Hotcross NHL 2019-20 thread

**hotcross** · 11-15-19, 01:07 AM

Results: Nov.14 = -4.00 units (1-4 W/L)
OVERALL: -22.89 units (27-44-2 W/L/D = .380 pct)

Another frustrating night, but smallish size bets coincide with my confidence level on them. Minnesota got the regulation win, but almost seemed like they didn't even try to get the empty net tally at the end.

LA Kings won early in the overtime period after tying the game late, about -150 favorite at home vs Detroit, it was a good spot for the Kings but just very risky to lay -150 on them against anyone, hence the regulation bet, which lost.

Vancouver is really struggling offensively, the spot Dallas had to deal with on a back-to-back game explained why Vancouver was a pretty sizable favorite, closed around -150, but once again the Canucks couldn't score enough. I had the Overtime pick in that game, which was alive trailing 3-2 score until a couple minutes left just before they would have pulled the goalie, they allowed a Dallas goal to put it away 4-2.

**hotcross** · 11-15-19, 06:54 PM

Friday Nov.15

OVERTIME +320 BOS@TOR // 1.00 unit to win 3.20

TORONTO -110 ML // 2.20 units to win 2.00

MONTREAL +135 ML // 3.00 units to win 4.05

**hotcross** · 11-15-19, 09:59 PM

Results: Nov.15 = +0.85 units (1-2 W/L)
OVERALL: -22.04 units (28-46-2 W/L/D = .378 pct)

You know.... I have a new theory about Coach Mike Babcock of the Toronto Maple Leafs.... he WANTS to be fired, so maybe he can get paid his contract and go south for the winter to the Bahamas or somewhere. They are just so bad defensively. I know the Bruins always spell trouble for this team, but 2-2 tied to start the third period, and give up a goal 11 seconds in, Marchand drove the net and nobody attempted to get him.

So now that I'm ready to give up on the Leafs, that probably means they'll go on a winning streak.

**hotcross** · 11-16-19, 01:51 PM

Saturday Nov.16

MINNESOTA -1 +195 alternative puckline // 1.00 units to win 1.95

OVERTIME +330 VGS@LAK // 1.00 unit to win 3.30

will be posting more as the day goes along.........

**hotcross** · 11-16-19, 03:33 PM

adding ::

CALGARY -105 first period moneyline // 3.15 units to win 3.00
*push if tied end 1p

**hotcross** · 11-16-19, 05:35 PM

adding ::

BOSTON -125 ML // 2.50 units to win 2.00

**hotcross** · 11-16-19, 06:23 PM

adding ::

BUFFALO -190 ML // 5.00 units to win 2.63

**hotcross** · 11-16-19, 07:53 PM

adding ::

UNDER 6.5 -106 CHI@NSH // 2.12 units to win 2.00

**hotcross** · 11-19-19, 06:57 PM

Results: Nov.16 = -3.99 units (1-4-1 W/L/D)
OVERALL: -26.03 units (29-50-2 W/L/D = .367 pct)

Tuesday Nov.19

PITTSBURGH -125 ML // 2.50 units to win 2.00

FLORIDA -0.5 +110 regulation win // 2.00 units to win 2.20

sorry again for the late post before gametime.....still working on the later games....

**hotcross** · 11-19-19, 07:44 PM

adding ::

NASHVILLE -1 -115 puckline *buy 0.5 goal // 5.75 units to win 5.00

still working....

**Philmill** · 11-20-19, 01:53 AM

Damn hotcross we are both getting are balls busted..... I am still looking for that break-out team....(Tampa Bay last year)...

Let's make a nice run for the end of the year...!!!! #Sub forum killers....)(*&^%$$$$#@!

**hotcross** · 11-20-19, 05:48 PM

you're right, was thinking along the same lines...gotta be careful with choosing which teams to trust. A lot of close games, that's the nature of the league, who has what it takes to bring home the win.

Another confusing thing is some teams have won, despite a rash of injuries. For example, that's the case with Dallas Stars during this run they're on. It is not logical to me.

**hotcross** · 11-20-19, 06:41 PM

Results: Nov.16 = -6.05 units (1-2 W/L)
OVERALL: -32.08 units (30-52-3 W/L/D = .366 pct)

I don't call it a bad beat, but Pittburgh never trailed in yesterday's game, but allowed the Islanders to comeback from 2-goals down in the 3rd period, including the 6-on-5 goal to force overtime, then lost in OT. Then, Nashville didn't start on time, allowing Winnipeg to sore 20-seconds in, and that was the difference in their 2-1 home loss.

