Jbex plays

[Easy-Rider 66]

parx..2WP default

R5 #2 my pirate (15-1)
R6 #6 gran fortress (6-1) 666 uh oh
R7 #1a little siete (2-1) 4W

only if this one goes.. not interested in other part of entry


R9 #7 perfect ice (6-1)


mahoning.. 1WP default


R5 #4 john paul jones (8-1)

R6 #7 play ball (20-1)
R7 #2 smoke monster (4-1)
R8 #8 the lady factor (5-2) 3W

Shut out

[Easy-Rider 66]

risked $308/returned $281.60

[JBEX]

risked $308/returned $281.60

70 horses played

[JBEX]

gulfstream

R1 #3 powerline (20-1) 1WP
R3 #3 false accusation (15-1) 1WP
R5 #7 four knights (12-1) 2WP
R10 #4 mister sense (6-1) 3W.. #5 gran red (10-1) 3W


tampa bay.. 2WP default

R5 #5 olivander (4-1) 3WP

[Easy-Rider 66]

gulfstream

R1 #3 powerline (20-1) 1WP
R3 #3 false accusation (15-1) 1WP
R5 #7 four knights (12-1) 2WP
R10 #4 mister sense (6-1) 3W.. #5 gran red (10-1) 3W

A conservative move here JBEX. Close to the vest. Wish I had more discipline on action bets myself. GL today. Not saying yours are action wagers, but at GP default $4 w/p so you are taking a small shot.

[JBEX]

A conservative move here JBEX. Close to the vest. Wish I had more discipline on action bets myself. GL today. Not saying yours are action wagers, but at GP default $4 w/p so you are taking a small shot.

you can't have imo half the money you'd have on a 3 or 4-1 on a 20-1..of course that's the ml and who knows what they'll go off at.. did go 2WP on the12-1 in R5.. either 1 or 2 WP on these types and an occasional 3 but almost never 4 for me

[JBEX]

added tampa 5

[Easy-Rider 66]

you can't have imo half the money you'd have on a 3 or 4-1 on a 20-1..of course that's the ml and who knows what they'll go off at.. did go 2WP on the12-1 in R5.. either 1 or 2 WP on these types and an occasional 3 but almost never 4 for me

Get your drift. I guess it also depends on how strongly you feel about that 20/1 ML. Sometimes you may need to pound so to speak if you really feel the line maker is off. Or if playing real time the public is off.

[JBEX]

Get your drift. I guess it also depends on how strongly you feel about that 20/1 ML. Sometimes you may need to pound so to speak if you really feel the line maker is off. Or if playing real time the public is off.

say you have a 10% edge on a 3-1 vs a 20% edge on a 15-1
..reality most of us have no edge (including me) but have to think positive or why bother..it's more realistic to have a bigger edge at larger odds or you're playing to close to the vest..kind of tight if you only have a 10% edge on higher odds horses ..so using that

10%/3 (odds) = 3.3% bankroll
20%/15 = 1.33% bankroll

this is kelly formula for % bet
% bet = edge (roi)/odds

the logic behind betting more on low odds horses

[Easy-Rider 66]

GP R3: 3 False Accusation down to 5/1. Not sure why? Other than the drop of 2 levels. GL.

[Easy-Rider 66]

GP R3: 3 False Accusation down to 5/1. Not sure why? Other than the drop of 2 levels. GL.

Ran a good race 3rd

[JBEX]

GP R3: 3 False Accusation down to 5/1. Not sure why? Other than the drop of 2 levels. GL.

I'm out running around now..

last..wide post higher level. .
two back..much tougher condition
3 back..win this level off the turf..
4 back. . front end very fast pace..
5-10 back..competetive races at around this level including mdn claimers for a higher tag which is typical
for when they end up running in n2L

[Easy-Rider 66]

I'm out running around now..

last..wide post higher level. .
two back..much tougher condition
3 back..win this level off the turf..
4 back. . front end very fast pace..
5-10 back..competetive races at around this level including mdn claimers for a higher tag which is typical
for when they end up running in n2L

OK thx for rundown. Did not like his last race(at higher level) but ran well today.

