1. #1
    joegavazzi
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    CFB Analysis Week 2

    Thursday, September 9th
    Central Michigan @Temple (-8) 7:00 PM EST ESPNU
    At the close of last year, perennial MAC champ CMU would have been the road fav in this match up. The linemaker got it right though by swinging the Owls, the favorite in this year’s MAC race, to the chalk. This consistently improving Owl team is on a 21-10 ATS run L3Y under HC Golden. Vet team returns 80% LM, 90+% yards, and features an athletic defense and strong running game. Squeezing by city rival Villanova in the opener will have them very focused. The Chips were solid in a 33-0 win over Hampton with a 427-129 edge in yards. But taking to the road with new coach, new QB, and only 5 returning starters on defense implies a far greater challenge.
    Auburn (-2) @ Mississippi State 7:45 PM EST ESPN
    Lots of respect for 2nd year HC Mullen who unleashed his explosive attack for a 49-7 opening week win vs. outmanned Memphis, outgaining the Tigers 569-237. This challenge is far greater. In a series that has seen the favorite cover 13/18, Auburn stands 6-2 ATS. Jumbo QB Cam Newton (Florida transfer) racked up 357 yards in 52-26 cruise vs. Ark State in which they outrushed the Red Wolf 367-43. Reminiscent of LY’s game vs. the Bulldogs, a 49-24 victory in which Auburn ran for 390 yards.
    Friday, September 10th
    West Virginia (-13) @ Marshall 7:00 PM EST ESPN
    Mounties have dominated this series for the Governor’s Cup going 9-0 SU by 33 PPG average margin. WVU was tough in their 1st game, a 31-0 win vs. CC. They outgained CC 400-186 using a balanced attack, spreading the ball to their waterbug skill players. Meanwhile, Marshall was overwhelmed from “jump” in a 45-7 decapitation at Columbus (outgained 529-199). To Week 1 momentum players (please read my blog this site), this looks like a roast. Yet it would be shocking if nice guy Bill Stewart (please read my blog this site) ran up the score against his former assistant coach Doc Holliday. Holliday would be 1st in line to replace Stewart at his Alma Mater, a probable occurrence if the Herd pulled this upset. Extra preptime a meaningful edge for Rivalry home dog against Stewart who is 2-10 ATS as fav.
    UTEP @ Houston (19-) 10:15 PM EST ESPN
    Miners pulled the shocking upset as +14 LY, 58-41. That’s 3 straight ATS wins in series for a team who has a 6-2 ATS record as +10+ RD. Expect another high scoring shoot out between a pair of veteran offenses led by experienced signal callers Vittatoe and Keenum. Over compensation by LM for preseason hype on the Cougars, plus the public’s reaction, has forced this line a full 7 points higher than it would have been at the close of LY. See value with the Big Dog with plenty of potential back door ability.
    Saturday, September 11th
    Georgia Tech (-14) @ Kansas 12:00 PM EST FSN
    In an article I penned earlier this week, I made it clear that handicapping CFB in Week 2 was more than just blindly following dichotomous momentum from Week 1. I assure you the linemaker is far from an idiot, witness his performance in Week 1 in which over 80% of the 78 games (including extra games) fell within 14 points of the opening line and the average AFP was under 10 ppg. This contest would be a prime example of such an error on the part of the public, for the linemaker has fully compensated for the Week 1 discrepancies while the public has added to that misconception. Before you pull the trigger on Tech, consider the fact that Kansas would have been favored here by 20 points 2 years ago, by 3 points at the start of last year, and would have been only an 8 point underdog in Week 1. Win or lose, please resist the temptation to blindly follow all the technicals and fundamentals that clearly point to the favorite in this one. Consider Kansas to be the Lone Ranger’s Game of the Week because you’ll be the only one to join him if you can pull the “trigger” on the contrary Jay Hawk this week.
    Georgia @ South Carolina (-3) 12:00 PM EST ESPN2
    Quite a turnaround in experience levels for these two who are now among the most veteran teams in the SEC after being at the opposite end of the spectrum LY. History and technicals point to the Bulldogs in this as HC Richt is 33-6 SU away, 9-3 ATS RD and has captured 7/8 in series. However, Gamecock triplets of emerging QB Garcia plus RB Lattimore and WR Sanders are a notable edge vs. 1st year Georgia QB Murray making his 1st road start, possibly without suspended WR Green and RB Ealy. Two extra prep days and the superior defense are other meaningful edges for the ‘Cocks.
