Hotcross NHL 2017-18 Thread

[hotcross]

Saturday Feb.17

let's take these one at a time today

ANAHEIM -0.5 win in regulation only +187 // 1 unit to win 1.87
*does not push if game goes to OT

[hotcross]

Saturday Feb.17 - adding ::

DETROIT +185 // 1 unit to win 1.85

CHICAGO first period only moneyline +100 // 3 units to win 3

[hotcross]

Feb.17 results:

-1.00 ANAHEIM -0.5 regulation only ----> score 3-2 road win in 11-round shootout at MINN
+1.85 DETROIT ----> 3-1 road win at NSH
+3.00 CHICAGO first period ML ----> score 3-1 end first period home vs WSH
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Feb.17 = +3.85 units (W/L = 2-1)

OVERALL THREAD: +3.97 units (W/L = 81-85-5 overall = .487 pct)

LAST 10 PICKS: -1.17 units (W/L = 4-5-1 Last ten = .444 pct)
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Anaheim game - thought the extra +plus money for the regulation odds was a better choice than +115 including OT because they are so inept in Overtime and Shootout games this year my logic was they probably wouldn't win if game went beyond regulation. Ducks were able to win after 11 rounds of shootout after overtime, mainly due to good goaltending by John Gibson, but also bad shooting by both teams in this one. Instead of +1.15 winner, turned it in to a -1 unit loss. Think it was a case of correct decision, so don't worry about the result. But I like to win! I think the lesson learned is difference between the +1.87 regulation and +1.15 might not be enough, especially considering I did figure-in Gibson as a better goalie than Dubnyk.

[hotcross]

Sunday Feb.18

TEAM TOTAL OVER 2.5 COLORADO -162 // 1 unit to win 0.61

COLUMBUS -140 // 1.40 units to win 1

[hotcross]

lost both picks Sunday - will tally up after today. Might have realized making a mistake, for instance the pick with Columbus at home vs. Pittsburgh was mainly capping goalies - Bobrovsky vs. Tristian Jarry....Jarry hadn't played an NHL game for several weeks and just saw this as a huge mismatch when Bobrovsky is "on his game" he might be the best in the league. Also considered how bad Columbus needed the win....but really as a team they haven't been playing that well...other than getting many shots in 2 of the past 3 games. So what happens? Bobrovsky looked like a rookie amateur right from the start of the game and Columbus had no chance of fighting back for that many goals.

So I will need to cap more factors, not just thinking one team has an easy win coming with a goalie mismatch. I need to go back looking at my records this year, but I sense this has cost me several losses. This also feels like it has changed from previous years....meaning if there we games the backup goalie was starting, it used to be that you better not pick that team very often.....but this year I think those results have changed a bit. I want to go back and look at data but haven't yet.

[hotcross]

Monday Feb.19

keeping things simple and will try to give at least a quick reason or two for the picks from now on.....

WASHINGTON -140 includes OT // 1 unit to win 0.71

WASHINGTON -0.5 regulation only +113 // 1 unit to win 1.13

Splitting up 2 units risk on Washington at Buffalo with this pick. Game starts in about 20 minutes.

Obviously the better team is Washington. This game is set for both backup goalies to start, Grubauer at Johnson. Both have played decent, although on the season Chad Johnson is less impressive with 3.48 GAA and .888 save percentage....he's played better in recent starts.

Buffalo won the first meeting on Nov.7 in their home building, 3-1, and will be hosting today as well. One big thing I noticed about that game, it was the sixth game for Washington in a stretch of games vs. only the fourth game for Buffalo in the same number of days, so I believe Buffalo was more rested and at home for that game.

One more reason here, as the season is winding down with 20-25 games left, Washington has to play Tampa Bay tomorrow. So I think the Capitals will be motivated to get themselves a win today against an interior Buffalo team, get out of there without Overtime and secure the 2 points in the standings, before having to deal with Tampa on Tuesday.

