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I wasn t talking about you, but never mind. you dont have any right to call me like that. i didnt ask for anything and nobody "was feeding" me with infos and tips and i didnt ask for it either. but if some guy askes you something you should tell him and solve his problem.but no..you like to make it like it is a big deal. and yeah cause of that you are clown buddy.Originally Posted by Duff85
How does this prove that Pinnacle had it at 1.80 at the same time? I can check http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/eur...senal-1453466/ and see that Olympiakos was offered at 2.75 at some point, this does not mean that there was value. The odds moved to reflect the fact that Arsenal announced they will be fielding a large number of reserves.Yes, yes and yes. I was able to bet 1200€. I got the betting ticket in my betting history if anyone is interested, (mail) To believe or to not believe is up to you. It was even 2,20 at some cyprus books btw. If something is not available in your town, it doesn't mean it doesn't exist in other part of the world.
Check out the date/time
-End of discussion-
Last edited by shari91; 12-08-12 at 06:29 AM. Reason: pic removed at poster request
Confirmed. Good job sir. Sorry for doubting you. I hope it was not an arb and you cashed it all
Check out the date/time
-End of discussion-
I wonder how that bookmaker survives if they are so slow at moving their lines. Or were they really begging for action on that side?
Do they limit? Do they pay?
Last edited by shari91; 12-08-12 at 06:29 AM. Reason: pic removed at poster request
Do they limit? Hell, YES! So fast.
Do they pay? Yes..actually it depends on bookie. I stay away from books with bad reputation.
Guys, bookmaking is a very profitable business. So even people who don't have a deep knowledge in sports, get into it. Believe me, in my betting career, I saw sportsbooks offering same odds for odd/even in hockey (and OT is included!), same odd/even odds for baseball (simply suicide), adjusting ML odds but keeping the spread same, adjusting odds wrong on key numbers in NFL (such as 6.5 to 7 or 7 to 7.5. You know odds change dramatically between key numbers. Oddsmakers simply don't know these are key numbers), offering same odds for underdog ML (NBA) and underdog to win quarter..Yes, seriously. Can you believe it? For example, Miami is 1.30 and New York is 3.75. New york to win first quater is 3.75. New york to win 2nd quarter is 3.75 again and yes New York to win 3rd quarter is 3.75 again, lol. As you can guess, they corrected their mistake few years ago..probably after losing lots of cash!
So how these books stay in business? Easy answer: Betting public is stupid. Many of them, are not even aware of these mistakes. They still keep betting on favourites, making 8-teamer mega parlays. No money management. They win some, then lose it all. This is how even these books stay in business.
A good example of how the public is dumb - is teasers. These are ultra exploitable and have been for years and years and yet they are also one of the most profitable options for the books because people misplay them.
nice move and nice play.everybody can learn from this example,including myself. keep up the good work.
Check out the date/time
-End of discussion-
The betting public is not stupid. People are only stupid when it's free. When they spend their money they're not stupid at all and you can find this out by examining the efficiency of the betting markets. It doesn't matter if some recreational bettors bet improperly (the amounts they bet are so small that they don't really care), what matters is if the line on offer is accurate. And it is.
You have provided no indication at all in this thread that you are any sharper than the average bettor. Betting a small amount on an obviously severely outdated line on an unknown and possibly unreliable bookmaker in Turkey is not evidence of sharpness. You are coming across as a smug kid.
There is absolutely no evidence that the public's preference for favorites (if indeed such a preference exists) causes an exploitable bias in the market. In fact, most betting markets are biased in the opposite way (i.e. the strongest favorites you back, the less you lose).
Books don't stay in business because people bet stupidly. They stay in business the same way a casino does, because of the juice.This is how even these books stay in business.
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Also, the best way to avoid being limited is to make bets on outdated lines and then post screenshots of them on an internet forum that the industry regularly monitors. Congratulations on being placed on the black list of every book in existence.
HUYsuz,
You have absolutely no idea about how sports betting and bookmaking works. I advise you to educate yourself about these subjects. You don't have any idea about mediterranean people either..but worst of all, you don't have any idea about who you are talking to
Do you know how many online sportsbooks opened in this area in last 2 years? Let's narrow it a little bit by limiting books who are offering service to Turkey. Over 50..in just 2 years..and it keeps growing up!
Now, even people who had no idea about how sports betting works opens up a book. Why? Because there's too many fish around.
Books stay in business because of juice, that's right but believe me, even if there was a book here, giving service to mediterranean people like greeks and turks with no juice (Yes, I'm talking about EVEN / EVEN Lines here) still that book would be up. Why? Because majority of bettors are stupid. They're so emotional. No money management, going tilt after 3-4 lose in a row, putting the same game on every parlay, going all-in on big games..IT ISN'T STUPIDITY?
