SportsLockPicks Fiesta Bowl**Texas vs. Ohio State 8:00 FOX

**SportsLockPicks** · 01-04-09, 10:27 PM

Think about this fellas...look at Ohio States last 5 games as opposed to the Longhorns...as far as the strengths of Ohio St's game is concerned, they played them to a T..barring the loss to a GREAT PSU squad...racking up big yards, big defense, and outscoring opponents by DD's 4 times..and don't leave out the fact that these opponents were not pushovers in N'Western, Michigan State, and Illinois...all bowl worthy teams

now look at Texas and you'll see the same trend barring their lone loss to a GREAT TT team, scoring big, defense isn't so good, but outscoring by DD's 3 out of 4 times.

The moral here is that Ohio State has the ability to hang offensively with Texas, and is even more up to the task defensively...a defense dynamic enough to leave a spy on Mccoy almost the entire night...which, in my opinion is the key to interrupting their offense.

Putting some finishing touches on this and deciding how long to wait to get the best line...you can obviously see where i'm leaning so far, but i'll make the solid play soon.

**riggs** · 01-04-09, 10:40 PM

Originally posted by SportsLockPicks

Think about this fellas...look at Ohio States last 5 games as opposed to the Longhorns...as far as the strengths of Ohio St's game is concerned, they played them to a T..barring the loss to a GREAT PSU squad...racking up big yards, big defense, and outscoring opponents by DD's 4 times..and don't leave out the fact that these opponents were not pushovers in N'Western, Michigan State, and Illinois...all bowl worthy teams

now look at Texas and you'll see the same trend barring their lone loss to a GREAT TT team, scoring big, defense isn't so good, but outscoring by DD's 3 out of 4 times.

The moral here is that Ohio State has the ability to hang offensively with Texas, and is even more up to the task defensively...a defense dynamic enough to leave a spy on Mccoy almost the entire night...which, in my opinion is the key to interrupting their offense.

Putting some finishing touches on this and deciding how long to wait to get the best line...you can obviously see where i'm leaning so far, but i'll make the solid play soon.

I'm getting a lot of late info on this one SLP, and everything is indicating OSU + the points, maybe even a small ML wager!!!

BOL

**twitch66** · 01-05-09, 01:10 AM

Still a newbie but having a blast... sunday was a good day and i owe it to reading these forums.
but i have to go against the grain here... I like ut in this game, especially with their big game experience. i think they had the tougher schedule playing 4 top ten teams (lost to tt but beating #1 ok). OSU Played 2 top five teams and lost both.

I have 5 units on tx -9

bol

fyi - I'm leaning toward OK +3 on Thursday.

**DevilDog** · 01-05-09, 01:49 AM

I have had a darn good run so far in the bowls...only lost three all together. I have looked at this game from every angle I can and the ONLY thing that points to Ohio St. covering is a RLM. That is it.

Texas has played a darn tough schedule...Ohio St. has hardly played anyone and when they did they lost! They lost to a Penn St. team that got crushed by USC. They got crushed by USC themselves.

Just like in the NFL you have to really look at QB play in these games. In most bowl and playoff games the winner has an advantage at the QB position.

McCoy vs. Pryor. Are you f'ing serious. Pryor is not even close to a prime time player. Texas lost one game and that was on the road to a pretty good Texas Tech team. I could easily see Texas winning by double digits....But...but....but...the RLM is something to think about here.

**darkside99** · 01-05-09, 02:20 AM

Originally posted by DevilDog

I have had a darn good run so far in the bowls...only lost three all together. I have looked at this game from every angle I can and the ONLY thing that points to Ohio St. covering is a RLM. That is it.

Texas has played a darn tough schedule...Ohio St. has hardly played anyone and when they did they lost! They lost to a Penn St. team that got crushed by USC. They got crushed by USC themselves.

Just like in the NFL you have to really look at QB play in these games. In most bowl and playoff games the winner has an advantage at the QB position.

McCoy vs. Pryor. Are you f'ing serious. Pryor is not even close to a prime time player. Texas lost one game and that was on the road to a pretty good Texas Tech team. I could easily see Texas winning by double digits....But...but....but...the RLM is something to think about here.

I agree with you about the QB matchup. Screw the RLM. Will the line movement help Pryor throw the ball?

**Mr Handicapable** · 01-05-09, 06:33 AM

I like ut in this game, especially with their big game experience. i think they had the tougher schedule

Depends on if you drank the koolaid on the Big 12 this year? They obviously haven't looked too hot in the bowls! It all comes down to UTs attitude imo...they could have the consolation game blues like Alabama!
The ONLY team determined to run first on UT was Okie State this year and they got over 200 rushing in Austin and only lost by 4! At the same time...Ohio State's offense always looks like the 1950s and I'm tired of expecting them to wakeup in a big bowl game? Under 51.5 might be a solid play w/Ohio State running the ball and OSU probably having the best athletes on defense that UT has seen all year!