[hotcross]

wow I got good prices on Washington for a change. A lot of times I'm too busy to try to get the best price, and I have to take whatever is being offered at the time I'm ready to finalize the pick.....I know this has cost me also and should change my behavior so that I can get the best price when possible.

[hotcross]

Monday Feb.19 - adding::

game starts in about 15 minutes

BOSTON -130 regulation only moneyline // 1.30 units to win 1

OVERTIME +295 BOS@CGY // 1 units to win 2.95

Taking a shot on this game going to Overtime....both teams are due for an Overtime game meaning haven't played one in awhile. Calgary really needs points in the standings.

I'm also risking the Regulation Only ML on Boston. This will push if game goes to OT. So the only way I lose both units is if Calgary wins in Regulation.

Goalie mismatch here Rask vs. Rittich.

Both teams were outplayed in their previous games. Boston lost 6-1 at Vancouver on the first game of their roadtrip, then after today they have to play in Edmonton tomorrow. Another angle here is I think the early start time benefits Boston more than it does Calgary because Boston is an East team.

[hotcross]

Feb.18&19 results:

-1.00 TEAM TOTAL COLORADO OVER 2.5 ----> score 4-2 home loss vs EDM
-1.40 COLUMBUS ML ----> score 5-2 home loss vs PITT
+0.71 WASHINGTON ML ----> 3-2 road win at BUF
+1.13 WASHINGTON -0.5 regulation ----> 3-2 win regulation time
+0 push BOSTON regulation only ML ----> score 1-1 end of regulation at CGY
+2.95 OVERTIME BOS@CGY ----> score 1-1 end of regulation (BOS win 2-1 final)
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Feb.18&19 = +2.39 units (W/L = 3-2-1)

OVERALL THREAD: +6.36 units (W/L = 84-87-6 overall = .491 pct)

LAST 10 PICKS: +6.24 units (W/L = 5-3-2 Last ten = .625 pct)
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no more picks for today

[hotcross]

Tuesday Feb.20

MONTREAL +130 // 1 units to win 1.30

Cary Price had enough last game and he is gonna teach this Flyers team a lesson tonight. Flyers could be a bit out of sync as a team, after trading for goalie Mrazek from Detroit, but he will not be starting tonight it will be Lyons in net.

[hotcross]

Montreal scored first last night, but lost late when Jakub Voracek scored the tying goal with 1:25 left in regulation and then got the game-winner 1:26 into overtime to lift the Flyers to a 3-2 victory over the Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday night.

Price took a hard shot in the mask at one point which might have threw him off. Neither team played particularly well in my opinion, and think I was on the right side.

[hotcross]

Wednesday Feb.21

OTTAWA +155 regulation only moneyline // 1 unit to win 1.55

take the visitors in this "neither team cares match of the night"

Ottawa actually beat ANA, PHI, NJ, NSH this month. They play Tampa tomorrow so probably already counting that as a loss.

The regulation only ML pays higher if you can get it, and takes Overtime out of the equation. Pushes if OT

[hotcross]

Feb.20&21 results:

-1.00 MONTREAL ML ----> 3-2 road overtime loss at PHI
+0 push OTTAWA regulation only ML ----> score 2-2 end of regulation at CHI (CHI win 3-2 final 7-round shootout)
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Feb.20&21 = -1.00 units (W/L = 0-1-1)

OVERALL THREAD: +5.36 units (W/L = 84-88-7 overall = .488 pct)

LAST 10 PICKS: +6.24 units (W/L = 5-3-2 Last ten = .625 pct)
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[hotcross]

Thursday Feb.22

MINNESOTA -112 regulation only moneyline // 1.12 units to win 1
*push if game goes to Overtime

this is only the tenth game for Minnesota in a stretch including Feb.2, during which time they have 5-2-2 record. MINN has 71 points total in the standings.

however it is game 12 for the home team New Jersey since/including Feb.1, their record only 6-5-0 during the stretch. NJ has 70 points total in the standings.

