Hotcross NHL 2017-18 Thread

[hotcross]

Saturday May 5 - EAST Round 2, Game 5 - adding moneyline winner ::

PITTSBURGH +110 ML // 5 units to win 5.50

Penguins have the confidence against the Capitals to win tonight's game 5 on the road.

[hotcross]

Saturday May 5 - WEST Round 2, Game 5

UNDER 5.5 +100 WPG@NSH // 5 units to win 5

Also believe Nashville wins, but game will be tight and the Unders will hit throughout the rest of this series.

[hotcross]

LIVE - EAST Round 2, Game 5 - adding ::

PITTSBURGH +187 ML // 1 unit to win 1.87

END 1st period. Adding one unit for value. Penguins down 2-1 but start the second period on the Power Play.

[BankrollMafia]

LIVE - EAST Round 2, Game 5 - adding ::

PITTSBURGH +187 ML // 1 unit to win 1.87

END 1st period. Adding one unit for value. Penguins down 2-1 but start the second period on the Power Play.

ayyy! lets get it hope you're right. Just took a unit on Penguins live as well.

[hotcross]

they missed a shot with about 3 minutes left that shoulda tied it 4-4. Their fault to be down anyway 4-3 at that point, gave up the goal that tied 3-3 in the first minute of the 3rd. Matt Murray just wasn't any good in net.

[hotcross]

Sunday May 6 - EAST Round 2, Game 5

TAMPA BAY -162 ML // 1.62 units to win 1

[hotcross]

Monday May 7 - EAST Round 2, Game 6

OVERTIME +320 WSH@PITT // 3 units to win 9.60

PITTSBURGH -0.5 -110 regulation win // 2.20 units to win 2
*must win in regulation

I've been chasing Overtime in this series, and with Pittsburgh as a -200 or more favorite tonight, the odds for the Overtime prop are higher. So I'm going with these two wagers which cannot both win, but could both lose. Washington has two key players out tonight, Wilson and Backstrom, so it's hard to imagine them winning on the road in this situation. I'm hoping for overtime, which will result in a +7.40 units win. If Pittsburgh wins in regulation, I'll take a net loss of just one unit for this game. I don't want to pay the -200 moneyline price on Pittsburgh, just in case they lose somehow. The puckline around +150 is a decent option, but I don't often play pucklines.

[hotcross]

Forgot to mention, if Pittsburgh is down a goal at the end of the first or second period, I'll be interested to take them on the moneyline at +plus odds.

[keely85]

like the overtime call, neither team is running away with it...has the makings of a classic written all over it. if either team goes down 2 goals the spread would be a great bet too

[hotcross]

nailed OT

[hotcross]

May 5,6,7 results:

-2.00 OVERTIME +290 PITT@WSH ----> score 6-3 PITT road loss at WSH
-5.00 PITTSBURGH +110 ML
-5.00 UNDER 5.5 +100 WPG@NSH ----> score 6-2 NSH home loss vs WPG
-1.00 PITTSBURGH +187 LIVE end 1p down 2-1 score
------------------
+1.00 TAMPA BAY -162 ML ---> score 3-1 home win vs BOS (TB wins series 4-1 games; won 4 in a row)
-0.50 VEGAS +428 win exactly 4-3 games
-0.50 SAN JOSE +443 win exactly 4-2 games ----> score 3-0 VEGAS road win (win series 4-2 games)
------------------
+9.60 OVERTIME +320 WSH@PITT ----> score 2-1 WSH road Overtime win (WSH wins series 4-2 games)
-2.20 PITTSBURGH -0.5 -110 regulation (hedge wager)
------------------
May 5,6,7 = -5.60 units (W/L = 2-7)

PLAYOFFS TOTAL = -14.98 units (W/L = 15-28 = .348 pct)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington finally beats Pittsburgh in a playoff series! Tom Wilson and Niklas Backstrom were both out tonight, so that was especially good job by the team, taking advantage of a weary Penguins team in a series where goalie Matt Murray played subpar.

interesting stats, up to date as of tonight's result:

Capitals since 2008 = Ovechkin era

55-54 W/L overall in 109 playoff games

7-17 W/L in playoff elimination games

48-37 W/L in the other playoff games

[hotcross]

Sunday May 13 - EAST Round 3, Game 2

OVERTIME +295 WSH@TB // 3 units to win 8.85

[hotcross]

Tuesday May 15 - EAST Round 3, Game 3

OVERTIME +290 TB@WSH // 3 units to win 8.70

it's a chase. Take it or leave it. Tampa looks like such the obvious pick in a "must win" game. I really thought game 2 was going to Overtime as the Capitals would battle hard on the road to take the 2-0 games series lead.....however, Tampa hardly showed up and Caps won easily 6-2 score anyway!

