Calmeat's NHL 2013-2014

[mitch51]

Running late, morning games like:

TB
TB OV

Be back later

Ali

Good game TB

Finishing up back later

[calmeat]

Updated
NSH game a no play.

[mitch51]

Here are the other afternoon games and some the lines are high:

PHI
MON
CAR
CLB
LA
ANA
CO
NJ
MIN
VAN

These:

ANA
ANA Under
LA
CO


GLTA

Ali & Mitch

[mitch51]

Updated
NSH game a no play.

Calmeat, why no goalie on Nash? I thought Dubnyk was confirmed?

Thanks

Ali

[calmeat]

Calmeat, why no goalie on Nash? I thought Dubnyk was confirmed?

Thanks

Ali

So Ali, the reason for the no play is its Dybnyk's first start for NSH so he has no stats built up with NSH. Since players can play differently with other teams we do not copy over his data from EDM. He is treated like a brand new goalie in his NHL debut. So that makes it a no play. Since he doesnt have stats with NSH that game errors out.

[mitch51]

So Ali, the reason for the no play is its Dybnyk's first start for NSH so he has no stats built up with NSH. Since players can play differently with other teams we do not copy over his data from EDM. He is treated like a brand new goalie in his NHL debut. So that makes it a no play. Since he doesnt have stats with NSH that game errors out.

Thanks, I wondered about that so I didn't bet it.

Ali

[calmeat]

alright both winners tonight !!! Thank you WPG and thank you CBJ

Since DEC i have now gotten my BR to 5x the original. Hope to get it to 10x by the MLB season.

[fataliz]

alright both winners tonight !!! Thank you WPG and thank you CBJ

Since DEC i have now gotten my BR to 5x the original. Hope to get it to 10x by the MLB season.

hi. can I check how did u get wpg pick? I'm guessing cbj is highest win% amongst consensus. and Wpg is odds highest. but isn't van odds even higher? thanks!

[calmeat]

hi. can I check how did u get wpg pick? I'm guessing cbj is highest win% amongst consensus. and Wpg is odds highest. but isn't van odds even higher? thanks!

For High odds games have to be between -140 and -195. VAN odds are too high.

[Rumplebeanskin]

alright both winners tonight !!! Thank you WPG and thank you CBJ

Since DEC i have now gotten my BR to 5x the original. Hope to get it to 10x by the MLB season.

Awesome! I've nearly doubled mine since I started using this on 26th December (despite going significantly higher at one stage, and betting on other things to, so I'm being clear). Last few days have been a crap fest though, so I'm going to dial it back and just do NHL on here, especially now the tennis is reaching the latter stages.

I had CBJ REG yesterday

[mitch51]

Mornin' all,

TB


GLTA


Ali & Mitch

[calmeat]

ah dammit, dailyfaceoff time for CHI game says 3. I guess it started at 1 dammit.!!!!!!!!

[calmeat]

Consensus
CHI

[mitch51]

ah dammit, dailyfaceoff time for CHI game says 3. I guess it started at 1 dammit.!!!!!!!!

Yepper, watching it on TV...

[supernicus]

whats the best pick for today

[jnsbanman]

Chicago was the play for both Consensus and high odds systems... 2 unit win for today.

[mitch51]

Mornin'

After crunching games, these are possible games but waiting on confirmed goalies and chart, etc.

PHI
BOS
STL
DAL
PHX OVER

The other games have lines too high.

Be back later

Ali & Mitch

[twestacott]

Mornin'

After crunching games, these are possible games but waiting on confirmed goalies and chart, etc.

PHI
BOS
STL
DAL
PHX OVER

The other games have lines too high.

Be back later

Ali & Mitch

Flyers game is already started. Boston/LA starts at 3PM

[jnsbanman]

Yea... missed noticing the early start today

[calmeat]

yeah missed that one. here is what the sheet said


for those who cant read that small pic PHI 54.72% game win%

[mitch51]

Flyers game is already started. Boston/LA starts at 3PM

Yep I knew but posted possible games anyway.

Thanks
Ali

[calmeat]

Here is the boston game



thats LAK with 51.26% for Game win %

[mitch51]

@Calmeat if it helps I always check game times night before so see if need up early.

I didn't have confirmed goalies on Bos so I didn't bet it.