Both teams striving to make the playoffs and need the win. Again using the Regulation only ML takes overtime results out of the equation.

Both are starting backup goalies tonight. Alex Stalock at Eddie Lack. Stalock has by far the better overall goalkeeper stats, but was shelled in a 6-1 loss his last appearance vs. Dallas (Stalock let in 4 goals before being pulled).

[hotcross]

Thursday Feb.22 - adding ::

FLORIDA -117 regulation only moneyline // 5.85 units to win 5
*push if games goes to Overtime

Not only had Florida been playing better hockey than the Washington Capitals in February, the Capitals have played one more game over the course of he month.

Add the shooting tragedy in Florida, the home team's first game back from a road trip where they dropped the last two, will have the extra spark of motivation.

[hotcross]

Thursday Feb.22 - adding ::

MONTREAL -0.5 regulation win +100 // 5 units to win 5

Take the home team. Odds are high on Montreal as the favorite here because NY Rangers are sitting several players. You can lessen the odds with this -0.5 regulation line.

[hotcross]

Feb.22 results:

+1.00 MINNESOTA -112 regulation only ML ----> 4-2 road win at NJ
+5.00 FLORIDA -117 regulation only ML ----> score 3-2 home win in regulation vs WSH
+5.00 MONTREAL -0.5 regulation win ----> score 3-1 home win vs NYR
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Feb.22 = +11.00 units (W/L = 3-0)

OVERALL THREAD: +16.36 units (W/L = 87-88-7 overall = .497 pct)

LAST 10 PICKS: +13.39 units (W/L = 6-2-2 Last ten = .750 pct)
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3-0 night, plus nailed the 100 betpoint giveaway with 59 total goals scored in all games Thursday night!

what a country!

[hotcross]

Friday Feb.23

CAROLINA first period only moneyline -101 // 1.01 units to win 1
*push if tie score end first period

I'm suspicious of tonight's card.

This game both teams have not played since Sunday. Carolina is the younger team in general, on home ice, and desperately needs the win after dropping the previous 3 games. Pitt has been playing great, so Carolina needs to open the game with a big effort. Typically, after a few days off the ice, teams take a little while to get going in the game, so again I think Carolina has an advantage in the first period.

[GzaTheGenius]

Carolina is great at home

Wanted to take Pitt myself they have been unstoppable lately
10-1-1

And Hornqvist should be back tonight to make them even better??

Idk some reason I can't bring myself to bet it, maybe if they're down by 1 after the 1st I'll take the at +money

GL

[hotcross]

Friday Feb.23 - adding ::

starts in 20 minutes

CHICAGO -127 // 2.54 units to win 2
*includes overtime

Sharks playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights. Just got hammered 7-1 loss in Nashville last night, then had to fly up to Chicago for this game.

Blackhawks only had to play 1 game in the same time-frame, a 3-2 shootout win vs Ottawa on Wednesday.

Just think its a bad spot for the Sharks, plus the fact this line favoring Chicago is peculiar.

[hotcross]

Feb.23 results:

-1.01 CAROLINA first period ML ----> 1-0 PITT lead end 1P at CAR (final 6-1 PITT)
+2.00 CHICAGO -127 ----> score 3-1 home win vs SJ
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Feb.23 = +0.99 units (W/L = 1-1)

OVERALL THREAD: +17.35 units (W/L = 88-89-7 overall = .497 pct)

LAST 10 PICKS: +15.07 units (W/L = 6-2-2 Last ten = .750 pct)
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Feels like I should be winning more over the past few nights. Talked myself out of some additional picks, but I'm trying to avoid getting overly confident/complacent, then playing too much volume and having a big down night. Doing good recently anyway.

[hotcross]

Saturday Feb.24

sorry no time for explaining. These are my plays, might add a late game.

