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Several games this week are way off. These arent the marquee games either and i personally think the wrong teams are favored and/or the spread is low single digits as it should be double digits instead. Im at work but will give my analysis later today. Some of these players in one these games i've had personal experience of knowing as they lived in Maryland and played against me in the I-95 All star game.
Last edited by Eric22174; 11-18-13 at 04:33 PM.
Duke -5.5 - I have absolutely no idea how this line is less than a TD. Wake Forest has scored a total of 3 points the last two weeks with Camp out at the WR position. Camp has been the backbone of this Wake Forest offense for the last 3-4 years hence why he has 1/2 of Tanner Prices passing yards this year and targets. Duke has been improving and it's ability to move the ball the last few weeks has been beyond impressive. The use of the Dual QB system has proven to really accommodate the run game. If anyone watched the Duke vs Miami game they could see that this line is way off. I capped this game with a 42-17 final when I saw this game. I find no reason to believe unless Duke gets drunk the night before that they remotely come close to losing this game. Wake Forest is horrible on offense. I played football with Camp and I know what he brings to the table. This kid was the only thing Wake Forest had the entire year.
Louisville -24.5 - Now I know what you're thinking….."Louisville doesn't cover large spreads"….Well if you take notice they have covered large spreads this year in select scenarios at home. This being one of them against a team that has absolutely no offense whatsoever to counteract what the Louisville offense will do to Memphis. The Memphis passing game is almost as poor as it gets. The QB play is quite possibly one of the worst in the country. You take that on the road against one of the top 5 defenses in the country this game is going to be an absolute blowout. 45-10 Louisville and that's being generous.
Vanderbilt +3 - Vandy has won 11 straight games in the month of November dating back to 2011. Vandy has been playing some great football under Franklin. Taking into consideration that rumors are swirling that Franklin could be interviewed for many of the TOP jobs in the country this offseason I think there is extra motivation to win in this spot. And that's besides the point that Franklin wants a decent bowl game.
Stanford -31.5 - This spread should be 40. Teams that are favored by 31.5 points and close at pinnacle at 31.5 are 5-0 this year. Unless i'm missing something the University of Cal has to be one of the biggest jokes in all of college football on defense. They're dead last in passing defense and 3rd from the bottom in total defense. That being only above Idaho who is a 56 point dog this week and New Mexico State.
Last edited by Eric22174; 11-18-13 at 04:42 PM.
Louisville is a loser ATS. They are 3-5-1 ATS this season. They have no chance of going to a BCS Game and they know it. As bad as Memphis is, they still have a shot at a Bowl game. They finish the season with the two worst teams in a terrible AAC, Temple and UConn. They have also won their last two games S/U. Does this mean that Memphis wins this game. No, but it does mean that they will give a much bigger effort than Louisville, who is pretty much locked into the Russell Athletic Bowl.
Vandy +3 is a dangerous play. Everyone knows that Vandy is most likely headed to the Liberty Bowl. Here is the deal. Tennessee must win out to qualify for a Bowl Game. They are also 4-1 S/U in their last 5 games against Vandy at home. Tennessee is coming off their bye week. I really hope that Vandy wins, but i sure would not wager on it.
I agree with Stanford, but Stanford has a habit of just going along and doing enough to win. Cal has a terrbile defense, but can score a few points. Stanford know's it has little, if any chance at a BCS game, so how will they react?
I also do not understand the Duke line. The line is up to 6 at a few shops in Vegas, so I would grab this uickly before it really goes up.
All good points. But when you're a team like Memphis who strives on the run game that's not something that really succeeds against a good passing team. You already know Bridgewater is going to get his points. But when you're down 21 points you have no choice but go to the pass. Once Memphis goes to the pass they're done. Turnovers will lead to Td's. Florida State has covered high spreads the last few weeks "partially" apart of the defense and it's ability to create turnovers and i see the same thing happening here.Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH
I'm just not convinced on Tenn. They may have a lot to play for but you're only laying 3 points at home? Again i'm going off what they have strictly done in conference play and Vandy has 3 wins to Tennessee's 1. Maybe a good bet in a teaser with Duke. Duke +1 and Vandy +9
Last edited by Eric22174; 11-18-13 at 05:08 PM.
