Pags' Plays 10/33

[JimmyJet]

Pags...here is what I locked in on your plays:

UAB +22
Kentucky +13.5
Utah State +8
Georgia Tech +3
Louisville +13
UCF +14.5
SMU +8

Played all for 3 units and 2 units each on plays from cakasmaloy's system.....good luck to us all.

[oda11]

Thank you pags.

[pags11]

DREEZY,

I have a small lean to Missouri in that one but am not certain of the status of QB Gabbert's ankle...

JimmyJet,

oda11,
...you're welcome...

[shrax4]

Dying for the write ups...

[DREEZY]

whats the ETA on that write up pags???

[pags11]

Georgia Tech +3

As I watched last week’s game against Florida State I saw what I feel was the best execution of the triple option of any college team I’ve ever watched in college football. Some have referred to Paul Johnson’s Georgia Tech squad, as “The Perfect Option” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aI6EAsKvgg. What I witnessed last week is an offense that is firing on all cylinders. This is due to RB Anthony Allen now being fully healthy, and also Josh Nesbitt healing up and making excellent decisions. RB Roddy Jones is also back from injury and has a couple of games under his belt. Then you throw in All-ACC RB Johnathon Dwyer, who is now returning to his 2008 form and WR Demaryius Thomas, who is one of the top WR’s in the ACC, and this offense becomes truly unstoppable. Virginia Tech has shored up their run defense the past three weeks but this will be the stiffest test for them in that department since the Alabama game. Defensively, Georgia Tech will have to give an improved effort, which I think we will see this weekend. The focus of the defensive attack will have to be on Virginia Tech RB Ryan Williams, who has played extremely well so far this year. QB Tyrod Taylor has improved upon his passing skills but he shouldn’t pose the same threat that Jacory Harris did. Paul Johnson vs. Frank Beamer should be a good coaching match-up. From a situational standpoint, I like how this sets up with Virginia Tech having just blown Boston College out at home and Georgia Tech coming off a close victory against Florida St. From a value perspective, we are getting two teams who were picked at the beginning of the season to battle for the ACC title and now I am getting one of the teams at home and a field goal. Most importantly, though, the perception is that Virginia Tech is just going to come in and roll Georgia Tech. I’ve read and hear on TV many people talking about Virginia Tech playing in the national title game, and don’t think the Virginia Tech players don’t watch ESPN.

[pags11]

UAB +22

This isn’t the same UAB team you used to know. Neil Callaway is starting to turn this program around and part of the reasons is he has one of the most exciting players in Conference USA at his disposal in QB Joey Webb (53.7% comp., 6 TD/5 INT, 6.2 ypc., 5 TD). Webb is a threat with both his arm and with his feet and he should surprise the Ole Miss defense with his SEC caliber talent. RB Justin Brooks (4.6 ypc., 1 TD) is a capable back who takes some of the heat off Webb and does well in pass protection. UAB also has two talented pass catchers in TE Jeffery Anderson (12 rec., 14.9 ypr., 3 TD) and WR Frantrell Forrest (11 rec., 15.5 ypr., 3 TD) who should help UAB move the ball this week. UAB’s FG kicker, Josh Zaun (8/9 FG), is solid as well. UAB’s defense is much improved and fortunately they are catching a struggling Ole Miss offense at the perfect time, as they are really struggling. Ole Miss QB Jevon Snead (46.8% comp., 9 TD/ 9 INT) has what I refer to as the “yips”. I watch him each week and each week I think he is going to improve, but each week he continues to digress. Part of the reason for his struggles is that the Ole Miss offensive line is really having a tough time with their pass protection schemes. My belief is that they really miss OL Michael Oher from last year. RB/WR Dexter McCluster (4.4 ypc., 1 TD, 14 rec., 12.6 ypr., 1 TD) hasn’t been the same yet this year, and part of this is due to WR’s Mike Wallace’s departure to the NFL. I watched Houston Nutt’s press conference this week and he is doing his best, but you can tell that he’s searching for answers. This is the perfect time for UAB to come in and play Ole Miss after their loss to Alabama last week. Value is on the side of UAB, with them getting three plus TDs here. Perception wise, people see the preseason top 5 team against perceived bottom feeder of CUSA and they think it will be an easy blowout. Not so fast my friend.

