kentucky derby future bet

[JBEX]

I'm guessing you can do this non-parimutuel in vegas or overseas but I have no experience with that.. realize pool 2 just closed over the weekend


game winner (6-1)

I normally hate to go with the obvious in these type of bets but just feel this horse is outstanding and head over heels better than the rest in here.. all the obvious things..

4/4 as a 2yo..
baffert..
pedigree slanted towards distance..


the big thing for me though is he won the breeders cup juvenile at churchill downs.. besides winning he put up extremely impressive figures (pace and final).. he was within 2 lengths of a pace that was 7 lengths fast according to the brisnet ratings.. the figure he won with is exactly the par for the derby and the fact he did it up close to such a fast pace makes it even more impressive... he's set to begin his 3yo season on march 9 in the san felipe at santa anita

[Easy-Rider 66]

Guess you think Game Winner will be the favorite come first Sat of May? I think you get a little real value in putting in now assuming he goes off 2/1 or 5/2 Derby Day. But, If he does not run I also assume you lose the money on the wager? Overall, would need a larger value to put in this early with all the things that can go wrong from now till Beginning of May. GL.

[littlekona]

Guess you think Game Winner will be the favorite come first Sat of May? I think you get a little real value in putting in now assuming he goes off 2/1 or 5/2 Derby Day. But, If he does not run I also assume you lose the money on the wager? Overall, would need a larger value to put in this early with all the things that can go wrong from now till Beginning of May. GL.

He sure is a beast! Only thing though is these future bets taking favorites 6-1 is very tough as IF he does make it to derby in a field of 20 he may be 5-1 or so favorite and thats if everything goes perfect....Field or 50-1 shots you think have huge upside are only logical bets I would think...

[Easy-Rider 66]

He sure is a beast! Only thing though is these future bets taking favorites 6-1 is very tough as IF he does make it to derby in a field of 20 he may be 5-1 or so favorite and thats if everything goes perfect....Field or 50-1 shots you think have huge upside are only logical bets I would think...

Yeah Agree.

[Easy-Rider 66]

He sure is a beast! Only thing though is these future bets taking favorites 6-1 is very tough as IF he does make it to derby in a field of 20 he may be 5-1 or so favorite and thats if everything goes perfect....Field or 50-1 shots you think have huge upside are only logical bets I would think...

And Jbex must think GW is going off much lower than 6/1 come Derby day. Or makes absolutely no sense to put in now. JBEX must be thinking 2/1.

[Easy-Rider 66]

. Bourbon War	50-1	31-1
2. Coliseum	15-1	22-1
3. Game Winner	6-1	5-1
4. Global Campaign	50-1	22-1
5. Gray Attempt	50-1	99-1
6. Gunmetal Gray	20-1	34-1
7. Harvey Wallbanger	20-1	28-1
8. Hidden Scroll	12-1	7-1
9. Improbable	8-1	7-1
10. Instagrand	10-1	10-1
11. Knicks Go	30-1	78-1
12. Limonite	50-1	60-1
13. Maximus Mischief	20-1	38-1
14. Mucho Gusto	15-1	23-1
15. Network Effect	30-1	40-1
16. Owendale	50-1	99-1
17. Signalman	20-1	28-1
18. Tacitus	50-1	96-1
19. Tax	20-1	63-1
20. Vekoma	30-1	41-1
21. Walking Thunder	50-1	99-1
22. War of Will	30-1	17-1
23. Win Win Win	30-1	35-1
24. All Other 3-Year-Olds	5-2	5-2

[JBEX]

there is a confluence of things on this horse that is much better than your typical derby future horse..if he mashes the san felipe and santa anita derby and you have average performances by horses in the other prep races I could see 9-5 on him in the derby

[littlekona]

there is a confluence of things on this horse that is much better than your typical derby future horse..if he mashes the san felipe and santa anita derby and you have average performances by horses in the other prep races I could see 9-5 on him in the derby

One thing for sure is the favorite does much better last few years..years back it was an instant toss....wonder if Baffert keeps him in Cali or ships to Arkansas derby which he likes to do

[JBEX]

One thing for sure is the favorite does much better last few years..years back it was an instant toss....wonder if Baffert keeps him in Cali or ships to Arkansas derby which he likes to do

amercan pharoah ran in the rebel prior to the arkansas derby... guess with game winner making his 3yo debut in the san felipe he'll probably follow up in the santa anita derby..don't think they'd ship him an additional time and he already knows that he handles churchill

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey JBEX: Is this real coins or just a suggestion? Still have time with pool 3 coming up.

