Hotcross NHL 2017-18 Thread

[hotcross]

11/9, 11/10, 11/11 results:

-1.00 NEW JERSEY (Thurs. Nov.9) ------> score 3-2 EDM win in OT at NJ
-1.00 NY ISLANDERS (Fri. Nov.10) ------> score 5-0 DAL win at home
-1.00 PARLAY 2-teams CAR & STL (Sat. Nov.11) -------> score 4-3 CHI win in OT at CAR;; score 5-2 NYI win at STL
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11/9, 11/10, 11/11 = -3.00 units (W/L = 0-3)


Thread: +1.17 units (W/L = 29-35-1 overall = .453 pct)
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up to date now

[PeterJohnson]

GL Sir you'll turn it around

[hotcross]

Petey you been doing great

I've been one day off on every team winning.

[hotcross]

Tuesday Nov.14

OVER 6 +100 DAL@FLA // 1 unit to win 1
UNDER 6 -125 VGS@EDM // 1.25 units to win 1

[hotcross]

11/14 results:

+1.00 OVER 6 +100 DAL@FLA ------> score 4-3 FLA win in OT at home
-1.25 UNDER 6 -125 VGS@EDM ------> score 8-2 EDM win at home
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11/14 = -0.25 units (W/L = 1-1)


Thread: +0.92 units (W/L = 30-36-1 overall = .454 pct)
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[hotcross]

Wed. Nov.15

NY RANGERS +115 // 1 unit to win 1.15

[PeterJohnson]

GL Tonight Hot

Wed. Nov.15

NY RANGERS +115 // 1 unit to win 1.15

[hotcross]

Rangers lost on Wed.

Saturday Nov.18

CALGARY +118 // 5 units to win 5.90

[hotcross]

Calgary won Saturday
will total up my record after tonight's game

Monday Nov.20
OVER 5.5 +115 ANA@SJ // 1 unit to win 1.15

[hotcross]

11/15, 11/18, 11/20 results:

-1.00 NY RANGERS (Wed.Nov.15) ------> score 6-3 CHI win at home
+5.90 CALGARY (Saturday Nov.18) ------> score 5-4 CGY win in OT at PHI
-1.00 OVER 5.5 +115 ANA@SJ (Mon.Nov.20) ------> score 3-2 ANA win at SJ in a nine-round shootout after overtime
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11/15, 11/18, 11/20 = +3.90 units (W/L = 1-2)


Thread: +4.82 units (W/L = 31-38-1 overall = .449 pct)
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One comment about Monday Nov.20 game Anaheim at San Jose.
Anaheim was on back-to-back after winning a hard-fought 3-2 home game vs. Florida on Sunday night, in which their goalie John Gibson made 50 saves.

They started backup Reto Berra on Monday in San Jose, who proceeded to make 40 saves earning the win (been about 2-years since the last won a game in NHL). So I really didn't see that coming. It underscores San Jose's scoring drought. Bad pick I guess, but knew Anaheim was starting Berra and figured would play them tough and get over the total.

[hotcross]

Wed. Nov.22

PARLAY 2-teams: NY ISLANDERS -155 & NASHVILLE -205
risk 1 unit to win 1.47

UNDER 5.5 -105 VANC@PITT // 1.05 units to win 1

[hotcross]

11/22 results:

+1.47 PARLAY 2-teams NYI -155 & NSH -205 --> score 4-3 NYI win vs PHI in OT at home;; score 3-2 NSH win vs MTL in shootout at home
-1.05 UNDER 5.5 -105 VANC@PITT ------> score 5-2 VANC win at PITT
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11/22 = +0.42 units (W/L = 1-1)


Thread: +5.24 units (W/L = 32-39-1 overall = .450 pct)
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Season summary to come shortly....

[hotcross]

SUMMARY thru approx.25% of the NHL SEASON

Overall Thread: +5.24 units (W/L = 32-39-1 overall = .450 pct)
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Breakdown by Category (all are included in Overall Record):

OVER/UNDERS: -6.49 units (W/L = 10-14-1 overall = .416 pct)
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TEAM TOTALS: -4.00 units (W/L = 0-2 overall = .000 pct)
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MONEYLINES: +16.75 units (W/L = 17-15 = .531 pct)
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PUCKLINES: +2.40 units (W/L = 2-0 = 1.000 pct)
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PARLAYS: +3.83 units (W/L = 3-2 = .600 pct)
(all 2-teamers)
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OVERTIME PROP:-7.00 units (W/L = 0-6 overall = .000 pct)
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1 UNIT PLAYS: W/L = 25-33-1 = .431 pct

2 UNIT PLAYS: W/L = 4-5 = .444 pct

3 UNIT PLAYS: W/L = 0-1 = .000 pct

4 UNIT PLAYS: W/L = 2-0 = 1.000 pct

5 UNIT PLAYS: W/L = 1-0 = 1.000 pct


Brutalized myself on the Overtime Props, which I stopped playing.
And the Totals haven't been good.