[ackem19]

lol, love the corso quote.

[REDL1NE]

I'm with you. Good luck this week sir.

[Hotsauce_wally]

really enjoy your insights and writeups pags. Im from canada and just getting into college football, and really loving it! Just too many teams to follow. Don't get ESPN but starting to watch 2-4 games a week.

[oopfish]

Good luck this week... page 11

[pags11]

Kentucky +13

Why is everyone making such a big deal about the Kentucky quarterback situation? Do people realize that Kentucky has one of the best kept secrets in the SEC in QB/WR/RB Randall Cobb (6.5 ypc., 2 TD, 23 rec., 13.5 ypr., 4 TD). This Cobb kid is a player and I imagine that Kentucky head coach Rich Brooks will have a game plan to mix Cobb in some Wildcat packages, but I also think he can throw the ball down the field to keep Auburn’s offense honest. When Cobb is playing QB he will be handing off the ball to one of the more underrated RB’s in the SEC in Derrick Locke (4.2 ypc. 3 TD). The biggest thing I’ve been impressed with Kentucky’s offensive line. They are doing a great job opening up holes and giving the Kentucky QB’s time to through. Auburn’s defense has shown that offenses can move the ball on it regularly which should allow Kentucky to get their defense some rest in this game. Defensively, Kentucky possesses one of the more stout defensive lines in the SEC. Their front four allows them to get a lot of pressure on the QB and close up holes by opposing team’s running games. Kentucky also has a lot of team speed on defense, which they will need against Gus Malzahn’s spread option attack. Auburn will run a variety of formations, but as long as Kentucky can keep plays in front and turn them inside, they should be able to minimize the amount of big plays from the Auburn offensive attack. Ben Tate, Onterio McCalebb, Mario Fannin and Darvin Adams are all weapons QB Chris Todd has at his disposal. This will be the best defense this Auburn team has faced thus far this season and that will make this high of a spread hard to cover. I like that Auburn has LSU on deck as they may get caught looking ahead some in this game. I also like that Kentucky has Sun Belt foe Louisiana Monroe next week which means they should be supremely focused on trying to obtain their first SEC win. Perception is that Auburn blows the doors off Kentucky this week, but people should have seen last week that this Auburn team has some weaknesses and this Kentucky team isn’t an easy win.

[spongerat]

looking forward to a great week pags

[pags11]

SMU +7

This write-up goes out to LT Profits (cough, cough) who needs to spend more time watching games and less time with the stats sheets.

If you haven’t noticed yet you soon will but June Jones is already working his magic in Dallas. I told you last week that this team is really starting to buy into his system and they are displaying a winning attitude that should again carry over into this week’s game against Navy. I have said before that I think Jones is one of the top five coaches in the country and I stand by my statement as I feel he has done more with less than anyone I have ever seen in all of my years of watching college football. There will be a huge coaching mismatch in this game as I expect Jones to have a great game plan against Ken Niumatalolo. Then again, in most of the games Jones coaches in there is a huge coaching mismatch. SMU’s defense is against the run and that matches up well with Navy’s option attack. SMU will have to eye the cog to the Navy attack, in QB Ricky Dobbs (3.5 ypc., 14 TD, 53.7% comp., 3 TD/2 INT). RB Marcus Curry (7.6 ypc., 3 TD) and FB Alexander Teich (4.5) are the other two main components to the Navy offense. Offensively SMU will attempt to exploit the questionable Navy secondary that I have seen Ohio State, Pitt and Western Kentucky throw against with relative ease. SMU’s offense is really starting to click and part of the reason is the maturity of their QB Bo Levi Mitchell (57.9% comp., 10 TD, 10 INT). He is learning to throw the ball away when he needs to and has only thrown two interceptions the past two weeks against two very good defenses (TCU and ECU). He has four very solid WR’s to throw to, headlined by Emmanuel Sanders (47 rec., 11.2 ypr., 2 TD) and Aldrick Robinson (18 rec., 17.4 ypr., 2 TD). These four WR’s along with RB Shawnbrey McNeal (4.1 ypc., 2 TD) help form one of the more underrated offenses in the country. Situationally this game couldn’t set up any better for SMU as they get Navy making their second road trip to Texas in two weeks and also Navy plays Wake Forest at home next week, a team they played twice last year. Value is on the side of SMU as they are catching a TD at home against a team they match-up very well with. Fortunately for SMU most think that because Navy beat a very bad Rice team last week that they will do the same again this week to SMU. Not gonna happen.