[JBEX]

Hey JBEX: Is this real coins or just a suggestion? Still have time with pool 3 coming up.

pool 3 will coincide with the running of the san felipe.. I definitely want in before that if you can do it non pari-mutuel.. I'm obviously not going out on a limb with this pick so the sooner the better npi.. I'm not betting as usual but anything I post in here in general I feel is worth a bet or I wouldn't post it

[Easy-Rider 66]

pool 3 will coincide with the running of the san felipe.. I definitely want in before that if you can do it non pari-mutuel.. I'm obviously not going out on a limb with this pick so the sooner the better npi.. I'm not betting as usual but anything I post in here in general I feel is worth a bet or I wouldn't post it

OK. THx for the take. Have not looked at PP's for the contenders but liked what you said about Game Winner. GL.

[JBEX]

OK. THx for the take. Have not looked at PP's for the contenders but liked what you said about Game Winner. GL.

thanks easy.. there's a link to them I left in hart's thread if you want to look.. have anything you want to discuss or like put it in here

[JBEX]

thanks easy.. there's a link to them I left in hart's thread if you want to look.. have anything you want to discuss or like put it in here

if anyone has an opinion feel free to post

[JBEX]

https://www.americasbestracing.net/the-sport/2018-breeders-cup-juvenile-victor-game-winner-could-be-even-better-2019

[str]

I would typically caution against taking a future 3 months out on 5-1. So many things must go right to gain a 12.00 mutual instead of a 5.80 mutual. ( I assume that the 5-1 pays 12? Or does it only pay 10?) That's kind of a big deal in my mind. Mainly because this is all about math and probability.
But with the hammer lock on talent that Baffert has as well as the previous few years results, I do think that in all probability this horse is the winner if things play out as expected. Problem is, as you know, in horse racing, more often than not, they do not.
I would get clarity on the actual payout before doing anything. But that's because I don't play futures very often at all and if I do, the payout is high enough I don't care about the 2.00 difference. Good chance you already know the answer.
Please let me know if you do. Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

I would typically caution against taking a future 3 months out on 5-1. So many things must go right to gain a 12.00 mutual instead of a 5.80 mutual. ( I assume that the 5-1 pays 12? Or does it only pay 10?) That's kind of a big deal in my mind. Mainly because this is all about math and probability.
But with the hammer lock on talent that Baffert has as well as the previous few years results, I do think that in all probability this horse is the winner if things play out as expected. Problem is, as you know, in horse racing, more often than not, they do not.
I would get clarity on the actual payout before doing anything. But that's because I don't play futures very often at all and if I do, the payout is high enough I don't care about the 2.00 difference. Good chance you already know the answer.
Please let me know if you do. Thanks JBEX.

i have never played future bets outside of the pari-mutuel pools offered 1-2- and 3 months in advance by churchill..thought I saw 6-1 last week but I couldn't tell you where it was offered.I understand it does matter more at low odds whether it's 6 to 1 or 6 for 1..I don't think it was the close of the last pool but I could be wrong..looks like william hill currently has it at risk 2 to win 9 which might cross the line for some people as too low to play..I understand baffert + undefeated 2yo not the recipe for an overlay but the other things may be a bit underappreciated
imo..familiarity with the track,figures (pace and final) and the outstanding pedigree which they broke down further in that link I posted..I just feel this is a lot coming together all on one horse and for the most part just wanted to point this out..personally I think 9-2 would be my "line in the sand" as an odds minimum

[JBEX]

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/both-improbable-game-winner-take-aim-on-san-felipe/

just for frame of reference the #2 horse to game winner is "improbable"(also trained by baffert) who'll also be running in the san felipe on march 9th

[littlekona]

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/t...on-san-felipe/


just for frame of reference the #2 horse to game winner is "improbable"(also trained by baffert) who'll also be running in the san felipe on march 9th

the other baffert, pletcher or asmussen....the other higher price wins many times. One of my best angles

[JBEX]

the other baffert, pletcher or asmussen....the other higher price wins many times. One of my best angles

yes does happen and in this case the other had a very impressive 2yo campaign himself.. I have to think baffert not as concerned who wins this race as much as they both put in good efforts and can move forward.. if that's the case they will not meet again in the same major derby prep.. be interesting to see where hollendofer decides to run instagrand.. I wouldn't want to face baffert's duo in the san felipe in my first race around 2 turns.. think he'll look for another spot

[str]

the other baffert, pletcher or asmussen....the other higher price wins many times. One of my best angles

Good call.

