Originally Posted by
Eric22174
Going to lock these picks in now. I usually wait until the day of but i'm liking what i'm getting at this point. Record is currently at 46-22 ATS. Seems to have caught myself in a pretty bad area with my Buffalo pick earlier this week. But took the split with Bowling Green.
Here are my plays for Saturday:
Duke +3.5 - The Blue Devils’ last victory came in 1976 against Miami and only one out of the last six meetings has been decided by a touchdown. Duke’s defense has stepped up at key moments this year, scoring two touchdowns in the second half to beat NC State last week, while the last four opponents have been held to 22 points or less each game. The Blue Devils need another inspired effort on defense this week, as Miami is the best offense Duke has played this year. In last week’s loss against Virginia Tech, Miami rushed for only 28 yards on 24 attempts. With Duke Johnson sidelined, Dallas Crawford and Gus Edwards have to shoulder the workload in the backfield against a Duke defense allowing 191 rushing yards per game in conference play. BUT it’s not a typical week in the ACC if there isn’t at least one shocker. The main reason for this pick, though? Duke has an honest-to-goodness belief it can win. The Blue Devils went on the road and beat Virginia Tech. There’s no reason they can’t beat an average Miami team at home if they play smart, disciplined, mistake-free football. Sure, Miami has more “athletes,” but right now, Duke has the better defense and all of the momentum it needs for its second upset of the season.
Rutgers PK - Paul James coming back off injury for Rutgers is going to be a huge boost for this team. This is going to be a drag it out defensive ball game. But i'll back the home team as I think Paul James makes the difference in this ball game. Stats below when James is in the line up. Huge part of this Rutgers offensive ground game. 6 Td's in four games.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/518349/paul-james
Kansas +7 - Kansas played OU tough at home last month and trailed Texas only 14-6 deep into the third quarter two weeks ago. The 27-game conference losing streak has to end at some point. The combination of a West Virginia hangover and Cozart at quarterback finally ends it.
Kansas State -10.5 - f the season started over today, where would you pick the Wildcats to finish in the conference? Second? Third? No worse than fourth. Outside Baylor, K-State is playing as well as anyone in the league and has the look of a team poised to close out the regular season with a six-game winning streak. TCU had a nice reprieve from a miserable year with a gutty fourth-quarter victory at Iowa State last week. But the hobbled Horned Frogs are headed straight into a Bill Snyder buzz saw.
Mississippi State +24 and Illinois +34 - This is confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, undefeated college football teams playing on the regular season road from “Game 10” on out are 99-34-1 SU and 57-67-2 ATS. Hence, these teams tend to suffer their first loss of the season nearly one-third of the time. A warning signal has been sounded for Alabama and Ohio State this week.
Pair them up against an under the radar opponent who won 8 or fewer games last season and watch them immediately play down to the level of the opposition as they dip to 6-21 ATS. Bring these same guys in off a win of 20 or more points and they have a difficult time getting their head through the door, going just 3-19 ATS.
Both the Crimson Tide and the Buckeyes look to meet their financial maker this week