MiddleMan's AFL thread

[MiddleMan]

Great analysis. I keep saying you a very patient fella but your value you are up is well,worth it

Is one problem on your analysis above is that you will not get that middle opportunity in Pearce as an a example regularly

No doubt. It would be great if those lines and odds were posted on Pearce every week, but we both know that won't be the case.

[thecattery12]

Interestingly sportsbet has Josh J. Kennedy's disposal line set at 28.5. I wonder whats going to happen to bets seeing as they've got the wrong Kennedy lol

[aussieH]

They will probably void it. I had a big play on an nba total last year that they tried to cancel.

They honoured it but it took a bit of negotiating

[aussieH]

Is josh j Kennedy the eagle or the swan

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Not sure if this qualifies but here is a "middle" for the NRL today - Dragons v Warriors:

$100 Match Points OVER 40.5 @ $1.91 (LADBROKES)
$100 Match Points UNDER 43.5 @ $1.90 (LUXBET)

If it lands on 40 or under = $10 loss
If it lands on 44 or over = $9 loss
If it lands on 41, 42, 43 = $181 profit

[aussieH]

He does not appear to play game scores so much bot often you can get some gaps in afl games. Sportsbet and tab has a couple games early in the week with about 3 point gaps

[MiddleMan]

Not sure if this qualifies but here is a "middle" for the NRL today - Dragons v Warriors:

$100 Match Points OVER 40.5 @ $1.91 (LADBROKES)
$100 Match Points UNDER 43.5 @ $1.90 (LUXBET)

If it lands on 40 or under = $10 loss
If it lands on 44 or over = $9 loss
If it lands on 41, 42, 43 = $181 profit

Nicely done.

Good luck.

[MiddleMan]

Interestingly sportsbet has Josh J. Kennedy's disposal line set at 28.5. I wonder whats going to happen to bets seeing as they've got the wrong Kennedy lol

Interesting. Let me know if they honour it as the WCE version.

[MiddleMan]

$50 North Melbourne win @ $2.50 w Tom
$100 North Melbourne +1.5 @ $2 w Betstar
$150 Collingwood +1.5 @ $2 w Topsport


$100 West Coast -2.0 @ $2 w Betstar
$100 Port Adelaide +3.5 @ $2 w Topsport

[micase]

Quick question with regards to disposal counts for AFL games, how long does it usually take to pay out these bets? Is it prone to a few updates that often take days much like NRL statistics betting?

Tailed the Del Santo bet and it seems as he is on 11 at the half time break.

[MiddleMan]

Yeah he's on eleven at half time but getting tagged by Caff.

Some agencies are quicker to pay out than others. Usually half an hour for Sportsbet. A bit longer for some of the others.

[MiddleMan]

$200 Freo -6.5 @ $2 w Topsport
$200 Sydney +9.5 @ $2 w Pinny

I took the Topsport line earlier in the week, hence the line differential.

[MiddleMan]

$100 Josh J Kennedy to get under 28.5 disposals @ $1.80 with Sportsbet. He has never gone over this in his career and I have a feeling he will line up at FF tonight.

[aussieH]

As noted earlier they have listed the wrong josh Kennedy. They mean the swans josh Kennedy. This will end in tears for sportsbet

[aussieH]

Hopefully Crowley tags Kennedy out of the game anyway

[aussieH]

Anyone seen any player markets on judd tomorrow. He looked lame on the news yesterday and nowhere near full fitness

[MiddleMan]

I haven't seen any Judd markets yet.

$100 West Coast -2.0 @ $2 w Betstar
$100 Port Adelaide +3.5 @ $2 w Topsport
$30 Josh Kennedy most goals @ $4 w Sportsbet

$100 St. Kilda +39.5 @ $2
$100 Essendon -38.5 @ $2
$30 Nick Riewoldt most goals @ $4 w Sportsbet

[aussieH]

Sportsbet have graded Kennedy as a losss. Will make a complaint after the eagles game.

