Doubt I feel strongly enough to play either of today's games. But as for Nashville they have much more depth, the better goalie, plus already have the track record of beating Colorado in Denver. Think the game 5 loss should be a wake-up call to prod them into finishing the series today.
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Comment -
Sunday April 22
PHILADELPHIA +152 regulation only moneyline // 3.60 units to win 5.50
*push if game goes to Overtime
I don't think Malkin is playing for Pittsburgh, and doubt it's factored into the line if he is out. Hornquist should be in, but maybe he's not 100%.
The odds offered are a little higher for the Regulation moneyline, which I like and if the game happens to go to overtime it will push. Philly has been the home dog this year, referring to the Super Bowl run of the Eagles also, so let's see if the Flyers can pull-off the same.Comment -
Avalanche MLComment -
book I use actually defaults to "Regulation Only" for hockey
Notice it's Regulation Moneyline Only - I'm very specific about that all season. Meaning it's NOT the same as -0.5 regulation, which I have shown picks in that manner as well.
I have to deliberately make sure to go to the "Overtime included" line if that's what I want.
I'd rather not say exactly which book, but it's unconventional, bitcoin denominated, and very very low juice. The only time I look like I got a bad price on something is because often I'm too busy to get the wagers in at the right time to get the best price....which is a leak in my game I'm working to solve.Comment -
it IS a push guys Regulation Moneyline - think about it
if it goes to Overtime, who won in regulation?
Also if you take the Favorite as Regulation Moneyline, its a bigger -minus odds because you get the possibility of a push.
It is NOT a 3-way lineComment -
Monday April 23
WASHINGTON -0.5 +164 regulation win // 2 units to win 3.28
WASHINGTON -1.5 +275 alternate puckline // 1 unit to win 2.75
Notice these have to win in regulation time. Both lose if the game goes to Overtime.
Washington has a 6-6 W/L record in Game 6 playoff games in the Ovechkin era. That's right where they want to keep it. They are even worse in game 7's.Comment -
April 19, 21, 22, 23 results:
-5.00 TORONTO +110 ML ---> score 3-1 road loss at BOS (BOS leads series 3-1 games)
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+1.60 TORONTO +160 ML ----> score 4-3 road win at BOS
-1.00 UNDER 5.5 +102 TOR@BOS ----> score 4-3 (in regulation)
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-3.60 PHILADELPHIA +152 regulation ML ----> score 8-5 home loss vs PITT (PITT wins series 4-2 games)
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+3.28 WASHINGTON -0.5 +164 regulation win ----> score 6-3 road win at CBJ
+2.75 WASHINGTON -1.5 +275 alternate puckline ----> score 6-3 (WSH wins series 4-2 games)
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April 19, 21, 22, 23 = -1.97 units (W/L = 3-3)
PLAYOFFS TOTAL thru Round 1 = -12.58 units (W/L = 9-12 = .428 pct)
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Round 1 overbet a couple of untimely large losses set me back. Winning the smaller ones, ugh. At least hit good today.
We have one game 7 coming up Toronto at Boston, but I won't play that one. Look to improve in Round 2 and beyond.
Comment -
My thoughts on tonight's game 7
Lean towards Boston at home but one thing I'd be worried about is it appears the Toronto goalie Frederik Andersen found the rhythm that he had during much of the season where he had long stretches playing incredible....this series didn't start that way, but the last two games yes...if he stays hot, it will change the complexion of the game.Comment -
it's apparent after 1 Period this is not the version of Andersen the difference maker. Toronto scored first but down 3-2 end of the first.Comment -
Thursday April 26 - Round 2, Game 1
WASHINGTON -120 ML (includes overtime) // 1.20 units to win 1
WASHINGTON -0.5 +132 regulation win // 1 unit to win 1.32
*must win in regulation
Dipping the toe in the water with game 1. Washington was a good home team this year, while Pittsburgh was a sub-.500 road team with a 17-20-4 road record. Now this IS the playoffs, and important Game 1 for both teams. Capitals know they have to get the lead in this series if they are to be successful in finally defeating the Penguins in the playoffs.
Pittsburgh has 2 notable players not expected to play tonight: Evgeni Malkin and Carl Hagelin.
Washington is on a current trend of 16-5 W/L overall.
- Similarly, the Capitals are 16-7 in their last 23 games playing on 2 days rest.
- Also, Capitals are 75-32 in their last 107 home games versus a team with a losing road record.Comment -
Thursday April 26 - WEST Round 2, Game 1
VEGAS -0.5 +117 regulation win // 1.71 units to win 2
*must win in regulation
OVERTIME +290 SJ@VGS // 0.50 units to win 1.45
Obviously both of these picks cannot win, but they can both lose. I'm hedging my pick as Vegas winning the game in regulation. I don't think San Jose will win in regulation. All season, Vegas has been a team getting a lot of breaks in their favor. This is kinda unknown what will happen with Vegas, other than the crowd is gonna be nuts and that provides a small boost for the home team, plus Vegas will have the opportunity to match-up on certain face-offs as the home team.
