Pags' Plays 10/33

[ToneLoc88]

[QUOTE=pags11;2388106]ToneLoc88,

at the current number I would have a slight lean to Washington, but my good friend gyno has a big play on ASU at 3 and he knows the Pac 10 way better than me...that all being said, I'd recommend a no play...

Thanks for the input and the great work. Loving the Utah State pick. Let's repeat last week!

[pags11]

Cougar Bait,
...I'm amazed as well...
Flaghunter,
...that's what I'm talking about!

taurus,
...let's keep it rollin'!...
xyzky,
...yeah I'll be there from about 5 to 7 tonight if you want to stop by...

MickChunky,

smack,

...I wouldn't be interested in playing Pitt tonight, especially at 5.5, but I don't think Rutgers is that much of a live dog either with their QB and secondary issues...no play is my recommendation...

Mr Handicapable,

...no way in heck I'd lay the points with La. Tech this week and I can understand your reasoning with NMSU...it's not a game that was on my radar but I agree with the logic...GL

saltwatercowboy,

lb49ers,

morrow,
...maybe you will buy into SMU after tomorrow...

[pags11]

ToneLoc88,
...that's what I'm talking about!

[kotzwell88]

homer pick, but needless to say, stay away from the UCF game. There will be an even amount of Canes fans there, and the only reason tey didnt cover last week is because they put in the 2nd string qb for the first time in his career to play the whole 2nd half... It's not quite a road game and its the first sell out in UCF's history... hmmm, why? because there will be more Miami fans than UCF fans in attendance. I also hated last weeks line to begin with against FAMJU at ~36 because Randy Shannon DOES NOT run up the scores in game a la Urban Meyer, etc. I hope for the bettors who took UCF's sake that it rains because its the only chance you got. Whipples Offense will kill UCF's D

[pags11]

kotzwell88,

it makes me very happy to hear you say this...always like it when the homers come on board and tout their teams...

[kotzwell88]

I love your other picks but the line has moved to 14 and I think MIA can cover that line that all I am saying. But admittedly said it was a homer pick. Just don't start thinking that it is a true "away" game

[kotzwell88]

I love your other picks but the line has moved to 14 and I think MIA can cover that line that all I am saying. But admittedly said it was a homer pick. Just don't start thinking that it is a true "away" game.

[stevepre]

would you play ucf at +14?

[NorthernLights]

Pags,

I am liking Nebraska -10.5 and Indiana +1.5. I would appreciate any input on these game if you have an opinion on them.

Thanks!

BOL this week again!

[pags11]

kotzwell88,

have you checked the injury report lately for Miami?...also, do you truly think Miami is going to be as fired up for this game as they were against Oklahoma? Va. Tech? Georgia Tech? FSU? No way man.

stevepre,

...I recommend the play at 14.5 or more...

northernlights,

at the current number of 10.5 I have a slight lean to Texas Tech...no opinion on Indiana...

[bypp]

Great writeups as always. Appreciate it and GL!

[pags11]

bypp...
...The Office is my favorite show...

[kotzwell88]

PAGS please dont think I don't love your picks I have nothing but the utmost respect for you. Any last new minute picks?

[sweetjones55]

I like the UM Hurricanes -14 this week, UCF is ranked 96th against the pass and are ranked 100th in total offense and this is all coming against teams without a winning record at this point. Memphis is 2-4, Buffalo 2-4 ECU 3-3, USM 3-3, and Samford 3-3.

Look for UM to do what they do and throw it all over UCF. Jacory Harris was taking out early in the 1st half against FAMU and he is going to look to have a huge game to get his name back in the heisman race. There is absolutely no reason to think UM won't pass it all over the place, Aldarius Johnson is not that big a loss because UM's deepest position is WR. UCF can't stop the pass and why would that change saturday against a team with a superior passing game to anyone that they have seen yet.

UCF was down by 3 to SAMFORD going into the 4th quarter @ home (24-21). Who is Samford???? UCF gave up 24 points to this Samford team and won the game 28-24. If Samford went in there for a home opener where UCF was fired up and still scored 24, UM will score 30+ points on this team. Samford is a D-II team and isn't even a good one at that with a record of 3-3.

UM wins 35-10

[sweetjones55]

I like that GT +3 pick, solid play.

[kotzwell88]

I like the UM Hurricanes -14 this week, UCF is ranked 96th against the pass and are ranked 100th in total offense and this is all coming against teams without a winning record at this point. Memphis is 2-4, Buffalo 2-4 ECU 3-3, USM 3-3, and Samford 3-3.

Look for UM to do what they do and throw it all over UCF. Jacory Harris was taking out early in the 1st half against FAMU and he is going to look to have a huge game to get his name back in the heisman race. There is absolutely no reason to think UM won't pass it all over the place, Aldarius Johnson is not that big a loss because UM's deepest position is WR. UM can't stop the pass and why would that change saturday against a team with a superior passing game to anyone that they have seen yet.

UCF was down by 3 to SAMFORD going into the 4th quarter (24-21). Who is Samford???? UCF gave up 24 points to this Samford team and won the game 28-24. If Samford went in there for a home opener where UCF was fired up and still scored 24, UM will score 30+ points on this team. Samford is a D-II team and isn't even a good one at that with a record of 3-3.