Vandy did beat Tennessee last year 41-18 at home but still are you that much better? Some would say they're and I think that's partially true under Butch Jones. But you can throw out all the records when it comes to a rivalry.
Updated record to date 51-27 ATS. Units to be recorded starting this week per SBR posters wanting proof of profit.
Last edited by Eric22174; 11-18-13 at 05:59 PM.
Hell I said I wouldn't do it but i'm convinced after looking at last years box score that Toledo held a 14-7 lead before allowing 21 points in the 3rd quarter. They can rally the troops here and win this game. Toledo has beaten at least one BCS-AQ school in 6 of the last 7 years.
Pick - Toledo ML for 2units, 200$ to win 230$
http://espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=323192459
Last edited by Eric22174; 11-20-13 at 06:48 PM.
Lets go Rockets! Thank you NIU kicker
I think you got screwed there by not considering that NIU absolutely wrecks teams in the 2nd half this year ... most recently last week when they were struggling hard and then made the game look like a blowout by the end when it was actually much closer.
Live and learn though. Toledo went away from the run game the second NIU went up by more than one score. Not smart given how much time was left and how they were owning the line of scrimmage.
Yeah I pretty much wasted two units is what it looks like when you see the box score. All in all it's something you learn from. These MAC games are always 50/50. Had I played last night I would have won Kent State but that one i did not play. Got a long weekend to make some coin.
Record is 51-28. This week -2 units. Looking to get back on track tonight.
2 team parlay. 1u to win 240$
Air Force -2.5 - The Rebels only have one previous victory at Air Force, which came in 2001. Other than that game, UNLV is 0-7 in Colorado Springs.That’s not too shocking considering UNLV’s overall lack of success through the years, especially on the road. Coming into this season UNLV had lost 22 straight road games.
Rice Under 63.5 - UAB is playing awful on offense. Considering Rice plays decent defense I think this number is inflated. I can see UAB keeping this game on the ground for the most part. I remember one game this year they rushed the ball the entire first half and never attempted one throw.
Closing Over/Under Game Count Record Over % Under % Push % Average Score 63.5 31 11-20-0 35.5% 64.5% 0.0% 57.77
Last edited by Eric22174; 11-21-13 at 06:19 PM.
Adding Rutgers +17.5 for 1u - Turmoil has surrounded this Rutgers team for the last couple of weeks both on and off the field. The Knights have been blown out in their last two AAC losses but they match up much better against UCF. Rutgers will keep it close for a bit but at this point in the season, things are not clicking well enough to win. There is a chance that UCF blows out Rutgers but I see a back door cover here. Brandon Coleman is due for a big game. UCF 31 Rutgers 17.
Last edited by Eric22174; 11-21-13 at 06:22 PM.
Record falls to 51-31. -4 units for the week. Went 0-3 last night. Not seeing the games well the last two nights. Over thinking this shiiizzzzzzz.
Ready for a big weekend! Let's get itttt
I don't have the time for a write up but here are my plays
Bowling Green -24.5 for 3u
Louisville -23 for 2u
Duke -5.5 for 4u
Florida State Under 69 for 1u
Arkansas ML -101 for 2u
Arizona State -2.5 for 5u - Best bet
That's all my plays. Wish I had sometime to write something up but i'm headed out to get some beer.
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Cashed Duke for 4u
Louisville has to be one of the worst 9-1 teams of all-time. Bridgewater is going to suck in the NFL. I hope NFL scouts are watching this brittle piece of garbage. The guy looks like a grandma running out there with that half ass jog of his. So with that said i'm +2 units on the days because Louisville didn't cash. Bowling Green looks good to cash. Would be nice to have Arkansas ML cash as well.
No need to bash him, shame on us for allowing them to burn us againCashed Duke for 4u
Louisville has to be one of the worst 9-1 teams of all-time. Bridgewater is going to suck in the NFL. I hope NFL scouts are watching this brittle piece of garbage. The guy looks like a grandma running out there with that half ass jog of his. So with that said i'm +2 units on the days because Louisville didn't cash. Bowling Green looks good to cash. Would be nice to have Arkansas ML cash as well.
