Hotcross NHL 2017-18 Thread

[hotcross]

Wednesday March 28

this is what I got for the 2 late games starting in about 10-minutes. I'll do a couple quick write-ups in the next post, but probably won't get that done before puck drops.....

VEGAS -0.5 -133 regulation win // 4 units to win 3

PHILADELPHIA +120 ML // 5 units to win 6

[hotcross]

Arizona @ Vegas - not only is Vegas the better team and their goalie Fleury playing great, but this is the fifth game of a road-trip for Arizona which began a week ago last Wednesday. They somewhat surprisingly won in Tampa on Monday by a convincing 4-1 score. Prior to that, Coyotes lost two games, and won the game at Buffalo which began the road-trip. The only way Vegas doesn't win and dominate tonight, would be to see them play with low-effort (as we saw last night by two contending teams Pittsburgh and Anaheim - but both those teams were on the road). Vegas is still playing to win the Pacific Division in which they have a lead, and there is no reason for them to let-up against Arizona tonight.

Philadelphia @ Colorado - this appears to be a hard matchup to call, and the Public consensus is on Colorado as the home team. They might end-up being right about the outcome. However I wonder how many of them know about the goalie matchup tonight, since that was only decided within about the past hour. Michael Neuvirth is making his return for Philly the visitors tonight, while it will be Andrew Hammond for Colorado the home team. Hammond we might remember from his improbably run up-to the playoffs in 2015 for Ottawa, but his performance has declined since then and he has not played in the NHL at all this season (been in AHL). Neuvirth on the other hand played respectable hockey earlier this year before he was injured.

The goalie matchup is not the only reason I like Philadelphia tonight. They just lost the past 2 in a row, both in overtime, including last night in Dallas. They have to be desperate beyond belief tonight. But same could be said for Colorado, as both teams have not yet secured playoff spots in their respective conferences. Although Philly has the disadvantage of this being their third game in 4 nights, they have won 3 of their past 6 games, and in the other 3 all of those were overtime losses, so they've grabbed points 6 straight games. Games are underway as I finish typing, this one is the game to watch.

[hotcross]

Philly takes the early lead with a 5-on-5 goal. Forgot wanted to mention the only other game between these teams saw Colorado get a 5-4 shootout win as the road team on Saturday, Nov.4

Arizona so far has 1-0 lead in the game at Vegas, and leading shots 10 vs 4 about halfway thru the first period. I'd be really surprised if Vegas takes this game off, but I was incredibly surprised Anaheim did the same thing last night in Vancouver....that's why I said it a couple days ago....when you get into this last 2-weeks of the regular season, it can be very difficult to predict motivation.


OK Vegas just tied it up already 1-1

[hotcross]

March 28 results:

-4.00 VEGAS -0.5 -133 regulation----> score 3-2 home loss vs ARIZ
+6.00 PHILADELPHIA +120 ML ----> score 2-1 road win at COL
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March 28 = +2.00 units (W/L = 1-1)

OVERALL THREAD: +62.83 units (W/L = 129-130-8 overall = .498 pct)

LAST 25 PICKS: +8.71 units (W/L = 11-13-1 Last 25 picks = .458 pct)
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Once again, sorry to say, the big favorite games seem a bit scripted to me at this point in the season. Vegas were far behind Arizona in shot attempts on goal...until the 3rd period.....then they caught up and were in fact trying to come back. The script was to try to tie the game and send it to overtime late....they still have to try to make it happen, its not a "given". That's what happened in the other big moneyline favorite game earlier tonight which I didn't pick - NY Rangers at Washington. Rangers lead 2-1 and were playing with high effort, while Washington was not until the very end, when they did succeed in forcing overtime. I hate to sound this way and hate to believe this stuff, but that's the way I see it.

[hotcross]

Thursday March 29

FLORIDA -0.5 +100 regulation win // 1 unit to win 1

SAN JOSE +135 ML // 2 units to win 2.70

COLUMBUS -0.5 -110 regulation win // 3.30 units to win 3

LOS ANGELES -0.5 -152 regulation win // 4.56 units to win 3

[TheCaliforniaKid]

I like the utilization of the 60 minute win (regulation time) bets. Good Luck

[hotcross]

the edit before gametime was for the units risked amount. All look right now. Might add another game or two.

