Most important baseball stat

[LT Profits]

Better wording would have been wrong to totally ignore. I agree with LT Profit in that recent play can be an important part of the picture. The quest is never ending and at the end of the day if it is all just random, maybe we can all have fun deluding ourselves.

Careful with the wording there, the gist of what I mean is that recent performance can be important in a contrarian way if the market overreacts to it.

[chunk]

Yes, thanks for clearing that up.

[Jackie Moon]

Careful with the wording there, the gist of what I mean is that recent performance can be important in a contrarian way if the market overreacts to it.

So you don't think any recent proformance matters unless the market reacts?

[Peregrine Stoop]

So you don't think any recent proformance matters unless the market reacts?

dice have no memory

[LT Profits]

So you don't think any recent proformance matters unless the market reacts?

Correct, and then you go against the recent numbers and with the YTD ones.

(assuming the market is eating up the recent form)

[TomG]

dice have no memory

but i thought god does not play dice?

anyway, if you use too recent stats you'll always end up backing the hot teams / fading the cold teams which is the opposite of value betting.

[Stocks]

Overall records
Home/away records
Last 10, Last 5 records

Runs scored and allowed home/away
Runs scored and allowed last 10, last 5

Injurys

Starting Pitcher - W/L, ERA, Whip, last 3, home/away, against team

Hitting verse lefty pitching
Hitting - home/way, recent

Bullpen - overall, home/way, recent
Bullpen - innings pitched recently

Game odds

No model invloved just look at the stats and pick who you think will win it's not as hard as some people around here make it seem. It also helps if you can read inbetween the lines on some stats as some stats are not what they seem.

Don't bet against a good home team at home.

Don't bet on a shitty team.

Don't bet on a bad road team on the road.

Don't bet against a hot team.

Don't bet on a cold team.

Don't bet unknowns

Try not to bet a lot of big favorites

Try not to lay a lot of chalk on road teams

Try to stay away from big dogs unless theres a very good reason to bet them don't bet them if you don't think they will win and just because the odds look good, if a team don't win it dosen't matter what the odds were.

Don't bet too many games bet 1 or 2 games per day with a max of 3.

Bet the same amount on every game - 4% is ok when betting very few games.

Do not chase

No extra bets like parleys

Bet at a book with dimelines or better

That's all I'm going to share as there's some stuff you have to keep to yourself but it's a good start.

[Peregrine Stoop]

disagree with so much in the last post that I don't know where to begin

[jgilmartin]

disagree with so much in the last post that I don't know where to begin

Agreed, but I'll try.

Stocks, suppose you "like" the Yankees in a matchup based on the criteria you listed. Do you play them at -150? -160? How do you decide at what price the bet is +EV and at what price it isn't, if you aren't estimating a win probability for each team? You wrote "no model invloved just look at the stats and pick who you think will win"; if you believed the Rangers had a 40% of winning (i.e. you didn't think they would win), would you bet them at +170?

[MYFOOTBALLGAME]

True that

[golfrulz]

some good info.

[Stocks]

Agreed, but I'll try.

Stocks, suppose you "like" the Yankees in a matchup based on the criteria you listed. Do you play them at -150? -160? How do you decide at what price the bet is +EV and at what price it isn't, if you aren't estimating a win probability for each team? You wrote "no model invloved just look at the stats and pick who you think will win"; if you believed the Rangers had a 40% of winning (i.e. you didn't think they would win), would you bet them at +170?

Maybe I didn't really explain myself enough but I added in the list of things to look at was the odds. I've been around long enough to know when I'm getting a price that I like for a game so I am estimatiing win probability I just don't have a model that I plug a bunch of numbers into and then it tells me who to bet.

If I'm betting the Yankees I'll weigh the odds verses how strong a chance I think they have of winning of course. I usually won't play anything over -150 in baseball and if I really really like a game with odds over that I'll consider betting them -1 or -1.5 but that does not happen very often for me to bet a team -1.5 everything has to line up.

Same when I'm betting dogs if I think the Rangers only got an ok chance of winning and the odds are +150 than I'll pass but if the odds are +175 than I'll bet them.

My thing with dogs is I'm not betting the Huston Astros ever I don't care what the odds are unless they make some kind of big turn around like the Twins did in early june I hopped on them failry quickly and rode for a while.

A lot of the don't bet rules are things I've added over the years to keep myself on track and disapline and away from things that get me in trouble.

[Thremp]

Stocks, you should be taking advice, not giving any. Your post was insanely terrible and belongs in Players Talk. If SBR cared about the quality of HTT, you'd be banned for posting nonsense.

[God1]

did that guy seriously just suggest betting run lines when money lines get over -150?

[Stocks]

Stocks, you should be taking advice, not giving any. Your post was insanely terrible and belongs in Players Talk. If SBR cared about the quality of HTT, you'd be banned for posting nonsense.

If people kept they're betting strategy simple instead of spending hundreds of hours trying to build a sucsessfull model and trying to beat the closing lines they would do a lot better. I've been betting for a long time and I can pick winners just as good as anyone on this site and thats all that counts, it don't matter how you do it.

[Stocks]

did that guy seriously just suggest betting run lines when money lines get over -150?

no I didn't

[God1]

no I didn't

o really?

I usually won't play anything over -150 in baseball and if I really really like a game with odds over that I'll consider betting them -1 or -1.5 but that does not happen very often for me to bet a team -1.5 everything has to line up.