The Overtime pick is there as insurance. If Vegas wins in regulation as I'm predicting, the net profit will be 1.50 units on te game. Instead if the game goes to Overtime, it won't matter who wins and generate a net loss of just 0.26 units.
Just wanted to mention, this Sharks team with many of the same players who have playoff experience in recent years, generally DO win their game 1 matches. So that trend I am going against with the pick.Comment -
WEST Round 2 - SERIES OUTCOME
VEGAS +428 for winning 4-3 games exactly // 0.50 units to win 2.14
SAN JOSE +443 for winning 4-2 games exactly // 0.50 units to win 2.21
Again, both of these cannot win. I think they are the two most likely scenarios for the series. Looking to add a little profit with small risk involved, and perhaps the opportunity to place hedge bets in Game 6 and/or 7.
I don't think this series ends in 5 games. Likely it will go 7 games.Comment -
Saturday April 28
WEST Round 2, Game 2
OVERTIME +300 SJ@VGS // 2 units to win 6
UNDER 5 +130 SJ@VGS // 2 units to win 2.60
*selling 0.5 goals
I wanna also say San Jose wins tonight, but can't bet against Vegas at home. Think this will be a tight one.Comment -
April 26 & 28 results:
-1.20 WASHINGTON -120 ML ---> score 3-2 home loss in regulation vs PITT
-1.00 WASHINGTON -0.5 +132 regulation
+2.00 VEGAS -0.5 +117 regulation win ---> score 7-0 home win vs SJ
-0.50 OVERTIME +290 SJ@VGS
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-2.00 UNDER 5 +130 SJ@VGS *sell 0.5 goals ----> score 4-3 SJ road win in Double-Overtime
+6.00 OVERTIME +300 SJ@VGS ---> score 4-3 SJ road win in Double-Overtime
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April 26 & 28 = +3.30units (W/L = 2-4)
PLAYOFFS TOTAL = -9.28 units (W/L = 11-16 = .407 pct)
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PENDING ::
WEST SERIES ROUND 2
VEGAS +428 win exactly 4-3 games // 0.50 units to win 2.14
SAN JOSE +443 win exactly 4-2 games // 0.50 units to win 2.21
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Talk about "same thing makes you laugh, will make you cry" - going back to the Game 1's on Thursday it was Washington controlling that game with a 2-0 lead in the third period, then like they have done now every time they face Pittsburgh in the playoffs, found a way to lose, allowing 3-goals in a 5-minute span to lose 3-2....unreal!
But in Vegas for Game 1, they came out rapid firing on San Jose, scoring 3-goals in 90-seconds early on in the first period, on their way to a 7-0 final score.
As for tonight Game 2, got the under wrong but nailed the Overtime prop bet. Bittersweet net-win, because I just don't think Unders are very good picks nowadays across all sports....but you still see me pick unders....baseball been doing alright with them so far.Comment -
Monday April 30
BOSTON +138 ML // 2 units to win 2.76
So after getting outplayed severely in game 1 at home, Tampa hosts game 2 as a -150 or higher favorite?? The only thing they had going for them was more shots on goal (36 shots vs 24 shots)....but that tells a story right there, losing 6-2....now one of those was an empty-net, but the porous Tampa defense is what allowed the other 5 goals to be scored on 23 shots by Boston. Rask had a .944 save pct for the game vs only .783 for Vasilevskiy.
Certainly, Tampa has practiced and reviewed where their holes were. Fine, they might win tonight, but I think it's a mistake to lay the juice, or think they will cover a puckline after that performance. Give me the better team and better playing goalie. Just because all the other Round 2 series are tied 1-1 games, doesn't mean this one has to be!Comment -
terrible game played by Boston, 20 shots (scored 2), and hits were 24 Boston vs 42 hits by Tampa
It's not disappointing that they lost on the scoreboard, but that performance was real flatComment -
why do you think Boston has the better team?? ide say Tampas talent trumps Bostons by a pretty good margin. Boston has the better goalie right now and more chemistry but thats about it. Being the away team on top of that too.
I like Tampa for game 4 also, what about you?Comment -
it's just an overall opinion, plus I think something is wrong with Stamkos....if you look at his shot attempts thru these first two games, along with Kucherov and Callahan, they are being held in-check.
Boston played uninspired tonight from the opening face-off and I think it didn't have as much to do with Tampa holding them down.
