Pags' Plays 10/33

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  • RPP
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 09-07-09
    • 650

    #106
    I like the picks. I notice that you don't pick many if any teams that are giving up points. Is there a reason for this? I like the strategy, but I'm new to sports wagering so I wanted to hear your reasoning.

    Thanks.
    Comment
    • NorthernLights
      SBR Rookie
      • 07-13-09
      • 33

      #107
      Pags, nice plays last week even though I didn't follow you. Thanks for the input on Tenn for last Sat.

      Wondering if you have an opinion for tonights game on Ark St. vs UL Monroe-1.5, I'm leaning UL Monroe.
      Comment
      • pags11
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 08-18-05
        • 12264

        #108
        marabdl86,

        ...my total amount played on each game on Saturdays all range in the triple figures, so the least amount I play on a game is in the triple figures, as is the biggest amount I play on a game is still in the triple figures...just remember to play only a small percentage of your bankroll on each game (no more than 2-3%), and make sure you play with what you can afford to lose...

        jimmyet,

        ...and value are two key components to my handicapping strategy so yeah I do look for teams kind of flying under the radar...

        sexymit,
        ...glad to hear we agree with UCF...

        birdman779,
        ...try making straight plays, you will be happier in the long run...
        spongerat,

        RPP,

        it's college football and anything can happen...most of the time I'd rather have the plus sign by my teams name at the end of the game than the other way around...

        northern lights,

        have only seen Arkansas State play once this year and have yet to see La. Monroe...no play for me based on that and that I don't follow the Sun Belt conference very closely...
        Comment
        • phillybets
          SBR High Roller
          • 07-02-09
          • 148

          #109
          Wow Pags! U'r a true professional...Way to bang out 20 questions at once! I followed you last Saturday and will be doing so again this Saturday...Keep up the great work!
          Comment
          • Dana4U
            SBR Sharp
            • 10-28-08
            • 375

            #110
            Looking forward to the weekly write-ups again. KY is an interesting pick knowing that their starting QB is out. Also curious on the Georgia Tech pick. Va Tech really rolled the points up on Boston College - more than most thought possible. Here's to another prosperous week!

            Comment
            • Cougar Bait
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 10-04-07
              • 18282

              #111
              Originally posted by xyzky
              Undervalued team still this year!
              The more I look at this game, the more Utah State looks like the play. Everyone saw Nevada rout La Tech last week after putting up crazy numbers the week before (both at home). Look at how Nevada has played on the road this year. Now very well. They have also had an enormous problem with turning the ball over. Utah St. should be able to pass the ball as well, in case they get behind in this one. Right now it's just a lean, but I am trying to fill in a blank spot on the card. Looks like right side is the Aggies. Nice work Pags.
              Comment
              • renojoe
                SBR Rookie
                • 10-02-09
                • 27

                #112
                pags, again good job last week and thanks for your personal recommendations.... i forgot to ask you why you don't do NFL games..., i wish i could have had the same restraint, cuz all my winnings became losings on Sunday and Monday......

                renojoe
                Comment
                • Checkerboard
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 05-15-06
                  • 7799

                  #113
                  checking in. hi pags. keep up the fine work. best of luck the rest of the way!
                  Comment
                  • detroit71
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 09-25-06
                    • 27

                    #114
                    Pags, I noticed you tend to go for the teams that are given the points, can you explain your logic?
                    Comment
                    • Gundog
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 12-15-07
                      • 833

                      #115
                      Nice
                      The Good Lord" Gave you a Body that can stand Almost Anything. It's your mind you have to convince.

                      Once you learn to Quit It Becomes A " HABIT"



                      Im so far behind i actually think im in First.

                      To get to "Easy Street" you must Travel through "The Dump"
                      Comment
                      • twentyonekid
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 08-09-09
                        • 883

                        #116
                        PAGS,thanks for the plays once again buddy.....this is really going to be a big week for us,i can tell for some reason.......can't wait to see your write ups.....lets roll
                        Comment
                        • lb49ers
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 09-11-09
                          • 43

                          #117
                          Good luck Pags! I'll be on your plays once again.
                          Comment
                          • jholl
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 09-02-08
                            • 151

                            #118
                            Originally posted by JamesGenius
                            pags i told you last week youd have a great one and you did, good work

                            he is still below .500 for the season, so im rooting for him to get on the + side this week
                            Comment
                            • jellobiafra
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 03-08-09
                              • 6291

                              #119
                              Originally posted by detroit71
                              Pags, I noticed you tend to go for the teams that are given the points, can you explain your logic?


                              .
                              Originally posted by pags11
                              it's college football and anything can happen...most of the time I'd rather have the plus sign by my teams name at the end of the game than the other way around...
                              Comment
                              • braves25
                                SBR Rookie
                                • 10-09-09
                                • 6

                                #120
                                Pags:

                                Louisville line jumped to +13. The only injury I see is the starting safety for Louisville. Any idea what is going on?
                                Comment
                                • GoSooners
                                  SBR Rookie
                                  • 10-03-08
                                  • 18

                                  #121
                                  Pags...BOL buddy..Let's crack some nutts this week.
                                  Comment
                                  • spongerat
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 10-01-08
                                    • 2023

                                    #122
                                    Originally posted by jholl
                                    he is still below .500 for the season, so im rooting for him to get on the + side this week

                                    someone didn't pass middle school math. winning % doens't mean much if you vary unit bet size
                                    Comment
                                    • pags11
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 08-18-05
                                      • 12264

                                      #123
                                      phillybets,

                                      Dana4U,

                                      ...two words, Randall Cobb...GL

                                      Cougar Bait,

                                      ...exactly right!

