MiddleMan's AFL thread

[MiddleMan]

$200 on Trent Cotchin to have "30 disposals or more" @ $2.50 w Centrebet
$294 on Trent Cotchin to have under 29.5 disposals @ $1.85 w Sportsbet

30+ possessions = $6 profit
Under 20 possessions = $49.90 profit

[aussieH]

You are a very patient man middle man

[MiddleMan]

I have added:

$110 on Freo @ $2.41
$150 on Hawks @ $1.77

Giving me an extra $5 profit on what I posted previously.

[MiddleMan]

$100 Sydney @ $2 w Topsport
$100 Adelaide @ $2 w Sportingbet

If Sydney wins between 1-18, profit = $100
Any other outcome = break even.

[MiddleMan]

$30 on Grigg most disposals Group A w Sportsbet @ $17 (Cotchin, Boyd, Martin, Liberatore, Griffen, Cooney, Jackson)
$30 on Ellis most disposals Group B w Sportsbet @ $6 (Mcrae, Murphy, Higgins, Dahlhaus, Thomas, Conca, Vlaustin)

[thelastbus]

Jumping on a few of these, cheers middleman. You've got a good eye for finding value. What markets are you playing for the sportingbet/topsport Sydney/Adelaide bet? Can't make sense of it..

[MiddleMan]

Jumping on a few of these, cheers middleman. You've got a good eye for finding value. What markets are you playing for the sportingbet/topsport Sydney/Adelaide bet? Can't make sense of it..

Thanks, mate. Simply the head to head market with Sportingbet. They have a promotion where they will refund your head to head bet up to $100 if your selected team loses by 1-18 points. Topsport is also offering $2 on both Sydney and Adelaide.

[MiddleMan]

$30 Swan 30+ possessions @ $2.90
$30 Swan 35+ possessions @ $9.50
$30 Scott Selwood 30+ possessions @ $2.90

[MiddleMan]

$49.33 Collingwood win @ $2.66
$100 Geelong win @ $1.56 w Sportingbet (money back special)
$100 Collingwood +9.5 @ $2
$100 Geelong -9.0 @ $2


$100 St. Kilda +57.5 @ $2
$100 West Coast -56.5 @ $2

[MiddleMan]

$100 Dal Santo under 26.5 disposals @ $1.95 w Centrebet
$105 Dal Santo over 24.5 disposals @ $1.85 w Sportsbet

[MiddleMan]

$30 Ward @ $1.93 to get more disposals than Vince
$30 Treloar @ $2 to get more disposals than Tyson
$30 Treloar @ $2.17 to get more disposals than N Jones

[MiddleMan]

$60 Melbourne @ $3.55 w Sportinbet


$100 GWS -20.5 @ $2
$100 Melb +21.5 @ $2

[MiddleMan]

• 
  $180 on Hawthorn @ $2.10
  $40 on Hawthorn @ $2
  $200 on Fremantle +6.5 @ $2
  $70 on Fremantle @ $2.45
  $100 on Hawthorn @ $1.65 w Sportingbet (money back refund special)
  
  If Hawthorn wins by more than six points = $33 profit
  If Hawthorn wins by 1-6 points = $433 profit
  If Fremantle wins by 19+ points = $18.50 loss
  If Fremantle wins by 1-18 points = $81.50 profit

  $33 profit
  
  

  $200 on Trent Cotchin to have "30 disposals or more" @ $2.50 w Centrebet
  $294 on Trent Cotchin to have under 29.5 disposals @ $1.85 w Sportsbet
  
  30+ possessions = $6 profit
  Under 20 possessions = $49.90 profit

  $49.90 profit
  
  

  I have added:
  
  $110 on Freo @ $2.41
  $150 on Hawks @ $1.77

  $5.50 profit
  
  

  $100 Sydney @ $2 w Topsport
  $100 Adelaide @ $2 w Sportingbet
  
  If Sydney wins between 1-18, profit = $100
  Any other outcome = break even.

  break even
  
  

  $30 on Grigg most disposals Group A w Sportsbet @ $17 (Cotchin, Boyd, Martin, Liberatore, Griffen, Cooney, Jackson)
  $30 on Ellis most disposals Group B w Sportsbet @ $6 (Mcrae, Murphy, Higgins, Dahlhaus, Thomas, Conca, Vlaustin)

  $60 loss
  
  

  $49.33 Collingwood win @ $2.66
  $100 Geelong win @ $1.56 w Sportingbet (money back special)
  $100 Collingwood +9.5 @ $2
  $100 Geelong -9.0 @ $2
  
  $100 St. Kilda +57.5 @ $2
  $100 West Coast -56.5 @ $2

  $6.67 profit
  
  

  $100 Dal Santo under 26.5 disposals @ $1.95 w Centrebet
  $105 Dal Santo over 24.5 disposals @ $1.85 w Sportsbet

  $10.75 loss
  
  

  $30 Ward @ $1.93 to get more disposals than Vince
  $30 Treloar @ $2 to get more disposals than Tyson
  $30 Treloar @ $2.17 to get more disposals than N Jones

  $93 profit
  
  

  $60 Melbourne @ $3.55 w Sportinbet
  $100 GWS -20.5 @ $2
  $100 Melb +21.5 @ $2

  $60 loss

$57.32 up for the round
$107.70 up for the year

[MiddleMan]

$30 on Marc Murphy to get more disposals than Bernie Vince @ $2.12 w Centrebet

[MiddleMan]

$100 Richmond +12.5 @ $2 w Topsport
$100 Collingwood -10.0 @ $2 w Betstar

[MiddleMan]

$100 Ablett under 33.5 disposals @ $1.90 w Centrebet
$105 Ablett over 31.5 disposals @ $1.87 w Sportsbet

[MiddleMan]

$100 Bulldogs -9.5 @ $1.91
$100 GWS +10.5 @ $2
$100 Bulldogs -11.5 @ $2
$100 GWS +12.5 @ $2

[MiddleMan]

Took this at Half Time.