Tampa does have the skilled offensive players, I agree, but defensively Boston to me is the better team. Tampa was the 27th ranked Penalty Kill during the season. Defense "used to" win championships....sports are evolving tho, and I'm not so sure that's still the case.Comment -
lost with Boston yesterday
Tuesday May 1 - EAST Round 2, Game 3
OVERTIME +305 WSH@PITT // 1 unit to win 3.05
Both of these teams have a history of going to Overtime in Game 3 of playoff series. If they don't do it tonight, chase it again in Game 4. Pittsburgh has not yet played an overtime game at all in the playoffs this year.Comment -
Tuesday May 1 - WEST Round 2, Game 3
NASHVILLE +130 ML // 2 units to win 2.60
Comment -
adding :: LIVE end of 2P - score Winnipeg leads 4-3
NASHVILLE +330 ML // 1 unit to win 3.30
rare for me to use LIVE. Just adding a unit for value price here.Comment -
April 30 & May 1 results:
-2.00 BOSTON +138 ML ---> score 4-2 road loss at TB (Brayden Point empty net)
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-1.00 OVERTIME +305 WSH@PITT ----> score 4-3 WSH road win in regulation
-2.00 NASHVILLE +130 ML ---> score 7-4 road loss at WPG (Blake Wheeler empty net; followed by another by Brandon Tanev)
-1.00 NASHVILLE +330 LIVE end 2P
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April 30 & May 1 = -6.00 units (W/L = 0-4)
PLAYOFFS TOTAL = -15.28 units (W/L = 11-20 = .354 pct)
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PENDING ::
WEST SERIES ROUND 2
VEGAS +428 win exactly 4-3 games // 0.50 units to win 2.14
SAN JOSE +443 win exactly 4-2 games // 0.50 units to win 2.21
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Tonight's results were tuff. Nashville ended first period with a 3-0 lead, then allowed 4 unanswered goals in the second period....I knew Rinne hasn't been great in this series, and in the entire playoffs for that matter, but that's a breakdown by the entire team in my opinion....4 unanswered in a playoff game where you're leading by 3 ???
In the other game, tied 3-3 late with a couple chances for either team to score of course, but Ovechkin batted one out of the air with just over 1-minute remaining in the game to put Washington ahead 4-3, rather than going to overtime.Comment -
Wednesday May 2 - EAST Round 2, Game 3
UNDER 6 -102 TB@BOS // 4.08 units to win 4
Tampa doesn't have a great track record when playing in Boston. Perfect time for them to be better shoring up the center of the ice. Tukka will bounce back and have a better game. Also I think Boston played a bad game 2 so I'm not so sure they can just turn it on again against this opponent.Comment -
dammit shoulda used the logic about Boston bad game 2, to make the pick Tampa tonight
end first period TB leads 3-1....far from finished but looks good for TampaComment -
Wednesday May 2 - WEST Round 2, Game 4
SAN JOSE -0.5 +130 regulation win // 3 units to win 3.90
I still think this series goes to 7 games. Sharks pretty much would need to tie it up 2-2 tonight to make that happen, rather than being down 3-1 heading to Vegas for game 5. Rather than play the Sharks moneyline around -130, I'm turning that number into +plus odds, but they gotta win in regulation for me.Comment -
Locking one in for tomorrow (Thursday). Finished with picks for today.
Thursday May 3 - EAST Round 2, Game 4
OVERTIME +305 WSH@PITT // 2 units to win 6.10
Chase pick / Follow-thru from game 3.Comment -
May 2 & 3 results:
+4.00 UNDER 6 -102 TB@BOS ---> score 4-1 TB road win at BOS
+3.90 SAN JOSE -0.5 +130 regulation win ---> score 4-0 home win vs VGS
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-2.00 OVERTIME +305 WSH@PITT ----> score 3-1 PITT home win (Jake Guentzel empty net)
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May 2 & 3 = +5.90 units (W/L = 2-1)
PLAYOFFS TOTAL = -9.38 units (W/L = 13-21 = .382 pct)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PENDING ::
WEST SERIES ROUND 2
VEGAS +428 win exactly 4-3 games // 0.50 units to win 2.14
SAN JOSE +443 win exactly 4-2 games // 0.50 units to win 2.21
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Washington has it bad with Tom Wilson suspended for 3 games, he served the first one tonight for the illegal / unnecessary hit in game 3....plus, Malkin now back for Pittsburgh, kinda feels like they are being helped now to get thru this Round. Was a mistake to not add a pick on the Penguins tonight, but I was being conservative to see how it played out.....gotta pay to play to get paid !!!Comment -
Saturday May 5 - EAST Round 2, Game 5
OVERTIME +290 PITT@WSH // 2 units to win 5.80
Chase pick / Follow-thru...third time a charmComment
