breeders cup

[JBEX]

going to post some initial thoughts and leans on some of friday's races tomorrow and saturday's on wednesday.. more than likely will be going with what I post early but want to leave the door open to make changes.. all picks will be up the night before or morning of the races


everyone welcome to give their opinions in here

[JBEX]

also just want to say I use brisnet pp's.. I don't look at these 2 days any different than I would friday's opening day card at aqueduct..I'd like to have a nice day but i'm not going to pick the horse I think is most likely to win every race.. may be on some favorites but looking to catch prices overall (5-1 and above generally speaking) .. like to do a mix (odds) on days like these but every card is different so see what happens

[JBEX]

FRIDAY




R1 marathon @ 1 3/4 miles GII (not a bc race)

#2 american tattoo (4-1)

interesting pletcher would try this spot with a horse who has never run anything close to this distance.. might be the speed of the speed (only 1 other #4) and if not maybe irad can get positioned outside and wait to make a move late.. both he and talamo know a speed duel benefits no one.. pedigree definetly route oriented




i would play the pre-breeders-cup races lighter.. hate going in to the start of the bc way down and more than happy to make a little less if they work out.. that's just me.. R4 two horses I always recommend going 50% more than what you'd bet on one divided by 2..$10 bettor go $8 win on two horses.. I wouldn't bet place when I play two horses


R2 #4 opus won (8-1)
R3 #2 almost a factor (15-1)

R4 #1 club aspen (15-1)**
R4 #8 great ulysses (8-1)


**2 horses R4

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R5 juvenile turf sprint

#1 chimney rock (10-1)

wish it wasn't the rail but impressed what this one has done at 3 different venues including the difficult KD

#6 alligator alley (12-1)

like R8 going with the 3rd or 4th best euro resume



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R6 juvenile turf


#2 structor (5-1)

mention a lot in my writeups horses who cost a lot relative to their pedigree specs and this one definitely fits the bill.. not borderline either as cost an extraordinary amount of money..broke maiden first out at saratoga at two turns on the turf pressing an absolutely tepid pace.. next out he was able to win a G3 stakes stalking a fast pace... for a 2yo consider that an impressive feat to move forward like that over consecutive races especially it being his first 2 races


#5 vitalogy (10-1)

able to break his maiden first start in a 16 horse field in ireland.. followed that with a decent 4th by 3 lengths in a G3 stakes in britain... 3rd career start(G1 woodbine) finished a decent 3rd breaking from the rail in a 12 horse field.. last start (4th career) broke from 14 post at keeneland in a G3 and finished a fast closing 2nd by a neck.. really like that he's run in big fields and has had to deal with extreme posts and run well.. obviously much better post today


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R7 juvenile fillies

#2 two sixty (15-1)

again another whose extraordinarily expensive for the pedigree and has paid off on the investment handsomely.. guess how much she cost ... $260k lol.. totally amazed at this morning line as her race in the florida stallion stakes was better figure-wise (pace and final) than anybody in here on the brisnets.. really think it's the lack of respect for those races that gets you this high a ml but I'll take it.. might be the speed of the speed and if not, hopefully can settle in and sit a nice trip.. hasn't had to do that yet but at what will hopefully be a big price willing to take that chance


#8 k p dreamin (20-1)

this one I consider a little expensive for the pedigree (not like the others).. think her debut was a perfect setup race for the stretchout maiden breaker in her 2nd start..chased two of the lower odds horses in here (1,9) around in a G1 here last start and finished a respectable 3rd by about 3 lengths.. the pace in that race was very slow which probably compromised her chances quite a bit.. obviously a positive that she's been over this surface



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R8 juvenile fillies turf


#1 living in the past (15-1) by new sire "bungleinthejungle" lol
#3 shadn (10-1)

nothing fancy here.. going european but with what I consider the 3rd and 4th best resume.. never know with the trip over and a host of other things that can go wrong over the course of a race.. too easy to take the top two euros imo who will offer no value (5,9)



R9 juvenile


#5 scabbard (8-1)

would gladly take 8-1 on this guy..pedigree,what he's done in his 3 races and jockey upgrade think that'd be a bargain


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[littlekona]

Alligator Alley is one I am interested in too I had him pounded at York and has a nice turn of foot and I think the firmer the better...He may be a bit of a head case though but if he breaks running he has big shot and will get action too

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Oy-A11nUc0

[JBEX]

added R6 juvenile turf

[JBEX]

Alligator Alley is one I am interested in too I had him pounded at York and has a nice turn of foot and I think the firmer the better...He may be a bit of a head case though but if he breaks running he has big shot and will get action too

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Oy-A11nUc0

yeah that was impressive.. there's not a lot of analysis in this for me though.. like to go euro but top 2 is too easy.. the liking firmer ground obviously important

[JBEX]

added R7 juvenile fillies



do the juvenile (last one) tonight

[JBEX]

finished friday

[Louisvillekid1]

Best of luck !