[hotcross]

Thursday March 29 - adding ::

CHICAGO -0.5 +234 regulation win // 2.13 units to win 5

taking a shot on this risky game. And going with the regulation win on the underdog to get the most value on the +plus odds if they can pull it off. Winnipeg has won 6 games in a row, including each of the last 4 overtime wins! Chicago is an inferior team, but actually has Winnipeg's number this year so far winning 2 of 3 previous matchups, none of which went to overtime. This is a home game for Chicago before they hit the road for their next two games. Meantime Winnipeg faces Toronto on Saturday, so I'm going with the logic this could be a "trap game" for them as we have seen with some other teams recently.

[TheCaliforniaKid]

Good call on the Hawks. Led every step of the way.

[hotcross]

thanks for the comment !!!

Heads up, probably no picks today, games getting tougher. And I have things going on today. I'm considering Colorado in a must-win home game, but I really liked how Chicago played yesterday, they may have renewed inspiration, and they usually play Colorado tight anyway. Should be great competitive games on the 6-game Friday schedule, but after a good night for me, probably gonna just watch and enjoy.
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March 29 results:

-1.00 FLORIDA -0.5 +100 regulation----> score 3-2 road Overtime loss at OTT (Jean-Gabriel Pageau scores on Penalty Shot in overtime)
-2.00 SAN JOSE +135 ML ----> score 5-3 road loss at NSH (Nick Bonino empty net)
+3.00 COLUMBUS -0.5 -110 regulation win ----> score 5-1 road win at CGY
+3.00 LOS ANGELES -0.5 -152 regulation win ----> score 4-2 home win vs ARIZ (Jeff Carter hat-trick with 4:25 remaining; followed by Anze Kopitar empty net with 2-seconds remaining)
+5.00 CHICAGO -0.5 +234 regulation win ----> score 6-2 home win vs WPG
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March 29 = +8.00 units (W/L = 3-2)

OVERALL THREAD: +70.83 units (W/L = 132-132-8 overall = .500 pct)

LAST 25 PICKS: +15.47 units (W/L = 12-12-1 Last 25 picks = .500 pct)
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Last night was a perfect example of risking units based on confidence. 3-2 W/L resulted in +8.00 units.

Just assume instead of the five picks, I only played the "most confident" picks, that would have been just two: Columbus and Los Angeles, went 2-0 for +6.00 units which also would have been a good night. So in general, I can see the argument for reducing number of picks per night. Either way, it always looks easy and genius when it works.

[hotcross]

Saturday March 31

PITTSBURGH -1 -180 // 3.60 units to win 2

With only 4 games remaining on the schedule, Penguins need to win this home game vs Montreal, before they host Washington tomorrow on Sunday, then travel to Columbus next Thursday, before the final game on home Friday vs Ottawa. They currently have 2nd place in the Division with Columbus and Philadelphia right behind them, so they do need to take advantage of the lesser team Montreal in this case. Penguins won 5-3 in both of the previous matches against Montreal, both were fairly recent games. The puckline -1.5 can be had at -105 odds, but I'm gonna "play it safe" with the -1 line available at my book (pushes if they win by exactly 1).

[hotcross]

Saturday March 31 - adding ::

UNDER 6 +109 NYI@NJ // 1 unit to win 1.09

I'm not gonna elaborate on the reasons for this pick, because in general it seems foolish to pick Unders in this league. Especially with the NY Islanders playing, Overs are almost automatic. Kinda going contrarian here.

[hotcross]

Saturday March 31 - adding ::

ST. LOUIS -0.5 +125 regulation win // 2 units to win 2.50

St. Louis on a back-to-back into Arizona tonight, after losing in Overtime 4-3 at Vegas last night. St. Louis has played a ton of Overtime games recently, 5 of their last 7 games, winning 6 in a row before the OT loss last night. Fatigue could be a factor, but they've actually performed well in recent back-to-backs. Arizona might also be very fatigued themselves, having played 16 games in march vs. only 12 for St. Louis. Both teams have played the same number of games in the past week, but its the first home game back for Arizona, after a 6-game road trip.

[hotcross]

1-2 on Saturday for -1 unit.

Sunday April 1

UNDER 5.5 -105 NJ@MTL // 1.05 units to win 1

Not sure if New Jersey is gonna try their best to win this game. We've seen a lot of "trap games" lately with the better teams kinda taking a game off against lowly opponents. Montreal has so many players out of the lineup, yet the goalie matchup will be Keith Kinkaid at Carey Price.

Both teams have gone Over in each of their last 3 games. Let's see if the trend gets reversed today. I wonder if this does go Under, it might also go to Overtime...but I'm just risking a unit on the Under here, which has come down from a line of 6.

Might add one of the two later games after this, working on it now.