    Hawaii @ Army (-3) 12:00 PM EST CBCS
    Yes, everyone is appraised that this is 6:00 AM body time for the visitor. Put that out of your memory bank. The Rainbows normal practice time is 7:00 AM. Plus, they’ve arrived 3 days early to acclimate to the 6 hour time difference. Army’s opening week, 31-27 victory over EMU was an underperformance, yet hidden by the victory. Home field advantage is overrated based on the Cadets 7-16 ATS mark at Michie. Warrior’s opening day loss to USC last Thursday (2 extra body prep days) was significant in the fact they gained 588 yards vs. a top notch defense. Eastern threw only 9 passes vs. Army last week. Hawaii threw 49 (for 459 yards) against USC. Balanced by their new “pistol” offense means the outright dog win no surprise to this bureau.
    San Jose State @ Wisconsin (-38) 12:00 PM EST ESPN
    Caveat emptor. This is a warning for all of you who are buying in on the Badger to route San Jose. Yes, we know, the Spartans haven’t been this bad since they fought with swords. They are on a 1-17 ATS slide, 0-9 ATS away, 0-3 ATS as +30+, allowed 8.3 YPP and 6.3 YPR to Alabama last week. Badgers have 16 RS and a ground game that could totally maul Jose. But where is their motivation following an opening trip to Vegas and a match up with Arizona State next week. This one way too obvious for my taste.
    South Florida @ Florida (-15) 12:20 PM EST
    Gators 34-12 opening victory vs. Miami (OH) not only made a lot of money for the bookmakers but was far from indicative of how the game was played. Yardage was even at 212 apiece. They were out first downed 16-12, had 5 mishandled snaps, and were life and death through the better part of three quarters against a 2-10 SU Red Hawk team. Your thoughts should immediately turn to departed OC Mullen and QB Tebow. Among other issues are lack of overall experience and a reshuffled OL. The Bulls didn’t miss a beat under 1st year Coach Holtz the 59-14 opening week win showed them gaining 563 yards. With an OL that returns intact and explosive QB Daniels along with a fierce front 7, this is a live rivalry dog who can take the Gators to the limit. Holtz is known for his success in this role, posting a 23-9 ATS dog log in his career.
    LSU (-9-) @ Vanderbilt 7:00 PM EST ESPNU
    It’s become abundantly clear that the combination of the linemaker over pricing LSU and the inability of HC Miles to get the most from his talent has led to the Tigers being consistently over valued in recent years. They are now on a 10-24 ATS slide including 0-5 ATS RF. Vandy broke through with a home ATS win for new HC Caldwell following an 0-8 ATS slide on this field. No longer were they the stodgy Coms of old. Greatly improved QB Smith opened the offense with 33 PA in outrushing and outpassing a decent NW team in a 21-23 loss but cover. LW’s LSU debacle against injured NC can only leave their confidence shaken. All reasons to keep away from LSU as potential double digit road favorite.
    Iowa State @ Iowa (-13-) 3:30 PM EST ABC
    Series anomaly LY when Iowa won 35-3 in Ames courtesy of 6 Cyclone turnovers. Prior to that, State had covered 8/9 in the series and 6 straight at this site. They have 2 extra days of rest in role of double digit rivalry dog, with revenge, after a solid 27-10 opening win vs. NIU in which they outgained the Huskies 403-249. This dove tails nicely with overpriced HC Ferentz who again put his Hawkeyes in cruise control in an opening week 37-7 win, no cover, to drop his record to 6-13 ATS as favorite. Live rivalry double digit dog.
    Colorado @ California (-9-) 3:30 PM EST FOX
    Bears defense LY was abysmal. That could well be exposed against a Colorado team who showed offensive potential in 24-3 rout of rival Col State. More impressive was the Buff’s defense who limited the Rams to only 49 RY. Should that unit step up once again, it would put pressure on overrated Cal QB Riley. However, Cal’s 52-3 ATS win was for real with a 517-81 yardage edge, vs. UC Davis. Bears could also want to send future message to Buffs who will soon be joining their ranks. Cal 5-1 ATS home vs. non-cons while Col is 5-13 ATS vs. non-con BCS foes.
    Florida State @ Oklahoma (-8) 3:30 PM EST ABC
    Sooners continue to have something to prove following Week 1 escape vs. USU, a 31-24 win (as -34) in which they allowed 421 yards (341 PY). Florida State was far more impressive in new HC Fisher’s opening game, a 59-6 victory. Behind QB Ponder and a veteran OL , they should find more than enough motivation to equal that of the Sooners. Oklahoma’s defensive edge not enough to prevent this from going to the wire.