Moneylines and Pucklines have been fine. If I can convince myself to not be stubborn, I should stick with those and stop playing Totals and Props.

3-0 combined record on 4-or-5 unit plays, tells me my high confidence picks are on-point.

**note: there is a 0.25 unit discrepancy somewhere. My book shows +5.49 units ahead, and that's what the summary figure comes up with. But the ongoing thread shows +5.24 so somewhere I missed 0.25 units but too lazy to try to figure that out.

[hotcross]

Friday Nov.24

BUFFALO +100 // 1 unit to win 1

[hotcross]

11/24 results:

+1.00 BUFFALO ----> score 3-1 win at home vs. EDM

Thread: +6.24 units (W/L = 33-39-1 overall = .458 pct)
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Sunday Nov.26 - one pick for today's short card:

EDMONTON +113 // 1 unit to win 1.13

[hotcross]

11/26 results:

+1.13 EDMONTON ----> score 4-2 road win at BOS

Thread: +7.37 units (W/L = 34-39-1 overall = .465 pct)
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[hotcross]

Tuesday Nov.28 - two picks

EDMONTON -200 // 2 units to win 1

PARLAY 2-teams (one ML, one total): EDM -200 & UNDER 5.5 -115 SJ@PHI
risk 1 unit to win 1.84

Reasons - long explanations:

Must-win game for Edmonton on home ice against one of the worst teams in the league, Arizona. The home team Oilers have underachieved overall this year, but won 2 of their last 3 games, which were road games, and the one loss was somewhat surprising against Buffalo however I played and won with Buffalo in that game because Edmonton was starting their backup goalie Brossoit. Tonight's game doesn't qualify for me as a "lock"/high-unit pick, but I am willing to risk 3 units between the straight-up moneyline & including it in a parlay, because I truly feel this is a must-win game for the Oilers.

As for the total pick, and fully aware I've been bad with totals, but this is the second time SJ and Philly have played this year. They played opening night on Oct.4 in San Jose and I wrongly picked the Under in that game (5-3 final, Philly won on the road) which was supported by long-term trend history among these two teams. Tonight both teams are starting their backup goalies....so why not take the Over?? Well, I expect both teams to focus on defense, especially Philly who have a terrible losing streak going in which the keep blowing 3rd-period leads. Also, the backup goalie for San Jose is Aaron Dell and he is good. Neuvirth on the home side of the ice handled himself well early in the season, but has allowed 5 goals in his past two starts, so he needs to turn-up his play in partnership with the Flyers playing stronger defense. San Jose is the strongest defensive team in the NHL, but on offense the Sharks have been limited, which may help to explain the thin moneyline on this game. Thus I'm including the UNDER in a parlay with the EDMONTON moneyline.

[grey area]

BOL tonight Hotcross

[hotcross]

11/28 results:

+1.00 EDMONTON ----> score 3-2 home Overtime win vs. ARIZ
+1.84 PARLAY 2-teams ----> EDMONTON ML -200,, & UNDER 5.5 SJ@PHI score 3-1 SJ road win at PHI
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11/28 = +2.84 units (W/L = 2-0)


Thread: +10.21 units (W/L = 36-39-1 overall = .480 pct)
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[hotcross]

OK tonight's small card is a bit tricky. I'm going with another mixed parlay. Also locking in one game for tomorrow.

Wednesday Nov.29

PARLAY 2-teams (one ML, one total): STL -230 & UNDER 5.5 -105 WINN@COL
risk 1 unit to win 1.80

*St. Louis should whoop the visiting Ducks. However these teams play a lot of 1-goal games if you look at past history. The home team has won 9 of 10 previous matchups. Blues right now are also playing much better, and healthy. The previous trends are the only reason I hesitate playing the puckline.

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Thursday Nov.30
TORONTO -110 // 1.10 units to win 1

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Thursday Nov.30 - adding

MONTREAL +105 // 1 unit to win 1.05
UNDER 5.5 -125 VGS@MINN // 1.25 units to win 1

[hotcross]

11/29 + 11/30 results:

-1.00 PARLAY 2-teams (Wed.Nov.29): STL -230 & UNDER 5.5 -105 WINN@COL ---->
-----> score 3-2 STL lost at home vs ANA,, score 3-2 COL home win vs WPG

+1.00 TORONTO ------> score 6-4 TOR road win at EDM
+1.05 MONTREAL ------> score 6-3 MTL road win at DET
-1.25 UNDER 5.5 -125 VGS@MINN ------> score 4-2 MINN home win vs VGS (5 goals in 3rd period, incl. empty net)
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11/29 + 11/30 = -0.20 units (W/L = 2-2)


Thread: +10.01 units (W/L = 38-41-1 overall = .481 pct)
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Up to date now

[hotcross]

Friday Dec.1

NEW JERSEY +1.5 PUCKLINE -305 // 3.05 units to win 1

puck drops in about 15 minutes. Expect a one-goal win by either team in this game. Colorado's captain and top goal scorer Landeskog is still out serving his 4-game suspension. Colorado beat Winnipeg on Wed.night 3-2. New Jersey hasn't played since Monday night at home they lost 3-2 to Florida, I think they will be prepared tonight after off-schedule the past few nights. A lot of juice to lay on the +1.5 line worth it in this case.

