or if Brisbane doesn't get out to a +46.5 line or greater at any stage.

My theory is I expect Brisbane to run the game out better, due to having had a longer preseason. We saw this last night with Collingwood performing better than Geelong in the second half (Collingwood only finished the season two weeks earlier than Geelong, though).

So if Hawthorn can find themselves two goals up early, then I'm pulling the trigger.

I'd expect Hawthorn to be about five goals up at Half Time, and we'll see whether my theory rings true about Brisbane having a better second half than what they will have in the first half.

It would be too much of a risk for me to wait until half time to back Brisbane at the +, due to only anticipating the half time lead for the Hawks will be about five goals.

[MiddleMan]

$400 on Brisbane +42.5 @ $1.90 w Topsport
$375 on Hawthorn -39.5 @ $2.00 w Unibet

If Hawthorn wins by more than 42.5 points, I lose $25
If Brisbane wins, it's a draw, or Hawthorn wins by fewer than 39.5 points, I lose $15
If Hawthorn wins by 40, 41 or 42 points, I win $735

I'm getting effective odds of $36.75.

[MiddleMan]

Thanks, Cooper.

I am taking a big risk for my first bet of the year, but it could pay off big time.

$250 on Hawthorn -37.5 @ $1.90.

That's an incomplete bet. I could easily lose $250, but I don't think I will, because I plan on taking a live bet on Brisbane at +46.5 or higher to create a middling bet. The way I won't lose $250 is if Hawthorn finds themselves two goals up early, or if Brisbane doesn't get out to a +46.5 line or greater at any stage.

My theory is I expect Brisbane to run the game out better, due to having had a longer preseason. We saw this last night with Collingwood performing better than Geelong in the second half (Collingwood only finished the season two weeks earlier than Geelong, though).

So if Hawthorn can find themselves two goals up early, then I'm pulling the trigger.

I'd expect Hawthorn to be about five goals up at Half Time, and we'll see whether my theory rings true about Brisbane having a better second half than what they will have in the first half.

It would be too much of a risk for me to wait until half time to back Brisbane at the +, due to only anticipating the half time lead for the Hawks will be about five goals.

Total of four bets:

$250 on Hawthorn -37.5 @ $1.90
$375 on Hawthorn -39.5 @ $2.00
$400 on Brisbane +42.5 @ $1.90
$220 on Brisbane +57.5 @ $1.90
Total spend: $1245

If Hawthorns wins by more than 57.5 points, I lose $20
If Brisbane wins, it's a draw, or Hawthorn wins by fewer than 37.5 points, I lose $67
If Hawthorn wins by 38 or 39 points, I win $408
If Hawthorn wins by 43-57 points, I win $398
If Hawthorn wins by 40, 41 or 42 points, I win $1158

[Coopertrooper]

Very nice bets, pity the lions played so badly. That could have been a very nice result on another day.

[MiddleMan]

YTD: $20 down

$629.91 on Adelaide -12.5 @ $2.10 w Unibet = $1322 RETURN
$350 on Adelaide -15.5 @ $2.20 w Ladbrokes = $770 RETURN
$680 on Port Adelaide +16.5 @ $2 w Betstar = $1360 RETURN
$350 on Port Adelaide +17.5 @ $1.96 w Pinnacle = $686 RETURN
$2009.91 spent

If Port Adelaide wins, Adelaide wins by fewer than thirteen points, or it's a draw = $36.09 profit
If Adelaide wins by more than 17.5 points = $82.09 profit
If Adelaide wins by 13, 14 or 15 points = $1358.09 profit
If Adelaide wins by 16 points = $2128.09 profit

If Adelaide wins by 17 points = $768.09 profit

[Coopertrooper]

Very nice work. Hope you get a hit here, good luck.

[thecattery12]

Luxbet only let me bet $50 on that Bulldogs win line lol. My Luxbet account is pretty much useless now since I'm limited to under $100 bets and banned from their promos

[MiddleMan]

$62.09 up for the year.

$29.62 on Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.35 with Sportsbet (max bet allowed).

[MiddleMan]

$30 on any other Richmond player to score first goal.

[thecattery12]

Read somewhere that Ben Reid was $41 to score the 1st

[MiddleMan]

$99.22 up.

$30 on St. Kilda -9.5 @ $1.88 w Betstar

[MiddleMan]

$69.22 up.

$100 on Sydney -43.5 @ $2
$100 on GWS +44.5 @ $2

[MiddleMan]

$60 on Stanton to get more disposals than Harvey @ $1.87 w Ladbrokes

$200 Essendon +14.5 @ $2
$200 North Melbourne -12.0 @ $1.965

[MiddleMan]

$9.22 up

$300 on Boyd under 115.5 Dream Team points @ $1.87
$250 on Boyd over 106.5 Dream Team points @ $2.05
UNDER 106.5 POINTS = $11 profit
OVER 115.5 POINTS = $37.50 loss
107-115 POINTS = $523.50 profit

$30 Tory Dickson most goals @ $34

[MiddleMan]

I placed this the other day and I forgot to post it.

Back QLD at $6 on Betstar to be the winning state of the Brownlow Medal winner for $200
Lay Ablett at $6 for $200 on Betfair to win the Brownlow

If Ablett wins the Brownlow, I break even.
If someone who plays for outside a QLD club wins the Brownlow, lose about $9.40 after commission
If a player who plays for Brisbane or GCS win the Brownlow, apart from Ablett, I profit $1190.60.
Basically I'm getting odds of $126 that someone other than Ablett wins from Brisbane and GCS.