    Michigan @ Notre Dame (-4) 3:30 PM EST NBC
    This is one of those games where the series history is so obvious that it prevents the casual handicapper from digging deeper into the fundamentals. Everyone knows this is a 12-2 ATS, 5-1 ATS underdog series. And it was plain for all to see how quality coaches Rodriquez and Kelly have great potential to lead their teams from the nadir of their discontent. Clearly, the Michigan performance (a 5% top play winner for us LW) was more impressive behind QB Robinson who amassed 383 total yards and led the Wolves to a 287-138 RY advantage. Now in the 3rd year of the Rodriquez era, feel there is greater pointspread upside to Michigan TY who will thrive as one of our “Boom” teams in 2010. Underdog series history just a bonus.
    Kent State @ Boston College (-17) 3:30 PM EST ESPNU
    LY BC led 34-0 in an eventual 34-7 cruise at this site. That was a repeat of the ’08 game the 21-0 BC win in Cleveland. Again, expect the smashmouth BC defense, led by return of LB Herzlich to dominate the overmatched Kent offense. Home site has been a fortress for the Eagles who are on runs of 16-8 ATS and 8-2 ATS as HF. With a bye next week, expect full focus from the Eagles who have dominated this and other MAC opponents.
    Miami (FL) @ Ohio State (-9) 3:40 PM EST ESPN
    Behind QB Pryor, there is no doubt the Buckeyes are on a roll. They are 42-21 ATS L5Y on a 15-4 ATS run MRT and cruised to a 45-7 opening week win vs. outmanned Marshall. But don’t expect the Hurricanes to be intimidated. Miami QB Harris can equal Pryor’s athleticism while Miami has loads of speed and talent across the board. With a bye next week, this is clearly the game Miami has been pointing toward since the start of the season. Underdog now stands 28-12 ATS in Miami games. They are capable of taking this to the final gun.
    BYU @ Air Force (P) 4:00 PM EST Versus
    If you’ve read my “Boom or Bust” ATS report in College Football, you know that Air Force is due for their comeuppance. Highly respected 4th year HC Calhoun has been on a run that is due to even out. Under his guidance, the Fly Boys are 24-14 ATS as a result of +45 net TOs L3Y. In 2009 alone, they were +22 net TOs with a + 102 AFP. This began to even out last week when the linemaker overpriced them as -48 in a 65-21 win (no cover) vs. outmanned NW State. Despite having to retool their entire offensive line, the Fly Boys still racked up 437 yards on 61 carries. They held true to their preseason promise of more passing with a whopping 179 yards in only 12 attempts. That all changes today against a BYU team that answered every question in their opening week 23-17 home victory vs. vastly experienced PAC 10 foe, Washington. Both QB Heaps and QB Nelson passed for 131 yards. They have the potential to be more explosive than that in Week 2 against an AFA secondary that was banged up LW. Equally impressive was the Cougars ability to balance the attack through the airways with a decent running game. In the 80’s and 90’s, when BYU was coached by Lavelle Edwards, we couldn’t wait for this game as Edwards knew exactly how to shut down the Fly Boys flexbone. We recorded many big victories with BYU in this series. Just such has been the case in recent years behind BYU HC Mendenhall carrying over the defensive success he had when at New Mexico. He is now 6-0 SU, ATS vs. AFA all by 14+ with an average cover of 12 PPG. Is this the top of our ticket or are there 2 games that are even stronger than this which will be Top Play winners for us this Saturday. Call 1-800-678-7529 for your winners!
    UNLV @ Utah (-23) 4:00 PM EST MTN
    Utah’s 27-24 victory over Top 20 Pitt more impressive than the final score. They outgained the Panthers 405-266 and were dominant in both phases of the game. With 2 extra days to prepare on a field where they’ve won 19 straight, they should be ready for a top effort vs. this conference rival. QB Wynn was as good as advertised and the running game went for 4.5 YPR against the vaunted Pit defensive front 7. Those facts, however, are not the big surprise in this game. UNLV, under new headman Hauck, played with more passion and intensity than recent Rebel entities. This is a very experienced Rebel team who underperformed with the previous coaching regime at 3-8 ATS LY. If that intensity carries over to today’s performance, they have plenty of potential to do no worse than come through the backdoor.
