[reno cool]

Thats a good point. Except the one about getting a job.

[boxcar]

I think the OP and Ganchrow are in heated agreement - - which is similar to economists' criticism of Kelly, which was that maximizing long term growth isn't the end goal of every bettor, and thus Kelly isn't the be-all and end-all staking system.

The problem with the OP's comments, though -- and please take no offense -- is that he's kind of all over the place on what his goals are. On one hand, he criticizes Kelly because it gives gamblers "one wild ride," and isn't practical for gamblers who rely on a steady stream of winnings to survive. On the other hand, he says that the crazy bet of an entire bankroll on one craps throw was a smart move. In one case, his criticism is that Kelly is too aggressive; in the other, it's that it's too conservative.

If you need to be conservative and flat bet to insure a steady (but smaller) return, do it, that's where preferences come into play. But what even the critical economists couldn't dispute was that there's no better way to make as much money as possible from a gambling edge than Kelly.

[reno cool]

I guess I still have a problem with the final point. If you bet a larger amount than kelly suggests you will make more if you happen to run at a higher than predicted edge. In a realistic time frame this is of course very possible.
If you bet a smaller % you give yourself a higher chance of winning less (if you happen to run at less than .5 of expected edge). It seems to me a fair trade-off.
And thats why I feel the craps bet was in a similar way a trade-off.

After reading numerous posts, it appears that hardly any one here uses Kelly anyway. They use fractional Kelly (which is a lot closer to flat betting) or they don't use it at all.

[durito]

how is fractional kelly close to flat betting?

[reno cool]

My concern is mostly for those fairly new to gambling who may have come up with a good handicapping system or strategy. Winning for months and slowly growing a bankroll only to see 2/3 of it lost on an inevitable streak using Kelly could make some one kick himself or quit outright.

[reno cool]

how is fractional kelly close to flat betting?

your varying the size of your bets less. With a large bankroll, insignificantly so. And your making a smaller bet to begin with.