opening day cards at del mar and saratoga

[JBEX]

any opinions or just picks on these cards post in here if you'd like.. usually excellent betting races

[Easy-Rider 66]

Lkid1 check in,.

[JBEX]

saratoga


looks like there's a decent chance the track may be off tomorrow (ruins it for me) .. any turf race (2 4 6 7 9 10) that is run on the dirt is a no play..i always handicap dirt races for good or fast tracks so sloppy or muddy conditions are half plays or no plays for me.. since it's opening day of the best race meet figured it'd be a good time to point this out again.. not going to bother with 7-10 till I see what the conditions are tomorrow



R1 #7 real dan (5-2)

have a feeling this is a well meant drop down with the connections involved.. owner is a big player in this game and buys very expensive horses..he'll run them where they are capable of doing well even if it means taking a loss.. don't think he'd be returning in 3 weeks if he were in really bad shape.. think with what he has under him he's nicely set up for the stretch out.. probably get taken by someone


R2 #8 duress (15-1)


first time starter who cost a lot for the pedigree.. above average turf and win early top and bottom.. working very nicely up to the race.. trainer bad with first time starters (1/32) but you need something to be off to get a price.. have to think maybe they've tightened him up a little more than usual being its opening day


R3 #7 the rock says (4-1)

trying to stay away from horses who ran big at belmont because of the completely different configuration of route races up here.. not going take the big figure chad brown (#6) as that's too obvious.. this one has many nice credentials coming in



R4 #3 discretionary (8-1)



R5 #1 time shift (15-1)

trainer bad with debut horses but like the kentucky bloodlines vs nyb company.. works solid but not spectacular which i prefer anyway




R6 #10 analyzethisandthat (9-2)

won here last year in his 3rd career start and doing the same thing here (distance, surface but 3rd off the layoff this time).. like the races he's got under him as a setup .. crappy trainer may give you a shot at a decent price

[JBEX]

added 3-6

[JBEX]

added comment

[Easy-Rider 66]

added comment

Have to disagree with your take on muddy conditions. I think it presents an Opportunity. However Rob Hennie from the East Coast Handicapping Report agrees with your sentiments. He thinks game is challenging enough without adding mud to the mix.

[JBEX]

Have to disagree with your take on muddy conditions. I think it presents an Opportunity. However Rob Hennie from the East Coast Handicapping Report agrees with your sentiments. He thinks game is challenging enough without adding mud to the mix.

I agree with rob.. don't want to have to make more adjustments plus I do my picks in advance and can't change on the fly

[Easy-Rider 66]

I agree with rob.. don't want to have to make more adjustments plus I do my picks in advance and can't change on the fly

Yeah get your drift as it does add another wrinkle to the puzzle. But with the available info like Breeders ratings from BRIS and Tomlinson numbers from DRF you have a foundation. In addition, past performance on off tracks is paramount. But with your capping style I can see how it's a no go for you. GL at SAR/DMR.

[JBEX]

Yeah get your drift as it does add another wrinkle to the puzzle. But with the available info like Breeders ratings from BRIS and Tomlinson numbers from DRF you have a foundation. In addition, past performance on off tracks is paramount. But with your capping style I can see how it's a no go for you. GL at SAR/DMR.

thanks. .two things I would do in off track races at saratoga..don't play horses who ran well on slop at other tracks as they'll be over bet and miight not take to saratoga slop..the other would be play horses (if you can see their pp's within the last 10 or you have pp's that go further back) that have run well on an off track here before

[Easy-Rider 66]

thanks. .two things I would do in off track races at saratoga..don't play horses who ran well on slop at other tracks as they'll be over bet and miight not take to saratoga slop..the other would be play horses (if you can see their pp's within the last 10 or you have pp's that go further back) that have run well on an off track here before

I also like to look for speed on wet tracks. Remember STR saying it holds up well, and that has been my recollections as well.

