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Love The Action
NCAAF 2011-2012 Conference Season
73 - 78 = -2.65x
NCAAF 2011-2012 Bowl Season Plays Update
10 - 6 = +9.65x
NCAAF 2011-2012 Season
83 - 84 = +7x
NCAAF 2011-2012 Bowl Season Plays
Play #1
West Virginia/Clemson over (56) 6x (Locked) WINNER
This was the play I was eyeing as soon as the bowl assignments were announced. I ran this game through my model that night and I have the total set at 63.5. Once I saw my local open at 56, I was shocked and had to make my biggest play of the year on this game. At the very worst, I will have a great middle opportunity. However, I plan on letting it ride. In this game, we will have two of the most prolific offenses squaring off against two mediocre defenses. Both WVU and Clemson are ranked in top 20 and in some categories top 10 in offensive rushing and passing F/+, FEI and S&P+ advanced efficiency statistics. Despite the bowl layoff, I think we see fireworks and this game gets into the 70's. If you go back throughout the season, both teams' games eclipsed the 56 point mark over 70% of the time. Both teams play at a quick pace which should lead to an abundance of plays. In addition, both teams have solid Ex ratings evidencing the big play capability of both offenses -- I expect quite a few "big plays" in this game. Make no mistake, however, this is a value play. I have this set at 63.5 and I was able to get 56. That is just too much value to pass up and I am rolling with the over for 6x. Good luck.
Play #2
Wisconsin/Oregon over (72) 2x (Locked)WINNER
I wanted to ensure getting this one below the key totals number of 73. That is the key to this play. Even though Oregon has a solid defense, other than USC and Stanford, Oregon has not faced an offense anywhere near what they will face against Wisky. We all know about Wilson and Ball and the numbers they have put up this year. On the other side, you have Thomas and James. Both offense have great playmakers and this is evidenced in the advanced stats. Wisky ended up with the #1 offense overall in F/+ and S&P+ advanced ratings, while coming in at #2 in FEI. Oregon is top 10 in those same categories. Even though Oregon has top 10 defensive stats, Wisky is ranked in the 30's. This is a big total, but I expect a lot of offense in this game. Everyone likes to point to last year's NC game with Oregon and believes the layoff hurts this rhythm offense. However, I'm not willing to go there yet because 1 is an insignificant sample size. I have this one set at 76 and this is too much value to pass up. In addition, I think this one ends up closing in that 76-77 range and giving us a good shot at a middle if we choose. Life is about options and I like having them. For now, I am rolling wit the over for 2x. Good luck.
Play #3
Temple (-6.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER
I think this this number dipped below 7 at some outlets based on the uncertainty surrounding Coyer,while some outlets like Pinny opened at 6.5. I do not expect him to play or to be limited at best, so I am only taking 1x for now. I might jump on this for more later, especially if Coyer ends up playing and reports about his health are upbeat closer to game time. I suppose some might argue Wyoming has more to play for and will be the more motivated team, but I'm not sure that is the case. What I am sure of is that Temple dominates this matchup in every major advance efficiency categories. Temple ranks in the 30's or better in offense and defense in F/+, FEI and S&P+, while Wyoming is in the bottom 3rd of NCAAF in the same offensive and defensive categories. I have Temple at -9 in this game which is quite a bit of value on this play so I may be missing something, but I think Temple rolls. Temple has the best offensive player on either team in Pierce at RB and I always like to back the team with the best play-maker. In this game, the dominance on both sides of the ball as well as the dominance in overall athleticism makes Temple the play. I am getting 2.5 points of value on the side which is significant and I expect this one to close above the key number of 7. I am rolling with the Temple for 1x now and maybe more as we get closer to game day. Good luck.