[thecattery12]

$9.22 up

$300 on Boyd under 115.5 Dream Team points @ $1.87
$250 on Boyd over 106.5 Dream Team points @ $2.05
UNDER 106.5 POINTS = $11 profit
OVER 115.5 POINTS = $37.50 loss
107-115 POINTS = $523.50 profit

$30 Tory Dickson most goals @ $34

Wow where was this?!

[MiddleMan]

Wow where was this?!

TAB "Player Performance"

[MiddleMan]

That is disgusting. Boyd ends up on 118 with a 38-point last quarter.

Even more disgusting is Boyd was on 112 and was making his way to the bench to finish off his night. On his journey to the bench, he received the ball from Hunter for a mark and a kick, before continuing to make his way to the bench. Couldn't Hunter have kicked it out on the full or something? Spewing!

[Maargs]

bent

[MiddleMan]

$58.28 down

$120 on Port @ $1.80
$100 on Adel @ $2.18 w Sportsbet (money back special)
$100 on Port -3.5 @ $2
$100 on Adel +4.5 @ $2

[MiddleMan]

$60 Prestia under 105.5 DT pts @ $1.87 w TAB

[MiddleMan]

$400 Freo/GCS over 169.5 points @ $2.15 w Palmerbet
$459.66 Freo/GCS under 171.5 points @ $1.94 w Betfair

[MiddleMan]

$25 Beams under 31.5 disposals @ $1.87 w Lux
$5 Jack most disposals @ $13 w Lux
$100 Sydney -14.5 @ $2
$100 Collingwood +15.5 @ $2

[MiddleMan]

$38.75 UP

$100 Geel/Bris under 176.5 @ $1.88 w Porterhouse
$100 Geel/Bris over 165.5 @ $1.87 w TAB

[MiddleMan]

$30 Kennedy, Darling, Lecras to beat Melbourne @ $3 W Sportsbet


$31 on Brisbane @ $4.30 w Betfair
$100 on Geelong @ $1.30 w Sportsbet (money back special)

[MiddleMan]

$38.75 UP

$100 Geel/Bris under 176.5 @ $1.88 w Porterhouse
$100 Geel/Bris over 165.5 @ $1.87 w TAB

Updated:

$300 Geel/Bris under 176.5 @ $1.88 w Porterhouse
$180 Geel/Bris over 165.5 @ $2 w Topsport
$100 Geel/Bris over 165.5 @ $1.87 w TAB
$107.20 Brisbane +24.5 @ $1.95 w Unibet
$100 Brisbane +22.5 @ $2 w Betstar
$200 Geelong -21.5 @ $2 w Topsport


If over 176.5 points are scored, I lose $33
If under 165.5 points are scored, I lose $16
If 166-176 points are scored, I profit $531

[MiddleMan]

$100 on North @ $1.37 w Sportsbet (money back special)
$40 on Bulldogs @ $3.50 w TAB

[MiddleMan]

$120 on Port @ $1.80
$100 on Adel @ $2.18 w Sportsbet (money back special)
$100 on Port -3.5 @ $2
$100 on Adel +4.5 @ $2

$4 loss

$60 Prestia under 105.5 DT pts @ $1.87 w TAB

$52.20 profit

$400 Freo/GCS over 169.5 points @ $2.15 w Palmerbet
$459.66 Freo/GCS under 171.5 points @ $1.94 w Betfair

$10.91 profit (after commission)

$25 Beams under 31.5 disposals @ $1.87 w Lux
$5 Jack most disposals @ $13 w Lux
$100 Sydney -14.5 @ $2
$100 Collingwood +15.5 @ $2

$16.75 profit

$30 Kennedy, Darling, Lecras to beat Melbourne @ $3 W Sportsbet


$31 on Brisbane @ $4.30 w Betfair
$100 on Geelong @ $1.30 w Sportsbet (money back special)

$59 profit

$300 Geel/Bris under 176.5 @ $1.88 w Porterhouse
$180 Geel/Bris over 165.5 @ $2 w Topsport
$100 Geel/Bris over 165.5 @ $1.87 w TAB
$107.20 Brisbane +24.5 @ $1.95 w Unibet
$100 Brisbane +22.5 @ $2 w Betstar
$200 Geelong -21.5 @ $2 w Topsport

$23.20 loss

$100 on North @ $1.37 w Sportsbet (money back special)
$40 on Bulldogs @ $3.50 w TAB

$3 loss

$108.66 up for the round.
$50.38 up for the year.

[MiddleMan]

$180 on Hawthorn @ $2.10.

[Bic]

$180 on Hawthorn @ $2.10.

I like your thinking... When was the last time Hawthorn were at the 'G as underdogs!?

I think the line will continue to favor Fremantly, so will wait later in the week to jump on.

[MiddleMan]

I can't remember the last time they were underdogs at the 'G. They still won't be underdogs this week either.

[aussieH]

Doubt on Mitchell and hodge playing though so may drift further

[MiddleMan]

$180 on Hawthorn @ $2.10.

Updates:

$180 on Hawthorn @ $2.10
$40 on Hawthorn @ $2
$200 on Fremantle +6.5 @ $2
$70 on Fremantle @ $2.45
$100 on Hawthorn @ $1.65 w Sportingbet (money back refund special)

If Hawthorn wins by more than six points = $33 profit
If Hawthorn wins by 1-6 points = $433 profit
If Fremantle wins by 19+ points = $18.50 loss
If Fremantle wins by 1-18 points = $81.50 profit