[pags11]

Utah State +10

Talk about value, are you kidding me? We have Nevada coming off three home games, two in which they played very bad football teams and blew them out and now we have them going on the road laying double digits to one of the most improved teams in the country, in conference. I’ve got to tell you that I’m licking my chops here. This write-up will be short and sweet. Bottom line is that Utah State has played Utah, Texas A&M and BYU all on the road this year and they were competitive in all three games. Yes they had a slip up last week at NMSU but if you look at the box score they outgained NMSU by over 200 yards and it was a very bad spot for them. This game sets up very well for them as they get to come back to Logan and play their first home game against BCS competition. Expect USU head coach Gary Anderson, who served on Urban Meyer’ coaching staff at Utah, to have his troop ready to battle Chris Ault’s (one of the most overhyped an overrated coaches in the country) Nevada squad who always seems to struggle away from home. USU has two of the best players in the country you have never heard of in QB Diondre Borel (57.1% comp. 7 TD/1 INT) and RB Robert Turbin (7.2 ypc., 3 TD). Both of these players will put a lot of pressure on the Nevada defense, but Nevada can’t completely key on these two because USU still has other players that can hurt you like RB Michael Smith (6.1 ypc., 2 TD), WR Stanley Morrison (15 rec., 20.7 ypr., 1 TD), WR Omar Sawyer (12 rec., 12.9 ypr., 2 TD) and WR Eric Moats (10 rec., 13.1 ypr.). Nevada has some playmakers in their own right in QB Colin Kaepernick (65.6% comp., 6 TD/ 4 INT, 6.5 ypc., 3 TD) and RB’s Luke Lippincott (6.2 ypc., 1 TD), Vai Taua (6.4 ypc., 2 TD) and Mike Bell (10.6 ypc., 5 TD). The majority of Nevada’s attack comes on the ground and I think that USU’s defense matches up particularly well here. I’ve seen their defense on tape and they have a big, athletic front seven that should be able to keep Nevada in check. Nevada just blew out an overrated La. Tech squad (if anyone would know that it’s me) on national TV last week and because of that along with USU losing to NMSU, everyone is expecting a cake walk for Nevada in this game. Don’t be surprised if USU is leading this one heading into the fourth quarter.

[pags11]

Louisville +11.5

All aspects of my handicapping approach set up well in this game. For one, you are getting a supreme amount of value in getting this many points between to conference foes who match up well and have played each other closely over the years. Situationally, I like how Louisville is coming off a win vs. Southern Miss in which they gained a great deal of confidence and Connecticut is coming off a heartbreaking three point loss at Pitt, in a game that they were leading by two touchdowns in the second half. Perception is that Louisville is a bad football team, and while I admit they may not be the best the Big East has to offer, they have played a tough schedule so far this year (Kentucky, Utah, Pitt, Southern Miss) and I like the fact that most are dismissing them in this game. From a match-up standpoint, just like last week, both of these teams like to run the football and try to rely on their defenses to prevent the big play, which usually leads to grind-it-out types of football games, games where the points will be valuable in the fourth quarter. Look for Connecticut to feed RB Julian Toddman, who I saw limping during parts of last game (can’t read that in a stat sheet durito) and Andre Dixon. Countering that will be Louisville giving the ball Victor Anderson. This is a classic Big East battle, much like the one Connecticut was involved in last week, but instead of getting more than a score they are laying double digits. That being said, Louisville is the play here.

