Kentucky Derby an d Triple Crown Discussion

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  • Pigpen
    SBR MVP
    • 05-09-08
    • 2750

    #1
    Kentucky Derby an d Triple Crown Discussion
    I did not see a thread so I thought I might start one. I think there are about 8 or 10 that could win the KD. I believe Omaha Beach will go favored and I am going against him. It may come back to bite me but so be it. I see Maximum Security at 10-1 currently at 8½-1 at 5dimes, he is intriguing but he may be that on race day. Anyone have a strong opinion this early?
  • littlekona
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 11-19-15
    • 5242

    #2
    Unless game winner get horrible draw on far inside I think he is the one to beat...the beauty this race is odds will be nice on anyone outside of Omaha beach....I may even play a big show bet on game winner on the exchanges or mutual if I can get 8/5 or so as I can’t see him off the board outside of getting a horrible inside post
    Comment
    • JBEX
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 01-02-12
      • 23422

      #3
      going to stick with my early positions on ga me winner and tax..all the respect in the world for omaha beach but have to try and beat him..ran a -2 on the ragozin sheets in the arkansas derby which is a monstrous number for a 3yo this time of year..huge pedigree slanted towards distance,hall of fame trainer..read a few days ago he has a quarter crack so not sure if that'll effect him..that's str's territory if he wanders over here
      Comment
      • littlekona
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 11-19-15
        • 5242

        #4
        Many of the “pro’s” say no speed this year....I think many of these guys fail to remember that when horses stretch out that equates to more speed...Derby normally produces fast quarter and half and I expect the same this year with quite a few horses gunning out setting it up for mid for an “ORB” like finish for game winner
        Comment
        • cecil127
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 11-19-09
          • 7310

          #5
          code of honor and game winner are who I have in the future pool...played the DD (future) with bella fina or jaywalk winning the oaks.
          Comment
          • littlekona
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 11-19-15
            • 5242

            #6
            Originally posted by cecil127
            code of honor and game winner are who I have in the future pool...played the DD (future) with bella fina or jaywalk winning the oaks.
            bella fina is just a beast. That last race was huge. Jaywalk on the other hand has fallen off cliff. what was the DD future game winner to Bella paying?
            Comment
            • coach 40/40
              SBR High Roller
              • 12-22-17
              • 171

              #7
              The last 6 derby’s all favorites won it also coincides with the point system being created. Close to the pace is the way to go . You just have to find it. I will be back later once post positions are drawn.
              Comment
              • BigJay
                SBR MVP
                • 01-14-12
                • 3485

                #8
                I have several futures as well that I’m liking:
                Roadster 20/1 risking $160
                Code of Honor 35/1 risking $40
                improbable 17/1 risking $30
                And plus q parfait 55/1 $10

                I don’t really think improbable or game winner want the mile and a quarter. Really liking my roadster future but this thing is as wide open a derby as we’ve seen in awhile. There are literally about 10-12 horses that wouldn’t surprise me if they won. Last time I said that Mine that Bird won and he was one of the few long shots I didn’t play that year.
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                • cecil127
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 11-19-09
                  • 7310

                  #9
                  Originally posted by littlekona
                  bella fina is just a beast. That last race was huge. Jaywalk on the other hand has fallen off cliff. what was the DD future game winner to Bella paying?
                  dont know....not aware of any probable payouts posted.
                  Comment
                  • Pigpen
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-09-08
                    • 2750

                    #10
                    Originally posted by littlekona
                    bella fina is just a beast. That last race was huge. Jaywalk on the other hand has fallen off cliff. what was the DD future game winner to Bella paying?
                    I just looked and it is paying $17.60 on a 1 dollar ticket.
                    Comment
                    • Pigpen
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-09-08
                      • 2750

                      #11


                      Here is the KD & KO futures link
                      Comment
                      • littlekona
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 11-19-15
                        • 5242

                        #12
                        Originally posted by BigJay
                        I have several futures as well that I’m liking:
                        Roadster 20/1 risking $160
                        Code of Honor 35/1 risking $40
                        improbable 17/1 risking $30
                        And plus q parfait 55/1 $10

                        I don’t really think improbable or game winner want the mile and a quarter. Really liking my roadster future but this thing is as wide open a derby as we’ve seen in awhile. There are literally about 10-12 horses that wouldn’t surprise me if they won. Last time I said that Mine that Bird won and he was one of the few long shots I didn’t play that year.
                        Wow bigjay...you my friend are the definition of finding value....those are excellent odds win or lose...
                        Comment
                        • Pigpen
                          SBR MVP
                          • 05-09-08
                          • 2750

                          #13


                          Video of workouts and commentary. No volume until 16:45
                          Comment
                          • StackinGreen
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 10-09-10
                            • 12140

                            #14
                            Originally posted by BigJay
                            I have several futures as well that I’m liking:
                            Roadster 20/1 risking $160
                            Code of Honor 35/1 risking $40
                            improbable 17/1 risking $30
                            And plus q parfait 55/1 $10

                            I don’t really think improbable or game winner want the mile and a quarter. Really liking my roadster future but this thing is as wide open a derby as we’ve seen in awhile. There are literally about 10-12 horses that wouldn’t surprise me if they won. Last time I said that Mine that Bird won and he was one of the few long shots I didn’t play that year.
                            Your Roadster is by far your best, the problem is that you can argue that Game Winner is still better, even after the SA Derby.

                            My opinion, likely to your chagrin, is that the best 5 horses are WAY better than the rest.

