changing a final pick for the derby

[JBEX]

with post positions decided and what looks like will be an off track on saturday think I'm going to make one switch in my picks .. with the bad draw (2) and a pedigree that's less suited for an off track going to lay off #2 tax (20-1) as a derby day pick (remember picked him as a future play mid march @ 59-1)..along with game winner on feb 11



post 29

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/horse-racing-betting/3525246-kentucky-derby-future-bet.html

staying put with #16 GAME WINNER (5-1) and adding #6 VEKOMA (20-1)


pedigree..

candy ride (game winner's sire also) out of speightstown mare much better off track.. sacrifice distance influence on the bottom but I like the trade off.. even if track ends up good or fast this pick stands.. speightstown also classy influence as he and candy ride both have an 80k stallion fee

as far as what he's done as a runner he's had 4 career starts and if you put pace figures, final figures with distance together he scores very high..(i use brisnet so I can only go by their numbers) in other words he not only runs big figs but he's done it up close to fast paces which is a big plus to me.. broke his maiden first out at belmont in sept with a solid figure.. followed that up with a win at a mile in the nashua (grade 3) with a figure that is about as good as anyone in here and more importantly he did it as a 2yo and he did it at a mile.. pace was about 6-7 lengths fast (I avg first 2 calls) and he was within a length of if it at the 2nd pace call so no cheating there..first race as a 3yo in the fountain of youth was a dissappointing 3rd with no apparent excuses looking at the comment line.. last race wins the bluegrass and does so knocking heads on the front end of a 6 length fast pace.. matches figure run in the nashua which puts him right in the hunt



castellano rides and you have a bit of a below the radar guy (george weaver) training.. solid trainer just lacks the recognition of many of the others in here.. lightly raced and last start in kentucky so less traveling around up to the race.. like this combination of things at a big price

[darrell74]

Game winner now 9/2
Might want to get this in before it gets bet down, as a prop bet. Maybe

[littlekona]

Based on Ragozin figures, there are 3-4 win contenders and another 5 or so that would fall into the next group of contenders.
Game Winner, Improbable, Maximum Security, Cutting Humor and Spinoff have all run below 6 in their most recent starts on the Ragozin sheets. Tax, Tacitus, Roadster. Bodexpress have run between 6 and 7. By My Standards, Vekoma between 7 and 8.

lower the number the better. One more to look at that is not on list is Code of Honor just because I respect the trainer so much Shug got it done with Orb

[JBEX]

Based on Ragozin figures, there are 3-4 win contenders and another 5 or so that would fall into the next group of contenders.
Game Winner, Improbable, Maximum Security, Cutting Humor and Spinoff have all run below 6 in their most recent starts on the Ragozin sheets. Tax, Tacitus, Roadster. Bodexpress have run between 6 and 7. By My Standards, Vekoma between 7 and 8.

lower the number the better. One more to look at that is not on list is Code of Honor just because I respect the trainer so much Shug got it done with Orb

I wouldn't have brought this up but what you said leads so perfectly up to it..probably told this story once before on here but it's quick so say it again..in 2005 I had 5 horses as future bets going into the derby of which two of them
wound up running 1 and 2...those two being giacomo and closing argument ..of the 5 I had 4 wound up running and forgot the name of the other 2..couple of friends who were fairly heavy hitters often had the ragozin sheets and I had looked at them often throughout the years even before knowing them..bottomline giacomo and closing argument were too slow according to the sheets running around 6 and 7's also..you think at the huge odds they were going off at and that they were amongst my 4 future bets I might have decided to throw a $1 four horse exacta box in but NOO they were not fast enough on the ragozin's.. $1 exacta paid over $4900 ..ouch !! my future bets were small and did little to take away the sting of missing that..not knocking the ragozin's as I use them and thoro graphs on some occassions and respect them as a handicapping product but that one will always stick in my craw

[JBEX]

ok now that I've vented lol I heard omaha beach ran a -2 in the ark derby ..know he's scratched but do you now if that was true or did I hear it wrong ?

[littlekona]

Not sure but it would be 1-1/2 pt or more lower them improbable...sheets are great for finding price plays in multi race wagers as many times u get a 10/1 bet down but it still plays as a 10/1 in multi race wagers