[danperkins]

Article Number One:

Money Management.
By Dan Perkins December 9th 2007.


Becoming a better gambler and beginning to earn consistent profits all starts with one key concept, Money Management. Money Management has brought the demise to hundred of common bettors and even more professional bettors. Below are some common examples of bad management along with behavior to produce correct money management.

Don’t Expect To Get Rich Overnight.

The average professional sports bettor aims to have a winning percentage of 57% per 500 wagers. Only the top professional sports bettor’s are able to abide to wagering 1.1% of their bankroll on each wager during that stretch. The rule of 1.1% kills many regular bettors because they want to jump in and get rich quick. To be successful in sports gambling you must be willing to grow your bankroll gradually over a period of time. The best professional gamblers realize that their bankroll will only exceed its former peak 5% of the time they spend wagering. Many regular bettors expect their bankroll to grow each and every day. If you are one of many gamblers that occupy that mindset, sports gambling may not be the best fixation for you.

Don’t Use A Unit Scale Or Bet Altering System.

When you are altering your wager size by any amount you will increase your break even percentage from 52.38%. If you choose to play your wagers on a 1-10 unit rating scale your break even percentage jumps above 55%. After time the only wagers that will make you a winner are the larger ones, so why even bother betting the smaller plays?

**************************************** *******
The best professional gamblers realize that their bankroll will only exceed its former peak 5% of the days they spend wagering. Many regular bettors expect their bankroll to grow each and every day....
**************************************** *******

Don’t Become A Streak Bettor.

We have all heard the saying, “When your hot, your hot!” In gambling you should never use that approach to determine your bet size. Going 6-0 on Tuesday has no effect on what you will do on Wednesday and in turn should have no effect on the amount you wager. This same concept applies to a devastating cold streak. If you have not been able to pick a winner in 10 plays, you should not drop your wager size down. If you knew you were on a hot streak and would win your next wager, why not lay down ten times your normal wager? If you knew you were on a cold streak and would lose your next wager, why risk anything at all?

Results From Applying Correct Money Management.

By reading this article you are aware of the correct money management guidelines and the common displays of bad money management. It all sounds fine and dandy but how effective is money management? How much of a profit window is there by enforcing strict money management? Here is some math that will show you.

As stated above the average professional sports bettor aims to have a winning percentage of 57%. If you were able to hit at a 57% winning percentage over 500 bets your results would be,

~Betting 1.1% to win 1% on every wager.

285 Wins: +285%
215 Losses(x1.1%): -236.5%
Net Profit: 48.5%

Assuming your are betting $100 a game you will net profit $4850 per 500 bets. In order to place 500 wagers you will need to place 3 bets a day for 5.5 months. No one can live off of $4850 per 6 months, but from a return on investment point of view those results are off the charts. The average stock market returns roughly 6%-11% per year, correct money management in sports wagering will entitle you to a return rate of 48% per 6 months!
According to statistical websites the average working American earns $39,795 a year, or $19.15 an hour. (Monday to Friday working 9-5.) In order to be making $40,000 a year in sports wagering you will need to be wagering between $400-500 a game. This means your bankroll must be between $40,000 and $50,000. Even though it might seem like a long way until your bankroll is between $40,000 and 50,000 applying correct money management is your first step. Follow the previous guidelines and in no time will you start winning more games and getting better returns.

[durito]

Don’t Use A Unit Scale Or Bet Altering System.

When you are altering your wager size by any amount you will increase your break even percentage from 52.38%. If you choose to play your wagers on a 1-10 unit rating scale your break even percentage jumps above 55%. After time the only wagers that will make you a winner are the larger ones, so why even bother betting the smaller plays?

As I said in your other thread, this is ridiculous. It doesn't matter how many units you are risking, your break even pt at -110 is 52.38%.

[danperkins]

win loss
2 0
0 8.8
4 0
0 5.5
8 0
0 5.5
6 0
2 0
0 4.4
4 0
5 0
6 0
0 7.7
2 0
0 8.8
5 0
4 0
2 0
0 5.5
4 0
4 0
0 6.6
0 5.5
0 4.4
0 1.1

58 63.7

There is a 25 bet sample size. I know its small but you can multiply it by "x" amount to get a bigger size.