[hotcross]

Would take Anaheim, but gonna pass after the line has gotten away on them as a huge favorite at home tonight vs Colorado. Both teams really badly need the win, and Colorado won the first two meetings this year 3-1 score each time, and both games were in Denver earlier in the season. Anaheim doesn't generally blow teams out, so as a now -180 or higher favorite, not worth the risk. Colorado does have a fair amount of injured players, while Anaheim is relatively healthy. Colorado's recent wins in their past 10 games or so were against lesser teams that they should beat....so I'd say most indicators point to Anaheim winning, but let's see who has the most desire. Its a very important game in the standings and the loser might not make the Playoffs at all.

[hotcross]

March 31&April 1 results:

+2.00 PITTSBURGH -1 -180 ----> score 5-2 home win vs MTL
-1.00 UNDER 6 +109 NYI@NJ ----> score 4-3 NJ home win vs NYI
-2.00 ST. LOUIS -0.5 +125 regulation ----> score 6-0 road loss at ARIZ
+1.00 UNDER 5.5 -105 NJ@MTL ----> score 2-1 NJ road win at MTL
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March 31&April 1 = +0 units (W/L = 2-2)

OVERALL THREAD: +70.83 units (W/L = 134-134-8 overall = .500 pct)

LAST 25 PICKS: +5.90 units (W/L = 11-14 Last 25 picks = .440 pct)
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Picked too many games Saturday after the first pick on Pittsburgh. The stupid one was NY Islanders to go Under - that just doesn't happen....actually they scored one late to make the final score 4-3.

[hotcross]

Monday April 2

COLORADO first period only moneyline +150 // 2 units to win 3

OVER 5.5 +110 COL@LAK // 2 units to win 2.20

Colorado on a back-to-back after losing 4-3 Overtime in Anaheim last night. They earned the one point in the standings for that performance, but playoff hopes are slipping away with 4 teams all bunched up for the wildcard spots. Both Colorado and Los Angeles only have 3-games remaining including tonight. It is for that reason I think this is the type of game that could have more than one empty-net goals before the final horn sounds. If either team is behind, they will pull the goalie and probably repeatedly if the other team hits the empty net.

Of my two picks here, I think the Over is the stronger pick than the First Period pick. However, at +150 odds its worth a shot for Colorado to look to gain the early momentum in this game.

[hotcross]

The first period moneyline is a push if the game is tied at the end of the first period.

[hotcross]

lost yesterday

Tuesday April 3

MONTREAL +120 ML // 2 units to win 2.40

Final home game of the year for Montreal. Winnipeg final road game and back-to-back for them.

[hotcross]

bad team Montreal, forced Overtime after being down 3-0 early at home, only to lose in Overtime 5-4. Of course Winnipeg is the better team, but they were sitting some players for rest and using their backup goalie Steve Mason on a road back-to-back.

I better tighten up. Lost 3 picks in a row for -6 units past two days.

[hotcross]

Wed. April 4

UNDER 5.5 -102 CHI@STL // 4.08 units to win 4

game starts in about 10-minutes. Previous two games between these two went well Over the total. St. Louis fighting for their playoff life, and Chicago will play them tough, but I think St. Louis will focus on stingy defense. Both teams are weak on the Power Play. A lot of injuries/players out for both teams also.

[hotcross]

Wed. April 4 - adding ::

ANAHEIM -1.5 puckline +185 // 2 units to win 3.70

I don't think Minnesota even wants to win this game because they already have a playoff spot locked up. They have to finish the regular season with 3 road games starting tonight in Anaheim, then tomorrow at LA Kings, with the finale on Saturday in San Jose. I'm not exactly sure yet where the playoff seedings align, but Minnesota might have the ability to avoid playing Winnipeg or Nashville in Round 1. The one concern I have about Anaheim here would be starting goalie Ryan Miller, who has played decent this year, but not quite as good in his recent starts.

[hotcross]

April 2,3,4 results:

-2.00 COLORADO +150 first period ML ----> score 2-0 LAK home after first period
-2.00 OVER 5.5 +110 COL@LAK ----> final score 3-1 COL road loss at LAK
-2.00 MONTREAL +120 ML ----> score 5-4 MTL home Overtime loss vs WINN
-4.08 UNDER 5.5 -102 CHI@STL ----> score 4-3 STL home loss vs CHI (Duncan Keith scores game-winning Power Play goal with 9-seconds remaining)
+3.70 ANAHEIM -1.5 puckline +185 ----> score 3-1 home win vs MINN (Andrew Cogliano empty net)
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April 2,3,4 = -6.38 units (W/L = 1-4)

OVERALL THREAD: +64.45 units (W/L = 135-138-8 overall = .494 pct)

LAST 25 PICKS: +2.45 units (W/L = 11-14 Last 25 picks = .440 pct)
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Bad run, chasing a bit. Disappointed in myself for another Under pick loss, when I'm just about convinced never to pick any Unders, still did it, and it wasn't close to being right.

