Hi, all, I'm new to the site but I'm excited to get to know you. Thanks for taking the time to read this.
Here's my question: let's assume a hockey player averages a goal every 20 minutes of ice time. Let's further assume he'll get 20 minutes of ice time tonight. What's the percentage chance that he'll score tonight?
All I can figure out is that it must be less than 50%, because SOMETIMES he must score multiple times in 20 minute stretches, which would then require more than an equal amount of empty 20 minute stretches to get him to his average, but I can't get my brain around what the proper discount below 50% should be.
Thanks in advance for any help you might be able to provide!