Record keeping....forgot to put the Draw on my record from Nov.16, so that's added on now. I track the pushes, but they don't factor into my win percentage.

Wed. Nov.20

MONTREAL -1 -130 puckline *buy 0.5 goal // 6.50 units to win 5.00

This is the correct side for the game, only thing that might be a concern is the potential for overtime, not specifically because of the matchup, but becaue the league has seen a lot of OT games, so I'm taking the -1 spread. Both teams are on a back-to-back tonight, and Ottawa won 5 of their last 7 games, however they have not won on the road in Montreal in a long time.

Meanwhile, the Canadiens lost their last 2 games to questionable teams, New Jersey and then last night in Columbus. But Columbus has played them well in recent history, so it wasn't that big of a surprise to me. Goalie Carey Price is starting the back-to-back, which tells me he wants to get back after it and get the win tonight, rather than allowing the backup to get the start. Ottawa opted to start Craig Anderson tonight on the back-to-back, but his stats are inferior to Mr. Price's.

Some might look at the weakness of the Montreal special teams, both Power Play and Penalty kill, however Ottawa does not have a good Power Play either. So yes Montreal is the public play, but I believe its easily the correct side for tonight's short 2-game card tonight.

**hotcross** · 11-20-19, 07:58 PM

Game note: Montreal took a double-minor High Sticking penalty early, but successfully killed it. Ottawa hardly got any good shots. Good energy, good job so far by the home team.

**hotcross** · 11-20-19, 10:28 PM

Results: Nov.20 = -6.50 units (0-1 W/L)
OVERALL: -38.58 units (30-53-3 W/L/D = .361 pct)

Guess I should have just played the Overtime prop....smelled it, but thought Montreal would dominate, and they did, just couldn't score. Which is exactly what I was talking about in the first post today. Just frustrating, was on the right side this game, and I don't normally say that.... those who took Ottawa got lucky, I saw the estimated percentages for consensus and plenty people did.

It will turn around for me if I keep working hard at it, just sucks to be in the hole. My spread bets and regulation bets have not done well so far.

**hotcross** · 11-21-19, 06:32 PM

Thurs. Nov.21

COLUMBUS -0.5 -115 regulation win // 5.75 units to win 5.00

Columbus won't be this big of a favorite again for awhile. They have dominated Detroit in recent history. This is not the type of team they go to Overtime against. I'm not saying Columbus is the type of team that can be trusted this year, but they came off a good home win earlier in the week against Montreal, now tonight they have a team they should beat, Detroit is also decimated with injuries.

Still working the later games, trying to stick with the highly probable winners only.

**Hman** · 11-21-19, 06:56 PM

GL tonight

**hotcross** · 11-22-19, 07:36 PM

Results: Nov.21 = +5.00 units (1-0 W/L)
OVERALL: -33.58 units (31-53-3 W/L/D = .369 pct)

Columbus got the win in regulation, but they had to comeback in the third period to do it. At least I didn't get screwed by Overtime.

Gotta admit, tonight's games confused me a lot. I would have been on both of the road teams New Jersey and New York, but passed on these games and will look at the big Saturday schedule. Stronger lean on New York Rangers, they have played a couple less games than Ottawa so far this month, meaning should be fresher, plus they won that big televised game vs Washington on Wed. So I don't get the love for Ottawa as a thin home favorite.... they have been on a run, yes but who have they beat and by what scores.... Ottawa playing better than expected perhaps, but they were so far the inferior team last game at Montreal yet goalie Craig Anderson was totally on his game and stole that one, forced Overtime and got the win. Tonight Ottawa starting Anders Nilsson in net vs King Henrik for the Rangers, who have the first of a back-to-back tonight and travel to Montreal for Saturday. The main thing that made this a pass for me is that Rangers have struggled on this particular road trip in recent years, often losing both games. I think they should throttle the Senators tonight, but just maybe the Ottawa is on an emotional high and can keep it rolling tonight. Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Anthony Duclair have looked really good lately.

**hotcross** · 11-22-19, 07:46 PM

and bang, right after I finished that post, game started and Ottawa scored 57-seconds in.

Pittsburgh leads their game 1-0 after the first period.

Had the feeling I would wind up losing both games if I played them tonight.