You would of went 14-11 in these 25 that is 56%, you are still not even. You would need to win a 5 unit play on your 26th bet to break even, putting your record to 15-11 or 57.6%.

If you went 1.1 to win 1 and hit 14 of 11 you would look like this,

win loss
1 0
1 0
1 0
0 1.1
1 0
0 1.1
0 1.1
1 0
0 1.1
0 1.1
1 0
0 1.1
0 1.1
1 0
1 0
0 1.1
0 1.1
1 0
1 0
1 0
1 0
1 0
0 1.1
1 0
0 1.1

14 12.1

You went 14-11 and made 1.9 units. 56% produced a profit and always will. If you went 13-12 and net -0.2 units you would lose on 52% becuase you require the additional .38% of a unit.

[durito]

You do understand that you just made those #'s up, right?

I can make some up too, that doesn't prove anything.

You need to take the advice given to you in the other thread and do some more research here before writing articles that contain many inaccuracy's. Search for posts started by Ganchrow.

[danperkins]

All I'm doing is just getting the point across that you can hit 60% betting random units from 1-10 and still not break even because only the 8, 9, 10 unit games matter. However, if you are betting 1.1% each game and you hit 53% you will make money every single time. I know I'm making up numbers but its getting the point across and is not inaccurate.

[donjuan]

I would advise taking a statistics class (or thoroughly reading a stats textbook) and understanding how to apply concepts presented in said class/book to gambling before even attempting to write a book on sports betting. I realize your intention is good, but all you are doing here is spreading mis-information. The following may seem harsh, but I feel it's the best way to get the point across:

The average professional sports bettor aims to have a winning percentage of 57% per 500 wagers.

Is this number plucked out of thin air? Firstly, you probably want to state the odds you are getting on such wagers. If you were betting exclusively -200 wagers, then 57% would be awful. If you were betting +200 exclusively while hitting 57% you would be doing absurdly well. Assuming you are talking about -110 ATS wagers, 57% is definitely on the high side (for major American sports with high limits). Think about why this is, assuming you are attempting to maximize profit and not just maximize winning percentage.

The best professional gamblers realize that their bankroll will only exceed its former peak 5% of the time they spend wagering.

Are you talking about being up at the end of each day here? If so, that is patently wrong, assuming you aren't making something like one +10000 bet every day.

When you are altering your wager size by any amount you will increase your break even percentage from 52.38%. If you choose to play your wagers on a 1-10 unit rating scale your break even percentage jumps above 55%. After time the only wagers that will make you a winner are the larger ones, so why even bother betting the smaller plays?

Your breakeven percentage isn't determined by how much you bet, but rather by the odds. To find the breakeven percentage on - MLs the formula would be -x/(100-x). For + MLs, 100/(x+100). However, the amount you should bet should vary based on your percentage.

We have all heard the saying, “When your hot, your hot!” In gambling you should never use that approach to determine your bet size. Going 6-0 on Tuesday has no effect on what you will do on Wednesday and in turn should have no effect on the amount you wager. This same concept applies to a devastating cold streak. If you have not been able to pick a winner in 10 plays, you should not drop your wager size down. If you knew you were on a hot streak and would win your next wager, why not lay down ten times your normal wager? If you knew you were on a cold streak and would lose your next wager, why risk anything at all?

The gist of this is fine in that streaks are meaningless. However, saying that you should not alter your bet size after winning or losing 10 in a row is wrong. It is not wrong because of being "hot" or anything silly like that, but rather because your bankroll has changed. Your bets should always be based on a percentage of your bankroll so after 10 losses in a row your bet size should have diminished.

[Thremp]

Read more, write less.

[Dark Horse]

There are two reasons to write.

1) for yourself, to develop greater clarity of thought.
2) for others, to share insight.

They're not the same. If you write for others, as you apparently set out to do, you should try to destroy everything you believe. Because only what is true is beyond destruction. (From that perspective, protecting one's beliefs is the most useless thing in the world.)

