EP36's Pickin' Penguin OVERdose

EaglesPhan36 · 11-15-10, 05:35 PM

11.15.10: SENATORS@FLYERS OVER 5.5 [-105]
Flyers are one of the best offensive clubs at home, putting up 3.8 goals per home contest. They have tallied at least three goals in their last five in a row at home, with four or more goals in four of those. Defensively, they have been solid [2.18 gaa], but have not scored a shutout in 15 games. Ottawa comes in off a shutout of the Bruins, but Boston has been struggling to score at home this year. The Senators have been packing their own punch offensively lately with three or more goals in six of their last ten. OTT goalie Brian Elliott scored the shutout against Boston, but otherwise has given up at least two goals in 11 of his other 12 starts. Flyers PP looms large in this one as they have hit 40% in their last five.

EaglesPhan36 · 11-15-10, 09:25 PM

Record: 8-8 [-1.40]

EaglesPhan36 · 11-16-10, 07:55 PM

11.16.10: DUCKS@STARS OVER 5.5 [-120]
Both games have gone over between these two teams this season. At home, Dallas has been a much better offensive unit, scoring over three goals per game. In their last five at home, they have tallied 19 goals. That should be welcome news after the Stars fell flat on their West Coast trip that saw them net just three goals in three games. Anaheim has had their issues defending on the road, giving up 3.5 goals per road game. They have given up at least two goals in each road game this season. Hiller is set to start again, he has given up two goals in each start vs. Dallas this season. Lehtonen goes for the Stars, he has been torched for eight goals in those two games.

EaglesPhan36 · 11-17-10, 04:06 PM

Record: 8-9 [-2.60]

11.17.10: BLACKHAWKS@OILERS OVER 5.5 [-125]
It's about as good an auto play as Thrashers road games early and that's ANY game started by Nikolai Khabibulin. The Bulin Wall has been smashed for a 3.97 gaa this season and has now allowed a staggering 18 goals in his last three starts. In two starts vs. CHI, he has given up just one goal and allowed four in the other. The Blackhawks are set to go with Turco who gave up four in relief against EDM earlier in the season. He has given up at least three goals in five of seven road starts. Chicago has hit OVERs in six of eight on the road, while Edmonton has hit OVERs in seven of ten overall. Would be a good spot for the Blackhawks PP unit to feast.

EaglesPhan36 · 11-18-10, 10:39 AM

Record: 8-10 [-3.85]

Maybe I need to go OVER on the team total for the opposition of Khabibulin instead. 5-0, could not get the 6th.

EaglesPhan36 · 11-20-10, 05:04 PM

11.20.10: PREDATORS@HURRICANES OVER 5.5 [-105]
Rinne starts again for Nashville, coming off the shutout against Montreal. Ward set to start for Carolina. Nashville has hit for at least three goals in six of their last seven overall. Carolina has seen OVERs in seven of their last eight with some lopsided scorelines. They have given up 21 goals in their last four, while scoring seven goals in three of their last five home games. Nashville would do well to get their PP unit together today as Carolina is struggling, giving up seven PP goals in their last 14 opportunities.

EaglesPhan36 · 11-21-10, 04:50 PM

11.21.10: GRAND SALAMI OVER 23.5 [-105]
Need two to go over for sure and those are the Detroit-Calgary game which has good road-home splits. Second, is Edmonton. Their road totals have been very high in the last 5-6 and even with Khabibulin, it could be another big total today with that bad defense. NYI-ATL is the swing game. ATL home games haven't been quite the goal scoring sprees their road tilts have been, but it's a match-up that could produce a big total.

EaglesPhan36 · 11-22-10, 10:27 AM

Record: 8-12 [-5.95]

Bad run again. Missed the Salami by a goal.

EaglesPhan36 · 11-30-10, 03:43 PM

11.30.10: THRASHERS@AVALANCHE OVER 5.5 [-130]
Over a week since the last play for me, but nothing looked great during that stretch. Tonight though, we get the Atlanta road auto-play. Thrashers have hit OVERs nine of ten times on the road and the Avalanche have hit OVERs in nine of eleven at home to boot. Pavelec has been hot, hot, hot and gets the start, but his hot streak coincided with six straight HOME starts. On the road, he's 0-3 with 14 goals allowed in three starts. Budaj goes for Colorado. He's allowed three goals or more in eight of his last ten starts and hasn't pitched a shutout since November 6th. Power play units should have a lot to say about this one getting over potentially. Bringing out the BIG GUN BAZOOKA PENGUIN!