**hotcross** · 11-23-19, 12:20 PM

Saturday Nov.23

TEAM TOTAL CALGARY OVER 2.5 -140 // 1.40 units to win 1.00

a play for one of the early games..... more later

**hotcross** · 11-23-19, 04:05 PM

adding ::

MONTREAL -0.5 -125 regulation win // 5.00 units to win 4.00

**hotcross** · 11-23-19, 06:42 PM

adding ::

UNDER 6.5 +110 FLA@CAR // 1.00 units to win 1.10

UNDER 6 -105 DET@NJ // 1.05 units to win 1.00

**hotcross** · 11-23-19, 06:59 PM

adding ::

CAROLINA -1 +105 puckline *buy 0.5 goal // 1.00 unit to win 1.05

**hotcross** · 11-23-19, 08:03 PM

adding ::

NASHVILLE +107 ML // 1.00 units to win 1.07

**hotcross** · 11-23-19, 08:50 PM

adding ::

SAN JOSE -107 ML // 2.14 units to win 2.00

Last game of the day, with a brief write-up. Seems like I'm seeing the games better today....so I'll probably lose this one!

The odds are about even for both teams on this one. Islanders are on an incredible 17-game point streak, they actually won 16 of 17 with an Overtime loss vs Pittsburgh on Nov.7 (for reference, that was 6 games ago). Although they have done so against some good/decent teams, those were almost all against Eastern Conference teams, you have to look back towards the beginning of the streak for the 3 Western opponents, home win vs St.Louis, won at Winnipeg the next night, then a couple games later a home win vs Arizona.

The situation tonight is travel across the country to San Jose, who have been playing better and more passionate recently, I think. Maybe San Jose could be seen as similar style of game to the typical Eastern teams, but they can score when on their game, and this should be a decent opportunity to do just that against Semyon Varlamov starting in net for New York tonight. The Islanders stay in California for Monday and Wed. on this trip where they will also compete against Anaheim and the LA Kings. Of those 3 matchups, San Jose would be the toughest game for them in my estimation, especially when you consider its the first game out in California with a much later start time than the Islanders normally deal with.

**hotcross** · 11-25-19, 03:38 AM

Results: Nov.23 = +1.22 units (5-1-1 W/L/D)
OVERALL: -32.36 units (36-54-4 W/L/D = .400 pct)

5-1-1 W/L/D on Saturday only profited +1.22 units because of the 9 unit swing game on Montreal for my big bet of the day loser....

they blew a 4-0 lead in that game, were up 3-0 at the end of 1p, scored early in 2p to get up 4-0, but allowed the next 3 goals to end 2p with a 4-3 lead. Montreal then scored the first goal of 3p to go up 5-3 before allowing Rangers score 3 in a row again. Didn't even go to Overtime, losing in regulation. Out of curiosity I looked at live odds when they were up 3-0 and was around +1150 ML Live to bet Rangers, which I didn't do, that would be throwing money away, right?

Was so frustrated that any team could blow that lead 4-0. Why pay coach Claude Julien $5 Million per year when he can allow that to happen? It's not about losing the bet, its about any team looking like clowns to do that, I don't care who they are playing. I guess its what the league has become, like they don't want teams to play "keep away" anymore and just protect the puck for the rest of the game.

I'd welcome any comments or input about this.

**hotcross** · 11-25-19, 06:54 PM

Monday Nov.25

CALGARY +127 ML // 1.00 unit to win 1.27

CALGARY -0.5 +230 regulation win // 1.00 unit to win 2.30

CALGARY -1.5 +310 alternative puckline // 1.00 unit to win 3.10

MINNESOTA -0.5 +135 regulation win // 1.60 units to win 2.16

OVERTIME +450 BUF@TB // 1.00 unit to win 4.50

TAMPA BAY -1 -153 puckline *buy 0.5 goal // 3.06 units to win 2.00

COLUMBUS -1 -103 puckline *buy 0.5 goal // 1.03 units to win 1.00

I'm playing the volume of picks again, since that seemed to work on Saturday for me. Still working on the later games...

**hotcross** · 11-25-19, 07:40 PM

adding ::

NASHVILLE -0.5 +110 regulation win // 1.00 unit to win 1.10

NASHVILLE -1 +115 puckline * buy 0.5 goal // 1.00 unit to win 1.15

**hotcross** · 11-25-19, 08:55 PM

last 2 games are confusing to me, passing on those

Islanders at Ducks

Sharks at Kings -
for some reason seen love for the Kings and the odds have moved that way also... if there's a reason for it, I'm missing whatever that might be

**hotcross** · 11-26-19, 03:33 AM

Results: Nov.25 = -4.60 units (1-6-2 W/L/D)
OVERALL: -36.96 units (37-60-6 W/L/D = .381 pct)

Apparently the entire card was confusing to me on Monday, as shown by the results.

