**Square Bet No More - NCAAF Season Thread**

[SquareBetNoMore]

Alright, not a horrible week of college, not profitable but easily could have yielded a great rate. Below are the results and thoughts on games that could have easily gone our way.

Week 7
UCLA +7 (3u) - L
Cincinnati +4 (3u) - L
Western Michigan +4 (4u) - W
Pittsburgh +3.5 (3u) - W
Mississippi State -12.5 (4u) - W
Memphis +11 (3u) - W
Virginia Tech +3.5 (4u) - L
Virginia -7 (3u) - L
Nebraska ML (+111) (2u) - W
Hawaii +3.5 (2u) - W
Missouri +15 (2u) - W
Arizona State +4.5 (3u) - L
Penn State +18 (3u) - L

Week 7 Results
7-6 (54%, -.4u)

Season Results to Date
65-56-3 (53.7%, +11.6u)

I actually missed a 3u play on Oregon +3 late last night. Thats my bad!

We had a few games that I felt could have gone the other way and led us to a very profitable day.

Friday night Cincinatti could have easily covered. Led by 7 after half and 3rd quarter and proceeded to be out scored 21-0 in the fourth. Sad to see them all but lay down to finish the game.

Virginia Tech was in the game the entire way even though they turned the ball over 4 times. Matched Miami in yards nearly and couldn't cut out the turnovers. Turning it over just twice would have given us a great chance to cover. Maybe next time.

Arizona State led by 4 going to the 4th and did their best Cincinatti impression. Out scored 20-0 in the 4th. Also lost the turnover battle 2-0. Another game that easily gone the other way, maybe next time.

Overall, not a horrible week. I felt like we were only on the wrong side of UCLA and Virginia. On to next week!

[SquareBetNoMore]

Temple +3 (3u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Another painful game to watch on a Thursday night but its a good start to the weekend, lets get after it!

[SquareBetNoMore]

I'm gonna go degenerate tonight and bet two minimum plays!

Tulsa +10 (1u)
San Diego +4 (1u)

Good luck all!

[SquareBetNoMore]

Miami +7 (3u)
UCF +21.5 (1u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Louisville -7 (3u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Auburn +7 (3u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Indiana +14.5 (3u)
Tennessee +14.5 (3u)

[DOM-Ganador]

Squareman....

Nobody talking about Rutgers @ home getting 21 vs. the Buckeyes.
They gave Mich St all they could handle.

What do you think??

Also, those +7.5 and +14.5 lines are usually set for a reason. Any time a dog is +.5 over a key # in the NFL, I take a long hard look.
Especially if the books are stubborn and stick with line while getting bet heavy.

Had my biggest day ever when Den/Sea SuperBowl and the books dug their heals in, never wanting Sea to get to 3.
Bet them every way possible.

[SquareBetNoMore]

Hawaii +7 (2u)
MTSU +7 (3u)
SMU +12 (2u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

DOM I totally agree and especially this weekend. I don't feel great about a few of these bigger dogs but honestly I'm glad I got the hook because I would have bet them on the number 😉

[SquareBetNoMore]

DOM as for Rutgers tonight I'm staying away, they might cover because that's a lot of points but I don't like Michigan state as much as Ohio st, I was on Rutgers earlier in that game, but I wouldn't be surprised if you see a more OSU like game played for 4 quarters this week. I think OSU goes with that quick pace of play, maybe an over play?

[SquareBetNoMore]

Texas A&M +6 (2u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Washington +14 (2u)
Colorado ML (+100) (2u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Results from last week:

Temple +3 (3u) - W
Tulsa +10 (1u) - L
San Diego +4 (1u) - W
Miami +7 (3u) - L
UCF +21.5 (1u) - L
Louisville -7 (3u) - L
Auburn +7 (3u) - L
Indiana +14.5 (3u) - L
Tennessee +14.5 (3u) - W
Hawaii +7 (2u) - L
MTSU +7 (3u) - L
SMU +12 (2u) - L
Texas A&M +6 (2u) - L
Washington +14 (2u) - L
Colorado ML (+100) (2u) - W

Week: 4-11 (-16.6u)

Season to date: 69-67-3 (-5.0u, 50.7%)

[SquareBetNoMore]

So, I honestly wasn't even mad after this past week's bets. When the auburn game found some way to not win, not push, but lose outright, I had a feeling and it just kept on coming. With that said, I'll break down a few games and look at how we got so unlucky.

Auburn +7 - Not much to say here, game is tight the entire way really and auburn finds a way to get into field goal range with just over a minute to play. FG forces overtime and the rest is history, had plenty of chances to at the very least push, tough beat.

Louisville -7 - Another game I had to look into and see what was going on. First thing that always stands out is turnovers. Louisville 4. BC 1. At home. Even worse.... Louisville out gained BC 365-79. BC had 4 first downs, ALL GAME! And covered! Oh well, another tough beat!

Hawaii +7 - Every bit as painful a beat as Auburn. Hawaii led 17-0 with 5 min left before half... They were out scored 30-3 from that point on. Hawaii lost the turnover battle 4-1 as well. Same thing, different game. It's hard to predict that!

Indiana +14.5 - This game had the same feeling of the Auburn game, I just knew garbage TDs would go down. Indiana played with Michigan State the entire game minus the last 5 minutes. MSU scored 21 points in the final 5 minutes, Indiana finds any way to score in the 4th we probably hit.