EaglesPhan36 · 12-07-10, 07:23 PM

Record: 8-13 [-7.25]

12.7.10: LIGHTNING@FLAMES OVER 5.5 [+100]
Penguin posse up. Doobie doobie do. Can't lose forever .... maybe. Tampa has had major issues giving up goals recently with 26 yielded in their last five. Five of their last six road games have gone over with the Lightning scoring 19 in that span and giving up 29. Calgary has been hit or miss, mostly miss at home defensively. They have given up at least three goals in eight of twelve at home. Goal scoring is also up and down for the Flames, but they do manage around three goals per home game. Ellis and Kiprusoff going tonight, both have been struggling some and hopefully that continues.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-08-10, 05:33 PM

Record: 9-13 [-6.25]

EaglesPhan36 · 12-09-10, 05:24 PM

12.9.10: WILD@COYOTES OVER 5 [-120]
Backstrom vs. Bryzgalov tonight in Phoenix. Backstrom's road starts in 2010 have seen five goal totals or higher in four of five. Bryzgalov's home starts have seen five goal totals or higher in six of the last seven with the Phoenix offense scoring three or more goals in that same span. Minnesota has given up at least three goals in eight of their last ten with all eight of those hitting for at least five goals.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-10-10, 10:33 AM

Record: 9-13-1 [-6.25]

EaglesPhan36 · 12-10-10, 03:28 PM

12.10.10: HURRICANES@STARS OVER 5.5 [-115]
Carolina has been a good OVERs team on the road with the OVER hitting in 10 of 14. Looks like Ward vs. Raycroft. Ward was beat up for four goals when these teams played in Carolina in November in a 4-1 Dallas win. Raycroft has been either real good or real bad in five starts with nine goals allowed in his two losses and two goals allowed in three wins. Carolina's defense has been pretty ragged on the road with three or more goals allowed in 12 of 14. In their last five on the road, they have given up 20 goals and that includes one shutout of Boston. Offensively, the Canes do well on the road for three goals per game to put up with their porous defense. The Stars have statistically been better at home with a goals scoring average over three. In seven of their last ten at home, they have tallied at least three goals.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-11-10, 04:25 PM

Record: 9-14-1 [-7.40]

12.11.10: LIGHTNING@CANUCKS OVER 6 [-110]
Plugging away. Tampa has been an OVERs machine recently with seven of their last eight going over and six of those seven clearing six goals. They are giving up almost four goals per road game with 31 goals given up in their last seven overall. Vancouver is putting 3.46 goals per game at home with four of their last six at home going over.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-15-10, 12:26 PM

Record: 10-14-1 [-6.40]

12.15.10: THRASHERS@LIGHTNING OVER 6 [-125]
Riding the Lightning until the goals stop following them. Nine straight now with at least six goals and eight of those with seven goals or better. TB has given up four or more in seven of those. At home, they have only given up less than three goals in two of eleven. They average almost four goals per home game. ATL has been great with goals on the road with 12 of 15 finding them with three goals or better. Defensively, they've given up at least three in that same amount. Pavelec for the Thrashers. Mike Smith for the Lightning. Smith has given up nine goals in his last two starts. Two meetings this season between these two have yielded 15 goals and two overs on totals of six.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-16-10, 05:58 PM

Record: 10-15-1 [-7.65]

12.16.10: COYOTES@RANGERS OVER 5.5 [+125]
Battle of the back-ups with LaBarbera & Biron. Rangers have somehow found offense in their last few with eleven goals over their last two games. Coyotes are hit and miss, but have bounced back from being shutout this season pretty well with four goals twice in the three games following shutouts. If you can find a total of five out there somewhere, I like it even better. The Penguin is pissed at his lack of picking prowess, so he puts out the BIG GUN 'GUIN to try and mow down a win.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-17-10, 05:36 PM

Record: 11-15-1 [-6.40]

12.17.10: SABRES@PANTHERS OVER 5 [-130]
Miller vs. Vokoun. Miller has seen totals hit at least five in six of his nine road starts. Five of his last six starts overall have hit at least five or better and he has given up 12 goals in his last four starts. Vokoun has had a rougher go of it at home with three goals or more scored in eight of his eleven home starts. In eight of his last eleven starts overall, he has conceded three goals or more. The Panthers have scored multiple goals in seven of their last eight, while the Sabres have done the same in five of their last six.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-17-10, 09:05 PM