[JBEX]

same to you lkid.. great card of races to cap as always

[Louisvillekid1]

Yeah

If weather wasn’t an issue in ny

i love the sequences

[JBEX]

it takes a lot out of it for me.. eastern venue has a whole different feel and believe it will be back east next year.. keeneland?? but yes there's always the risk of inclement weather

[Louisvillekid1]

Im
saying for the big A card

[Louisvillekid1]

But it be so great to have NY only for undercard

these Cali only undercards are laughable


lol Pletcher is running American tattoo

cmon he’s 5th choice if that event is in Ny

and might steal it out there

I’m clearly biased and ignorant tho

Eight Rings doesn’t finish in the money , that will show it out

[JBEX]

yeah it looks like the rain will stop by Friday morning but probably be an off track for at least first half. .. haven't looked but guessing it's a nice card

I've seen more interesting editions of the marathon and probably part of the reason todd running him in this race is the nature of this track.. eight rings gonna be tough tho..think he's speedier than dm based on pace figures in his debut win and may be able to control things on the front

[littlekona]

here are futures some pretty bad courtesy of BOL

Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
04:12 PM	7	Kimari		+300
9	Four Wheel Drive		+400
10	A Ali		+500
6	Alligator Alley		+900
1	Chimney Rock		+1000
11	King Neptune		+1000
2	Band Practice		+1200
12	Cambria		+1200
13	Bulletproof One		+1800
5	Encoder		+2000
16	Karak		+2000
14	Air Force Jet		+2500
8	Dr Simpson		+2500
4	Dream Shot		+2500
3	Another Miracle		+2800
15	Fore Left		+5000
Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf
04:52 PM	12	Arizona		+200
4	Decorated Invader		+550
2	Structor		+700
3	Peace Achieved		+1000
5	Vitalogy		+1000
14	Hit The Road		+1200
7	Andesite		+1600
13	Fort Myers		+1600
1	Our Country		+2000
9	Gear Jockey		+2500
6	Graceful Kitten		+2500
10	War Beast		+4000
8	Billy Batts		+5000
11	Proven Strategies		+5000
15	Deviant		+10000
Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies
05:32 PM	6	Bast		+275
1	Donna Veloce		+350
4	British Idiom		+400
7	Wicked Whisper		+500
3	Perfect Alibi		+1400
9	Comical		+1600
5	Lazy Daisy		+1600
2	Two Sixty		+2500
8	K P Dreamin		+4000
Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
06:12 PM	5	Daahyeh		+375
9	Albigna		+400
12	Sweet Melania		+700
7	Crystalle		+1200
13	Selflessly		+1200
8	Tango		+1200
10	Fair Maiden		+1400
1	Living in The Past		+1400
4	Abscond		+1600
11	Sharing		+1600
14	Etoile		+1800
3	Shadn		+1800
2	Croughavouke		+2500
6	Unforgetable		+2500
Breeders Cup Juvenile
07:03 PM	1	Dennis Moment		+150
6	Eight Rings		+150
5	Scabbard		+750
7	Anneau d Or		+1600
3	Shoplifted		+2000
4	Storm The Court		+2500
2	Wrecking Crew		+2500
8	Full Flat		+5000
Saturday, Nov 02, 2019
Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
02:55 PM	4	Come Dancing		+250
1	Covfefe		+250
9	Spiced Perfection		+500
6	Bellafina		+1000
7	Selcourt		+1000
5	Lady Ninja		+1400
8	Dawn The Destroyer		+1600
2	Danuskas My Girl		+2500
3	Heavenhasmynikki		+2500
Breeders Cup Turf Sprint
03:33 PM	10	Eddie Haskell		+450
1	Totally Boss		+500
3	Imprimis		+800
6	Stormy Liberal		+900
5	Stubbins		+900
9	Final Frontier		+1000
7	Leinster		+1000
2	Pure Sensation		+1000
4	Shekky Shebaz		+1000
12	Belvoir Bay		+1400
8	Legends Of War		+1600
14	Double Touch		+2500
13	Girls Know Best		+2500
11	Om		+2500
Breeders Cup Dirt Mile
04:10 PM	5	Omaha Beach		+120
4	Mr Money		+500
2	Improbable		+600
7	Coal Front		+700
3	Spun To Run		+800
1	Giant Expectations		+1600
9	Diamond Oops		+2000
8	Blue Chipper		+3300
10	Snapper Sinclair		+3300
6	Ambassadorial		+5000
Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf
04:54 PM	2	Sistercharlie		+100
1	Iridessa		+650
3	Fleeting		+900
9	Villa Marina		+900
4	Billesdon Brook		+1000
8	Castle Lady		+1400
12	Fanny Logan		+1600
7	Vasilika		+1600
5	Mirth		+2500
11	Just Wonderful		+3300
6	Thais		+6600
Breeders Cup Sprint
05:36 PM	4	Mitole		+200
6	Shancelot		+350
9	Imperial Hint		+400
1	Catalina Cruiser		+600
3	Firenze Fire		+1000
5	Engage		+1400
7	Whitmore		+2000
2	Hog Creek Hustle		+2500
10	Matera Sky		+2500
Breeders Cup Turf
07:40 PM	9	Bricks and Mortar		+200
5	Anthony Van Dyck		+225
10	Old Persian		+350
4	Mount Everest		+1200
7	Alounak		+2000
11	Arklow		+2000
12	Channel Maker		+2500
6	Channel Cat		+2800
8	Bandua		+3300
2	Acclimate		+4000
1	Zulu Alpha		+4000
3	United		+6600
Breeders Cup Classic
08:44 PM	8	McKinzie		+350
11	Code of Honor		+400
10	Vino Rosso		+500
6	Elate		+650
5	Yoshida		+700
7	Higher Power		+1200
3	Owendale		+1600
9	Mongolian Groom		+2000
1	Math Wizard		+2500
2	Seeking The Soul		+2500
4	War of Will		+2500