Play #4
Western Michigan/Purdue over (60) 1x (Locked)WINNER
I realize Carder separated his shoulder, but he is still expected to be healthy and start in this game. Even if he doesn't you have to impressed by what VanTubbergen did against Akron -- 6 td's in a game is no small feat. This game is all about weak defenses and teams that like to play a quick pace offensively. Both teams are ranked in the 90's in time of possession and both teams like to play a quick paced spread offense. This is also backed up by advanced adjusted pace statistics which have both of these teams in the upper 1/3 of fastest offenses. On defense, both teams are just bad coming in at the 90's or lower in defensive F/+, FEI and S&P+. Even the traditional stats highlight the weakness of these two defenses. I expect WMU to play very well and be very motivated in this game. In fact, I will be on WMU if I can get them at +3 as we get closer to game time. The "active dog" theory definitely applies to this WMU team in this game. As a Big Ten team, Purdue will not be as excited to play in this rinky dink bowl against a rinky dink team like WMU. On the other side, however, WMU will be pumped as this is a great opportunity to show the Big Ten up and show the MAC to be a competitive conference. I have this one set at 63.5 and I'm jumping on the value at 60. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #5
Utah State/Ohio over (58) 1x (Locked) LOSS
I think we see a high scoring game on Saturday between these two teams. You have Utah State who has a highly rated offense but poor defense going against an Ohio team that does a great job of adjusting its style of play to create as many mismatches with its opponents as possible. I'm a big fan of Tettleton at qb for Ohio and I expect them to play more aggressively against Utah State than they did in the MAC championship against NIU. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but the time of possession stats tell me that Utah State is a big play team. Even though they are a more run oriented offense, then average under 28:45 in TOP per game. When you look at their FEI Ex rating of 16th, it's clear this team can put together consistent drives with multiple big plays. If Utah State can get out to a lead early and force Ohio to rely more on the pass, I think this one could easily end in the high 60's or low 70's. I have this total set at 61.5 and we are getting over a fg of value. Therefore, I am going to roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #6
Texas A&M/Northwestern over (65) 1x (Locked)LOSS
I like Persa and NU to score in this game, but ultimately be overcome by the speed of A&M. NU's defense is brutal and A&M should be able to score with ease. However, NU can put up some points as well. Northwestern is actually a top 25 offense when it comes to F/+ and S&P+, but ranked as high as 14 in FEI overall offensive ratings. However, NU's defense is just really bad ranked between 90 and 110 in those same advanced defensive categories. On the other side, you have an explosive offense in Texas A&M that is a to 20 offense in the advanced stats and a top 40 defense. I believe it's that defensive advantage that will give A&M the victory, but I expect a high flying game from NU and them to give this SEC inbound team it's money's worth just like they did with TTech in last season's bowl game. I think NU is an active dog and I like this one to fly over the posted total. I have this one set at 69 and we're getting 4 points of value here ,so I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #7
Arkansas State/Northern Illinois over (62) 1x (Locked)
ADDED MIDDLE PLAY
Arkansas State/Northern Illinois under (67) 1x (Locked)
I should have taken it at 61, but didn't have the game capped yet. I have this one set at 65 so there's too much value to pass up. Harnish and co. will bounce back from two games in a row of offensive struggles and Arkansas State will put up some points as well. NIU has a great offense that has to be chomping at the bit to get in the end zone after two game in which they won, but did not play well on offense. I just can't see them going this many games in a row with such poor output. On the other side, NIU's defense is suspect and I expect AKST to pull out all the stops in this one. Ryan Aplin's a solid qb that is ranked 44th in passing efficiency and I expect AKST to keep this game interesting by answering that uptempo NIU offense. I expect them to play a lot faster than they did to close out the season and Harnish to have a huge game. I have this one set at 65 give us a field goal of value and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
EDIT - I'm adding the under at 67 and shooting for a full 2x middle. We are covering the key number of 63 for the over and we are covering the key number of 66 on the under while getting a push at 67. Because of the strength of Arkansas State's defense and long layoff leading to some rusty offense, I think this game sets up perfectly for a middle. Therefore, I am going to shoot for the middle and a possible win of 2x for the risk of 0.1x. Good luck.