                            I'm keying 3 with the other 2 for the trifecta big. Sometimes the Derby pays crazy because it is crazy, other times, like in more recent years, it pays great with chalk because there is so much silly money out there.
                            Comment
                            • littlekona
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 11-19-15
                              • 5242

                              #15
                              Off topic but man watching the derby commercials during nhl tonight and just about threw up watching all the celebrities and pretty girls and young guys in suits so not reality
                              Comment
                              • BigdaddyQH
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 07-13-09
                                • 19530

                                #16
                                Baffert will NOT win the Derby this year. He has gone through way too many training interruptions at Santa Anita to have his horses properly fit for the Derby. Just look at the disappointing results he has had so far. I will take Tacitus if the price is right. Vekoma is my long shot if I get 12-1 or more. Don't overlook Omaha Beach. Mandella has had a great year and California horses own the Derby of late.

                                Bella Fina is the easy winner in the Oaks. Unless something unforseen should happen, she romps easily. There is no one near her class.
                                Comment
                                • Memento
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-28-15
                                  • 1192

                                  #17
                                  Omaha Beach...ATB. Tacitus my second choice.
                                  Comment
                                  • littlekona
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 11-19-15
                                    • 5242

                                    #18
                                    so the "experts" are saying no early pace....I subscribe the the contrarian school of thought and with all these pups stretching out to 10 furlongs and all the jocks thinking no speed there will be a contested pace or a runaway speed ala Palace Malice( who would of thought that) Im all in on game winner to mow em down at 7-1+ odds. We know he likes the track and will sit back and make a run and if the front pups go to fast or its contested look out for an ORB type rally
                                    Comment
                                    • Easy-Rider 66
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 02-14-12
                                      • 36100

                                      #19
                                      1 War of Will Tyler Gaffalione Mark Casse 20-1
                                      2 Tax Junior Alvarado Danny Gargan 20-1
                                      3 By My Standards Gabriel Saez Bret Calhoun 20-1
                                      4 Gray Magician Drayden Van Dyke Peter Miller 50-1
                                      5 Improbable Irad Ortiz Jr. Bob Baffert 6-1
                                      6 Vekoma Javier Castellano George Weaver 20-1
                                      7 Maximum Security Luis Saez Jason Servis 10-1
                                      8 Tacitus Jose Ortiz Bill Mott 10-1
                                      9 Plus Que Parfait Ricardo Santana Jr. Brendan Walsh 30-1
                                      10 Cutting Humor Corey Lanerie Todd Pletcher 30-1
                                      11 Haikal Rajiv Maragh Kiaran McLaughlin 30-1
                                      12 Omaha Beach Mike Smith Richard Mandella 4-1
                                      13 Code of Honor John Velazquez Shug McGaughey 15-1
                                      14 Win Win Win Julian Pimentel Mike Trombetta 15-1
                                      15 Master Fencer Julien Leparoux Koichi Tsunoda 50-1
                                      16 Game Winner Joel Rosario Bob Baffert 5-1
                                      17 Roadster Florent Geroux Bob Baffert 6-1
                                      18 Long Range Toddy Jon Court Steve Asmussen 30-1
                                      19 Spinoff Manny Franco Todd Pletcher 30-1
                                      20 Country House Flavien Prat Bill Mott 30-1
                                      AE Bodexpress Chris Landeros Gustavo Delgado 30-1
                                      Comment
                                      • mrginandtonic
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 09-11-09
                                        • 7734

                                        #20
                                        1- War of Will: winner of Risen Star is 20-1
                                        2- Tax: winner of Withers is 20-1
                                        3- By My Standards: winner of Louisiana Derby is 20-1
                                        6- Vekoma: winner of Blue Grass is 20-1
                                        7- Maximum Security: winner of Florida Derby is 10-1
                                        8- Tacitus: winner of Tampa Bay Derby and winner of Wood Memorial is 10-1
                                        9- Plus Que Parfait: winner of UAE Derby is 30-1
                                        10- Cutting Humor: winner of Sunland Derby is 30-1
                                        11- Haikal: winner of Gotham is 30-1
                                        13- Code of Honor: winner of Fountain of Youth is 15-1
                                        17- Long Range Toddy: winner of the Rebel (1st Division) is 30-1


                                        Above are all winners of this year's prep races (except for Tacitus who won two prep races) and their ML odds are just crazy. By post time, I believe their odds will be even higher since everyone will be on the top 4 picks. Am I crazy or does this seem odd? Yes, most of these have lost to top four in their next starts, but who said they can't turn the tables of them. They are all so lightly raced. Gonna start looking at the form and there is gonna be some juicy payouts if only one hit the board....
                                        Comment
                                        • Louisvillekid1
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 10-17-07
                                          • 52143

                                          #21
                                          I think the race is wide open,

                                          Spinoff, BodeExpress(AE), By My Standards all are live imo
                                          Comment
                                          • Pigpen
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 05-09-08
                                            • 2750

                                            #22
                                            Great race this year. I was leaning on War of Will until the pp draw. His trainer said they are going early and fast. Casse said WOW would be on the lead. This is easier said than done. I think Tacitus goes off under his ML odds. The weather has a part to play also. 50% chance of rain.
                                            Comment
                                            • Getch13
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 07-13-18
                                              • 6941

                                              #23
                                              Omaha Beach has been scratched



                                              https://sports.yahoo.com/kentucky-derby-favorite-omaha-beach-scratches-from-race-220807219.html
                                              Comment
                                              • StackinGreen
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 10-09-10
                                                • 12140

                                                #24
                                                16-8-5-7 if I have to

                                                I have 3 tri boxes with those and sprinkling of the longshots I think can hit or at least underneath, which are 1,2,19 ... might throw 3 in there later.

                                                Superfecta I have Game Winner and Tacitus on top. I don't count Baffert out ever, so his two others of course have a place, I just am not using Roadster very much at all.
                                                Comment
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