UM wins 35-10

Jones I'm with you but I don't bet my own teams who else you like?

[sweetjones55]

kotzwell, sent you a PM. Don't wanna go posting all my plays on someone elses page.

[pags11]

kotzwell88,

...no last minute picks...
sweetjones55,

...thanks for respecting my thread...

[sweetjones55]

Ya, hope you don't think I am trying to show you up with that hurricanes write up but I just always feel the more information a bettor has the better so I thought i'd just give you my tidbit on that game. I respect what you've been doing in college football so far, its impressive. Sent you a PM about some of my leans.

[pags11]

not at all sweetjones......haven't received the PM yet...

[MacAttack13]

Late to the party but are your picks usually 3 units? What is the highest unit you have?

I love the fact that you grab the points. Do you ever take the money line on some of the teams? Have you ever tracked your picks with the ML?

Thanks in advance

[sweetjones55]

Sent you that PM now pags. I also really like your SMU and Utah State picks, nice writeups.

[Joe Dogs]

Bol pags,show me the money.

[pags11]

macattack,

...welcome aboard...I just play my games against the spread but a lot of my dogs do end up winning outright...

sweetjones,

just pm'd you back...

joe dogs,
...I will Jerry McGuire style...

[awhitejackson]

Good luck this week... Very good analysis and writeups have me really liking Louisville, UAB, SMU, and Kentucky... Thanks...

[clowncar]

Stopping in to wish you good luck one last time and say that i hope you can afford a few extra super burritos next week.

[bypp]

bypp...
...The Office is my favorite show...

You just went up a notch in my book for sure.

[eastvan09]

Good luck Pags. I joined the forum two weeks ago and enjoy your posts. I'm Canadian and have only starting paying attention the College Football regular season recently (instead of only bowl season). I'm enjoying learning more about the game from all you die hards. Its going to be fun to follow. I've played all of your picks this week.

Pags: Regarding June Jones' staff, Jeff Reinbold worked under Jones at Hawaii. Does anyone know if Reinbold is with him at SMU? Reinbold is a colorful character, he was an assistant coach with the BC Lions (CFL) for several years in the 90s. I'm a CFL Lions fan.. not Detriot.. He was head coach with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers,

[lb49ers]

Jeff Reinebold is the wide receiver coach at SMU.

[pags11]

awhitejackson,
...glad we all agree on those sides...
clowncar,

...I'll be ordering one during our conference call again this week...GL

bypp,
...getting ready to watch yesterday's episode on my tivo...
eastvan09,

appreciate you getting involved in the thread...sounds like you are a football guy and are welcome in my thread anytime...

lb49ers,

...dave snow would be proud of you for using that education...

[pags11]

I wanted to dedicate my picks this week to gyno's dad who went into the hospital earlier tonight. Gyno is one of my good friends and his dad is a good man and an excellent handicapper. Please keep gyno's dad in your thoughts and let's hope for the best for gyno and his family.

[InTheHole]

Best of Luck

[pags11]

inthehole,

[MOONCRICKET]

pags-

you are the first capper to coment on chris ault being overrated and overhyped... i couldnt agree more. nevada doesnt often play on national tv but when they do it seems can always point to at leat 2 or 3 questionable coaching decisions and he never realy seems to have any sort of a plan and he never sems to make ANY adjustments. his offense is predictable even though nevada has the athletes and usually weak enough opponents for this mundane predictablity not to matter as these backs have enough talent to go the distance even if you know a run is coming (why? because they have already run 17 times in a row on first down, lol) so nevada ends up looking great against muttbreed defenses and ault gets enough wins to already be in the coaching hall of fame ( a joke IMO). no doubt that this line here (now +8') is way out of whack as nevada's defense make them a very precarious favorite at best and given utah state's performances in '09 versus big time programs has been worth noting even in losses. USU's front 7 is athletic enough to hold the wolfpack running attack in check. of course they wont shut down nevada as the 66 point total suggests but i expect a back and forth whoever has the ball last wins type of contest and for that reason i find great value in USU on the money line - havent checked exact figures yet but should be able to get +325 or so. while i respect your ability and have leans on all your plays i feel this is the standout move. and the real move here is the money line. any parlay bettors out there should seriously consider using USU +325 as an ONLY along with all your other moves in a series of 3,4 and 5 teamers that will all pay giant as long as USU wins outright. its incredible what a +325 will do for your 4 teamer's payout. its exponentila and well worth a 1/5 unit move to get back 40-1 or so payoff.

that's it im gonna lock in this ML before the line drops even more. great writeups. BOL.
here are my big moves for tomorrow : SMU under 54, uconn under 45, auburn under 57, and tex a&m over 59 and sides w.mich +7, penn st -17, tulane +17, tcu -22, vandy +7', okla +3, and ball st +3.

warning: *****for everyone loving houston over tulane just know this --- houston CANNOT TACKLE and teams that CANNOT TACKLE dont fare too well on the road laying 17 points.... also line opened at -20 and tulane stinks so beware---- tulane is the play.

thanks again for everything PAGS,

Mooncricket

[Kustac]

Good luck later today Pags