[JBEX]

wow they give even less respect to two sixty

[Louisvillekid1]

I currently have a $512 pick 5 ticket

4x4x4x4x4x

im selling shares off @ my local joint

leg 4 scares me the most

[JOH]

come on over...

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread...1#post12975112

[JBEX]

FRIDAY




R1 marathon @ 1 3/4 miles GII (not a bc race)

#2 american tattoo (4-1)

interesting pletcher would try this spot with a horse who has never run anything close to this distance.. might be the speed of the speed (only 1 other #4) and if not maybe irad can get positioned outside and wait to make a move late.. both he and talamo know a speed duel benefits no one.. pedigree definetly route oriented




i would play the pre-breeders-cup races lighter.. hate going in to the start of the bc way down and more than happy to make a little less if they work out.. that's just me.. R4 two horses I always recommend going 50% more than what you'd bet on one divided by 2..$10 bettor go $8 win on two horses.. I wouldn't bet place when I play two horses


R2 #4 opus won (8-1)
R3 #2 almost a factor (15-1)

R4 #1 club aspen (15-1)**
R4 #8 great ulysses (8-1)


**2 horses R4

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R5 juvenile turf sprint

#1 chimney rock (10-1)

wish it wasn't the rail but impressed what this one has done at 3 different venues including the difficult KD

#6 alligator alley (12-1)

like R8 going with the 3rd or 4th best euro resume



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R6 juvenile turf


#2 structor (5-1)

mention a lot in my writeups horses who cost a lot relative to their pedigree specs and this one definitely fits the bill.. not borderline either as cost an extraordinary amount of money..broke maiden first out at saratoga at two turns on the turf pressing an absolutely tepid pace.. next out he was able to win a G3 stakes stalking a fast pace... for a 2yo consider that an impressive feat to move forward like that over consecutive races especially it being his first 2 races


#5 vitalogy (10-1)

able to break his maiden first start in a 16 horse field in ireland.. followed that with a decent 4th by 3 lengths in a G3 stakes in britain... 3rd career start(G1 woodbine) finished a decent 3rd breaking from the rail in a 12 horse field.. last start (4th career) broke from 14 post at keeneland in a G3 and finished a fast closing 2nd by a neck.. really like that he's run in big fields and has had to deal with extreme posts and run well.. obviously much better post today


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R7 juvenile fillies

#2 two sixty (15-1)

again another whose extraordinarily expensive for the pedigree and has paid off on the investment handsomely.. guess how much she cost ... $260k lol.. totally amazed at this morning line as her race in the florida stallion stakes was better figure-wise (pace and final) than anybody in here on the brisnets.. really think it's the lack of respect for those races that gets you this high a ml but I'll take it.. might be the speed of the speed and if not, hopefully can settle in and sit a nice trip.. hasn't had to do that yet but at what will hopefully be a big price willing to take that chance