Record: 12-15-1 [-5.40]

Whoa. That's a winning streak yo.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-20-10, 04:38 PM

12.20.20: COYOTES@PENGUINS OVER 5.5 [-105]
Coyotes still have to plug & play with LaBarbera and that's a good auto-play on the OVER for me until it proves otherwise. Five of his seven starts this season have gone OVERs and he's given up three goals in each of this last two in place of the injured Bryzgalov. PHX has also been surprisingly effective scoring with 12 goals in their last four. Pens are in a mini-slump following their long win streak. Fleury is likely to get the start today. He's yielded two goals or more in five of his last six, but has not given up more than three in that stretch. Coyotes chased Fleury early in their meeting in PHX in a 4-3 Penguins win in a shootout. This one should give PIT a chance to get back on track with PHX giving up 80 shots in LaBarbera's two starts.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-21-10, 04:03 PM

Record: 13-15-1 [-4.40]

12.21.10: KINGS@AVALANCHE OVER 5.5 [-105]
Quick vs. Anderson is the expected goalie match-up. With this match-up back in October, there were ten goals between the two with Anderson giving up six and Quick, four. Over his last two starts, Quick has struggled giving up eight goals. Kings offense had been solid until netting just two in Chicago last time. Prior to that, their road trip had started with 15 goals in three games. For Colorado, Anderson has given up at least two goals in eight straight and OVERs in his home starts have hit in six of seven this season. In all, only five of his 16 starts have gone UNDER this season. Colorado is averaging just over four goals per home start, while yielding just over three. Let's get some goals, doobie doobie do.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-27-10, 05:13 PM

Record: 13-16-1 [-5.45]

12.27.10: SABRES@FLAMES OVER 5 [-125]
Looks like Ryan Miller vs. Miikka Kiprusoff tonight. Kiprusoff has been steady, but unspectacular lately with at least two goals given up in his last nine straight starts. As result, just two of those games have failed to reach five goals for the total. At home, Calgary has been much better at putting in the puck in the net. They average 3.13 goals at home, compared to barely over two goals per road tilt. Miller has also been solid, but unspectacular with at least two goals allowed in eight straight starts. Just one of those failed to go to five goals. Buffalo is yielding just over three goals per road game this season and have only given up less than three goals in two of their last ten on the road.

EaglesPhan36 · 12-28-10, 09:38 AM

Record: 14-16-1 [-4.45]

EaglesPhan36 · 12-28-10, 03:06 PM

12.28.10: THRASHERS@PENGUINS OVER 5.5 [-123]
Pavelec vs. Fleury tonight. It's the third time these two teams have met with five goals in the last game [scoreless final period] and six in the first. The Pens have hit Pavelec for six goals in those two starts. Atlanta got Fleury for four. Pavelec has been solid all season, but he has been more susceptible on the road with a 2.36 gaa, compared to 1.70 at home. He is also 0-6 lifetime vs. PIT with a 4.42 gaa. Fleury has solid home numbers and career numbers vs. ATL, both around 2.20 gaa. PIT has been scoring with regularity for Fleury lately with at least three goals in seven of his last ten starts. ATL remains pretty solid hitting OVERs on the road with 12 of 18 road games hitting in that direction this season, including three of their last five. The power play units for both could loom large here. Both have struggled recently, but go against PK units - especially Pittsburgh - that are also not doing well. The Pens have given up a PP goal in eight of their last ten, while the Thrashers have given up at least one PP goal in four of their last five - including three in one game to Toronto.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-04-11, 05:15 PM

Record: 15-16-1 [-3.45]

1.4.11: SABRES@AVALANCHE OVER 5.5 [-110]
Should be Miller vs. Budaj. Budaj has given up at least three goals in each of his last nine starts. Should be no shocker than that seven of those have resulted in OVERs. Miller has had some problems of late with 17 goals allowed in his last four starts. On the road, Miller has seen OVERs in three of his last four. Buffalo has found some solid offense of late with a season best seven goals in their last game and 21 goals scored in their last five. Colorado is still averaging over 3.5 goals per game despite a mini-slump there lately. The Avalanche will need to rediscover their offense, but could do so against a Buffalo squad that has allowed at least three goals in seven of their last ten overall. Colorado is still an OVERs team at home with 12 in 19 games.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-05-11, 12:56 AM