Play #8
Florida International (-4) 1x (Locked) LOSS
The only thing that scares me about this game is that both teams have very similar Sagarin and Massey scores. However, other than that, FIU dominates the advanced stats on both sides of the ball and on special teams. With this game being played in the sunshine state in Tampa, I just can't resist laying the points in the spot. This will be the best season ever for a FIU team if they can get their 9th win and I think this means a lot to the players who will be playing in front of a home crowd. As you know, during the bowl season, motivational qualitative factors must be weighed more heavily than the regular season and in this game -- much like with our play on Temple -- we see a team in FIU that has a strong advantage in both the quantitative statistical side and the qualitative motivational side. When you add that FIU has the best quarterback in Carrol over the duo of freshman Cato and soph Graham and the best playmaker in TY Hilton, this is a no brainer. Finally, the defense completely dominates in comparison to Marshall's defense where FIU allows 19 a game and Marshall is in the 26 range. I have FIU set at -6 in this game and we are getting a full two points of value on the side. Based on the better stats, the better motivation and the home field advantage, I have to roll with FIU for 1x now. I may add to this play down the line depending on what happens with the number. I personally expect for this one to close at -5, but we might see some money drop this a bit before FIU money pushes this over the top. Good luck.
Play #9
Washington/Baylor over (78) 1x (Locked)WINNER
This is one in which I will probably play it for multiple units down the line, but I'm going to lock in at least one right now. I'm just not sure how long 78's will be around when a lot of outlets are at 78.5. I would play this all the way up to 79, but not above that. This should be the highest scoring game of the bowl season. Both teams heavily rely on the pass and have really poor defenses. Price versus RGIII should be a great battle. The advanced stats really tell the story here where you have a top 10 offense in Baylor against a Washington defense ranked around 90 in F/+, FEI and S&P+ defensive ratings and top 35 offense in Washington against a Baylor defense ranked well over 105th in the most important advanced statistical categories. I think Sarkesian knows that with RGIII going against his Huskies, he's going to need to air it out for recruiting purposes. On the other side, RGIII and Baylor will employ the same aggressive offensive attack that they have all year. I see both teams scoring over 7 td's in this one and that should make it interesting. I have this game set at 83, which gives us 4 points of value and I'm rolling with the over for 1x now and maybe more down the line. Good luck.
Play #10
Louisiana Tech/TCU under (57)(-120) 1x (Locked)WINNER
Here's a game where I am going to buy the hook up to 57. Legends is currently carrying 56.5 as well as a few other books and I am going to buy up to 57. Pinny and others have been holding steady at 55.5 and recently started juicing the under which suggest a move to 55 might not be far behind. I'm not going to take any chances as I feel 57 is key to this play as that number is the 25th most important key number in NCAAF and with TCU's explosive offense, I don't want to take a chance. I fully expect this game to be won on the defensive end and for defense to come up big. Both defenses are top 20 in F/+, FEI and S&P+ advanced efficiency stats against both the run and the pass. With LouTech having a suspect offense and TCU not facing the best defensive competition throughout the season, I think we see the defenses shine despite TCU's offensive capabilities. I have this game set at 53 and by getting 57, I give myself more than a fg of variance. If you do not want to buy the hook, I would play this all the way down to 55, but no lower. We have almost 85% of all bet coming in on the over, yet there has been very little movement that way and Pinny is moving the opposite toward the under. I think sharp money agrees with me on this one and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
Play #11
Tulsa ML (+120) 1x (Locked) LOSS
I think we have a false favorite in this game and I'm not even going to take the 2 points currently being offered. I like Tulsa to win this game outright and I'll jump on the ML value in this spot. I have Tulsa at -2 rather than the other way around and I just don't see why the books have BYU favored. Tulsa has the better offense, defense and special teams according to the advanced numbers and it also has the better quarterback. In addition, I think we see Tulsa come out motivated to win this game as Kinne and some of the other seniors look to redeem a tough season against a very difficult schedule. Tulsa's team speed advantage should lend itself well in this matchup and I don't think BYU can keep up. I think Tulsa wins this game and keeps command all they way through from kickoff to final whistle. I am rolling with Tulsa and the ML value for 1x. Good luck.