#8 k p dreamin (20-1)

this one I consider a little expensive for the pedigree (not like the others).. think her debut was a perfect setup race for the stretchout maiden breaker in her 2nd start..chased two of the lower odds horses in here (1,9) around in a G1 here last start and finished a respectable 3rd by about 3 lengths.. the pace in that race was very slow which probably compromised her chances quite a bit.. obviously a positive that she's been over this surface



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R8 juvenile fillies turf


#1 living in the past (15-1) by new sire "bungleinthejungle" lol
#3 shadn (10-1)

nothing fancy here.. going european but with what I consider the 3rd and 4th best resume.. never know with the trip over and a host of other things that can go wrong over the course of a race.. too easy to take the top two euros imo who will offer no value (5,9)



R9 juvenile


#5 scabbard (8-1)

would gladly take 8-1 on this guy..pedigree,what he's done in his 3 races and jockey upgrade think that'd be a bargain


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added R2 3 4 and that'll do it for friday

[batt33]

agree with you JBEX light early...although in some years, Early was all that I hit
We are on some of the same horses.
playing this p-3 and watching.

ACCEPTED:

SA

#1

$0.50 Pick-3

2, 5, WT, 3, 4, 9, WT, 2, 8, 11

none

$9.00

[JBEX]

agree with you JBEX light early...although in some years, Early was all that I hit
We are on some of the same horses.
playing this p-3 and watching.

ACCEPTED:

SA

#1

$0.50 Pick-3

2, 5, WT, 3, 4, 9, WT, 2, 8, 11

none

$9.00

gl batt33

[JBEX]

today 3 posts back




SATURDAY


R3 twilight derby G2


#4 temple (20-1)


like how he hung in (didn't give it up badly) last out at longer distance at kentucky downs last out.. looks like another great mike maker claim


R4 bc fm sprint

#1 covfefe (2-1)

can possibly take the lead or sit a little off but she's just the fastest horse

R5 bc turf sprint

#3 imprimus (8-1)

3rd off the layoff after shipping out to run at royal ascot and a couple of nice primers under her including what looks to be trouble at kentucky downs.. think ready for a top effort here and feel her best shot is better than the others.. dettori rides as paco must be committed to clements #2 pure sensation who he's won with last 3 times he rode her.. frankie (dettori) rode her over in ascot so at least he has some familiarity with the horse and of course he's one of the world's great jockeys



R7 bc fm turf


#3 fleeting (6-1)

#9 villa marina (8-1)


both top class euros who are in good form and distance right in their wheelhouse.. a knock on the favorite #2 mysistercharlie (8-5) is all her big figures have happened closing into very fast paces.. whether it's the case today or not it's worth noting


R8 bc sprint


#6 shancelot (4-1)

not much to say on this one



R9 bc turf mile


#1 suedois (20-1)

does not get up to win often enough but like how consistently he puts up a good effort.. this includes a solid 3rd going very wide in his first try in the states last out at keeneland .. castellano takes over from the euro jocks


#2 lucullan (12-1)

very similar to above except this one does win more often.. but the lack of notching many wins will get you a bigger price on the other.. mile looks right up his alley


R10 bc distaff


#7 secret spice (10-1)

consistent as they come.. could see her sitting a nice trip just off the speed

R11 bc turf


#1 zulu alpha (20-1)



consistent efforts, loves the distance, back to jose for ground saving trip.. also he twice has run very even all the way around races that were followed up by wins.. bowling green followed up with ky turf cup win (9/7/19)..fort lauderdale followed up with william mcknight win (1/26/19)


R12 bc classic

#11 code of honor (4-1)

I think why he's good is very obvious.. what I like a lot about him is when he didn't put in a top effort there were clear excuses.. the torrid pace he was close up to in his 3rd career start and finished an ok 4th.. the pace in the florida derby was ridiculously slow (by figs) and he managed to run an even 3rd.. I consider that a good effort under those circumstances.. good enough to break his maiden first out at saratoga which I still feel is important to the overall picture considering how good a router he is..finishing 3rd in the derby on a sloppy track is a fine effort in a freak race.. middle/classic distance on a fast track vs top company more important to me.. distance obviously not a problem with a win in the travers, a nose loss in the jc gold cup and of course the aforementioned ky derby.. by new sire "noble mission" who's a full brother to one of the all time greats "frankel" who's an elite sire already after his 3rd or 4th crop.. all class and distance with those bloodlines.. not nuts about breaking from post 11 but there is a long run up to the first turn and he has the tactical speed to get him in good position

[JBEX]

did everything except classic

[JBEX]

added the classic