True True. I put another 3 units on Arizona State and I added Ole Miss ML for 3u
Clack,
I got a nice parlay ticket that's still alive. If it cashes i'll post it.
Check ur message box E
Hope everyone had a good thanksgiving. Record on the year 54-31. Since tracking my plays i'm +8u. Had Texas -4.5 last night but lost the Steelers ML to come in today with -2u.
Todays plays:
Marshall -3 for 2u - Marshall has the better pass defense and I think that's the difference here. I see this line as high as 4 at some books but the money still resides with East Carolina. I like Cato as a QB and I like that Marshall is at home.
San Jose State +8.5 for 2u - from Game Ten out during the regular season heading in to this year.
Best Dogs: Arizona 11-1, Boston College 7-1, Memphis 7-1, San Jose State 6-0, Virginia Tech 6-1 and West Virginia 9-1.
If I thought Fresno State had one ounce of defense in them this game I would back Fresno but I see shootout in the game.
BEST BET: Toledo -8 for 8u - Akron is horrible. They are 1-6 as a home underdog in there last 7 games played. Toledo is going to dismantle Akron.
Last edited by Eric22174; 11-29-13 at 09:20 AM.
Eric,
San Jose st up to +10. What do you think?
Also Toledo -11. Should I stay away here now in case of backdoor TD that cuts lead from 17 down to 10 lol
San Jose state even better at 10 in my opinion. Fale's is a good QB. Giving a team like San Jose State who can move the ball 10pts is a gift. Fresno State isn't strong against the pass and Chandler Jones will have a huge day.
I have Toledo winning this game 42-21
Great start by Toledo 7-0. Should be 14-0 already but they are just going up and down the field on Akron to start this off.
Lets go Marshall…...
Just where did you get Toledo -8? The line is -10.5 to 11.5 at every Vegas Book and off shore book. That plus your post about letting us know what plays you made if your Parlay hits indicates that you are a fraud. I do not want to hear about when you got your lines, because that is also a fraud. You posted this today, so those are the odds you must play. You have some explaining to do. You conviently forget too many losers and come up with too many phantom lines.
Your an ass. Get the penetrate off my thread. You troll everyone threads talking non-sense. Your dumb ass said Vandy wouldn't win last week and they did. You claimed Stanford wouldn't cover and they did. Your the dumb penetrate here. I'm not even minding your dumb ass opinion. And if you must know Pinnacle had it at -8 early this morning and it opened at -7.5 . I don't have to explain myself to u low life.
Last edited by Eric22174; 11-29-13 at 12:50 PM.
Here you go you uneducated piece of shit.
PINNACLESPORTS LINE MOVEMENTS
Money Line Spread Total 1st Half 2nd Half Date Time Fav Dog Fav Dog Over Under Fav Dog Fav Dog 11/24 5:14pm TOLEDO-7.5 -106 AKR+7.5 -106 11/25 9:18am TOLEDO-300 AKR+258 TOLEDO-7.5 -106 AKR+7.5 -106 11/26 11:49am TOLEDO-300 AKR+258 TOLEDO-7.5 -117 AKR+7.5 +104 11/26 7:18pm TOLEDO-310 AKR+266 TOLEDO-7.5 -106 AKR+7.5 -106 11/27 5:09am TOLEDO-310 AKR+266 TOLEDO-7.5 +101 AKR+7.5 -114 11/27 8:57am TOLEDO-310 AKR+266 TOLEDO-7.5 +101 AKR+7.5 -114 55.5 -106 55.5 -106 11/27 12:51pm TOLEDO-275 AKR+238 TOLEDO-7 -107 AKR+7 -105 56.0 -106 56.0 -106 11/27 12:53pm TOLEDO-275 AKR+238 TOLEDO-7 -113 AKR+7 +101 56.0 -106 56.0 -106 11/27 6:12pm TOLEDO-275 AKR+238 TOLEDO-7 -118 AKR+7 +105 56.0 -106 56.0 -106 11/28 9:08am TOLEDO-275 AKR+238 TOLEDO-7 -110 AKR+7 -102 56.0 -106 56.0 -106 11/28 1:45pm TOLEDO-289 AKR+249 TOLEDO-7 -110 AKR+7 -102 56.0 -106 56.0 -106 11/28 4:46pm TOLEDO-315 AKR+270 TOLEDO-7.5 -106 AKR+7.5 -106 56.0 -106 56.0 -106 11/29 1:37am TOLEDO-315 AKR+270 TOLEDO-7.5 -112 AKR+7.5 +100 56.0 -106 56.0 -106 11/29 3:18am TOLEDO-315 AKR+270 TOLEDO-7.5 -116 AKR+7.5 +103 56.0 -106 56.0 -106 11/29 8:16am TOLEDO-315 AKR+270 TOLEDO-8 -111 AKR+8 -101 56.0 -106 56.0 -106 11/29 8:41am TOLEDO-315 AKR+270 TOLEDO-8 -111 AKR+8 -101 56.0 -106 56.0 -106 TOLEDO-4.5 AKR+4.5