If over 174.5 pts are scored, I win $85
If under 169.5 pts are scored, I win $180
If 170-174 pts are scored, I win $1965

[MiddleMan]

$200 Swans -11.5 @ $2
$200 North +16.5 @ $1.92

If Swans win by more than sixteen, I break even
If Swans win by 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, I win $384
Any other result = $16 loss

[MiddleMan]

$100 Adelaide -5.5 @ $2
$100 St. Kilda +6.5 @ $2

[MiddleMan]

$117.64 on Sloane under 25.5 disposals @ $1.85 w Centrebet
$100 on Sloane to get "25 or more" disposals @ $2.20 w Sportsbet

If he gets 26+, I win $2.36
If he gets under 25, I lose $0.01
If he gets 25 exactly, I win $219.99

[MiddleMan]

$200 Freo +1.5 @ $2
$200 Essendon win @ $2.05

If Essendon wins by more than one points = $10 profit
If Fremantle wins = break even
If it's a draw = $200 profit
If Fremantle wins by one point = $410 profit

[MiddleMan]

$30 Mundy to get more disposals than Heppell @ $2.45 w Centrebet

$200 Goddard under 105.5 Dream Team points @ $1.87 w TAB
$170 Goddard over 104.5 Dream Team points @ $2.15 w Betstar

[MiddleMan]

Took this at Half Time.

If over 174.5 pts are scored, I win $85
If under 169.5 pts are scored, I win $180
If 170-174 pts are scored, I win $1965

$180 profit

$30 on Marc Murphy to get more disposals than Bernie Vince @ $2.12 w Centrebet

$30 loss

$100 Richmond +12.5 @ $2 w Topsport
$100 Collingwood -10.0 @ $2 w Betstar

break even

$100 Ablett under 33.5 disposals @ $1.90 w Centrebet
$105 Ablett over 31.5 disposals @ $1.87 w Sportsbet

$8.65 loss

$100 Bulldogs -9.5 @ $1.91
$100 GWS +10.5 @ $2
$100 Bulldogs -11.5 @ $2
$100 GWS +12.5 @ $2

$9 loss

$200 Swans -11.5 @ $2
$200 North +16.5 @ $1.92

If Swans win by more than sixteen, I break even
If Swans win by 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, I win $384
Any other result = $16 loss

$16 loss

$100 Adelaide -5.5 @ $2
$100 St. Kilda +6.5 @ $2

break even

$117.64 on Sloane under 25.5 disposals @ $1.85 w Centrebet
$100 on Sloane to get "25 or more" disposals @ $2.20 w Sportsbet

If he gets 26+, I win $2.36
If he gets under 25, I lose $0.01
If he gets 25 exactly, I win $219.99

$2.36 profit

$200 Freo +1.5 @ $2
$200 Essendon win @ $2.05

If Essendon wins by more than one points = $10 profit
If Fremantle wins = break even
If it's a draw = $200 profit
If Fremantle wins by one point = $410 profit

break even

$30 Mundy to get more disposals than Heppell @ $2.45 w Centrebet

$200 Goddard under 105.5 Dream Team points @ $1.87 w TAB
$170 Goddard over 104.5 Dream Team points @ $2.15 w Betstar

$26 loss

$92.71 up for the round
$200.41 up for the year

[aussieH]

Nice update

[MiddleMan]

$30 Jonathan Brown to kick three or more goals @ $3.50 w Sportsbet.

[therealdealau]

$30 Jonathan Brown to kick three or more goals @ $3.50 w Sportsbet.

Love that.

[MiddleMan]

$100 Brisbane +28.5 w Topsport @ $2
$100 Richmond -27.5 w Betstar @ $2

[aussieH]

Brown won't get 3 kicks. Astbury will give him a lesson. Go tigers

[Bic]

Brown won't get 3 kicks. Astbury will give him a lesson. Go tigers

Browny!!!! Too big for Astbury.

[aussieH]

Browny had a good game on a limited opportunities and tough conditions.

Scoreboard flattered my tigers

[MiddleMan]

$205.50 Nick Dal Santo to get under 26.5 disposals at $1.95 w Centrebet
$215 Nick Dal Santo to get "25 disposals or more" at $1.89 w Sportsbet

$406.35 return if he gets over 26.5 disposals ($14.15 loss)
$400.73 return if he gets fewer than 25 disposals ($19.77 loss)
$386.58 profit if he gets 25 or 26 disposals.

$100 on Danyle Pearce over 22.5 disposals @ $1.90 w Centrebet
$100 on Danyle Pearce under 24.5 disposals @ $1.87 w Sportsbet

[MiddleMan]

I don't usually include analysis, but I will today.

Dal Santo
I am getting effective odds of $22.77 here. It means to break even, Dal Santo would have to hit this middle once in every 22 games, or once a season. In Dal Santo's 264 career games, he has hit this middle on 32 occasions, which is once in every 8.25 games (12.12% of the time). According to these stats, I should be getting odds of $8.25.

Pearce
I am getting effective odds of $15.39 here, meaning to break even, Pearce would have to hit this middle once in every 15.39 games. In his 183 career games, Pearce has hit this middle on 23 occasions. This is a success rate of hitting this middle once in every 7.95 games, or 12.58% of the time. According to these stats, I should be getting odds of $7.95.

[aussieH]

Nick dal santo having a good year. Worth a small play on the brownlow at value

[aussieH]

Great analysis. I keep saying you a very patient fella but your value you are up is well,worth it

Is one problem on your analysis above is that you will not get that middle opportunity in Pearce as an a example regularly