**carrenzo** · 01-05-09, 09:29 AM

This Game

Originally posted by Mr Handicapable

I like ut in this game, especially with their big game experience. i think they had the tougher schedule

Depends on if you drank the koolaid on the Big 12 this year? They obviously haven't looked too hot in the bowls! It all comes down to UTs attitude imo...they could have the consolation game blues like Alabama!
The ONLY team determined to run first on UT was Okie State this year and they got over 200 rushing in Austin and only lost by 4! At the same time...Ohio State's offense always looks like the 1950s and I'm tired of expecting them to wakeup in a big bowl game? Under 51.5 might be a solid play w/Ohio State running the ball and OSU probably having the best athletes on defense that UT has seen all year!

I am not totally convinced that Tex runs away with this game but I can see an easy 12+ win. I can't overlook their division and teams played. To say Ohio St shouldn't be here. Well you guys might be right. Texas all the way!

**strictlywinners** · 01-05-09, 10:37 AM

NO play on the side for me yet, and I don't think there will be. The side is so hard because you don't know whether Texas wants to make statement and prove they should be National Champion or if they are pissed that they weren't given the opportunity. I do think Ohio States defense is solid and they should keep Texas's big play compability to a minimum. And with Beenie Wells and Pryor they should be able to move the ball some what and pick up 1st downs. I'm pretty sure my play will be the Under.

**jesron1269** · 01-05-09, 12:38 PM

Originally posted by strictlywinners

NO play on the side for me yet, and I don't think there will be. The side is so hard because you don't know whether Texas wants to make statement and prove they should be National Champion or if they are pissed that they weren't given the opportunity. I do think Ohio States defense is solid and they should keep Texas's big play compability to a minimum. And with Beenie Wells and Pryor they should be able to move the ball some what and pick up 1st downs. I'm pretty sure my play will be the Under.

I am leaning under too.

**SportsLockPicks** · 01-05-09, 03:20 PM

15* Ohio State Buckeyes/Texas Longhorns (UNDER 52)

Not making a play on the side...if you need to play it, make a small play on Ohio State and the ML.

**strictlywinners** · 01-05-09, 03:22 PM

I love it, now the big question is do we wait to get a better line or take it now. What do you think?

**patsfan2727** · 01-05-09, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by darkside99

I agree with you about the QB matchup. Screw the RLM. Will the line movement help Pryor throw the ball?

don't know why everyone is so obsessed with QB matchups.
is Colt McCoy going to help out Texas' defense? because they SUCK at defending, as does the entire big 12.

yeah, obviously texas has a great offense,
obviously OSU has a great defense....

did anyone watch Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech?

somebody tell Graham Harrell that having a sicko offense with a crappy D doesn't matter.

**strictlywinners** · 01-05-09, 03:38 PM

Well sorry buddy but Texas's defense does not suck, they are actually very good. I believe they shut down Kansas at Kansas holding them to 7 points. The tend to give up a lot of points because Texas's offense scores so quickly that the other team ends up getting alot more possessions. As you have just said Ohio State has a good defense so Texas Offense shouldn't score quite so quickly, less possessions, less scoring, the under is the play.

**darkside99** · 01-05-09, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by patsfan2727

don't know why everyone is so obsessed with QB matchups.
is Colt McCoy going to help out Texas' defense? because they SUCK at defending, as does the entire big 12.

yeah, obviously texas has a great offense,
obviously OSU has a great defense....

did anyone watch Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech?

somebody tell Graham Harrell that having a sicko offense with a crappy D doesn't matter.

if I'm not mistaken texas has a very good run d and they also led the nation in sacks. They will make Ohio St throw the ball more than they want to.

**xxxvince** · 01-05-09, 04:44 PM

picking texas for small play -8 1/2 and going over for alot of money over 52, better do it now before the line changes again

**SportsLockPicks** · 01-06-09, 12:08 AM

Originally posted by patsfan2727

don't know why everyone is so obsessed with QB matchups.
is Colt McCoy going to help out Texas' defense? because they SUCK at defending, as does the entire big 12.

yeah, obviously texas has a great offense,
obviously OSU has a great defense....

did anyone watch Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech?

somebody tell Graham Harrell that having a sicko offense with a crappy D doesn't matter.

did you not do your homework in school either...the horns boast the #2 rush d in the country...you know what..get out of my thread...tool

**bmw530i** · 01-06-09, 12:11 AM

SportsLocks...very nice man. Congrats!
Thing now is do we look at Florida Oklahoma in a different eye after tonights game? 2 more bowls...to go

**Dfjay9** · 01-06-09, 12:13 AM

Florida is the play imo as long as the spread stays under one score

**SportsLockPicks** · 01-06-09, 12:17 AM

yeah, there is no way i can put my money against an SEC defense in the championship game...a place where some of these gators have already been...Big 12 Texas scored every TD with major penalty help on each drive otherwise who knows what would have happened...i haven't solidified a play yet but thats where i'm at now...the total might have the best value though.