Calgary was a speculative pick, so that one doesn't bother me too much, they forced Overtime at Pittsburgh before losing. As always, I count every pick so that was 3x 1-unit losses on that game.

Minnesota took the 2-1 lead in the third period, but for the 2nd game in a row, New York Rangers made a comeback win, this one in Overtime.

Columbus won by 1-0 score at home vs. Ottawa, so a push there.

Nashville blew their 2 goal lead at home vs. St.Louis, before winning in Overtime. So that game netted me a 1-unit loss and a push.

........................................ ........................................ ...................
Once again an above-average number of Overtime games occurred tonight. 4 out of the 9 games on the schedule. Yet I don't seem to be able to pick that. With odds usually offered at +300 or higher for the Overtime prop bet, on a night like tonight a bettor could just play it for an equal amount on every game on the nightly card for a profit.

Let's assume 4x +300 at one-unit each: Winners for +12 units.
Also count 5x losers on the Overtime bet: Lose -5 units.
Profit +7 units on Overtime without any thought required tonight.
And it seems to happen enough that it would be profitable to bet Overtime every game, every night.

Monday Nov.25: 4 of 9 games went to OT = +7 units profit
Sunday Nov.24: 1 of 3 games went to OT = +1 unit profit
Saturday Nov.23: 5 of 14 games went to OT = +6 units profit
Friday Nov.22: 0 of 2 games went to OT = -2 units lost
Thurs. Nov.21: 3 of 13 games went to OT = -1 units lost
Wed. Nov.20: 1 of 2 games went to OT = +2 units profit
Tue. Nov.19: 1 of 13 games went to OT = -9 units lost
Mon. Nov.18: 0 of 2 games went to OT = -2 units lost
Sun. Nov.17: 0 of 2 games went to OT = -2 units lost
Sat. Nov.16: 7 of 15 games went to OT = +13 units profit
Fri. Nov.15: 1 of 5 games went to OT = -2 units lost
Thurs. Nov.14: 2 of 8 games went to OT = 0 units net
Wed. Nov.13: 1 of 5 games went to OT = -2 units lost
Tue. Nov.12: 5 of 9 games went to OT = +11 units profit
Mon. Nov.11: 1 of 2 games went to OT = +2 units profit
Sun. Nov.10: 3 of 7 games went to OT = +5 units profit
Sat. Nov.9: 4 of 11 games went to OT = +5 units profit
Fri. Nov.8: 0 of 4 games went to OT = -4 units lost
Thurs. Nov.7: 5 of 11 games went to OT = +9 units profit
Wed. Nov.6: 0 of 2 games went to OT = -2 units lost
Tue. Nov.5: 3 of 11 games went to OT = +1 unit profit
Mon. Nov.4: 1 of 4 games went to OT = 0 units net
Sun. Nov.3: 1 of 2 games went to OT = +2 units profit
Sat. Nov.2: 5 of 14 games went to OT = +6 units profit
Fri. Nov.1: 3 of 8 games went to OT = +4 units profit

If I totaled those up right, that was +48 units profit for the whole month of November by playing the Overtime prop every game.

14 nights were profitable, 9 were losing nights, and 2 went even money if you played this strategy form Nov.1 to Nov.25

If you started on Nov.17 thru Nov.25, it has resulted in 0 net gain/loss during that recent stretch.

Again that assumes +300 for each winner. The actual Overtime prop odds offered differ for each game, so I think this is a conservative multiplier to use, and in reality the profit is even higher.

Sometimes streaky, but this is where the league is at. End thread, just do this. Wish I had.

**MisterSack** · 11-26-19, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by hotcross

Results: Nov.25 = -4.60 units (1-6-2 W/L/D)
OVERALL: -36.96 units (37-60-6 W/L/D = .381 pct)

Apparently the entire card was confusing to me on Monday, as shown by the results.

Calgary was a speculative pick, so that one doesn't bother me too much, they forced Overtime at Pittsburgh before losing. As always, I count every pick so that was 3x 1-unit losses on that game.

Minnesota took the 2-1 lead in the third period, but for the 2nd game in a row, New York Rangers made a comeback win, this one in Overtime.