Anaheim clinched a playoff spot tonight with their win / and the St. Louis loss.

[hotcross]

Fri. April 6

UNDER 5.5 +107 STL@CHI // 3 units to win 3.21

following-thru on this Under (for better or worse), for the same reasons that didn't work when these two teams played Wednesday in St. Louis. All 3 of the previous meetings this year have gone Over, with St. Louis losing the last game, but beating Chicago the first two times.

[hotcross]

April 6 result:

+3.21 UNDER 5.5 +1.07 STL@CHI ----> score 4-1 STL road win at CHI (Patrik Berglund hat-trick on empty net)
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April 6 = +3.21 units (W/L = 1-0)

OVERALL THREAD: +67.66 units (W/L = 136-138-8 overall = .496 pct)

LAST 25 PICKS: +3.68 units (W/L = 11-14 Last 25 picks = .440 pct)
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Follow-thru play won. I've noticed that sometimes a side or total I'm pretty confident loses, but the very next game involving the same team will hit that pick.

[hotcross]

Saturday April 7

FLORIDA -0.5 -158 regulation win // 3.16 units to win 2

Florida hosts Buffalo who is on back-to-back games. Florida has to win this game, then travel up to Boston for Sunday's last game of the season to decide if they will make the playoffs in the final wildcard spot in the East.

[HockeyRocks]

Saturday April 7

FLORIDA -0.5 -158 regulation win // 3.16 units to win 2

Florida hosts Buffalo who is on back-to-back games. Florida has to win this game, then travel up to Boston for Sunday's last game of the season to decide if they will make the playoffs in the final wildcard spot in the East.

If the Flyers get one point against the Rangers in the afternoon game they secure the final playoff spot...The only way this game means anything to Fla. is the Flyers would need to lose in reg and then Fla would have to win the final 2...

[hotcross]

so you don't think Florida is more motivated than usual in their game??

I cannot explain every scenario when doing my writeups.

[HockeyRocks]

so you don't think Florida is more motivated than usual in their game??

I cannot explain every scenario when doing my writeups.

Of course they would be motivated, however, again if the Flyers get at least one point in the afternoon game, the Panthers game tonight means nothing as they will only be able to garner 96 points where the Flyers will have 97...

[hotcross]

appreciate your input

[HockeyRocks]

appreciate your input

No problem, GL going forward...

[hotcross]

Saturday April 7 - adding ::

PLAYER PROP
ANDERS LEE OVER 0.5 POINTS -120
(NY ISLANDERS)
risk 6 units to win 5

Anders Lee needs one goal to hit 40 total on the season. Players are aware of these milestones and teammates discuss it. He will score in the last game of the season!

[hotcross]

Saturday April 7 - adding ::

TEAM TOTAL OVER 3.5 -102 WINNIPEG // 3.06 units to win 3

Hosting Chicago who are playing Jeff Glass in net. Chicago usually plays well against Winnipeg, but Glass isn't good, and seems to me that the Jets will be looking to pad their stats.

[hotcross]

April 7 results:

+2.00 FLORIDA -0.5 -158 regulation win ----> score 4-3 FLA home win vs BUF
+5.00 PLAYER PROP: ANDERS LEE (NYI) OVER 0.5 POINTS -120 ----> A.Lee scores 40th goal of the season at 6:35 of Third Period at Detroit
+3.00 TEAM TOTAL OVER 3.5 -102 WINNIPEG ----> score 4-1 WINN home win vs CHI
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April 7 = +10.00 units (W/L = 3-0)

OVERALL THREAD: +77.66 units (W/L = 139-138-8 overall = .501 pct)

LAST 25 PICKS: +18.68 units (W/L = 13-12 Last 25 picks = .520 pct)
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sweet 3-0 today for +10 units, 1-0 yesterday for +3.21 units.
also my MLB baseball thread went 3-1 today for +2.06 units.

this is the end of the NHL Regular Season for me, as I will not have a pick on the Sunday game Florida at Boston.

Will post Season Summary here shortly, and then of course be looking for spot picks in the playoffs.

[BestBoyMike]

Hotcross - OVERALL THREAD: +77.66 units (W/L = 139-138-8 overall = .501 pct)

Nice Season!