[littlekona]

i have always liked out of town shippers at both del mar ( Fair circuit horses) and Saratoga ( Delaware and Monmouth invaders esp on lawn) seems like they are live many times

[BigdaddyQH]

Del Mar pays big for shippers running their first race at the track. Bigger bonuses if they win.

[JBEX]

i have always liked out of town shippers at both del mar ( Fair circuit horses) and Saratoga ( Delaware and Monmouth invaders esp on lawn) seems like they are live many times

generally speaking anything but belmont horses with good form.. that's sure no value

[JBEX]

Del Mar pays big for shippers running their first race at the track. Bigger bonuses if they win.

saw that incentive ... interesting

[Easy-Rider 66]

The head of NYRA David O'Rourke has stated among other reasons that 'customer demand and the marketplace' are the 'rationale' for moving to an 0.20 Jackpot P6 bet.

[JBEX]

The head of NYRA David O'Rourke has stated among other reasons that 'customer demand and the marketplace' are the 'rationale' for moving to an 0.20 Jackpot P6 bet.

wasn't aware that was happening in ny...it's a great bet once the pools reach at least a few hundred thousand

[JBEX]

wasn't aware that was happening in ny...it's a great bet once the pools reach at least a few hundred thousand

actually probably more like $750k - 1M..you have to attract big enough handles on a daily basis to compensate for the 30% carried forward if there's more than one winner.. then you have the small increment base bet and it becomes interesting

[Easy-Rider 66]

actually probably more like $750k - 1M..you have to attract big enough handles on a daily basis to compensate for the 30% carried forward if there's more than one winner.. then you have the small increment base bet and it becomes interesting

Saw a podcast with Andy Beyer and Ron Niccoletti (who is ML maker for GP) and Beyer slammed the rainbow pick 6 saying it was a poor wagering option other than the final day. Beyer called it the crack cocaine of bets.

[JBEX]

Saw a podcast with Andy Beyer and Ron Niccoletti (who is ML maker for GP) and Beyer slammed the rainbow pick 6 saying it was a poor wagering option other than the final day. Beyer called it the crack cocaine of bets.

his reasoning is the 30% carry forward plus the normal high take makes it a ripoff bet..to me the litmus test is see what the payoff is when it's split amongst multiple people when the jackpot exceeds a million dollars..almost always outrageous overlays vs the parlay price and as it gets higher and more money taken in daily the overlays get bigger..to me this quashes the high vig negative

[JBEX]

looks like thunderstorms arriving around noon.. 5 of the last 7 races scheduled for turf.. not good

[JBEX]

looks like thunderstorms arriving around noon.. 5 of the last 7 races scheduled for turf.. not good

just checked forecast.gov (the best weather info imo) and now they've pushed things back to a little later..light rain starting around 2 and going to 5pm..heavier stuff after that...have a hunch this cards going to get through without it being an off track

[JBEX]

just checked forecast.gov (the best weather info imo) and now they've pushed things back to a little later..light rain starting around 2 and going to 5pm..heavier stuff after that...have a hunch this cards going to get through without it being an off track

or at least most of it

[Easy-Rider 66]

saratog

looks like there's a decent chance the track may be off tomorrow (ruins it for me) .. any turf race (2 4 6 7 9 10) that is run on the dirt is a no play..i always handicap dirt races for good or fast tracks so sloppy or muddy conditions are half plays or no plays for me.. since it's opening day of the best race meet figured it'd be a good time to point this out again.. not going to bother with 7-10 till I see what the conditions are tomorrow



R1 #7 real dan (5-2)

have a feeling this is a well meant drop down with the connections involved.. owner is a big player in this game and buys very expensive horses..he'll run them where they are capable of doing well even if it means taking a loss.. don't think he'd be returning in 3 weeks if he were in really bad shape.. think with what he has under him he's nicely set up for the stretch out.. probably get taken by someone


R2 #8 duress (15-1)


first time starter who cost a lot for the pedigree.. above average turf and win early top and bottom.. working very nicely up to the race.. trainer bad with first time starters (1/32) but you need something to be off to get a price.. have to think maybe they've tightened him up a little more than usual being its opening day