Totally agree.

Great angle for longshot futures.

[littlekona]

Jus happened again w pletcher race 2 Gulfstream chalk eased while 7/2 other pletchr firster wins for fun

[littlekona]

Jus happened again w pletcher race 2 Gulfstream chalk eased while 7/2 other pletchr firster wins for fun

Pletcher stock firing everywhere today big a Tampa gulf....getting hot

[JBEX]

Pletcher stock firing everywhere today big a Tampa gulf....getting hot

don't think they'd run him in the tampa bay derby on 3/9
but they might have a listed stakes for 3yo on the under card that day..have a hunch he ran there for a reason..a big pedigree homebred from deep pocket owners..they certainly don't care that an allowance race is worth significantly less at tampa than gulfstream

[JBEX]

don't think they'd run him in the tampa bay derby on 3/9
but they might have a listed stakes for 3yo on the under card that day..have a hunch he ran there for a reason..a big pedigree homebred from deep pocket owners..they certainly don't care that an allowance race is worth significantly less at tampa than gulfstream

thinking twice about it might just be because alw n1x for 3yo are not the easiest conditions to find this time of year. ..more likely the reason he ran there

[littlekona]

Ohh boy...what a nightmare situation at the great race place.....huge weekend canceled

[littlekona]

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/232388/santa-anita-cancels-racing-indefinitely?utm_source=BHTW&utm_medium=social

indefinitely omg!

[JBEX]

Ohh boy...what a nightmare situation at the great race place.....huge weekend canceled

yes...especially with the top 2 derby prospects stabled there.. guess "game winner" and "improbable"will probably go next week somewhere else

[JBEX]

posted this in h man's thread a little while ago but figured i'd put it here also


tax (59-1) pool 3

i'm not going against my other pick game winner but that's a ridiculous overlay on this horse.. he's a claiborne farm homebred who they foolishly let get away for a 50k tag in his 2nd start at keeneland..thus is after his first start for clm $30k he missed by a half length battling on the front end all the way around @ "6f.. his last two brisnet figures(103,102) are the equal of game winner's 103..only thing is the 103 in the remsen as a 2yo was off a ridiculously slow pace whereas the withers (102) was actually a 2-3 lengths faster than avg pace.. he's by the claiborne stallion arch
out of a giant's causeway mare which is extremely stout breeding


remember though,game winner hit that number as a 2yo in november at churchill downs up close to a scorching fast pace..so that's a different animal altogether.. but stacked up against the others I think 59-1 big overlay.. also,he's got two 1 1/8 mile races under him and those are the races he ran the big figures in.. haven't heard where he'll be going next but more than likely the wood memorial since he's based in ny and is where he ran his last two races

[littlekona]

Great move by oaklawn to spilt rebel....not sure I agree with the draw procedures...with all the hoopla and change in training regimens of the Baffert Santa Anita based horses and chalk in both divisions might be worth a stab in pic 4 to toss em

[JBEX]

Great move by oaklawn to spilt rebel....not sure I agree with the draw procedures...with all the hoopla and change in training regimens of the Baffert Santa Anita based horses and chalk in both divisions might be worth a stab in pic 4 to toss em

absolutely.. now you have 2 nice races to bet on and baffert's duo don't have to run against each other.. he probably still would have rather gone the normal path and pair them against each other at santa anita
if these problems weren't happening there . a little partial to game winner of course but obviously no value there..haven't looked at it yet but I agree with the events that have gone on their cause couldn't have been helped

[littlekona]

absolutely.. now you have 2 nice races to bet on and baffert's duo don't have to run against each other.. he probably still would have rather gone the normal path and pair them against each other at santa anita
if these problems weren't happening there . a little partial to game winner of course but obviously no value there..haven't looked at it yet but I agree with the events that have gone on their cause couldn't have been helped

Game winner is 4/5 improbable 3/5 ml.....

[JBEX]

Game winner is 4/5 improbable 3/5 ml.....

yes I saw ..going to look at the full pp's later today

[littlekona]

The late pick 4 could easily pay 20$ first leg big chalk too..but if one or both of baffert miss could be nice

[littlekona]

The late pick 4 could easily pay 20$ first leg big chalk too..but if one or both of baffert miss could be nice

boxcars! Cali ship horses so far all short! big ticket even if game winner does win now!