OVER 5.5 PHX
DAL

GLTA


Ali & Mitch

[calmeat]

1/20/14
Value Plays
Gold($10.00) = 39-38 +$32
Silver($5.00) = 76-79 -$59
Bronze($2.50) = 71-61 +$.41

Game Win %
ML= 387-280 58.02%
ML(Regulation)= 304-84 78.35%
O/U= 84-69 54.90%

Game Win % breakdown
50-54%= 77-77 50%
55-59%= 105-71 59.66%
60-64= 95-68 58.28%
65-69%= 67-50 57.26%
70+%= 46-11 80.70%

Consensus 208-134 60.82%
PIT
STL
PHX
SJS

[Rumplebeanskin]

Not sure what to play tonight. Even REG for PIT and SJ aren't that appealing.

Maybe Blues? They're due a bounce back, probably. Maybe parlay SJ and PIT? Ah, idk

[mitch51]

Thanks Calmeat for all you do and posting the chart.

Ali & Mitch

[calmeat]

Not sure what to play tonight. Even REG for PIT and SJ aren't that appealing.

Maybe Blues? They're due a bounce back, probably. Maybe parlay SJ and PIT? Ah, idk

yeah one play i did was parlay pit and sjs both reg.

All my plays are in regulation right now. HighOdds will be ML though

[Rumplebeanskin]

That went well. First night getting back into it, 0-1

[calmeat]

Well not a good night not a terrible night.
Won SJSreg for both 70%(it was close enough) and SJS regulation Consensus.
Lost PIT regulation(AVG Lead)
Lost PHX (High Odds)
Lost PIT reg SJS reg parlay (it was a small one maybe 1% of BR)

[Rumplebeanskin]

Well, I'm an idiot lol

You boys said it would happen, I knew it would happen to, and it did happen. Chasing. No discipline. No patience.

So, I'm back where I was in late December, with about £25 to work with. To think as well, I got as high as £96. Touching distance of that £100 mark!!!

But I have genuinely learnt my lesson. A modern day renaissance man!

So, from now on I'll only be betting NHL, I'll never bet more than £5 in a 24 hour period, and I'll never parlay anything, at all. PARLAYS ARE THE WORK OF THE DEVIL. AND THEY GET ME EVERY TIME!!!!! Hmmm, I like this bet, and that bet, I'll put them together. That's not a bad payout! But, what if I just add in this other team? Ooooo, that's an even nicer payout! And this team to? And this one? THEN SOMEONE SCREWS ME AND I HAVE NO MONEY LEFT

I thank you all for your patience, and the hijacking of your thread with my rambling (again). I apologise that you all had to watch the inevitability of my crashing and subsequent burning, but hopefully this will just be the start of something far better, that doesn't involve significant stupidity on my part.

Thank you all

[RollinDo]

The Parlays I DON'T play turn to gold...the ones I do play cost me bigtime.
The last 3 I didn't play won...the last 2 I played lost.
Tonight's parlay I'm planning to play:

StL (+1) / Anaheim ML
1 unit to win 1 unit

[Rumplebeanskin]

NO MORE PARLAYS!!!!!!



lol

[mitch51]

NO MORE PARLAYS!!!!!!



lol

"Just straight betting and flat betting" in the article. Once in a blue moon we might take one.

Ali

[Rumplebeanskin]

Well, of course I realise I should have listened to you all nowwwwwww…...

[jnsbanman]

A very lucrative way to play this is a 2 game chase on each play... (Consensus, High Odds) Risk to win 1-3% of your bankroll per series.

If you take a 2 game loss then then next game (Game 3) risk to win back 1/2 of the total amount lost in the 2 game series. For example

Lets use -150 odds and $10 starting bet for ease.

Game 1 (Chase 1)risking 15 to win 10 (loss)
Game 2 (Chase 1)risking 37.5 to win 25 (loss)
Game 1 (Chase 2)risking 39.38 to win 26.25 (Win)

Being a 2 game chase we will suffer some losses, be ready for that (Do not do the full chase to the 3rd game). But winning back 50% of the loss after taking a loss helps keep the BR up... On occasion will will lose 3 games in a row... but in back-testing you will make it back on the 4th.

... and stay away from Parlays