Record: 16-16-1 [-2.45]

Got the record rolling in the right direction, just need the units to follow now.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-05-11, 07:21 PM

1.5.11: THRASHERS@PANTHERS OVER 5.5 [+100]
Pavelec vs. Vokoun. That was the match-up last time these two teams met in Atlanta and it was a goalie's duel with a 2-1 Florida win. Vokoun allowed one goal in that start, but four against the Thrashers in their 4-3 loss on November 3rd in Florida. Pavelec has been a different goalie on the road, yielding at least three goals in seven of his last nine road starts, six of those going OVERs. Vokoun is in off a shutout of the Rangers at home. He's sandwiched shutouts between three straight games where he gave up three goals in each. At home, Vokoun has been solid with a 2.57 gaa. ATL has been a solid OVERs club on the road with OVER hitting in 14 of 21. FLA is 50-50 at home with seven each O&U. Florida is better offensively at home, hitting for just over three goals per game. They have scored at least three in six of their last ten and have at least two in nine straight. Atlanta needs to get back to putting the puck on the net with goals being sporadic of late. They did net four in Montreal last time out and need to get to Vokoun early.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-06-11, 02:39 PM

Record: 16-17-1 [-3.45]

1.6.11: BLUES@MAPLE LEAFS OVER 5 [-140]
Hate juicing up, but I think this one is good for at least a push. St.Louis is still a poor defensive club on the road with a 3.41 gaa average. Halak likely to start tonight. In his 12 road starts, eight have met or exceeded five goal totals. 19 of his 30 starts overall have hit for at least five goals. Overall, he has given up at least three goals in six of his last seven starts. Gustavsson for Toronto in net. 13 of his 21 starts have resulted in five goals or more, including nine straight. At home, six straight starts for him have seen the same. Toronto is 2nd from the bottom in penalty killing, so PP opportunities could be large. Unfortunately both lack in that area, but Toronto is stronger at home on the job.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-06-11, 09:26 PM

Record: 17-17-1 [-2.45]

EaglesPhan36 · 01-07-11, 06:54 PM

1.7.11: HURRICANES@PANTHERS OVER 5.5 [+118]
Peters vs. Vokoun. Peters hasn't made a start in 2011 and has just six starts for Carolina this season. Four of those have gone OVERs with Peters yielding at least three goals in five of his six starts. Carolina remains a good OVERs option on the road, hitting that in 13 of 22. Should be a good mix with Carolina giving up over three goals per game, while Florida tallies just over three per home game. Vokoun has been chased from one start vs. Carolina this season and gave up four goals in the other. Florida has given up at least three goals in seven of their last ten overall. In four meetings this season, three OVERs have cashed. I'll give the plus money a go tonight.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-07-11, 10:06 PM

Record: 18-17-1 [-1.27]

EaglesPhan36 · 01-09-11, 01:19 PM

1.9.11: THRASHERS@HURRICANES OVER 5.5 [-115]
Pavelec vs. Peters. Pavelec is coming off one of his worst performances, pulled after allowing five goals in 24 shots against Toronto. In his last eight starts, six of those have seen him give up at least three goals. Peters fills in for Ward again and Peters has now given up at least three goals in six of his seven starts. Only one his starts hasn't gone OVERs. ATL has hit OVERs in 14 of 22 on the road this season where they give up over 3.3 goals per game. Carolina is in a good vein of scoring with at least three goals in five of their last six. PPs loom large here, especially the Canes who could feast on the Thrashers who gave up 5 PP goals vs. TOR.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-09-11, 03:50 PM

Record: 19-17-1 [-0.27]

Closing in on positive units. That would be loverly!

EaglesPhan36 · 01-11-11, 04:48 PM

1.11.11: COYOTES@BLUE JACKETS OVER 5.5 [+118]
Bryzgalov vs. Garon. Garon has been absolute shit in his last four starts with four goals or more given up in each. That includes a 4-2 loss at PHX to the Coyotes. Bryzgalov has given up at least three in five of his last seven starts. The Jackets have surrendered at least three goals in eight of their last ten and have hit OVERs in four of their last five. Columbus' PK has been poor lately, so PHX would do well to fine tune their PP tonight and get some pucks in that way - although they have gone six straight games with no PP goals.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-11-11, 09:03 PM

Record: 20-17-1 [+0.91]

Positive units, yee haw.