Jbex plays

[Easy-Rider 66]

royal ascot.. thursday

go ahead ...grade them

R1 norfolk stakes g2

#5 land force (12-1)



debuts in april and is 3rd by 2.75 lengths¹...

2nd start 29 days² later breaks maiden..

back in 14 days stakes race 3rd by 2.5 lengths¹..

back in 26 days²

cost 413k and is by probably the hottest first year sire there is whose a son of the overall hottest sire there is scat daddy




R2 hampton court stakes g3

#5 key victory (4-1) 4W


breaks maiden first out at newmarket @ 7f in a 14 horse field ...comes back as a 3yo to win a stakes race at 10f which is pretty impressive for 2nd career start.. tries g1 horses at 10.5f in france and finishes
8th by 3+ lengths in a 16 horse field which is not a horrible performance...back at 10f vs g3 horses which to me is a perfect spot . out of a dubawi mare (top 2 or 3 most expensive stallion) so might have something to do with his ability



R3 ribbledale stakes g2

#8 sarrochi (30-1) 1WP

galileo ot of an oasis dream mare so big pedigree.. broke maiden first out at 7f in a 16 horse field in ireland.. first attempt as a 3yo in a g3 stakes not good but it was on a heavy track so going to excuse it..they thought enough of her to move forward to a g1 in spite of the bad effort last out but again did nothing.. drops back to a G3 @ 10f in his last start and finishes a decent 4th.. the fact they are going to try a G2 with her off what she's done and it's at 12f intrigues me with her pedigree






R4 gold cup g1

#6 vazirabad (9-2)


R5 britania stakes

#8 james cook (20-1) 1WP



R6 king george v handicap

#13 cassini (12-1) 1WP

R1 and 4 Placed Pays $7.20

[Easy-Rider 66]

Risked $159/Returned $58.70

[JBEX]

3rd at belmont yesterday

top 4 odds..

9.40 winner
12.2-1(2nd
2.35-1(3rd
3-1 (4th

$440 triple.. should have paid $216
$1380 super.. should have paid $345

it's not a denomination mistake.. I've got that right

[mrginandtonic]

3rd at belmont yesterday

top 4 odds..

9.40 winner
12.2-1(2nd
2.35-1(3rd
3-1 (4th

$440 triple.. should have paid $216
$1380 super.. should have paid $345

it's not a denomination mistake.. I've got that right

I don’t get it JBex, what is your point?

[Easy-Rider 66]

3rd at belmont yesterday

top 4 odds..

9.40 winner
12.2-1(2nd
2.35-1(3rd
3-1 (4th

$440 triple.. should have paid $216
$1380 super.. should have paid $345

it's not a denomination mistake.. I've got that right

I get your drift JBEX. But you have to hit them to make it relevant. Otherwise you are just pissing in the wind.

[JBEX]

I don’t get it JBex, what is your point?

the point is the public bets triples and superfectas VERY
inefficiently.. everybody always complains (and rightly so)
about the take in this game.. these bets over the long haul pay enormously more than they should.. to get double or triple the amount you're supposed to with these bets with the right odds configuration is a regular occurrence.. in this case the super paid quadruple what it should have.. handicapping takes a back seat to bet structuring but if you have an opinion on a good price horse use that one

[JBEX]

I get your drift JBEX. But you have to hit them to make it relevant. Otherwise you are just pissing in the wind.

I may come back and try it but whether I do or not the figure above are real and I've witnessed things like this over a very long period of time.. it's a major shift in how to do things and you really have to commit to it totally.. going to consider a thread on it but it's tougher to do in advance vs closer to post

[JBEX]

3rd at belmont yesterday

top 4 odds..

9.40 winner
12.2-1(2nd
2.35-1(3rd
3-1 (4th

$440 triple.. should have paid $216
$1380 super.. should have paid $345

it's not a denomination mistake.. I've got that right

another point about this particular top 4 is you basically surrounded a reasonable longshot (12-1) with 3 horses 7-2 and under.. it's not like a reach combination.. play in the 3rd slot also with the same horses also.. again this is not about handicapping but bet structuring.. when you hit you want to get a lot more than you should and the odds is a good way of determining that at least imo

[JBEX]

wow didn't realize the 2 was a half to arrogate.. guess that explains the 279 dam production index.. 2 or 3 decent number for that lol

[JBEX]

added R5 santa anita post 4445

[JBEX]

added R8 post 4445

[Easy-Rider 66]

belmont


R4 #3 susan b anthony (9-2) 3WP
R9 #6 tammany giant (12-1)

santa anita

R5

#2 celturian (10-1) 3W
#3 jet set ruler (6-1) 2W


R8

#5 true testament (2-1) 6W

Bump

[JBEX]

the end

[Easy-Rider 66]

the end

Looks like you are calling it off. I guess the end of the Thread? It was a good ride. Have a feeling you will be back. GL.