What's different tonight for game 3? Well, Niklas Backstrom is out with a hand issue. Game is in Washington DC.

[hotcross]

Wednesday May 16 - WEST Round 3, Game 3

OVERTIME +295 WPG@VGS // 3 units to win 8.85

VEGAS -134 ML // 5 units to win 3.73

it still looks like I'm chasing Overtime, but really I do believe between both Conferences there should be one OT game somewhere within the first 4 games.

Vegas has a better Overtime record if the game does go there, and I like them to win tonight either way. The road teams have been winning like crazy, but Vegas is a smart team and well-coached. Winnipeg is going to play into their hands. I heard post-game interviews of the two coaches after BOTH of the first two games played in Winnipeg, and it was Gerard Gallant the Vegas coach who had the better attitude after both the game 1 loss and game 2 win....that means something to me.

If both these lose for me tonight, I should probably give up for the playoffs and keep what is left from the regular season winnings to focus on baseball.

[hotcross]

Vegas won 4-2 last night, so I had a small 0.73 unit net win

Thursday May 17 - EAST Round 3, Game 4

OVERTIME +285 TB@WSH // 3 units to win 8.55

No skill involved at this point in time, just keep chasing the Overtime prop. I'm playing it again so I'm posting it. Wish I had done a progressive / martingale strategy on this, but didn't. Lowest +plus odds so far being offered on this in the series for tonight's game. I'm still thinking about the game as for which team I think will win, so might add a pick for that later.

[hotcross]

adding ::

TAMPA BAY +112 ML // 3 units to win 3.36

decided on Tampa to win tonight, so adding this to the Overtime prop already posted.

[hotcross]

Tampa won game 4 but in regulation, so again I had a micro profit.

Didn't play yesterday's game 5 in Vegas because I couldn't figure out which way it would go.

Saturday May 19 - EAST Round 3, Game 5

OVERTIME +315 WSH@TB // 3 units to win 9.45

TAMPA BAY -170 regulation only moneyline // 5.10 units to win 3
*push if game goes to Overtime

Book I use offers this regulation only moneyline, as they did thru the season. So I can play it this way and hope for OT to maximize the win. If Tampa wins in regulation, then I'll be at net zero. I thought hard about taking the Capitals instead at +plus odds, but I think Tampa does win, although if it goes to Overtime then any outcome is possible. I'll also throw this out there - think this game goes Under but not playing that.

[jtoler]

crosser, why every time I see an nhl game and its near the end the winning team is always in defensive posture with the losing team in halfcourt taking shots. Why isnt the winning team ever on the offensive or at least not stressing themselves out having to defend a million shots till the buzzer sounds. or when they get the puck they just slap it to the other end and do it all over again instead of trying to score again.

[hotcross]

it's very simple and common if the score is a one goal lead (or sometimes 2-goal lead),

the team losing will pull their goalie off the ice and then can insert a sixth attacker / a regular skater. So they leave their own net empty, but have more ability to pass the puck around and get a clear shot to attempt to tie the score. And if they fail to do it, often the team who is ahead and defending simply need to get one breakout and dunk the puck into the empty net for an easy tack-on goal. Also they slap it all the way down the ice just to get a reset and break the pressure....that's a violation called "icing" and the face-off stays in their defensive zone near their goal when the team "ices the puck".

Capitals pulled the goalie today down by 2-goal with about two minutes remaining, and succeeded in scoring one goal to make the score 3-2. Then they had time to try it again, and almost did it again. In this case, Tampa never got the empty net goal, so the final remained 3-2 score.

Now if you're talking about what was happening thru the third period when there was more time still remaining, I guess it's kinda like a prevent defense, so to speak. I could go into more detail, but not sure that's what you're asking. I will say the game strategy has changed or evolved to the point we are now, and I think some of it must come from the league encouraging teams to play more of an "exciting" game, instead of shutting down with a lead. When I was younger, I remember a lot of times if a team got a 2-goal lead early in the game, they'd just go into a mode of "trap defense" and basically like a game of keep-away not allowing the team trailing to get the puck (as much as possible). That's changed for sure the past couple years....you see teams blow 2-goal leads all the time because they are not playing solid defense and still playing with offense in mind. I say it must have something to do with direction from the league because the defensive keep-away strategy does not make for an exciting game.