Columbus won by 1-0 score at home vs. Ottawa, so a push there.

Nashville blew their 2 goal lead at home vs. St.Louis, before winning in Overtime. So that game netted me a 1-unit loss and a push.

........................................ ........................................ ...................
Once again an above-average number of Overtime games occurred tonight. 4 out of the 9 games on the schedule. Yet I don't seem to be able to pick that. With odds usually offered at +300 or higher for the Overtime prop bet, on a night like tonight a bettor could just play it for an equal amount on every game on the nightly card for a profit.

Let's assume 4x +300 at one-unit each: Winners for +12 units.
Also count 5x losers on the Overtime bet: Lose -5 units.
Profit +7 units on Overtime without any thought required tonight.
And it seems to happen enough that it would be profitable to bet Overtime every game, every night.

Monday Nov.25: 4 of 9 games went to OT = +7 units profit
Sunday Nov.24: 1 of 3 games went to OT = +1 unit profit
Saturday Nov.23: 5 of 14 games went to OT = +6 units profit
Friday Nov.22: 0 of 2 games went to OT = -2 units lost
Thurs. Nov.21: 3 of 13 games went to OT = -1 units lost
Wed. Nov.20: 1 of 2 games went to OT = +2 units profit
Tue. Nov.19: 1 of 13 games went to OT = -9 units lost
Mon. Nov.18: 0 of 2 games went to OT = -2 units lost
Sun. Nov.17: 0 of 2 games went to OT = -2 units lost
Sat. Nov.16: 7 of 15 games went to OT = +13 units profit
Fri. Nov.15: 1 of 5 games went to OT = -2 units lost
Thurs. Nov.14: 2 of 8 games went to OT = 0 units net
Wed. Nov.13: 1 of 5 games went to OT = -2 units lost
Tue. Nov.12: 5 of 9 games went to OT = +11 units profit
Mon. Nov.11: 1 of 2 games went to OT = +2 units profit
Sun. Nov.10: 3 of 7 games went to OT = +5 units profit
Sat. Nov.9: 4 of 11 games went to OT = +5 units profit
Fri. Nov.8: 0 of 4 games went to OT = -4 units lost
Thurs. Nov.7: 5 of 11 games went to OT = +9 units profit
Wed. Nov.6: 0 of 2 games went to OT = -2 units lost
Tue. Nov.5: 3 of 11 games went to OT = +1 unit profit
Mon. Nov.4: 1 of 4 games went to OT = 0 units net
Sun. Nov.3: 1 of 2 games went to OT = +2 units profit
Sat. Nov.2: 5 of 14 games went to OT = +6 units profit
Fri. Nov.1: 3 of 8 games went to OT = +4 units profit

If I totaled those up right, that was +48 units profit for the whole month of November by playing the Overtime prop every game.

14 nights were profitable, 9 were losing nights, and 2 went even money if you played this strategy form Nov.1 to Nov.25

If you started on Nov.17 thru Nov.25, it has resulted in 0 net gain/loss during that recent stretch.

Again that assumes +300 for each winner. The actual Overtime prop odds offered differ for each game, so I think this is a conservative multiplier to use, and in reality the profit is even higher.

Sometimes streaky, but this is where the league is at. End thread, just do this. Wish I had.

Usually use a local guy, but dumping $1,000 into Bovada to solely do this. Will update throughout season

**hotcross** · 11-26-19, 06:18 PM

Tuesday Nov.26

MONTREAL -101 ML // 5.05 units to win 5.00

CHICAGO -106 ML // 5.30 units to win 5.00

CHICAGO -0.5 +165 regulation win // 3.00 units to win 4.95

**hotcross** · 11-26-19, 08:05 PM

so Carey Price has allowed 4 goals on 9 shots, including the 4th one just 8 seconds into the 2nd period

and Montreal was outplaying them by a ton in the beginning of the game, until a couple bad penalties

edit: another one, make that 5 goals allowed on 11 shots

my bad for betting on a dumb team, keep blowing games the way they have

**Philmill** · 11-26-19, 08:45 PM

You will bounce back hotcross.... pre-holidays are road teams if your on the fence...
you got Hawks working for ya...!! cash that one hotcross...!

**hotcross** · 11-26-19, 09:15 PM

I got some wins earlier in the season with Montreal, but lost on them big in their past 3 games. They lost those games every way possible, meaning found a new variety for each way of giving it up.