R3 #7 the rock says (4-1)

trying to stay away from horses who ran big at belmont because of the completely different configuration of route races up here.. not going take the big figure chad brown (#6) as that's too obvious.. this one has many nice credentials coming in



R4 #3 discretionary (8-1)



R5 #1 time shift (15-1)

trainer bad with debut horses but like the kentucky bloodlines vs nyb company.. works solid but not spectacular which i prefer anyway




R6 #10 analyzethisandthat (9-2)

won here last year in his 3rd career start and doing the same thing here (distance, surface but 3rd off the layoff this time).. like the races he's got under him as a setup .. crappy trainer may give you a shot at a decent price

bump gl

[JBEX]

saratoga


looks like there's a decent chance the track may be off tomorrow (ruins it for me) .. any turf race (2 4 6 7 9 10) that is run on the dirt is a no play..i always handicap dirt races for good or fast tracks so sloppy or muddy conditions are half plays or no plays for me.. since it's opening day of the best race meet figured it'd be a good time to point this out again.. not going to bother with 7-10 till I see what the conditions are tomorrow



R1 #7 real dan (5-2)

have a feeling this is a well meant drop down with the connections involved.. owner is a big player in this game and buys very expensive horses..he'll run them where they are capable of doing well even if it means taking a loss.. don't think he'd be returning in 3 weeks if he were in really bad shape.. think with what he has under him he's nicely set up for the stretch out.. probably get taken by someone


R2 #8 duress (15-1)


first time starter who cost a lot for the pedigree.. above average turf and win early top and bottom.. working very nicely up to the race.. trainer bad with first time starters (1/32) but you need something to be off to get a price.. have to think maybe they've tightened him up a little more than usual being its opening day


R3 #7 the rock says (4-1)

trying to stay away from horses who ran big at belmont because of the completely different configuration of route races up here.. not going take the big figure chad brown (#6) as that's too obvious.. this one has many nice credentials coming in



R4 #3 discretionary (8-1)



R5 #1 time shift (15-1)

trainer bad with debut horses but like the kentucky bloodlines vs nyb company.. works solid but not spectacular which i prefer anyway




R6 #10 analyzethisandthat (9-2)

won here last year in his 3rd career start and doing the same thing here (distance, surface but 3rd off the layoff this time).. like the races he's got under him as a setup .. crappy trainer may give you a shot at a decent price

thanks easy



R7 #1 dynamite kitten (15-1) has to be turf

think she will be much less.. lightly raced 4yo filly who seems to be coming into her own.. 6 wide both turns 3 back and finished 2nd by less than a length.. attended extremely fast pace 2 back after hitting the gate and retreated to 3rd.. got through n1x last out and comment had to wait t to get through at the quarter pole.. by animal kingdom out of an extremely productive dynaformer mare which is great turf distance pedigree.. trainer tremendously profitable off a win and on turf in general and solid turf rider gaffalione rides


R8 #1 shippy (2-1) fast or good

not going to get fancy here.. two doug o'neils (other #5).. who broke their maidens first out with 97 brisnet figures (amazing in itself).. opened 5 lengths final eighth and won by 10..like that she did it at an east coast track (laurel) vs the other at santa anita.. even at 77k this one cost a good amount relative to the pedigree which to me is still useful information.. rail is excellent at saratoga in 6f sprints




R10 #7 elite mom (12-1)

ran behind ridiculously slow paces in her last 2 races including a very wide trip in her last.. drops into maiden claiming, 3rd off the layoff and jose ortiz stays aboard

[JBEX]

R4 #5 go silently (3-1) late pick


my early pick scratched

[JBEX]

added R10

[JBEX]

del mar

R3 #4 top of the game (8-1)

R5 #4 honey from the south (6-1)

R7 #6 secret square (5-1)

R8 #7 more ice (15-1)

2 wins in 3 starts here as a 2yo.. his last race very similar running line to the race that preceded his 2nd win last year.. norberto arroyo rides first time and he's a very capable turf pilot