    Oregon (-12½ ) @ Tennessee 7:00 PM EST ESPN2
    What a difference a week makes. LW Oregon was cruising as a top play winner for this bureau, 72-0, in the comfy confines of Eugene. One week later, they are 3 time zones east, playing a night game in front of 100,000+ fans at a hostile SEC environment. You’ll clearly be paying significant more for the price of Duck this week. They are the more experienced team with huge offensive potential. Yet the Vols, following the missteps that were the Fulmer/Kiffin eras, rebounded smartly in Week 1 for 1st year HC Dooley. The 50-0 whitewash of Martin was accompanied by a balanced 537-142 yardage edge. Yet, that did little to answer questions about the inexperienced OL and signal caller spot. Ducks may have their own issue in that regard as this is the first road game for QB Thomas.
    Wyoming @ Texas (-29) 7:00 PM EST FOX
    With Texas Tech on deck and an underperforming 1st week effort against Rice, one finds it hard to back a Texas team that may take a while to jell offensively as the OL adjusts to a more robust ground attack and QB Gilbert blends with his receivers. But the overwhelming factor in this handicap must be the Cowboys response to the single car auto accident that took the life of one of their team members and injured 3 others. Figure out that response and you’ll probably have your ATS winner.
    Louisiana Tech @ Texas A & M (-19) 7:00 PM EST
    If you are following Game 1 momentum in this Game 2 matchup, you’ll be paying the price. Then again, it may just be worth it. New LA Tech HC Dykes brings his spread offense to Ruston. Week 1 results were not positive as they defeated lowly Grambling by only 20-6, with yardage to match. Clearly, it will take Dyke some time. That is far from true with the explosive Aggie offense that erupted for a 48-7 victory over SFA with a 539-266 edge. Rebuilding Aggies OL may struggle vs. B12 foes but not against the not yet for prime time Tech defense. Aggies now 7-1 ATS home L2Y with 4 wins LY of 25+.
    Toledo @ Ohio (-7) 7:00 PM EST
    Well aware that Toledo’s egg vs. Arizona (41-2, outgained 518-183) was against a quality PAC 10 foe. But 2nd year HC Beckman is openly claiming that his minions have a long way to go. HC Solich is in his 6th year with far better talent and cohesion. They are on overall runs of 27-16 ATS, 20-11 ATS home vs. con including recent runs of 9-2 ATS con and 6-1 ATS HF. Dual QB attack for Bobcats in transfer Bates and former injured starter Boo Jackson implies OU extends lead throughout vs. young, rebuilding foe.
    Penn State @ Alabama (-11½ ) 7:00 PM EST ESPN
    Nick Saban has been saying the “right thing” in early week press conferences about the respect he professes for the Paterno lead Lions and the offensive and defensive systems into which Paterno slots his young athletes. Without RB Ingram and DE Dareus, it would appear the Lions might be “live” at the price. They have covered 9/12 recent road games. Though everyone is saying positive things about true freshman QB Bolden, a positive performance against Y State does not prepare him for Tuscaloosa. Alabama reloaded defense appears the equal of LY while Penn State’s lack of experience on that side of the ball could be quickly exposed.
    NC State @ Central Florida (-3½) 7:30 PM EST CBSC
    Knights clearly will be sky high for this shot at an ACC foe in Bright House Stadium. They hold vast edges in returning experience particularly on the defensive side of the ball. But NC State HC O’Brien knows that victories like this are essential if he is to get to the winning side of the ledger. As one of our ATS “Bust” teams, we will not be often backing the Wolfpack. But with O’Brien’s 20-10 ATS dog log and QB Wilson tossing to an experienced wide receiver group, the mini upset would come as no surprise to this bureau.
    San Diego State (-13) @ New Mexico State 8:00 PM EST
    Aggies had the worst offense in the country in 2009 averaging just 11 PPG. Playing in their 1st game of the year with their 3rd new offensive system in 3 years does not imply confidence. New OC Dunbar hopes to add a passing presence with JC QB Christian making his 1st start. Aztecs at least a year ahead in Hoke’s 2nd season with an offense that will be SDS most explosive in years. Remember, it was just 2 years ago that Hoke led Ball State to a 12-0 SU season. Game 1 results played to expectations in a 47-0 win with SDS showing a 531-171 edge over outmanned Nicholls State. 2nd year under DC Long, who is well acquainted with the Aggies, should also be a banner season for the Aztecs, who are one of my “Boom” teams in 2010.
    Texas Tech (-24) @ New Mexico 8:00 PM EST MTN
    Tough to suit up on either side here as TTRR is caught on a short week between home games with SMU and next week vs. Texas. Tuberville’s history is to ease up with a big lead. Witness the Ponies prancing through the back door for us as anticipated LW. But can you really consider a Lobo team who lost 72-0 being outgained 720-107. Look for the “sale” sign on the house of HC Locksley in Albuquerque.