[Easy-Rider 66]

belmont


R4 #3 susan b anthony (9-2) 3WP
R9 #6 tammany giant (12-1)

santa anita

R5

#2 celturian (10-1) 3W
#3 jet set ruler (6-1) 2W


R8

#5 true testament (2-1) 6W

SA R8 scratch Others no good.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Risked $174/Returned $58.70 Starting off cold JBEX. But if you come back way too early in the process to draw any conclusions. I remember the contest you played with Hart and I. Think you started off slow there and ended at 90% ROI. Give it some thought. You are due.

[Easy-Rider 66]

post

[JBEX]

[Easy-Rider 66]

GL.

[JBEX]

it'd get lost in your thread easy (rider) but not here


G

[JBEX]

indiana grand... saturday


R8 Indiana oaks

#3 harbor lights (6-1)



R9 indiana derby

#7 title ready (12-1)

why the morning linesmaker thinks this horse will be 12-1is a mystery to me



R10 msw indiana breds

#9 coins of gold (20-1)

first time starter and this is another ridiculous morning line.. 6-1 imo ( I understand that this is what he thinks she will go off at and not what he thinks she should be)

[JBEX]

belmont


R4 #2 that's smart (6-1)

trainer poor over sizeable sample 1st turf and debut..but that should help price along with slow works..might not be well meant but with the way above average pedigree (smart strike out of a stakes winning bernardinI mare) maybe can overcome the other negatives..like that the breeders are the owners vs sold privately as at least there's not the possibility he was dealt cheaply to another party

[JBEX]

just gonna resume here.. other way a pita and accomplishes little


keeneland


R1 #1 time warp (7-2)
R3 #4 fra mauro (10-1)
R4 ex box 7 8 11
R7 #6 pakhet (8-1)
R8 #7 teletap (4-1)

[JBEX]

keeneland

R1 #1 cassidy avenue (12-1)
R4 #10 coexistence (7-2)

[Easy-Rider 66]

Looks like you are calling it off. I guess the end of the Thread? It was a good ride. Have a feeling you will be back. GL.

[JBEX]

all the excursions out of this thread never last and make things more difficult..as they say kiss

[JBEX]

keeneland

R2 #11 interlaken (10-1)
R4 #3 vomba (8-1)


R6 #10 beautiful ballad (10-1)


another fts who cost a bunch relative to her pedigree and this one by one of the best first out sires there is.. working solidly up to this race

R10 #1 b dubya (20-1)

no apparent excuse in his last at churchill but I remember this below the radar trainer hit with a bomb already at this short meet using same jockey.. the allowance races at thistledown around 2 turns match up nicely with the 7 furlong clm 20k beaten claimers here


belmont

R2 #4 back of the watch (8-1)
R6 #6 fortin hill (2-1)

chad has 2 fts in here (other #3) and both are bred off the charts.. but mine cost an absolute fortune relative to his nothing special sire and broodmare info..realize they'll be little value here but going to put that aside here and just play the angle

[JBEX]

added kee 4 and bel 2

[JBEX]

added bel 6

[JBEX]

finished kee

[JBEX]

remington park

R9 #7 way out west (20-1) #4 misdeed (5-1)

[JBEX]

keeneland

R7 #4 hawaiian noises (8-1)
banging on the bongos like a chimpanzee

[JBEX]

belmont

R5 #4 power source (5-1)
R9 #1 let's dance some mo (8-1) #5 burkey's babe (10-1)

[JBEX]

finished bel

[JBEX]

belmont

R5 #4 power source (5-1)
R9 #1 let's dance some mo (8-1) #5 burkey's babe (10-1)

taken off the turf 45 min prior to post time ..#1 was scratched.. other ran 3rd

since i'm mentioning this

R5 winner $16.20