BOSTON -125:regulation only moneyline // 1.25 units to win 1

FLORIDA +102 first period only moneyline // 1 unit to win 1.02

OVERTIME +300 PITT@FLA // 1 unit to win 3

[hotcross]

Feb.24 results:

-1.25 BOSTON regulation ML ----> 4-3 road loss at TOR
+1.02 FLORIDA first period ML ----> score 2-1 home end 1P vs PITT
-1.00 OVERTIME PITT@FLA ----> 6-5 FLA home win in regulation
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Feb.24 = -1.23 units (W/L = 1-2)

OVERALL THREAD: +16.12 units (W/L = 89-91-7 overall = .494 pct)

LAST 10 PICKS: +9.76 units (W/L = 5-4-1 Last ten = .555 pct)
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[hotcross]

Monday Feb.26

LOS ANGELES -110 // 5.50 units to win 5

OVERTIME +295 VGS@LAK // 1 unit to win 2.95

Taking a shot on this game going to Overtime....both teams are due for an Overtime game meaning haven't played one in awhile. Los Angeles really needs points in the standings after losing Thursday and Saturday night at home.

LA Kings narrowly missed a comeback for the ages Saturday night at home vs. the Edmonton Oilers. The Kings trailed 4-2 and scored with 18-seconds left on the clock to make the score 4-3. Then as time ticked off with about 4-seconds left, they appeared to score again! The play was reviewed twice, the first review granted the Kings the goal, but after a coach's challenge by Edmonton, the situation room in Toronto determined the play was goalie interference, the goal was wiped off the scoreboard, and Oilers won 4-3. Both sides of the argument could be made about this call.

Expect the Kings t be highly motivated in this first game of a home-and-home vs. the Vegas Golden Knights. The visitors are fresh off blowing out the competition in their past two home games, however that was against Calgary (7-3 score) and Vancouver (6-3 score). They will be in for a m___ f___'n surprise tonight vs. the angry Kings in what is sure to be an instant classic of the Medieval Times teams!

[hotcross]

Feb.26 results:

+5.00 LOS ANGELES ML ----> score 3-2 home Overtime win vs VGS
+2.95 OVERTIME VGS@LAK ----> score 2-2 end regulation
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Feb.26 = +7.95 units (W/L = 2-0)

OVERALL THREAD: +24.07 units(W/L = 91-91-7 overall = .500 pct)

LAST 10 PICKS: +18.71 units (W/L = 7-3 Last ten = .700 pct)
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comeback late from 2-0 deficit, tie it with extra attacker, Overtime power-play win, Love it !!

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Nice win, hot cross!

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Nice job on the season.

[hotcross]

Tuesday Feb.27

game starts in 20-minutes. Will have at least one more pick for the later games....

DALLAS -155 regulation only moneyline // 1.55 units to win 1
*push if game goes to Overtime

Dallas beat Calgary in two previous meetings this year, 2-1 score and 6-4 score. This is the third and final meeting this year between the teams. Dallas is just 2-4 W/L in their 6 most recent games. But don't be fooled, the Stars are a serious contender in the league. They have only played 11-games in the month of Feb, tonight will be game 12 for them. Their previous game was at home, albeit a 5-3 loss vs. Winnipeg.

Calgary meantime has played 13-games in the month of Feb. They have been traveling recently between home and away games, a bit of a brutal schedule. We know they are a good road team, but Dallas is the better overall team and more physical. I don't know for sure but I suspect this game could be high-scoring, but Dallas should dominate the 5-on-5 play. If the game goes to overtime, I'd rather not risk the 50-50 proposition, so take the regulation only moneyline here.

[hotcross]

Tuesday Feb.27 - adding ::

LOS ANGELES +134 first period only moneyline // 1.50 units to win 2
*push if tie score end first period

Might still add more plays for the two late games.....Kings at Knights have not yet released starting goalies and line combos.....


LA Kings are due to take an early lead. This pick is basically made on "being due" theory, so if that's not something you like, pass on this play. Also, with this back-to-back of the home-and-home divisional matchup, I think the Kings will realize if they get behind in Vegas' home building, they will have a very a tough time trying to comeback for the win as they were forced to do last night.