[20Four7]

It looks very similiar to this article by R.J. Miller.

http://professionalgambler.com/rjmiller1.htm

Taken from the above article.

Any time you vary your bet size by the slightest amount, you increase the breakeven percentage of 52.38. If you refigure your percentage after each bet, your breakeven jumps to over 55%. If you have 1 star and 5 star bets or bet twice as much on some plays, you should understand that only the large bets are meaningful to whether you will be a winner. You might as well not bet the smaller ones. In the end, they won't matter.

Also taken from that site:

That's right; - less than 5 percent of the time can we expect to set new all-time highs with our bankroll.

[Dark Horse]

It's almost a verbatim repetition of the belief system held by J.R. Miller. His book is useful, but there are far more useful books, and for the math part look no further than Ganch.

[The HG]

I would advise everyone on this G-ddamn forum to take a few statistics classes, a few economics classes, throw in a few psych classes while you're in there, also take a few intro Photoshop/Quark classes, and also take a few G-ddamn programming classes, not to mention would it kill you to take a few English classes? and also a little Latin might not be so bad either. And learn how to fukkin swim if you can't for chrissake, and also take a fukkin defensive driving class or two, ok? And I would also advise everyone to take a few math classes, and also a few damn history classes, U.S. AND European AND Easten Civ. Oh and also a few ethics classes, and also accounting.

[jjgold]

THE HG I need no classes and can get done any math stuff I want

Have you ever heard of 25 guys working for me??

[donjuan]

HG,

You are a tard.

jjgold,

You are a tard.

[The HG]

THE HG I need no classes and can get done any math stuff I want

Have you ever heard of 25 guys working for me??

jj you may have 25 guys working for you, but you definitely need to take at least some classes. Are you telling me you know how to swim?? BULLSH*T! Dude, there's no way you know how to swim, if someone threw you in the water, that would be one fukkin horror show, let me tell you, that would be one ugly scene, you know what I'm talking about. And I also strongly suspect you need some defensive driving classes, I wouldn't get in a car with you.

Statistics? I don't know, if you say you know that sh*t, then maybe you do, but I have my doubts. But I admit your mastery of English is fukkin beautiful though, you should be writing some fukkin textbooks on it, directing the evolution of the language into the new millennium. You should teach a class in fukkin 21st century youtube oratory.

HG,

You are a tard.

jjgold,

You are a tard.

donjuan don't be jealous. Don't hate, appreciate.

[Dark Horse]

I would advise everyone on this G-ddamn forum to take a few statistics classes, a few economics classes, throw in a few psych classes while you're in there, also take a few intro Photoshop/Quark classes, and also take a few G-ddamn programming classes, not to mention would it kill you to take a few English classes? and also a little Latin might not be so bad either. And learn how to fukkin swim if you can't for chrissake, and also take a fukkin defensive driving class or two, ok? And I would also advise everyone to take a few math classes, and also a few damn history classes, U.S. AND European AND Easten Civ. Oh and also a few ethics classes, and also accounting.

We really have to take every class you ever took?

Sh*t!

[pavyracer]

Article Number One:

Money Management.
By Dan Perkins December 9th 2007.


Becoming a better gambler and beginning to earn consistent profits all starts with one key concept, Money Management. Money Management has brought the demise to hundred of common bettors and even more professional bettors. Below are some common examples of bad management along with behavior to produce correct money management.

Don’t Expect To Get Rich Overnight.

The average professional sports bettor aims to have a winning percentage of 57% per 500 wagers. Only the top professional sports bettor’s are able to abide to wagering 1.1% of their bankroll on each wager during that stretch. The rule of 1.1% kills many regular bettors because they want to jump in and get rich quick. To be successful in sports gambling you must be willing to grow your bankroll gradually over a period of time. The best professional gamblers realize that their bankroll will only exceed its former peak 5% of the time they spend wagering. Many regular bettors expect their bankroll to grow each and every day. If you are one of many gamblers that occupy that mindset, sports gambling may not be the best fixation for you.

Don’t Use A Unit Scale Or Bet Altering System.