[God1]

If people kept they're betting strategy simple instead of spending hundreds of hours trying to build a sucsessfull model and trying to beat the closing lines they would do a lot better. I've been betting for a long time and I can pick winners just as good as anyone on this site and thats all that counts, it don't matter how you do it.

I would go back to 2nd grade and master the english language first

[Jackie Moon]

Good effort though stocks...

[chunk]

Another one bites the dust.

[Stocks]

I would go back to 2nd grade and master the english language first

Why? Do good grammer and spelling help pick winners.

I'll take my bad spelling, bad grammer and apparently horrible, crappy I don't know what I'm talking about handicapping style, I'll take all that plus my 3-0 day today and my 49-32 record since june 8th I'd go back further but thats as far as my excel spreadsheet goes as I've recently added keeping detailed accurate records as one of my rules of betting.

The difference between me and you is I take in everything people have to say about handicapping instead of bashing because you just never know when you might read or hear something that will help you down the road.

[Justin7]

Stocks,

It is still a good idea to pay attention to your own grammar. People are less likely to take you seriously (or help you) if your grammar is poor (unless you're fluent in 2 non-English languages).

[illfuuptn]

If people kept they're betting strategy simple instead of spending hundreds of hours trying to build a sucsessfull model and trying to beat the closing lines they would do a lot better. I've been betting for a long time and I can pick winners just as good as anyone on this site and thats all that counts, it don't matter how you do it.

Stocks ftw lol
I like how he thought he was somehow getting the best of it with the runline but not on the YANKEES(of all teams) moneyline.

[Stocks]

Stocks,

It is still a good idea to pay attention to your own grammar. People are less likely to take you seriously (or help you) if your grammar is poor (unless you're fluent in 2 non-English languages).

I agree I should pay more attenion to my grammer

Also maybe I'll expand on some of the stuff I mentioned above and why I do it so people understand what I'm talking about.

Like the not betting over -150 thing. When betting baseball I don't like betting big favourites I'm just not going to lay big odds on a baseball game. The -150 is just a rough number sometimes I might bet a game -160 or -170 but I will not bet -190 or -200. So if it just happens there's a team that's around -200 and I really really like them I will look at betting them -1 or -1.5 instead. I don't think this is as controversial as some people here would make it seem.

Just looking at my excel spreadsheet which has my last 81 games I have 2 bets that I bet the -1 or -1.5 at lower odds instead of betting the moneyline at higher odds.

Boston Red Sox -1 -119
Boston Red Sox -1 -103

And as for betting big favourites in baseball checking my excel spreadsheet games the top 3 highest odds game I bet were.

Florida Marlins -141
Tampa Bay Ray -139
Chicago White Sox -138

As you can see I don't bet big favourites in baseball it's not my style. Actually I only have 2 bets with higher odds than those in all sports a -145 and -150 both in nascar so I'm not a big favourites guy in general when the odds start getting up around -150 on a game I usually consider betting it on a spread or not betting it at all.

Now the reason I put this in my baseball rules is because the way I handicap and most other people handicap which is by just looking at the stats for each game no model involved, it's easy to make the case for betting the favourite because that's usually the team the stats will point to as the better team but we all know betting big favourites probably not the best betting strategy so instead I usually look at small dogs or favourites and make the case for betting the game based off the stats. And also I very much consider the odds when making bets based on how much I like a certain game.

[TomG]

Laying grater than around -150 is not your style. And that's fine for you IMO. Recreational gambling *should be fun* and it's no fun to risk a lot to win a little. Keep in mind, however, that anytime you follow an arbitrary and fixed set of rules, you open yourself up to be exploited by bookmakers (game theory). If enough people also do this, it creates a market inefficiency that can then be exploited by others (thank you).

[infamousbacardi]

Pick the 3 games you think are the most likely to win, then bet against them. lol. Obviously a joke, but always remember the athletes are only unpredictable humans...just when you think you've found a sure bet, likely won't hit...I just try to find teams that make me FEEL like they are going to win....go w/ feeling, trust the gut. whatever

[illfuuptn]

Laying grater than around -150 is not your style. And that's fine for you IMO. Recreational gambling *should be fun* and it's no fun to risk a lot to win a little. Keep in mind, however, that anytime you follow an arbitrary and fixed set of rules, you open yourself up to be exploited by bookmakers (game theory). If enough people also do this, it creates a market inefficiency that can then be exploited by others (thank you).

This

Stocks, you must be super awesome lol. Way to go buddy-your ultra standard level 1 "Don't bet big favorites. Bet underdogs" strategy is sure to be a bookie buster. Keep up the greatness!

[HoulihansTX]

Final score

[wiffle]

baseball cant be measured with stats. its all about heart and clutchiness. just bet on the team that wants it more, but never bet more than 2% of your bankroll and dont listen to kelly kamikaze criterion

[illfuuptn]

^Hopefully a level. Otherwise "banned" is the appropriate term.

[evo34]

baseball cant be measured with stats. its all about heart and clutchiness. just bet on the team that wants it more, but never bet more than 2% of your bankroll and dont listen to kelly kamikaze criterion

Thank god people like you exist. You're a poster child for inefficient market theory.

[wiffle]

also martingaling works very good with gritty teams because they play harder after a loss or two

[illfuuptn]

^^^lol thanks for confirming the level

[Peregrine Stoop]

does stocks have a public record?

[Inspirited]

After tomorrow it will be safe to martingale the mariners.