[ackem19]

great write ups. i played these six picks straight up (can't pick UCF. i'm a Miami fan and i refuse to "taint" their games with wagers haha). love the write ups and can't wait to see the results.

[pags11]

Central Florida +15.5

The stars all align for this play as we all four criteria in my handicapping system to be in the favor of UCF this week. One sided rivalries are always good for the underdog, as UCF will be supremely motivated for this game at home taking on in-state foe Miami. We’ve seen this Miami team beat Oklahoma, Georgia Tech and Florida State so the nature thought by most people would be that Miami will mop up the floor with UCF, right? Wrong. UCF head coach George O’Leary has had a week to prepare for this game and UCF’s stadium will be packed to it’s capacity, the most since Texas came to town a couple of years ago when UCF nearly upset them. Miami has Clemson the following week which could affect their focus for this game, where UCF has Rice and will not be looking ahead. Getting two TD’s plus may not seem like a lot of points to most people, but it will be in this game as these two played very close last year and UCF, like Miami, is much improved. UCF QB Brett Hodges is completing a high percentage of his passes and has a good RB in Brynn Harvey to give the ball too. He also has four solid WR’s in Rocky Ross, Kamar Aiken, A.J. Guyton and Jamar Newsome. This group should be able to have moderate success against a young Miami defense, which will keep Miami’s offense off the field and thus slow the game down. Miami QB Jacory Harris will make his share of plays, but the Miami running back corp. is a bit banged up (as well as WR Aldarius Johnson is hurt) heading into this game and I could see Miami head coach Randy Shannon limiting some of the carries of Javarris James and Craig Cooper. UCF has a solid front seven, particularly with their front four, and they will need to pressure Harris to help their young secondary. If UCF can limit big plays from Miami WR Travis Benjamin I give them a puncher’s chance to keep this game close for four quarters.

[pags11]

shrax4,
...hope you enjoy them...
DREEZY.
...there you go...

ackem19,
...I understand about UCF, glad we are on six together though...
REDL1NE,
...GL

Hotsauce_wally,
...try watching games on ESPN360.com...GL
oopfish,
...GL

spongerat,
...oh it will be, oh it will be...

[DREEZY]

thanks pimp for the write ups!!!!!!

[Kustac]

nice writeups as always pags! Question for you, you pointed out Auburn has LSU next week and may get caught looking ahead verses Kentucky having a UL Mon and being focused, do you extend this line of thinking to the previous week (Auburn taking a beating from Ark) and if so do you think that beating at Ark works in Auburn's favor or Kentucky's favor or makes no difference at all?

[clowncar]

ahhhhhhhhhhh my thursday night reading.

Thank you pags.

[pags11]

DREEZY,

Kustac,

terrific question...I think Auburn's loss last kind of sobered them and served as a reality check that could be both a negative and a positive...a negative for Kentucky in that they might be a bit angry towards the start of this game but a positive in that if Kentucky can keep this game close through the first half they might start thinking back to last week and start doubting themselves...

clowncar,

continue the great work and thank you for your help...

[Kustac]