Texas A&M and Miami were about as inexplicably bad as you can be in a big game. Shame on their effort! And me for expecting more! 😉

MTSU and SMU were also horrible with turnovers. Both had -3 turnover margins. MTSU threw a pick 6 and fumbled immediately the next drive. 14 quick points doomed them early. Didn't feel like we were necessarily on the wrong side but didn't feel we got the shaft on these two.

So, with a tad bit of luck we could have done a much better job than 4-11. Louisville, auburn, and Indiana are all 5.7u swings. That comes out to an even day, not even including Hawaii (3.8u swing). If someone can help me find a little insight in predicting turnovers I would greatly appreciate it. Until then, all we can do is keep trucking! Here's to a better week 9!

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

Keep grinding my friend. thanks for your hard work.

[SquareBetNoMore]

Trying man, monster week followed up by a tough week. Plenty of games left though, maybe we can get a few monster weeks in a row. I feel better about this week's game than last week so hopefully we can swing back up into the black!

[SquareBetNoMore]

Alright, going to try a few more plays this week with more smaller plays... We'll see how it goes!

Tonight:
UNC -1 (1u)
TCU -13 (1u)
Oregon +3 (2u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Nice start to the week, it was tough to watch that Oregon game. Got bailed out a few times. 3-0 last night, will probably have a couple plays for tonight, let's keep grinding!

[SquareBetNoMore]

Connecticut +5.5 (1u)
Rice +10.5 (1u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Rutgers +19 (3u)
Auburn +7.5 (2u)
Penn St -5 (1u)
South Carolina +15 (3u)
FSU -16 (1u)
Virginia tech -2.5 (1u)
Nebraska -7 (1u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Virginia +4 (2u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Maryland +17.5 (3u)
SDST -3 (1u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Georgia pk (1u)
Florida Atlantic +2 (1u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

NC State +13 (2u)
Texas Tech +3 (1u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Louisiana Lafayette -10 (3u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Texas -3 (1u)
Vanderbilt +10 (2u)
Oregon state +26 (1u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Miami +10 (2u)
Michigan -11 (3u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

Arizona +4 (2u)
Stanford -10 (1u)

[DOM-Ganador]

C`mon Square...stop being such a weak ass wussy and pick a few games.....

BOL today

[SquareBetNoMore]

NIU +7 (1u)

[SquareBetNoMore]

So, not a horrible week last week. Once again Auburn played their hearts out only to waste a great opportunity. NC State battled Clemson to nearly get a cover. Same can be said with Texas tech scoring 50+ and missing haha! Lost a few units, this next week we are due to hit a big week, keep grinding!!!

Last week:
UNC -1 (1u) - W
TCU -13 (1u) - W
Oregon +3 (2u) - W
UCONN +5.5 (1u) - W
Rice +10.5 (1u) - L
Rutgers +19 (3u) - L
Auburn +7.5 (2u) - L
Penn St -5 (1u) - W
South Carolina +15 (3u) - W
FSU -16 (1u) - W
Va Tech -2.5 (1u) - W
Nebraska -7 (1u) - L
UVA +4 (2u) - W
Maryland +17.5 (3u) - W
SD St -3 (1u) - W
UGA pk (1u) - L
FAU +2 (1u) - W
NC State +13 (2u) - L
Texas Tech +3 (1u) - L
ULL -10 (3u) - L
Texas -3 (1u) - L
Vandy +10 (2u) - L
Oregon St +26 (1u) - W
Miami +10 (2u) - W
Michigan -11 (3u) - L
Arizona +4 (2u) - L
Stanford -10 (1u) - L

Week 9: 14-13 (-3.9u, 51.8%)

Year to date: 83-80-3 (-8.9u, 50.9%)

Good start to the big week with NIU tonight, here's to some good luck!

[jpot34]

So, not a horrible week last week. Once again Auburn played their hearts out only to waste a great opportunity. NC State battled Clemson to nearly get a cover. Same can be said with Texas tech scoring 50+ and missing haha! Lost a few units, this next week we are due to hit a big week, keep grinding!!!

Last week:
UNC -1 (1u) - W
TCU -13 (1u) - W
Oregon +3 (2u) - W
UCONN +5.5 (1u) - W
Rice +10.5 (1u) - L
Rutgers +19 (3u) - L
Auburn +7.5 (2u) - L
Penn St -5 (1u) - W
South Carolina +15 (3u) - W
FSU -16 (1u) - W
Va Tech -2.5 (1u) - W
Nebraska -7 (1u) - L
UVA +4 (2u) - W
Maryland +17.5 (3u) - W
SD St -3 (1u) - W
UGA pk (1u) - L
FAU +2 (1u) - W
NC State +13 (2u) - L
Texas Tech +3 (1u) - L
ULL -10 (3u) - L
Texas -3 (1u) - L
Vandy +10 (2u) - L
Oregon St +26 (1u) - W
Miami +10 (2u) - W
Michigan -11 (3u) - L
Arizona +4 (2u) - L
Stanford -10 (1u) - L

Week 9: 14-13 (-3.9u, 51.8%)

Year to date: 83-80-3 (-8.9u, 50.9%)

Good start to the big week with NIU tonight, here's to some good luck!

Good luck winning when you bet that many games.

[SquareBetNoMore]

True, just trying a different filter, hence only a 1 unit play. One unit plays were actually 9-6 last week. 2 and 3 unit plays were 5-7. Just playing with a few things. Had I only given strongest plays I'd lost more last week 😕 I understand what you mean though, I made the extra plays just one unit to minimize impact to the overall since most plays have been 2-3units all year. I'll look at plays this week and see what I think, but like I said, the increase in games picked was a newer filter that actually made out pretty well at 9-6.