Hotcross NHL 2019-20 thread

[hotcross]

My previous 2 years NHL record documented on SBR:

2017: +68.96 units (163-176-9 W/L/D = .480 pct)
2018: + 2.22 units (136-192-10 W/L/D = .414 pct)



I do in fact play all of my posted wagers for real money.
I do not "flat bet" in any sports.

There will not be picks every day.
These are my real wagers, typically risking 1 to 5 units per play....

My reasoning for posting in terms of Units is anybody can fade or follow (or simply read for entertainment) based on the dollar amount they wish to assign to a unit. That is personal. I will say each unit for me is no less than $100, and I am playing for real. Sometimes I go on a good run, but the overall results speak for itself.

So I will attempt to improve this season, and endeavor to minimize the downswings.

I will probably not be posting many write-ups this year, but maybe some along the way.

[hotcross]

Wed. Oct.2 - Opening Night


ST.LOUIS -0.5 +110 regulation win // 1 unit to win 1.10




I will try to do a better job of posting picks earlier before gametime, but not promising anything.


Also,

PRODUCTIVE questions and/or discussions are welcome.

[hotcross]

Thurs. Oct.4

NY RANGERS -116 ML // 2.90 units to win 2.50


grabbing this overnight line early for Thursday

[veriableodds]

gl man nice 2 year record, keep it going

[hotcross]

Results: Oct.2+3 = +1.50 units (1-1 W/L = .500 pct)


I'm doing simplified record-keeping this year. Not gonna be listing the final scores.


Typo on today's date when I originally posted the NY Rangers play overnight,
but today was obviously Thursday, Oct.3

[hotcross]

Friday Oct.4

NY ISLANDERS -0.5 +135 regulation win // 1 unit to win 1.35



for anyone new here / new to hockey wagering:

Most books offer the -0.5 spread for regulation time in the game. Separate from the moneyline wager.
This means the team must win the game by the end of the 3rd period.
You get a better price betting this way, because if the game goes to Overtime, the bet loses, no matter the final outcome.
Games that do go to Overtime become more of a 50-50% situation.

NHL has a new rules change for this year which applies to the end of season standings = if teams are tied for point in the standings, the number of regulation wins will be the tiebreaker. So this gives some incentive now for teams to get the win in regulation time.

[hotcross]

Results: Oct.4 = -1.00 units (0-1 W/L)
OVERALL: +0.50 units (1-2 W/L = .333 pct)

Saturday Oct.5

ST.LOUIS -140 ML // 7.00 units to win 5.00

ARIZONA +124 ML // 2.50 units to win 3.10

LA KINGS +130 ML // 3.00 units to win 3.90

[hotcross]

adding ::

MONTREAL +129 ML // 1.55 units to win 2.00

FLORIDA +104 ML // 2.25 units to win 2.34


that's all for today

[hotcross]

Wed. Oct.2 - Opening Night

-1.00 Loss >> ST.LOUIS -0.5 +110 regulation win // 1 unit to win 1.10


Thurs. Oct.3

+2.50 Win >> NY RANGERS -116 ML // 2.90 units to win 2.50


Fri. Oct.4

-1.00 Loss >> NY ISLANDERS -0.5 +135 regulation win // 1 unit to win 1.35


Saturday Oct.5

+5.00 Win >> ST.LOUIS -140 ML // 7.00 units to win 5.00

-2.50 Loss >> ARIZONA +124 ML // 2.50 units to win 3.10

-3.00 Loss >> LA KINGS +130 ML // 3.00 units to win 3.90

+2.00 Win >> MONTREAL +129 ML // 1.55 units to win 2.00

+2.34 Win >> FLORIDA +104 ML // 2.25 units to win 2.34

Results: Oct.5 = +3.84 units (3-2 W/L)
OVERALL: +4.34 units (4-4 W/L = .500 pct)


Profitable opening week, but my radar is a little off with W/L

Gonna do more homework

[hotcross]

Thursday Oct.10

MONTREAL -0.5 -115 regulation win // 2.00 units to win 1.74

MINNESOTA +104 ML // 1.25 units to win 1.30

ARIZONA +102 ML // 1.00 units to win 1.02

[hotcross]

adding ::

SAN JOSE -105 first period moneyline // 1.05 units to win 1.00
*push if tied end 1p


that's all for tonight

[hotcross]

Results: Oct.10 = -2.23 units (1-2-1 W/L/D)
OVERALL: +2.11 units (5-6-1 W/L/D = .454 pct)


Arizona was the only winner. San Jose pushed the first period 2-2 score, but won the full game 5-4.