About public and favourites,
First of all, I like to thank you for giving me such a great laugh, I was about to fell of my chair, hahaha. There's no evidence that the public's preference for favourites?! Are you fukkin' kidding me? Are you serious? Do you ever go out?
Just go to a bookie shop and take a look to people's parlay tickets. I guarantee you that you will see popular teams like BARCELONA, REAL MADRID, BAYERN MUNICH on every parlay.
You're really new to sports betting I guess and I wasted my precious 12 minutes by writing this post. Now get lost and don't waste my time. I have more important things to do, this is saturday.
Sawyer your post was spot on about stupidity in sports betting but I think it only applies for these countries (Europe) where soccer is the main betting sport. The most common thing I see in shops in my country is 13 teams accumulators (parlays) with 3way soccer money line picks and as you said at least half of those are the big names of Europe: Man Utd, Barca, Real M, Bayern etc... These guys don't even care of the odds they are taking. Some shops could have better odds, but they wouldn't even notice. They also go on tilt quite easy and bet the house on 3 team parlays with, yes you guessed it, 3 of the top European teams.
I believe that in US, the sports betting world is different though.
Mostly true, but parlays are a massive part of books profit and that fits nicely under people betting stupidly. One of the key differences between a smart punter and a recreational punter is singles v parlays.
Why?
See Ganchrows thread for the explanation on expected return of -EV parlays, explains it much better than I could. Leads to over-staking too on later legs. It was a statement of observed behaviour, successful large staking punters tend to bet singles, primarily because difficult to find two +EV plays at the same time presumably as often they are working an angle that the bookie has over-looked. Books % returns on singles will tend to be lower than the book % and more like 20% on parlays.
You can try all these little tricks and disguises to keep your account open, but at the end of the day, to beat the book you have to beat the book.
You can't disguise winning and you can't disguise withdrawals. End of thread.
BAUS
This is definetely true. Huy need to check Vegas books' profit reports but he is too lazy, lol.
Believe me, You can. Just like a Serial Killer (Dexter?) leaves no trace..but you have to masterize it. Not easy! When you don't know it, it looks impossible I know. But when you have it, it's possible.
Last edited by Sawyer; 12-08-12 at 06:27 PM.
You dumb motherfukking useless piece of human dogsh*t
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seriously mathy, wtf??
It's true that the public prefers betting on favorites over underdogs.
i think betting on favorites is nice strategy
There isn't a formula to avoid being limited. If you just bet ML and Big Leagues, probably your big limits will last long, but if you know what you are doing, they will catch you, no matter what.
Sure there is. Bet -EV.
So stupid that this thread has turned into a pissing match between the egos.
Yes - but winning in short term does not make someone a sharp. There is a huge luck factor involved in sports betting. So if you win by betting NFL full games, you will almost never get limited. There are ways to make the book think that you are just getting lucky.
As of how to do it. Best way in my opinion is to find a popular line that is different at two books of yours. For example NFL total at 53 at one book, and 54 at another. Bet Over on 53, and under on 54. Usually you will lose the juice, sometimes you win a full unit. But it makes you look like a square.
How does that look square exactly? I'm sure they don't appreciate you picking off-market lines
We're in different leagues mathy so I ignore your post(s), lol. Worthless posts like these are unnecessary in this forum. I like to interact with more "civilized" people not caveman guys like you. And if it's you who is in avatar, you are really ugly, lol. I'm feeling very lucky; hopefully I'm not a douchebag like you.
Square: A person who bets Oklahoma-Miami-Houston-Chelsea Parlay (All Moneyline!) yesterday, lol.
There's no luck factor involved in sports betting OVER THE LONG HAUL. Sure, Luck has an effect over everything in life; luck may effect outcome of one pick you bet but over the long haul, luck factor is NEUTRALIZED. A person cannot lose forever because he is unlucky or somebody can't win Hilton Super Contest two times in a row because he is lucky.
Luck has an effect over small-sized samples but luck factor is minimized over the long haul.
No, you won't lose because the juice always. You can find very good middles like -110 and +112 or -108 and +109. I was able to bet Efes Pilsen -5 at -110 and Pana +5.5 at +112 and Kolin -9.5 -110 & Opava +11 @ +116 today.As of how to do it. Best way in my opinion is to find a popular line that is different at two books of yours. For example NFL total at 53 at one book, and 54 at another. Bet Over on 53, and under on 54. Usually you will lose the juice, sometimes you win a full unit. But it makes you look like a square.
Last edited by Sawyer; 01-03-13 at 05:34 PM.
Betting major games like NFL games makes you look square. Also lines don't need to be off market for two books to have slightly different lines.
I agree on the betting Major games.
Sorry, the way you described it was as betting off market lines to me. A surefire way to get flagged. Guess not what you meant, gl
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