[MiddleMan]

Mine is still pending. Are you sure they have graded it as a loss cause the game hasn't finished yet? If he gets under 28.5, they will pay out. They're good like that.

[aussieH]

They have given me my money back. Are you guys complaining or going to cop it

[aussieH]

By the way read an Interesting article about how the online bookies are closing down winning bettors. Even. When the bettors are betting in agencies they are trying to turn them away. Only interested in people having losers on their books. If I can find the link will post it. It was in a major Aussie newspaper

[thecattery12]

They have given me my money back. Are you guys complaining or going to cop it

I bet on Kennedy over 26.5 disposals at Centrebet so I'll take the free win lol. Wins have been rare for me today.

[thecattery12]

By the way read an Interesting article about how the online bookies are closing down winning bettors. Even. When the bettors are betting in agencies they are trying to turn them away. Only interested in people having losers on their books. If I can find the link will post it. It was in a major Aussie newspaper

Yep that's been pretty common knowledge for a while and it's probably going to get worse I'm already limited at 3 bookies.

[aussieH]

They gave me money back and a 25 bonus bet. I had 150 on the bet so kind of ripped off as the return should have been 255.

[aussieH]

I have cleaned up on the unders this weekend

however today the suns game goes over. Only concern is the demons kicking a few so maybe spread bet over the suns team total as we'll

[MiddleMan]

They have given me my money back. Are you guys complaining or going to cop it

They gave my money back too.

[MiddleMan]

$200 GWS +45.5 @ $2 w Topsport
$100 Adel -43.5 @ $2 w Betstar
$100 Adel -45.5 @ $2.10 w Sportsbet


$100 Melb +19.0 @ $2 w Betstar
$100 GCS -17.5 @ $2 w Topsport

[MiddleMan]

$30 Crameri most goals @ $10 w TAB
$30 Cameron most goals @ $5 w Sportsbet

[aussieH]

You like the goal kicking options. Creameries is a good play

[aussieH]

What sort of middles do you don't get near. Eg afl total points or nba player Or are they all fair game

[micase]

What sort of middles do you don't get near. Eg afl total points or nba player Or are they all fair game

Well you have to have an idea about the probabilities of those middles hitting. AFL totals can be difficult to find as most books will have similar lines within a few points. With scores of 100+ points you're going to need a fairly wide spread to make the bet worthwhile. NBA player props can be very profitable, I had 3-4 going in the first day of playoffs today. NFL player props can be good as well but require a couple of minutes trawling player stat pages to get a rough hit % (much like what Middleman provides in his analysis of past hit rates.)

[MiddleMan]

I have never attempted middles on total points in a sporting game unless it is affected by weather. I.E. Outdoor conditions.

I have attempted two only in my life, one which I posted here a few weeks ago (Brisbane v Geelong). Bookies take a while to adjust their totals when rain has been forecast, so you can gain an advantage that way.

[MiddleMan]

$440 Sam Mitchell to get "30 or more" disposals @ $2.40 w Sportsbet
$492.79 Sam Mitchell to get under 29.5 disposals @ $1.90 w Centrebet
$3.51 profit if he gets under 29.5 disposals
$123.21 profit if he gets over 29.5 disposals

[MiddleMan]

$30 Selwood most disposals (Lewis, Burgoyne, Hill, Birchall, Mitchell, Bartel, Stokes, Duncan, Johnson, Selwood) @ $6.50 w Unibet

[Tim Gerry Mander]

By the way read an Interesting article about how the online bookies are closing down winning bettors. Even. When the bettors are betting in agencies they are trying to turn them away. Only interested in people having losers on their books. If I can find the link will post it. It was in a major Aussie newspaper

Yep that's been pretty common knowledge for a while and it's probably going to get worse I'm already limited at 3 bookies.

I am interested in taking this further.
There was someone on Alan Jones a few weeks ago talking about the same thing.
The NT government is basically doing nothing to discourage the practice and it is a form of discrimination.

Would any of you guys be willing to document your issues and forward a petition?
I'm sure AJ would like to take the fight the the NT govt and the online bookies domiciled there.