[hotcross]

12/1 results:

+1.00 NEW JERSEY +1.5 PUCKLINE -305 ----> score 2-1 road win at COL

Thread: +11.01 units (W/L = 39-41-1 overall = .487 pct)
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We didn't need no stinkin' puckline, NJ won outright.
And one-goal game as predicted. Wanted the insurance +1.5 in this game.

Thank you and Goodnight

[hotcross]

Saturday Dec.2

very interesting matchups tonight. Looks difficult card to predict, but games should be real good.

next games start in less than 5-minutes....

Working to see if I have anything for the 4 games that start at 8pm, 9pm, 10pm Eastern

[hotcross]

Saturday Dec.2

DALLAS +115 win in regulation (3-way line) // 1 unit to win 1.15

*puck drops in 10-minutes

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12/2 results:

-1.00 DALLAS in regulation ----> score 3-2 home win vs CHI in shootout after overtime

Thread: +10.01 units (W/L = 39-42-1 overall = .481 pct)
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[hotcross]

Monday Dec.4

FLORIDA +106 // 2 units to win 2.12

*mainly because goalie matchup, Luongo has played well even on nights when the team loses. Opponent NY Islanders actually let a lot of scoring and the goalies aren't very good, no matter which one starts because they keep rotating them both in from game to game - don't think they like either goalie so much. Also NYI lost 6-5 against Ottawa in their last game, not sure how that can happen.

[hotcross]

wonderful....Luongo injured in 2nd Period, and NYI instantly scores on backup Reimer. Florida will have to overcome this. Not an excuse for the pick, just for my tracking purpose. Game was tied 1-1 at time of injury, now 2-1 score about halfway thru game

[hotcross]

Florida scores 2 goals pretty quick on consecutive Power Plays, now 3-2 Florida. For some reason Cal Clutterbuck of NYI got upset and thrown out of game, giving the power play chances to Florida

[hotcross]

12/4 results:

-2.00 FLORIDA ----> score 5-4 home loss vs NYI in shootout after overtime

Thread: +8.01 units (W/L = 39-43-1 overall = .475 pct)
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backup goalie James Reimer allowed 3 goals on 19 shots (.842 save pct), plus the shootout loss (doesn't count towards goals allowed stat, but still lost the shootout)..... after Roberto Luongo was injured early in 2nd Period - appeared to be a groin injury, but so far official news says "right leg injury" for Bobby Lu.

Florida is in trouble now because Reimer has been in the league for 7 years and has showed declining performance.

[hotcross]

Tuesday Dec.5

OVER 5.5 +125 BUF@COL // 2 units to win 2.50

I feel strongly this game will be high-scoring, certainly 6 or more total goals. Keep in mind I'm pretty bad at totals. Hopefully this won't be a 2-unit pick to regret...but I tried several ways looking at the game to get away from this pick, and yet here I'm playing it.

Depending where you play, the line might be offered as Over 5 -140 or something like that. I'm able to get over 5.5 goals +125 taking out the possibility of a push.

By the way, do I have anyone tailing these picks? Fading? Don't be shy, I can take it either way.

I play all the games that I post here and my purpose for doing this is to help myself improve and remain disciplined.

[hotcross]

Over won last night

Wednesday Dec.6

PHILADELPHIA +115 // 1 unit to win 1.15

Edmonton goalie Brossoit is just bad, in over his head. Philly has the players to take advantage of him. Flyers also have made some lineup changes that look effective. Risky to pick Philly as bad as they looked during a 10-game losing streak, but see them getting 2nd win in a row tonight for the public betting burial.

[oChRoNiCo]

Good call on Philly!

[hotcross]

12/5 & 12/6:

+2.50 OVER 5.5 +125 BUF@COL ----> (Tue.Dec.5) score 4-2 BUF road win at COL (Jack Eichel empty net)
+1.15 PHILADELPHIA +115 ----> (Wed.Dec.6) score 4-2 PHI road win at EDM (Wayne Simmonds empty net)
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12/5 & 12/6 = +3.65 units (W/L = 2-0)


Thread: +11.66 units (W/L = 41-43-1 overall = .488 pct)
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