R9 #7 candy cornell (20-1)

his last race reminds me of his race 4 back which he followed up with a close 2nd at 25-1 running a very high figure.. comes back in roughly same amount of time.. came 2nd in his debut here as a 2yo


R10 #4 my journey (10-1)

he was 2 lengths off an 8 length(both averages of 2 first calls) fast pace last out.. his running line in his debut as a 2yo to me hints he might go well long.. baltas tremendous removing the blinkers and solid 2nd off the layoff

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey JBEX: when you put up the picks this early do you account for scratched horses? Not so much your pony, but another horse being out that may affect how the race will be run? I know Andy Serling from NYRA mentioned that as a public capper for him you do not get that opportunity. But I do see him change his pick sometimes on NYRA live I believe. It's cool you put up picks this early and in the morning. The biggest downside is what I mentioned along with odds moves. THx.

[JBEX]

Hey JBEX: when you put up the picks this early do you account for scratched horses? Not so much your pony, but another horse being out that may affect how the race will be run? I know Andy Serling from NYRA mentioned that as a public capper for him you do not get that opportunity. But I do see him change his pick sometimes on NYRA live I believe. It's cool you put up picks this early and in the morning. The biggest downside is what I mentioned along with odds moves. THx.

no question that's a disadvantage but I can't and don't want to wait for early scratches.. not practical to do that for me.. I do take pace into account as part of the process and on occasion it will negatively effect my selection when a certain other horse is scratched.. it's not enough of a problem to discourage me and feel it won't alter my opinion often enough over the long haul

[Easy-Rider 66]

no question that's a disadvantage but I can't and don't want to wait for early scratches.. not practical to do that for me.. I do take pace into account as part of the process and on occasion it will negatively effect my selection when a certain other horse is scratched.. it's not enough of a problem to discourage me and feel it won't alter my opinion often enough over the long haul

OK. Thx for the reply. I understand you use the BRIS pace numbers that's why I wondered. I give you credit for posting in advance. Makes it tougher to cap imo. GL at DMR.

[JBEX]

OK. Thx for the reply. I understand you use the BRIS pace numbers that's why I wondered. I give you credit for posting in advance. Makes it tougher to cap imo. GL at DMR.

thanks.. another thing is while I do consider pace it's in general less important to me than most..my stronger opinions usually don't involve pace scenarios at least as a primary issue

[Easy-Rider 66]

thanks.. another thing is while I do consider pace it's in general less important to me than most..my stronger opinions usually don't involve pace scenarios at least as a primary issue

OK. One of the great things about the game is the different styles of capping. Personally, I rely heavily on those pace numbers from BRIS. Last time I went to track and had to use DRF I was lost. Conversely, a capper like Mr. G&T only uses DRF, and does not utilize Pace figures like I do. Sounds like you are somewhere in the middle. Anyway see what happens on WED at Ole DMR.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Lower Inventory Of Horses’ Will Make Del Mar’s Five-Day Week ‘A Challenge’ For Racing Office

[JBEX]

Lower Inventory Of Horses’ Will Make Del Mar’s Five-Day Week ‘A Challenge’ For Racing Office

sounds like meets going to be a dud..we'll see

[JBEX]

del mar

R3 #4 top of the game (8-1)

R5 #4 honey from the south (6-1)

R7 #6 secret square (5-1)

R8 #7 more ice (15-1)

2 wins in 3 starts here as a 2yo.. his last race very similar running line to the race that preceded his 2nd win last year.. norberto arroyo rides first time and he's a very capable turf pilot

R9 #7 candy cornell (20-1)

his last race reminds me of his race 4 back which he followed up with a close 2nd at 25-1 running a very high figure.. comes back in roughly same amount of time.. came 2nd in his debut here as a 2yo


R10 #4 my journey (10-1)

he was 2 lengths off an 8 length(both averages of 2 first calls) fast pace last out.. his running line in his debut as a 2yo to me hints he might go well long.. baltas tremendous removing the blinkers and solid 2nd off the layoff

bump