[hotcross]

illustration of the "trap defense"
take a look at how this game started (from 2014)
is this exciting?

[jtoler]

i forgot about empty net as to needing to defend i only barely watch during playoffs so havent seen the games where theyre defending and recover puck and try to score themselves, ive seen long shot empty netters before. just stressful for someone who hardly ever watches it to have money on team defending a hundred shots seems one is gonna go in, see this in soccer too, team leading late on their end defending mostly.

[hotcross]

broke even yesterday with Tampa winning in regulation

Sunday May 20 - WEST Round 3, Game 5

OVERTIME +295 VGS@WPG // 3 units to win 8.85

VEGAS +160 regulation only moneyline // 3 units to win 4.80
*push if game goes to Overtime

I'm too stubborn to let go of the prop bet. Playing it the same as yesterday, except this time with the +plus odds road team on the regulation only moneyline.

Reason for picking Vegas today, even tho it's a tough ask for them to beat Winnipeg twice in a row at home, and 4 games in a row overall after losing game 1, is because Winnipeg didn't have anything left physically at the end of Friday's game. I don't think that changes in 2 days. Fleury has been the better goalie all year. Unless Vegas wants to purposely not play their best today in order to make a game 6 in Vegas, which I can't believe they would do that on purpose and give Winnipeg any life in the series. Vegas should win but I'm hoping for overtime once again.

[hotcross]

May 13 thru May 20 results:

--------Sun. May 13----------
-3.00 OVERTIME +295 WSH@TB ---> score 6-2 WSH road win at TB
-------Tue. May 15-----------
-3.00 OVERTIME +290 TB@WSH ---> score 4-2 TB road win at WSH
--------Wed. May 16----------
+3.73 VEGAS -134 ML ---> score 4-2 home win vs WPG
-3.00 OVERTIME +295 WPG@VGS
-------Thurs. May 17-----------
+3.36 TAMPA BAY +112 ML ---> score 4-2 road win at WSH
-3.00 OVERTIME +285 TB@WSH
-------Sat. May 19-----------
+3.00 TAMPA BAY -170 regulation only ML ---> score 3-2 home win in regulation time vs WSH
-3.00 OVERTIME +315 WSH@TB
-------Sun. May 20-----------
+4.80 VEGAS +160 regulation only ML ---> score 2-1 road win in regulation time at WPG (VGS wins series 4-1 games; won 4 in a row)
-3.00 OVERTIME +295 VGS@WPG
------------------
May 13 thru 20th = -3.11 units (W/L = 4-6)

PLAYOFFS TOTAL = -18.09 units (W/L = 19-34 = .358 pct)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This was stupid to play the Overtime prop bets at all, not to mention for 3 units a pop.
So although I just picked the winner of 4 games in a row to end the week, at the same time -18 units went out on failed Overtime bets. It's not a smart bet as I said earlier in the season....although I did strongly believe one game at least in these Conference finals would have seen Overtime by now....the last two games came close but no cigar.

[hotcross]

Wednesday May 23 - EAST Round 3, Game 7

TAMPA BAY -138 ML // 4.14 units to win 3

In my mind, had Tampa winning this series in 7 games before it started. So I'm going with that read. Furthermore, in previous years Tampa has fallen short of winning the Cup. This year they made trades and also as for the goalie Vasilevskiy he was the best goalie early in the season, which is not as relevant at this point, but these are my reasons.

[hotcross]

adding ::

OVERTIME +285 WSH@TB // 1.40 units to win 4

can't resist!

[hotcross]

adding - LIVE end 1st period (WSH leads 1-0) ::

TAMPA BAY +148 ML // 1 unit to win 1.48

[hotcross]

STANLEY CUP FINALS, Game 1

OVER 6 +143 WSH@VGS // 3 units to win 4.29
*selling 0.5 goals

WASHINGTON +140 ML // 3 units to win 4.20

Might add more units on the Over if this line moves at all prior to gametime. These teams should be an interesting contrast of styles.

I'm also going to wait to see who wins this game, them possibly hit the Series price. I am thinking for sure they split the first 2 games. I want to take Washington to win the series but right now it's only around +135, and although I'm picking them to win tonight, there is a decent chance they won't...so in that case the series price will be better after the game.