Both those teams got their first win of the season tonight.

[hotcross]

Saturday Oct.12

DALLAS -0.5 +140 regulation win // 1.00 unit to win 1.40

ARIZONA +133 ML // 1.00 units to win 1.33

[hotcross]

Results: Oct.12 = -2.00 units (0-2 W/L)
OVERALL: +0.11 units (5-8-1 W/L/D = .384 pct)


Monday Oct.14

MINNESOTA -0.5 +122 regulation win // 1.00 unit to win 1.22


Going with Minnesota for the early games

They have good history of beating the crummy Ottawa Senators

Also Ottawa is thin at the center position with Anisimov out of the lineup

[hotcross]

Locked in one of the early lines for Tuesday....

Tuesday Oct.15

PHILADELPHIA +150 ML // 2.00 units to win 3.00

[hotcross]

back to today (Monday) this game starts in about 40 minutes:

Monday Oct.14 - adding ::

COLORADO +120 ML // 2.50 units to win 3.00

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Results: Oct.14 = +4.22 units (2-0 W/L)
OVERALL: +4.33 units (7-8-1 W/L/D = .467 pct)

2-0 with Monday's picks

got the one early line pick for Tuesday....


PENDING early line Tuesday Oct.15

PHILADELPHIA +150 ML // 2.00 units to win 3.00

[hotcross]

Tuesday Oct.15 - adding ::

MINNESOTA +1.5 -120 puckline // 1.20 units to win 1

OVERTIME +395 MINN@TOR // 1 unit to win 3.95


any other picks for tonight I'll have to think about a bit more....

[hotcross]

Results: Oct.15 = -4.20 units (0-3 W/L)
OVERALL: +0.13 units (7-11-1 W/L/D = .388 pct)

0-3 yesterday, following the 2-0 previous day. Not finding my stride.


Wed. Oct.16

OVERTIME +300 DAL@CBJ // 1 unit to win 3.00


I'm really torn on this game. At first glance, you see a struggling Dallas team with 5 injured players who Columbus has beaten 8 of the previous 10 matchups Head-to-Head. But looking at the schedule, Dallas has two more road games coming up, first Pittsbugh then Philadelphia and I think tonight's game is their best chance to win one of those. So, I'll try the Overtime prop again in this game of West vs East conference opponents.


For later, I'm still doing a bit more research on the games in Edmonton and Anaheim.

[hotcross]

adding ::

ANAHEIM -127 ML // 2.54 units to win 2.00

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Results: Oct.16 = +1.00 units (1-1 W/L)
OVERALL: +1.13 units (8-12-1 W/L/D = .400 pct)


Thurs. Oct.17

NEW JERSEY -120 ML // 1.80 units to win 1.50

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Results: Oct.17 = +1.50 units (1-0 W/L)

OVERALL: +2.63 units (9-12-1 W/L/D = .428 pct)

Fri. Oct.18

FLORIDA -134 ML // 4.02 units to win 3.00

[hotcross]

Results: Oct.18 = -4.02 units (0-1 W/L)
OVERALL: -1.39 units (9-13-1 W/L/D = .409 pct)


That was an azz puckering loss by Florida yesterday. Go up 3-1 by the end of 1p, then allow Colorado to tie it 4-4 by end of 2p, then lose in OT. They were the rested team at home! Bobrovsky apparently sucks just as much as their defense. Quenneville who?


Sat. Oct.19

TAMPA BAY -0.5 -130 regulation win -134 // 6.50 units to win 5.00

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Results: Oct.19 = -6.50 units (0-1 W/L)
OVERALL: -7.89 units (9-14-1 W/L/D = .391 pct)


Florida won in Nashville by result of the Shootout after Overtime (didn't bet). While Tampa Bay got throttled by Colorado, they're running hot.