[JBEX]

OK thx for rundown. Did not like his last race(at higher level) but ran well today.

saw the race so this is hindsight..but the last race was at least a level ,probaby 2 higher than today..the race was (+15/+9)on avg 6 lengths faster than pars for a clm 35KB race and today going for clm16kb
so that's a significant effort being relatively close to the front there..on other side trainer 1/48 in turf races past 3 years and 2/37 overall this year lol

[Easy-Rider 66]

gulfstream

R1 #3 powerline (20-1) 1WP
R3 #3 false accusation (15-1) 1WP
R5 #7 four knights (12-1) 2WP
R10 #4 mister sense (6-1) 3W.. #5 gran red (10-1) 3W


tampa bay.. 2WP default

R5 #5 olivander (4-1) 3WP

GP R5: winner Pays $48.60

GPR10: 4 scored Pays $33.90

TB R5: placed Pays $7.80

[Easy-Rider 66]

risked $328/returned $371.90

[JBEX]

risked $328/returned $371.90

76 horses played

[JBEX]

aqueduct

R2 #7 iona mobe (8-5) 6W
R4 #5 ro bear (7-2) 3WP
R5 #5 southern phantom (12-1) 3W.. #8 classic romeo (15-1) 3W


R7 #4 big thicket (4-1)

love the 1 turn mile experience he's had here and same jock who rode him for 2 wins (winter/spring)
rides again today (alvarado).. he's probably the best rider up north now that the others are down in florida...linda rice excellent off a long layoff and possible she decided to wait for the winter meet to get through these conditions as the competition a lot softer


R8 #4 d'ambrosio (5-2)

same connections as above .. claimed last out from pletcher for $16k and tries $25kn2l today.. rice has outrageous numbers in many categories including 1st off the claim and beaten favorite


gulfstream

R2 #6 rethinkme (15-1)2WP
R5 #2 miss accuse (9-2) 4W #9 iridescent morn (4-1) 4 W

[JBEX]

finished aqueduct

[JBEX]

added gulf 2 5

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey JBEX: since you have started well maybe continue this tracking segment to start of SARATOGA. Willing to grade until then. I understand you are a long term results guy, and this would give a better idea on how you perform for thousands risked. Think it over. Give you a chance to add Keeneland and Belmont to the mix. Then maybe SAR/DMR we can do a contest.

[JBEX]

Hey JBEX: since you have started well maybe continue this tracking segment to start of SARATOGA. Willing to grade until then. I understand you are a long term results guy, and this would give a better idea on how you perform for thousands risked. Think it over. Give you a chance to add Keeneland and Belmont to the mix. Then maybe SAR/DMR we can do a contest.

not sure I want to do that..think eventually might not want to bother rating picks as it's just another thing to think about..the larger the sample the better but still feel at high avg odds you need a lot of races to have a high confidence level (what it's called)..if I had more specific numbers on that would help with the decision..let's see what happens a little further down the road

[Easy-Rider 66]

not sure I want to do that..think eventually might not want to bother rating picks as it's just another thing to think about..the larger the sample the better but still feel at high avg odds you need a lot of races to have a high confidence level (what it's called)..if I had more specific numbers on that would help with the decision..let's see what happens a little further down the road

ok sounds good

[Easy-Rider 66]

aqueduct

R2 #7 iona mobe (8-5) 6W
R4 #5 ro bear (7-2) 3WP
R5 #5 southern phantom (12-1) 3W.. #8 classic romeo (15-1) 3W


R7 #4 big thicket (4-1)

love the 1 turn mile experience he's had here and same jock who rode him for 2 wins (winter/spring)
rides again today (alvarado).. he's probably the best rider up north now that the others are down in florida...linda rice excellent off a long layoff and possible she decided to wait for the winter meet to get through these conditions as the competition a lot softer


R8 #4 d'ambrosio (5-2)

same connections as above .. claimed last out from pletcher for $16k and tries $25kn2l today.. rice has outrageous numbers in many categories including 1st off the claim and beaten favorite


gulfstream

R2 #6 rethinkme (15-1)2WP
R5 #2 miss accuse (9-2) 4W #9 iridescent morn (4-1) 4 W

GP R5: #2 winner Pays $8.40

AQ R5: 8 scratched

[Easy-Rider 66]

risked $371/returned $380.30

[JBEX]

risked $371/returned $380.30

84 horses played

[JBEX]

probably not many today with tampa closed,aqueduct sloppy and gulf off the turf.. may peak at fairgrounds but not gonna force it

[JBEX]

gulfstream

R1 #2 the kyd in syd (6-1)

[Easy-Rider 66]

Laurel Hawthorne

[Easy-Rider 66]

gulfstream

R1 #2 the kyd in syd (6-1)

3rd

[Easy-Rider 66]

risked $379/returned $380.30

[JBEX]

gulfstream

R2 #3 bluegrass parkway (10-1) 3W .. #7 dull knife (3-1) 3W


probably it today

[Easy-Rider 66]

gulfstream

R2 #3 bluegrass parkway (10-1) 3W .. #7 dull knife (3-1) 3W


probably it today

No dice

[Easy-Rider 66]

risked $385/returned $380.30

[JBEX]

risked $385/returned $380.30

87 horses played