                                      renojoe,

                                      I used to do the same thing...it was too hard to be great at both with being a recreational player I chose to spend my time and energy handicapping strictly college football, especially since it's my favorite sport to watch (referred to as 'God's sport" by some)...

                                      Checkerboard,
                                      Comment
                                      • pags11
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 08-18-05
                                        • 12264

                                        #124
                                        detroit71,

                                        see below...

                                        Gundog,

                                        twentyonekid,

                                        ..I feel the exact same way about this week!

                                        lb49ers,

                                        jholl,

                                        that will happen after this weekend's games...

                                        jellobiafra,

                                        braves25,

                                        this has been one of the craziest weeks of line moves that I have seen in my 25 years of doing it...no clue man...

                                        GoSooners,

                                        sounds good to me my midwest handicapping partner...

                                        spongerat,

                                        you are right about that...money management is the single most important key to being a successful handicapper...
                                        Comment
                                        • marabdl86
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 10-06-09
                                          • 1067

                                          #125
                                          Pags when college football is in offseason mode, what do you bet on?
                                          Comment
                                          • pags11
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 08-18-05
                                            • 12264

                                            #126
                                            marabdl86,

                                            four those 8 months I don't bet a dime on anything else...I've tried it all, all of the sports, table games including poker, and nothing else really does it for me like college football does...
                                            Comment
                                            • ackem19
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 10-07-09
                                              • 669

                                              #127
                                              pags11,

                                              i looked over that ASU pick as well as the ISU pick and opted to go with Houston -20 (i know you don't really take favorites, let alone road favorites giving up 20 points) and Colorado +9. just wondering if you had any thoughts on either one.

                                              i was also wondering what you usually look at when selecting which games to play. i know you like mid majors with less exposure and underdogs, but statistically, i've been trying to figure out how you get to your picks and i'm just lost.
                                              Comment
                                              • pags11
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 08-18-05
                                                • 12264

                                                #128
                                                ackem19,

                                                it's just 25 years of doing this and using my gut is pretty much how I come up with my plays...I tend to focus on the BCS conference schools for about 75% of my plays and tend to stay away from interconference Pac 10 games as I haven't done well with them over the years...

                                                no opinion on Houston but I would be hesitant to lay that many with them ont he road...no opinion on Colorado but I would say they are the better play of the two...can't even begin to give you an opinion on ASU...
                                                Comment
                                                • wal66
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 10-14-08
                                                  • 5305

                                                  #129
                                                  Late stopping in. Busy with games every night and still that degenerate gene that doesn't like to miss an opportunity.
                                                  Success with this weeks card.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • pags11
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 08-18-05
                                                    • 12264

                                                    #130
                                                    wal66,
                                                    Comment
                                                    • CLASSIC ROCK
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 07-23-09
                                                      • 574

                                                      #131
                                                      Pags anytime you with Paul Johnson you have a good chance of winning.I think he's one of the top three coaches out there
                                                      Comment
                                                      • pags11
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 08-18-05
                                                        • 12264

                                                        #132
                                                        classic rock,
                                                        ...agree with you on that...
                                                        Comment
                                                        • icemantbi
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 07-18-07
                                                          • 944

                                                          #133
                                                          Pags, I know you rarely play weekday games, but I'm looking at this Boise St./Tulsa game tonight. Seems to me the public is pounding Boise St. and yet the line keeps dropping... This is making me very tempted to make a play on Tulsa. Any thoughts?

                                                          Thanks
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Serbone
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 09-21-09
                                                            • 1300

                                                            #134
                                                            Originally posted by jholl
                                                            he is still below .500 for the season, so im rooting for him to get on the + side this week
                                                            You just don't get it, do you.
                                                            He is way ahead.
                                                            He started with 1/2 unit bets early in the season, moved up to 3 unit bets as season progressed.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • pags11
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 08-18-05
                                                              • 12264

                                                              #135
                                                              slightest of leans to Tulsa at 10 or more but probably won't be getting involved in this one...
                                                              Comment
                                                              • icemantbi
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 07-18-07
                                                                • 944

                                                                #136
                                                                Thanks Pags... I might put a couple bones on Tulsa.. my gut is telling me Tulsa covers, everyone else is saying Boise St. will blow out Tulsa... Line doesn't seem right to me and the movement is a huge red flag.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • THE_JOHN_ANTHONY
                                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                                  • 06-16-09
                                                                  • 19

                                                                  #137
                                                                  Took washington plus 8. I am definitely not sold on asu
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • pags11
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 08-18-05
                                                                    • 12264

                                                                    #138
                                                                    john anthony,

                                                                    ...appreciate you sharing that...
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • renojoe
                                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                                      • 10-02-09
                                                                      • 27

                                                                      #139
                                                                      pags, would you ever tease? like in the case with boise st .. tease it up to Tulsa getting 16 and over 47.5.

                                                                      is this wise?

                                                                      renojoe

                                                                      (from maryland.. go terps.. though they suck ash )
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Rixsaw
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 10-23-08
                                                                        • 4532

                                                                        #140
                                                                        this thread is just plain RIDICULOUS....It's only Wednesday and already has 138 posts and close to 10K viewed. You are a sick man pags. Have another great week buddy.
                                                                        Comment
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