    Mississippi (-20½) @ Tulane 9:00 PM ESPN2
    Fortunately, this game is being played indoors as there may be another hurricane blowing through New Orleans this week. That would be the Ole Miss Rebels who could blow out the Green Wave after an embarrassing home loss to Jax State in game 1. Leading 31-10 at the half, they lost 49-48 in OT. Meanwhile, Tulane was life and death with SELA being outgained 266-262 in a 27-21 home win. Little home edge for the Green Wave these days who are 1-9 ATS at this site, 5-15 ATS HD and 3-13 ATS MRT. Don’t think they’ve hit bottom yet. Expect far more from QB Masoli now that Week 1 distractions of eligibility have been resolved. Value remains due to last week’s upset loss.
    Stanford (-6) vs. UCLA 10:30 PM EST ESPN
    The Cardinal replaced RB Gerhart to run for 213 yards while QB Luck tossed for 317 in a 52-17 smashing of Sac State. Half way across the country, the Bruins were losing late to K State’s overland attack in which they were outrushed 313-193. Bruin offense could muster just 313 yards in their 1st week of the “pistol” with injuries to both their OL and QB Prince. Those results provide some excellent line value in a home/road dichotomy that has seen UCLA go 27-10 ATS at home while Stanford, under Harbaugh, is 6-10 ATS away.
    Colorado State @ Nevada (-23) 10:30 PM EST ESPNU
    No home field in America has been more dominate than that of the Wolfpack. Since Ault’s return, they are 19-4 ATS as HF. Behind QB Kaepernick, they did major damage once again in ringing up 49 points on a balanced 553 yards against E Wash. Col State would not appear to be capable of attacking the soft underbelly known as Nevada’s pass defense. Freshman QB Thomas could lead the Rams to just 245 yards, tossing 3 picks,in a 24-3 loss to Colorado. It dropped State’s recent record to 0-10 SU, 0-7 ATS.
    USC (-19½) vs. Virginia 10:30 PM EST FSN
    Looks like wrong place, wrong time for 1st year Virginia HC London who comes off an opening game rivalry win vs. Richmond and now must travel across 3 time zones to face an embarrassed Trojan. Playing for the 1st time under HC Kiffin, Troy allowed Hawaii to pass for 459 yards and score 36 points. What do you say to your dad if he’s the DC? Be assured the ship will be righted in Kiffin’s home opener against a Virginia team who must bear the brunt of the Trojan’s ire.
    Florida Atlantic vs. Michigan State 12:00 PM EST ESPNU (Detroit, Mich)
    Florida Atlantic was a surprise winner with a come-back victory at UAB, 32-31, as +13. It was especially shocking considering they were outrushed 345-93. That part, however, was expected since the FAU OL was completely replaced. That victory raised Howie’s record to 2-14 ATS away vs. NC. Now traveling north, it appears that Owl QB VanKamp could be “live” at the price in spite of Howe’s record. But Spartan’s athletic front 7 will be far less gracious than that of UAB. In their 38-14 domination of Western, they outrushed the Broncos 297-85. Clear issue surfaces with the Irish next week, a look ahead situation that has seen the Spartans go just 1-9 ATS.
    LA Monroe @ Arkansas (-34) 7:00 PM EST FSN
    Ouch! 1st year HC Berry figures to improve little over LY performance. They have among the worst offenses and defenses in the nation. They now must play their 1st game of the year with only 10 returning starters having graduated 5 all con defenders. Ark HC Petrino seldom shows mercy as indicated by his record of 27-12 as -10+. Hogs 1st game rout was a 44-3 victory vs. outmanned Tenn Tech in which they outgained them 519-188. QB Mallett was 21/24 before retiring. Petrino has stated he’s looking for defensive dominance in these opening games. Caveat is Georgia and ‘Bama the next 2 weeks for Hogs.
    Troy @ Oklahoma State (-13) 7:00 PM EST
    Neither of these teams has much experience, both with under 10 returning starters. State showed the transition should be much easier than Troy. Trojans did have a dominant and balanced 475-229 edge over visiting BG but could just escape with a 30-27 victory. Now a young Troy team must take to the road to face a Cowboy team who showed they may not miss a beat (at least vs. this level of competition) in their opening day 65-17 romp of Wash State. The 544-334 edge showed the usual Cowboy balance of 291 RY/253 PY. Early stars of the new air-raid offense were QB Weeden and RB Hunter who returned to his form of 2008 with 257 RY. HC Gundy, known for his dominance in this price range, witness his 21-9 ATS record as double digit favorite.
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  2. #2
    msj0001
    msj0001's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    Good write-ups and research

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