Sun. Oct.20

OVERTIME +315 MTL@MINN // 1.00 units to win 3.15

MINNESOTA -125 ML // 5.25 units to win 4.20

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adding ::

CALGARY +125 ML // 2.40 units to win 3.00

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Results: Oct.20 = +6.20 units (2-1 W/L)
OVERALL: -1.69 units (11-15-1 W/L/D = .423 pct)


Both moneyline picks won Sunday, but Minnesota did it in regulation, not overtime.

[hotcross]

Monday Oct.21

COLUMBUS -0.5 +290 regulation win // 1.00 unit to win 2.90

COLUMBUS -1.5 +370 reverse puckline // 1.00 unit to win 3.70

COLUMBUS -1 +280 alternative puckline *buy 0.5 goal // 1.00 unit to win 2.80


going against the obvious pick by taking Columbus in regulation. Also just to clarify, I'm also playing a reverse puckline play on Columbus at both -1 goals AND -1.5 goals. The -1 will push if Columbus wins by exactly 1 (even if Overtime), while the -1.5 line would lose by a one-goal win.

Josh Anderson, their big Right Winger has been activated from the injured list for tonight's game.

Goalie Joonas Korpisalo has been good and actually has better stats to this point in the season than Toronto's goalie Frederik Andersen. Columbus problem has been scoring goals so far. But they might have the opportunity to do so tonight, as Toronto has 6 injured players. Furthermore, in prior Head-to-Head matchups, these teams have split 5-5 out of the past 10 meetings.

Toronto is the overall better team, but I like the potential payout odds on Columbus to get the surprise win, possibly by multiple goals in regulation time. Part of my thinking also is Toronto played Overtime in their last game which was a 4-3 overtime win vs Boston, while Columbus lost their past 2 games in Overtime, both by the score of 3-2 against the Blackhawks and the Islanders. So effectively, these bets assume these teams will not play Overtime again tonight.

[hotcross]

adding ::

ST.LOUIS -0.5 +115 regulation win // 2.00 units to win 2.30

[hotcross]

Monday Oct.21
-1.00 Loss >> COLUMBUS -0.5 +290 regulation win // 1.00 unit to win 2.90

-1.00 Loss >> COLUMBUS -1.5 +370 reverse puckline // 1.00 unit to win 3.70

+0 PUSH >> COLUMBUS -1 +280 alternative puckline *buy 0.5 goal // 1.00 unit to win 2.80

+2.30 Win >> ST.LOUIS -0.5 +115 regulation win // 2.00 units to win 2.30

Results: Oct.21 = +0.30 units (1-2-1 W/L)
OVERALL: -1.39 units (12-17-2 W/L/D = .414 pct)


Columbus won in overtime 4-3 score, so I get caught being greedy for the alternative pucklines, but more risky pick, that's why just 1 unit risked each on those.

Actually got a micro profit on the day with St.Louis winning 3-1 score for the 2 unit pick.

[hotcross]

Tuesday Oct.22

BOSTON -0.5 -115 regulation win // 3.45 units to win 3.00

FLORIDA -0.5 +110 regulation win // 3.00 units to win 3.30





still looking at later games.....

[hotcross]

tonight's remaining games are too close too call for me

I want to play Calgary -120 ML but it could be tight and therefore I'm passing

[hotcross]

Results: Oct.22 = +6.30 units (2-0 W/L)
OVERALL: +4.91 units (14-17-2 W/L/D = .452 pct)

Both picks won by 4-2 final scores

[MecStar]

Great job !!!!

[hotcross]

^^ thanks for the praise

General info for anyone not familiar with my tracking threads.... high volatility due to the varied units risked per pick.

Also, my Win / Loss record can be a deceiving indicator because I do track everything whether it be Overtime prop bets, or multiple bets on a single team using alternative lines (such as Columbus a couple nights ago).

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Only 2 games on the Oct.23 schedule tonight, no plays for me. Tampa Bay is a large home favorite tonight vs. Pittsburgh who played last night, just keep in mind these teams have played games decided by 1-goal in 5 of the last 10 head-to-head matchups.

[hotcross]

Friday Oct.25

TORONTO -0.5 -120 regulation win // 1.80 units to win 1.50