[hotcross]

May 23 results:

-4.14 TAMPA BAY -138 ML ---> score 4-0 home loss vs WSH
-1.40 OVERTIME +285 WSH@TB
-1.00 TAMPA BAY +148 LIVE
------------------
May 23 = -6.54 units (W/L = 0-3)

PLAYOFFS TOTAL = -24.63 units (W/L = 19-37 = .339 pct)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wanted to tally up results as of my record before the Stanley Cup Finals.

Really surprised Tampa got shutout in both Game 6 and 7.

Playoffs been rough going for me. Didn't stick with my original plan to only play the best spots. Got carried away taking those Overtime props, which cost me -18 units just in the week May 13-20...would be pretty close to break-even units for the playoffs if not for those.

Will do what I can for the Finals, but not trying to make it all back at this point. Try to make a dent in it. I was up good for the regular season +77.66 units, so even after the playoffs downfall, still up over 50 units on NHL.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/hockey-betting/3427910-hotcross-nhl-2017-18-thread-p12.html#post27711025

[hotcross]

won +1.29 units on Monday's game 1 as the game soared Over, but Capitals lost 6-4

STANLEY CUP FINALS, Game 2 - Wed. May 30

SERIES WASHINGTON +201 // 2 units to win 4.02

WASHINGTON +137 regulation only ML // 2 units to win 2.74
*push if game goes to Overtime

My line of thinking here is I envisioned the first 2 games being split, and as I said Monday, if Washington lost game 1 then I would look to hammer the series price. Well, a little case of cold feet has now ensued, because Vegas could very easily win both of these first 2 home games. So what I am doing is 2 units on the Series price at this time, along with 2 units on the game. This way, if Vegas wins again tonight, I could add a unit or two on Washington again on the Series at somewhere around +325 odds (guessing odds would be right around there).

Notice again the dog +plus odds for the game are actually Higher to use the "Regulation only moneyline"

- A couple posters questioned me about this during the regular season. My primary book offers it, but also I am looking at 5dimes right now and they also offer it as an option with the "First 60-minutes" category. It's right there for anyone interested.

It's NOT a 3-way line. You can go -0.5 spread in regulation at even higher +plus odds (this offers no push protection), or you can take the regulation (60-minutes) moneyline as I am, and with the moneyline option it will be a push if the game goes to Overtime.

[hotcross]

adding more units on these alternate lines ::

WASHINGTON -0.5 +194 regulation win // 2 units to win 3.88
*must win in regulation (60-minutes line)

WASHINGTON -1 +232 alternate puckline // 2 units to win 4.64

instead of the Alternate puckline -1.5 @ +308, playing the -1 version @ +232

1. fade worthy poster just played Vegas +1.5 line @ -525 odds

2. Ovechkin in Monday's post-game interview said maybe the Capitals had a few jitters for their first Stanly Cup Finals game. They got it out of their system, and played a decent game scoring 4 goals, so I say they will be ready for game 2.

[Hman]

GL tonight HC

[Bad Tattoo]

[IMG]<a href="https://ibb.co/cYu5iJ"><img src="https://preview.ibb.co/igYbqy/caps.jpg" alt="caps" border="0"></a>[/IMG]

[hotcross]

May 28 and 30th results:

--------Mon. May 28 - Game 1 ---------
+4.29 OVER 6 +143 WSH@VGS *sell 0.5 goals ---> score 6-4 VGS home win vs WSH (Tomas Nosek empty net)
-3.00 WASHINGTON +140 ML

-------Wed. May 30 - Game 2 -----------
+2.74 WASHINGTON +137 regulation only ML ---> score 3-2 road win in regulation time at VGS
+3.88 WASHINGTON -0.5 +194 regulation win
+0 push WASHINGTON -1 +232 alternate puckline
------------------
May 28 and 30th = +7.91 units (W/L = 3-1-1)

PLAYOFFS TOTAL = -16.72 units (W/L = 22-38-1 = .366 pct)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PENDING ::
SERIES WIN - STANLEY CUP FINALS
WASHINGTON +201 // 2 units to win 4.02

tough to have Kuznetsov injured early in Game 2, but Caps still found a way to tie the series

my series Washington might be toast on that, unless Washington goes eye-for-an-eye and takes out someone on Vegas....I might buy-out of this....ugh, only 2 units probably just let it ride

Records up-to-date

[Bad Tattoo]

[hotcross]

STANLEY CUP FINALS, Game 3 - Saturday June 2

UNDER 5.5 -112 VGS@WSH // 4.48 units to win 4

face-off.....now!!!!