Calmeat's NHL 2013-2014

[calmeat]

Well took Bos Reg and COL reg. Looking good so far so why not jinz myself by saying i did a 3 team parlay with BOS reg COL reg and STL reg as well !!! If your not gonna do it rumple i will

[mitch51]

You guys are funn in a good way and we should have taken TB and taken a chance Bishop would be the goalie...

Now for our bets 1u each:

TOR -115
TOR OVER 5.5 -120
PIT -130
PIT OVER 5.5 -120
MIN -110
CHI -105

GLTA


Ali & Mitch

[Rumplebeanskin]

Ugh, that was a horrible first period. Not inspired by the Kings here at all, they can't even get over the blue line and refuse to chip and chase.

Not gonna be a fun game to watch, and I don't think it's going to have a good ending

[Rumplebeanskin]

01-23-14
I don't mind those losses as much. If that same game came up, with those same circumstances again tonight, I'd bet it again, no problem.

The losses where you can't possibly fathom why your money was on someone, they are the ones that suck lol

This lol

LA are terrible, they can't score, serves me right here

[calmeat]

sorry took so long had some issues with system and had to make some fixes
Updated

[Rumplebeanskin]

Hmmmm, got beat yesterday. Terrible call to go anywhere near the Kings, still annoyed about that.

My BR is nearly done, might last me to the Olympic break but I doubt it. Have to decide what I should do once the season resumes. It's become increasingly apparent you can't make money doing this. Or if people can, I can't

So I either need to decide if it's a worthwhile expense to continue betting (and ultimately losing), so long as I am happy with the knowledge that it's not going to make me money, or if I'm just wasting money that I could spend on something else.

[calmeat]

Consensus
DET

[mitch51]

these stand out after crunching:

Det
WPG

but passing today.

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[Rumplebeanskin]

Managed to win my weekend's losses back taking a bet on the Superbowl I put on 5 bets in the playoffs and hit each one. Makes up for losing everything else I put on lol

After some analysis, I think I like the Sharks, Blue Jackets, and maybe a small look at Chicago and Anaheim. I'll wait to see the chart of course, goalies etc, but I'm thinking Sharks REG COL ML probably.

[calmeat]

Consensus
EDM
PIT
DET
ANA
CHI
SJS

[calmeat]

Managed to win my weekend's losses back taking a bet on the Superbowl I put on 5 bets in the playoffs and hit each one. Makes up for losing everything else I put on lol

After some analysis, I think I like the Sharks, Blue Jackets, and maybe a small look at Chicago and Anaheim. I'll wait to see the chart of course, goalies etc, but I'm thinking Sharks REG COL ML probably.

Glad you got some on the superbowl. Myself i did a small tease on SEA and the under which one. Then i did 10 prop bets including Will a safety be score. I ended up winning like 5 dollars from the prop bets. Oh well winning 5 is better then losing 5.

[Rumplebeanskin]

I did 5 different scorer plus winning team bets. Pretty much entirely involving running backs, that's just how playoff football is. Last night I hit Lynch scores any TD and Seahawks win at 5/2. Wish I'd put more on it

[mitch51]

@Calmeat
Does a goalie usually make a difference in your chartnumbers, %, etc? Because I thought that Giguere is goalie for CO not Varlamov.

Thanks
Ali

[mitch51]

Seattle...We were thinking of prop bets and then didn't. Nice guys.

After crunching numbers these games stand out:

EDM
PIT
VAN
CO
ANA
CHI
SJ
leaning on overs for ANA and PIT

Three have lines a bit high and two I question which way and down to:

VAN
CO


Now to decide.

Be back later.
Ali & Mitch

[calmeat]

yes Goalies do matter in this system. I will update it as soon as i can

[calmeat]

Updated

[mitch51]

Thanks Calmeat on the goalie info.


Betting 1u each on:

OVER 5.5 -125 PIT/OTT
VAN -105

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[mitch51]

uugggghhh

Tomorrow another day.

Ali & Mitch

[calmeat]

uugggghhh

Tomorrow another day.

Ali & Mitch

sorry for your losses. I took PIT ml so that won for me got one more tonight and i have a feeling it looses. SJS ML we will see how that goes.

[Rumplebeanskin]

Wow, great effort in the 3rd by the Sharks!!

CHI ML, COL ML, and CBJ ML all hit tho, got me a winning evening.

Sorry to see Vancouver lost

[Rumplebeanskin]

Canes, Flames, Stars, and maybe Bolts all get my interest tonight I think. Shall wait and see about numbers and starters though. Khudobin for the Canes and I might take the under, we shall see

[mitch51]

Wow, great effort in the 3rd by the Sharks!!