When you are altering your wager size by any amount you will increase your break even percentage from 52.38%. If you choose to play your wagers on a 1-10 unit rating scale your break even percentage jumps above 55%. After time the only wagers that will make you a winner are the larger ones, so why even bother betting the smaller plays?

**************************************** *******
The best professional gamblers realize that their bankroll will only exceed its former peak 5% of the days they spend wagering. Many regular bettors expect their bankroll to grow each and every day....
**************************************** *******

Don’t Become A Streak Bettor.

We have all heard the saying, “When your hot, your hot!” In gambling you should never use that approach to determine your bet size. Going 6-0 on Tuesday has no effect on what you will do on Wednesday and in turn should have no effect on the amount you wager. This same concept applies to a devastating cold streak. If you have not been able to pick a winner in 10 plays, you should not drop your wager size down. If you knew you were on a hot streak and would win your next wager, why not lay down ten times your normal wager? If you knew you were on a cold streak and would lose your next wager, why risk anything at all?

Results From Applying Correct Money Management.

By reading this article you are aware of the correct money management guidelines and the common displays of bad money management. It all sounds fine and dandy but how effective is money management? How much of a profit window is there by enforcing strict money management? Here is some math that will show you.

As stated above the average professional sports bettor aims to have a winning percentage of 57%. If you were able to hit at a 57% winning percentage over 500 bets your results would be,

~Betting 1.1% to win 1% on every wager.

285 Wins: +285%
215 Losses(x1.1%): -236.5%
Net Profit: 48.5%

Assuming your are betting $100 a game you will net profit $4850 per 500 bets. In order to place 500 wagers you will need to place 3 bets a day for 5.5 months. No one can live off of $4850 per 6 months, but from a return on investment point of view those results are off the charts. The average stock market returns roughly 6%-11% per year, correct money management in sports wagering will entitle you to a return rate of 48% per 6 months!
According to statistical websites the average working American earns $39,795 a year, or $19.15 an hour. (Monday to Friday working 9-5.) In order to be making $40,000 a year in sports wagering you will need to be wagering between $400-500 a game. This means your bankroll must be between $40,000 and $50,000. Even though it might seem like a long way until your bankroll is between $40,000 and 50,000 applying correct money management is your first step. Follow the previous guidelines and in no time will you start winning more games and getting better returns.

This is a very good read for newbies.

[Blax0r]

Random observation: Although this article that has a money management topic and attempts to spell out a couple numerical examples, it doesn't reference or even follow the kelly criterion (donjuan's last note essentially). Probably the first time I've encountered this.

[tomcowley]

This is a very good read for idiots.

It's almost completely wrong.

[mathdotcom]

This reminds me, I forgot I have a system for beating roulette. Off to the casino now.

[DevilCheese]

Best article I've ever read, will read it to my grand children some day. Thank you for bumping this.

[uva3021]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Set

[Sawyer]

Nice article.

[Sawyer]

Don’t Use A Unit Scale Or Bet Altering System.

When you are altering your wager size by any amount you will increase your break even percentage from 52.38%. If you choose to play your wagers on a 1-10 unit rating scale your break even percentage jumps above 55%. After time the only wagers that will make you a winner are the larger ones, so why even bother betting the smaller plays?

Very True. Specially Touts' sick-unit-scale system is hillarious. They release 20* Unit Play, then they release Special Exclusive Play Of The Week *35 Units, then they send Monster Play Of The Month *100 Units. Then you realize they release 3-4 GOM play every month, LoL.

[Saab]

does that 1-10 unit size versus necessary winning percentage ratio change if you can very accurately describe your edge? For example, if you have a model that says a certain play has a 54.2% edge, cant you adjust wagers based on that ability to measure the edge? Just kinda curious, ive always stuck to flat betting.

[Flying Dutchman]

THE HG I need no classes and can get done any math stuff I want

Have you ever heard of 25 guys working for me??

Jesus, we've got JJ posting in the Tank!!!! The world is about to end!!!

...wait a minute,

...that was posted back in 2007.

...world is still here.

never mind.

[solring]

The world is about to end!!!

Nope...that won't occur for two more years on 21 Dec 2012...