**Square Bet No More - NCAAF Season Thread**

[SquareBetNoMore]

Utah -13.5 (3u) - L
Boise St -3 (4u) - L
Arkansas St +10.5 (3u) - W
Minnesota -6 (3u) - L
Tulane +28.5 (2u) - L
UTSA +17 (2u) - L
Marshall -3 (3u) - L
Pittsburgh -12.5 (2u) -W
Indiana -7 (3u) - W
Tulsa +4 (2u) - W
Cincinnati -6.5 (2u) - L
Houston +14 (3u) - W
Wake Forest +4 (2u) - L
Bowling Green +7.5 (2u) - W
Tulane +32.5 (1u) - L
Texas Tech -21 (2u) - W
Arizona -10 (2u) - W
Kansas +13 (3u) - L
San Jose St +5 (2u) - L

Week 2- 8-10 (-9.7 units)

Year to date: 19-14 (57.6%, +11.1 units)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Tough breaks got the best of us a few games yesterday. Just wanted to go over a few.

Utah QB goes out early in the 2nd quarter. The backup they brought in wasn't a passing threat and it cost us points on the board.

Boise state was our strongest play yesterday and byu did their best auburn impression. Boise gave up the 80+ yard bomb TD pass on 3rd and long on the first possession and also the 4th and 7 hail marry into multi coverage. At the very least I push without the HM and many of you win at -2.5. Tough loss. Win woulda made a bad day alright.

I was impressed with Minnesota defense last week against TCU. I am less impressed by their offense after two weeks. They found some way to win and probably should have. They out gained CSU by 100 yards, the 4 turnovers on the road will usually keep us backers from cashing.

Tulane laid down. They had a chance to get within 14 before half, but couldn't. They laid down in the second half.

UTSA was only down 7-3 at half and they never could get going on offense. Had a chance to cover but couldn't find any points!

Marshall turned the ball over 4 times, if you do that at any level you will struggle to win. If you told me I needed Marshall to get 24 to push/win I'd bet it again. Just can't predict turnovers like that.

Cincinnati might be another of the most disappointing finishes considering cinci out gained temple 557-296! Cinci also out did temple in turnovers with 5! They also managed to give up a KO return. Tough loss.

So the story is the same with Wake Forest. In the game most of the day but found a way to commit 3 turnovers on the road. Typical result!

Kansas was the one game I felt like we were on the completely wrong side (Tulane a close second). They got out gained by 300 yards even after winning the turnover battle by 3.

San Jose state was in it in the 4th quarter and couldn't finish. Could have easily gone the other way, instead SJ St got out scored 20-0 at half.

Like I stated above, just wanted to look at some of these games. I don't mind losing the turnover battle, just hopefully not my 2 or more and even more so on the road! If someone can find a way to predict turnovers please let me know haha! Sorry if some of you just started following this week. Tough week with some of the events I discussed above. Hopefully luck is a little more in our favor next week!!!

[DOM-Ganador]

Keep up the good work man.

I bet mostly NFL, but love to read the CFB forum and maybe find a few choice picks for some degen action on Sat.
3-1 tailing your picks the last few weeks.

Hope you have a nice, consistent and productive season.

[jobanger]

Does your system work with totals?

[SquareBetNoMore]

No Jobanger, it uses a power ranking that doesn't factor in any kind of style of play or points per yard.

[SquareBetNoMore]

Thanks DOM! Hopefully we get a little better luck in the turnover column this week. If so, I think we rack up a good winning weekend! Thanks again for following!

[Nessie_Alliance]

Any picks yet for this weekend?

[SquareBetNoMore]

The wait is over, I've got to get some action tonight. I have Clemson as a team to compete with the best in The country and if they want to move forward they have to start dominating inferior teams!

Clemson -5 (1u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Painful to watch, clemson defense dominated and their offense settled for the field goal late. When the KO return comes I knew we were in trouble. Had several chances to bury them and move two 13 or 14 points. Token bet tonight shouldn't hurt too bad, just would be nice to be on the good end of some of the special teams scores and turnover battles

[gs]

Are you making any adjustments to your system due to the sharper lines.

[SquareBetNoMore]

The big games are all going to be sharp and keep getting sharp, so you will see less bets around those. But, I do think there is plenty of value on teams outside the top 25. I am however spending more time trying to find how vulnerable teams are to turnovers each week. More times than not I've found that if we can keep the TO battle even or only lose it by 1, we usually have a good chance to win. I'll have a similar number of plays tomorrow as week one and two. Plenty of action!

[gs]

good luck bro

[SquareBetNoMore]

Thanks GS, I'll be doing a good bit of work tonight so I might have a few plays late tonight.

[SquareBetNoMore]

Hey guys, something came up this evening and I just got home a few minutes ago (about 3AM EST) so I don't have any bets that you can go ahead and put in. I'm going to get a little rest and grind a little a couple of hours before noon kickoffs. To add insult to not getting to look at any of tomorrow's games, I also missed a 3u bet on New Mexico this evening. Go figure I missed getting to bet it and it won. Oh well, sht happens I reckon, let's get it tomorrow!!!

[SquareBetNoMore]

Kent St +24.5 (2u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Northwestern +4 (3u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

South Florida +7 (3u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

FAU -2.5 (1u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

UNC -7 (4u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

North Texas +7 (3u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Syracuse -7 (2u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Uconn +21 (1u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Louisiana Tech +10 (3u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Bowling Green +3.5 (4u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Washington -7 (2u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

UMASS +14 (2u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Cincinnati -21 (1u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Indiana -3 (2u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Troy +29.5 (1u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Pittsburgh +4 (3u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Much better week this week. Back to a profitable week! Nice seeing most of the bigger plays hit.

Clemson -5 (1u) - L
Kent St +24.5 (2u) - W
Northwestern +4 (3u) - W
South Florida +7 (3u) - L
Florida Atlantic -2.5 (1u) - L
UNC -7 (4u) - W
North Texas +7 (3u) - L
Syracuse -7 (2u) - L
UCONN +21 (1u) - W
Louisiana Tech +10 (3u) - W
Bowling Green +3.5 (4u) - W
Washington -7 (2u) - W
UMASS +14 (2u) - W
Cinci -21 (1u) - L
Indiana -3 (2u) - P
Troy +29.5 (1u) - W
Pittsburgh +4 (3u) - W

Week 3 - 10-6-1 (62.5%, +11.73)

Year to date: 29-20-1 (59.2%, +22.8 units)

[SquareBetNoMore]

While doing some research on my plays I found a clerical error. My posting record is actually 30-20-1 (60%, +22.2u).

Week 1: 12-4 (+20.2u)
Week 2: 8-10 (-9.7u)
Week 3: 10-6-1 (+11.7u)

Not too shabby, hopefully we avoid another week 2.

[shopbar picks]

Congrats

[SquareBetNoMore]

Thanks Shopbar! Hopefully folks are tailing or at least tracking. If they aren't it's their loss right

[SquareBetNoMore]

Hey guys, I'll definitely have a play on Cincinatti tonight. I nearly fired at +10 last night but chose to wait to see Kiel's status and it's at +8 now. I'll be firing 3u if it gets to +7.5. If it gets back to +10 I'll probably go 4u. I'll post an official play once I make my play!