CHI ML, COL ML, and CBJ ML all hit tho, got me a winning evening.

Sorry to see Vancouver lost

Super, Mitch swept his 2 NBA games to my 2 NHL games sinking LOL.

[calmeat]

2/4/14
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 39-42 -$8
Silver($5.00) = 88-89 -$66.75
Bronze($2.50) = 83-71 +$5.40

Game Win %
ML= 440-331 57.07%
ML(Regulation)= 347-95 78.51%
O/U= 95-72 56.89%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 92-93 49.73%
55-59%= 121-83 59.31%
60-64= 111-81 57.81%
65-69%= 73-59 55.30%
70+%= 46-12 79.31%

Consensus 245-164 59.90%
CAR
BOS
WSH
TOR
STL
PHX

[mitch51]

Numbers crunched here is what stands out:

CAR
CO
BOS
WAS
TOR
MON
STL
MIN
DAL
Under 5.5 CO
Over 5.5 TOR
Under 5.5 DAL

With some having lines a bit high or not sure either way, these more so:

CAR
CO Under 5.5
WAS
TOR
TOR Over 5.5
MIN
DAL
DAL Under 5.5

Now to decide with Mitch

Be back later

Ali & Mitch

[mitch51]

Betting 1u on each

WAS -120
TOR -104
DAL UNder 5.5 -105

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[Rumplebeanskin]

Calgary, Florida and Dallas, all ML at £1 each. Winning night yesterday so I'm not holding out much hope for this one

[mitch51]

[mitch51]

Good Mornin'

After crunching the numbers I don't see any play.

GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[Rumplebeanskin]

Was just about to come and say the same. Penguins would have to be in REG or -1.5 as that line is too high. Other 2 games are a toss up. Could keep fading the ducks, but I reckon most likely it'll be a night off for me to

[mitch51]

Was just about to come and say the same. Penguins would have to be in REG or -1.5 as that line is too high. Other 2 games are a toss up. Could keep fading the ducks, but I reckon most likely it'll be a night off for me to

Congrats...You have made more progress on this thread then anyone else. You don't force games and the more you straight flat bet the more you make. The sportsbooks offer puck lines, regulation, run-lines in baseball, and parlays because they make a profit on all of them.

Ali & Mitch

[calmeat]

Consensus
PIT
SJS

[Rumplebeanskin]

Congrats...You have made more progress on this thread then anyone else. You don't force games and the more you straight flat bet the more you make. The sportsbooks offer puck lines, regulation, run-lines in baseball, and parlays because they make a profit on all of them.

Ali & Mitch

Awwww, now I feel all warm and fuzzy inside

I'm not making much money, but I've not blown it all yet either. When I look back at where I was when I started, it's been a fun evolution. Thanks for the advice and the patience, this thread has some great peeps in it!

I still very much realise that this is more a financial hobby, and isn't for money making purposes. Just hopefully I can get to a stage where I need to invest money less and less, and my BR gets me more and more entertainment as I progress.

[mitch51]

Awwww, now I feel all warm and fuzzy inside

I'm not making much money, but I've not blown it all yet either. When I look back at where I was when I started, it's been a fun evolution. Thanks for the advice and the patience, this thread has some great peeps in it!

I still very much realise that this is more a financial hobby, and isn't for money making purposes. Just hopefully I can get to a stage where I need to invest money less and less, and my BR gets me more and more entertainment as I progress.

Yes, very well said as we've learned too over time. We're waiting for to start. Also agree that this has been the best thread we have seen! Thanks Calmeat! for all your work.

[calmeat]

Yes, very well said as we've learned too over time. We're waiting for to start. Also agree that this has been the best thread we have seen! Thanks Calmeat! for all your work.

Hey guys no problem im just glad we have some good people in here. And Rumple I am in total agreement i have learned its very hard to actually make good money on gambling. I use this as a hobby and only play for entertainment, yes when i win of course i get excited then get greedy and up losing it. but i only bet what im ok with loosing so i never really stress out or anything.

As long as you understand no system or game is a lock or money maker and realize things dont always go to plan then its fun, frustrating, but fun all the same. Good luck to all and lets go Pens!!!! dont fn blow this lead now that i have posted it.

[jontebond]

Wow the penguins are just flying, this game has been great. Malkin and Crosby is obvious, against Buffalo to have great game, but
I really enjoy watching Gibbons and Zolnierczyk. I think they are really entertaining players. Gibbons speed is just crazy good.