Play #12
Boise State (-14) 1x (Locked)WINNER
I would like to play this for multiple units, but I'm not a big fan of laying two touchdowns. Although, in this case, laying 14 is definitely warranted. Boise State has unquestioned dominance in both stats/quantitative factors and motivation/qualitative factors. BSU is rated no worse than 7th overall in offense, defense and special teams in F/+, FEI and S&P advanced efficiency stats. When you look at ASU, they have a fine offense ranked top 30, but their defense is wretched ranked in the bottom 90's. Dennis Erickson is fired after this game and they just announced ASU's starting defensive end and wr/kr are out of this game, one of them a suspension for fighting with Erickson in front of the team. These players don't care about winning for Erickson and historically, teams do not do well in bowl playing for coaches who have been fired. Qualitatively, ASU has nothing to play for in this game, while BSU is always looking to prove themselves, will want to get the seniors' 50th win, will want to play well for Moore and to establish a legacy. Many will say this is a letdown spot for BSU after not making the BCS, however, Boise was in this same spot last year and dominated in the bowl game winning 26-3. I expect this game to be a bit higher scoring, but I have Boise set at -17 and I'm rolling with the Broncos minus the points for 1x. Good luck.
Play #13
Nevada/Southern Miss over (62) 1x (Locked)LOSS
Southern Miss plays at a rapid pace and I expect them to exploit a weaker Nevada defense than recent years. Even though SMiss has a very stout defense, I expect Nevada to move the ball successfully because they can utilize the running ability of Fajardo behind center. SoMiss has an aggressive defense that will beat you down when facing a team like Houston, because they are not worried about the mobility of the quarterback and blitz all day long. However, with Fajardo, they must respect both his passing ability and his rushing ability. Nevada is ranked in the top 30 in offensive F/+, FEI and S&P+, while SoMiss is top 40. You would think the opposite with the SoMiss offense and the senior leadership of Davis. It is true, he has had a great year and that offense is very explosive. However, I think Nevada's offense keeps their team in this game. Ultimately, SoMiss should win and possibly cover, they have by far the better defense with advanced efficiency rankings top 30 in the country while Nevada is no better than 95th. However, I expect Nevada to find some offensive success and make this interesting. I have this game set at 65 and I expect a closing number around 64. I think we're getting solid "value" here and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #14
North Carolina/Missouri over (53) 1x (Locked) WINNER
Been waiting all bowl season for 52 and instead of buying down, I got greedy and waited too long. Today, it went up to 53 and I got burned. However, even though I generally try to avoid overs on the number of 53 because 51 and 52 are such common final scores, I am going to take a shot here because of the evenness of the matchup. These two teams are very similarly matched in all three phases of the game according to the advanced stats. Both offenses are generally ranked in the top 30, both defense in the top 60 and both special teams in the top 60. Both teams are ranked in the 60's as far as average time of possession and I think this game turns into an offensive slugfest. I expect both teams to pull out all the stops with an interim coach factor here with Fedora heading to NC. I have this game set at 55 and I'm rolling with the value on the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #15
California/Texas under (48) 1x (Locked) WINNER
This play is simple. Both defenses are deep, really fast and athletic with top 25 advanced efficiency ratings. Both offense are young, prone to mistakes and lacking a quarterback with passing accuracy. Although Cal has some weapons on the outside at the WR position and Texas has some great running back depth when healthy, I just don't see either of these defenses getting gouged in the bowl game. As we've seen with some of our overs, the offenses have been a bit rusty. If that's the case in this game, we might not see 21 points total. With the dominating efficiency against both the pass and run by these defense, I have this set at 45. Once I saw 48, I had to pull the trigger and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.
Play #16
Rutgers/Iowa State under (45) 1x (Locked) WINNER
This play is all about defense. Rutgers is an elite defensive and special teams team this year. They are generally top 10 in defensive and special teams advanced efficiency stats. On the other side, you have a top 40 defense that is used to playing top flight offenses in the Big 12 and will be facing a rather weak Rutgers offense. This game has a very similar statistical result as the Texas/California under and I see no reason why we shouldn't see a similar result. I have this game set at 43 and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
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. Bad stretch for the Wong's this weekend NFL/NCAA Final. Came out positive though last night as the Alabama 2nd half bet was like stealing...I mean there was NO way LSU was gonna put points on the board unless by fluke. What a dominant display of D!!!