Pags, Thanks for your excellent answer, I completely agree with the loss helping Auburn early but creeping into their heads if the game is close in the second half ... Your Kentucky play is the only one I haven't been able to pull the tigger on for myself this week, I agree with you completely on Cobb (with the total yards the guy puts up receiving, rushing, and kick returning he may end up with enough career yards that he's mentioned as a long shot for the heisman 2 years from now) where I suspect we don't agree on Cobb is his passing ability (52.5% completion, 2TD, 5 INT last year and this year he's 0/2 throwing the ball) Rich Brooks and Joker don't let him throw it much and I don't see that changing this game ... this leaves Fidler and Newton .... I really think Kentucky's best chance to cover would be if they let Fidler play the whole game and gave Cobb some snaps at QB also but I think we're going to see Newton the true freshman taking too many snaps at QB (as the word is both Fidler and Newton will play and a starter won't be announced until right before game time - rumor has it Newton is starting though) I'm affraid I don't see a good game coming for the true freshman who's never set foot in a college game before as this is going to be an extremely tough environment to be thrown into and probably means an interception or two and possibly more if he goes the whole game ... the offensive line is impressive but I just don't see them lining up and knocking Auburn off the ball to march down field 4 yrds at a time repeatedly and I don't feel confident that Newton won't get enough playing time to do too much damage (I see fewer turnovers if Fidler goes the whole game) I really see this game as a coin flip with the real possibility Kentucky is playing a true freshman qb in his first college game ever and also the real possibility Auburn mentally pencilled in the win and jumped ahead to thinking of that team called LSU Sorry this got so long ... its not meant to be critical at all Pags (I have the most respect for your plays and opinions Pags), just thought I'd share my concerns on this one as I suspect I'll just sit this one out

[pags11]

kustac,

excellent thoughts...agree with most you wrote...bottom line for me is that whoever plays QB I'm just not sure Auburn's defense can get enough stops to creat three TD's of separation (I say that because for me to be confident in the favorite I need to see them a TD ahead of the spread in the 4Q)...again thanks for posting...

[Cougar Bait]

Louisville and SMU writeups were right on target with what I had been thinking. Very nicely done. You were talking about June Jones the moment he came to SMU and what kind of ability he brings. I am amazed to see that he is still flying under the radar.

[Flaghunter]

Pags Awesome write-ups. I wanted to read about your Kentucky and SMU wit as to why they are picks for you. It's in the reading well done. GaTech has it going now. UAB well done! I'm with YA AGAIN this week my Friend...Seeing the TRAIN getting STREEEEETched out .... Peace

[taurus]

Just completed my Friday morning reading.
BTW before I forget, I went 6-1 on last week's plays
I must have gotten a better number somewhere along the line.

Not so this week, as you have moved the line in at least 3 games.
I 've locked in SMU with 7 and +juice at Matchbook, but I'm waiting on the others to see if I can get a better number or lower juice. Betjamaica goes to 105 tonite and 5Dimes does the same tomorrow. So I expect to be on board with the other six before kickoffs
GL as usual, real nice work last week, and keep the gravy train agoing.

[xyzky]

Thanks for your time and effort! You going to be around this afternoon? I am meeting the team over at Tommy's for some BP.

[MickChunky]

Thanks for the write-ups, good reading for lunch

[smack3179]

Great picks as usual pags. I went with all of them last week and going twith everyone this week also. Lets cash it in big. I know u dont really like the weekday games but I was wondering if u have any leans for tonights game? I was liking Pitt -5.5. I just think that Rutgers is not a good team at all and if it wasnt for their record this spread would be a lot more. Just my thoughts and was wondering what yours were> Thanks again Pags.

[Mr Handicapable]

Hey Pags,

Love your plays this week...I've been riding SMU too...great coach and fun system to watch win or lose! Do you have any lean in the New Mexico State/La Tech game? I was on NM St. as a home dog last week vs Utah State and they won SU...now they're getting 20.5 at La Tech? RB Porter seems to be the big hitter for La Tech and he's a little banged up w/his hamstring! Seem like atleast a TD too much to give imo?

[saltwatercowboy]

Love the SMU write up. As I said before, June Jones is really underrated as a coach and should get more credit. Give him a few more years at SMU and he will have them a conference championship.

[lb49ers]

Enjoyed reading your insights on each game. Good luck!

[morrow]

What's up Pags, rare post for me you know. Love the Utah St pick, scared of Kentucky but agree with all, except SMU. I don't buy June Jones being ready for Navy. I am on Baylor, Air Force, and Ohio as well this week. G/L nice to see you starting to roll.

Morrow.