Shew took a big hit losing Toledo today. Cashed Marshall. -8u on the week so far with San Jose left to go.
Get off Eric he's been giving us lines for a while and if u'r getting his lines don't take the game
It's all good Clack. 2-1 yesterday but still -4 units on the week after gaining half the roll back with San Jose and Marshall. Bringing the record to 56-32 ATS.
My plays:
North Carolina -5.5, and North Carolina ML for 2u each - My opinion might be a bit skewed after watching Carolina put up 80 points in three quarters, albeit against Old Dominion. Bottom line is the Heels have made dramatic improvements on defense in the second half of the season and they've found playmakers in Ryan Switzer and TJ Logan to go along with Quinshad Davis and Eric Ebron. I continue to be impressed with what David Cutcliffe has done with that program - but I'm taking Carolina by a touchdown in a relatively high-scoring game. There is not one person on Duke's defense that can stop Ebron.
Arizona +12 for 3u - The underdog in Arizona Wildcats football games is 22-2 ATS from “Game 10” out during the regular season. Need I say more?
Louisiana Lafayette -14.5 for 2u-Currently the line is -14.5 at Pinnacle. This year when the line closes at -14.5 at Pinnacle the record is 7-1. Monitor that line closely as game time approaches. If it hits -15 the record is 1-4
Georgia Tech +3 for 3u - Georgia QB Aaron Murray is done after suffering a torn ACL against Kentucky. Hutson Mason, a redshirt junior, will take his place to break a string of 52 consecutive starts by Murray. Mason was 13-of-19 for 189 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT's vs. the Wildcats. Still this game isn't Georgia's to win whatsoever.
NC State ML for 3u - Even though the Wolfpack has lost six of their seven ACC games by 10 points or more, I think they knock off Maryland on Saturday. This is Maryland’s final ACC game, as a move to the Big Ten is in order next season. The Terrapins are dealing with a plethora of injuries on both sides of the ball and rank 11th in the ACC in total offense.
Have a great Saturday. No best bet's today as i'm 1-2 with those plays. To be honest i'm not trying to be arrogant but i wouldn't be surprised if i won all these today.
Last edited by Eric22174; 11-30-13 at 07:04 AM.
I hate to ask for a game you didn't post but a friend of my really wants to take aurbun today, what does ur system say about tht game
I don't see Auburn keeping up with Alabama in this game. Auburn's going to have a tough time running the zone read. No quarterback has gained more than 22 yards on zone-read rushes against the Tide. Overall, Alabama’s opponents have averaged 3.6 yards per rush and have one rushing touchdown on 78 zone-read plays.
Under. Alabama's defense is the SEC's best in several key categories, including scores allowed within the Tide's 20-yard line. Opponents are scoring just 60 percent of the time in the red zone. Auburn is second-stingiest, at 73.7 percent. The Tigers offense has scored on a league-best 42 of 48 red zone trips (87.5 percent), including 33 touchdowns.
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