You have to go back five games to find the last time the Kings led after the first period, Feb.19 at Chicago. Meantime looking at the first period results for Vegas the past 8 games, whether home or away, their record 4-1-3 at the end of the first period. It is because of the magnitude of the importance of this game for the Kings that I'm picking against this trend tonight

[hotcross]

well, not sure what to make of this game with the goalies starting Jack Campbell, called-up from Ontario of the AHL team.

for Vegas it will be Maxime Legace

[hotcross]

Feb.27 results:

+1.00 DALLAS regulation ML ----> score 2-0 home win vs CGY
+0 push LOS ANGELES first period only ----> score 1-1 end first period at VGS
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Feb.27 = +1.00 units (W/L = 1-0-1)

OVERALL THREAD: +25.07 units (W/L = 92-91-8 overall = .502 pct)

LAST 10 PICKS: +13.71 units (W/L = 6-3-1 Last ten = .667 pct)
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[hotcross]

Wednesday Feb.28

only 5 games on tonight's schedule....might have more picks for the other games, but this one stands out.....


ST. LOUIS -153 regulation only moneyline // 5 units to win 3.26
*push if game goes to Overtime

St. Louis (34-26-4 overall) is the home team tonight and lost 7 in a row, looking absolutely terrible in doing so. Coach Mike Yeo called out some players after last night's 8-3 azz whoopin' at Minnesota, and he has already declared at least one notable player, 9-year Center Patrik Berglund, as a healthy scratch for tonight's game, meaning benched for poor performance as a wake-up call to the player.

Tonight the Blues face a Detroit Red Wings team which has played better lately, but come into tonight's game with an overall 26-26-10 record. Detroit played 13-games already in Feb, compared to 12 for St. Louis. Also the Red Wings have faced much easier opponents in recent games - Buffalo, Carolina, and NY Rangers, going 2 wins - 1 loss with the loss coming against Buffalo on Detroit home ice!

Blues have hardly looked like they have any pulse it all lately, but have faced much stiffer competition when the 7-game losing streak started on Feb.11 - vs Pittsburgh (4-1 score), at Nashville (4-3 loss OT), at Dallas (2-1), vs San Jose (3-2), vs Winnipeg (4-0), at Nashville (4-0), at Minnesota (8-3 score).

The Blues have 72 points in the standings and still have a possibility of making the playoffs, probably as a wild card, but only if they get back on track. I don't necessarily think they will, but tonight is a must-win game where they answer the call against an inferior Detroit team. Looking ahead, the Blues have a 4-game road trip after this game against tough teams - at Dallas, San Jose, Los Angeles, and Anaheim. Tonight is the game St. Louis must win!

With heavy favorites, I like taking this regulation only moneyline which pushes if the game goes to Overtime.

[hotcross]

Wednesday Feb.28 - adding ::

UNDER 5.5 +100 BUF@TB // 1 unit to win 1

Chad Johnson has played good in recent games for Buffalo. Sabres have also been playing better hockey, and doing so without their young star player Jack Eichel. 6-4 O/U in their last 10-games.

Andrei Vasilevskiy is a Vezina trophy candidate this year. Some say he already has won the best goalie in the league award with his play. Tampa's last 10-games have gone Over at the rate of 8-1-1. So tonight we buck the trend and go under.

[hotcross]

Feb.28 results:

+3.26 ST. LOUIS regulation ML ----> score 2-1 home regulation win vs DET
+1.00 UNDER 5.5 +100 BUF@TB ----> score 2-1 Buffalo road Overtime win at TB
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Feb.28 = +4.26 units (W/L = 2-0)

OVERALL THREAD: +29.33 units (W/L = 94-91-8 overall = .508 pct)

LAST 10 PICKS: +13.98 units (W/L = 7-2-1 Last ten = .777 pct)
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[wkupike2000]

Started following this morning. No picks today? Great work so far.