Money line vs Spread??

**suicidekings** · 02-10-11, 01:52 AM

Originally posted by skjjb4

Does anyone play ML games instead of the Spread? If so is it really that profitable. I understand winning is profitable. Just looking for a opinion or two from everyone. I hate basketball and never had any real luck.
thanks in advance

For MLs, I'm comfortable playing them up to about -175 (correlating to a 4 point spread, wherein the game becomes a 2 possession win), and I can understand people playing them up to an equivalent 7 point spread (Call it ML -280) and a 3 possession win for the fave. Beyond that, the additional cost of the extra insurance just doesn't make any sense, and I feel like taking the points with the dog is a stronger play in many cases where taking the favourite of -7 or more is not appealing, or just not betting the game at all.

**xyz** · 02-10-11, 02:09 AM

If the play is +EV, then you bet it. It doesn't matter if it is on the spread or ML.

**juuso** · 02-10-11, 03:28 AM

Originally posted by xyz

If the play is +EV, then you bet it. It doesn't matter if it is on the spread or ML.

This. Also, there's no point setting artificial boundaries like betting only moneylines up to certain line. Value is value.

**alling** · 02-10-11, 08:00 AM

I never play ML with high juice. In if the juice is high -130 plus I play the runline. Only 25% games end in a 1 run margin.

**frankthetank** · 02-10-11, 08:08 AM

baseball, nothing but moneylines. some "line" games I play a moneyline when I suspect a "backdoor cover"

**andywend** · 02-10-11, 09:03 AM

[COLOR=#000000 !important]

[COLOR=#000000 !important]If the play is +EV, then you bet it. It doesn't matter if it is on the spread or ML.[/color]

An absolutely terrible response to the original posters question.[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important][/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]Assuming you're betting into a regular line as opposed to a stale line, theres no such thing as a +EV play.[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important][/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]No matter what the situation and no matter how much research and handicapping is put into a particular play, you're betting into a line that was analyzed by people who know far more than you do about the event in question. IN addition, on those rare instances where mistakes are made on the opening line, you have a pool of sharks that immediately jump on any lines they feel are off.[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important][/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]By the time you get around to betting the game, any possible +EV that might have existed is gone.[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important][/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]While a few offshore books like Cris and Greek open up lines very early, you have to overcome the -110 which means you have to pick 53% winners to break even.[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important][/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]No matter what anybody tells you, straight betting on sporting events is an absolute grind:[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important][/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]Lets assume you really know what you're doing and can pick 58% winners (58% is considered very close to the top of what anyone can possibly expect):[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important][/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]Lets say you bet $500 a game and make 1000 plays per year (this averages out to almost 3 a day).[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important][/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]You are able to pick 58% winners and win 580 games and lose 420. Once again, this is about the best any handicapper can ever hope to do.[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important][/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]You win $290,000 on the 580 wins and lose $231,000 on the 420 losses ($550 X 420).[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important][/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]This results in a $59,000 annual income but once again assumes you bet $500 per game and can win at a 58% clip.[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important][/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]If you know what you're doing and stick with bets like regular season win bets, division winners, live betting, betting on obscure events (props) where you find incredibly soft lines, its not too difficult to net $60,000 at years end.[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important][/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]To make a long story short:[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]There are far easier ways to make money sports betting than trying to grind it out betting pre-game the traditional way.[/color]

I'M NOT IN THE MOOD TO GO BACK THROUGH THIS POST AND REMOVE ALL OF THOSE DISGUSTING COLORS!!!!

SBR, FIX THIS DAMN BUG!!!!

**Cookie Monster** · 02-11-11, 12:46 AM

I have always liked moneylines the most. In low scoring sports (baseball, hockey) they are the main betting option. In high scoring sports (football, basketball) they are often second fiddle to spreads... but IMO they are slightly better. For starters, the vig is usually lower in moneylines. Then, you do not get hit by random backdoor covers. So, I do not see any reason to prefer the spread...