OU vs ASU line dropping faster than a hooker's panty--at +8.5 now

[Urbanwildlife]

Like I stated in an earlier post, tomorrow night is going to be an exciting night, as there is a lot of hype including on this forum about the game. I am psyched for it to begin .... not to mention nervous as hell, since I do have a considerable sum on the game, so it is the curiosity of wanting to know how it is all going to play out that has me on edge. I also have that feeling that it is me against the world lol, as it seems most on the forum here who are posting about the game are riding in the car with ASU, so this only brings more excitement to see how it all plays out.

[testertips]

urban, what did you say about your out of the ordinary big wagers? does this count as one of those?

[Urbanwildlife]

As I posted earlier, this game is my biggest play of the year so far, which is part of the adrenaline rush I am feeling. I generally have 4 to 6 plays a week, and most are for a dime, but this one is considerably larger. I am not one to play 10 or 20 plays a week, as that is not my style. I much prefer to select a few and go with it. The last few years I have had great success, but so far this year, I have been struggling like many of us.

[PAULYPOKER]

As I posted earlier, this game is my biggest play of the year so far, which is part of the adrenaline rush I am feeling. I generally have 4 to 6 plays a week, and most are for a dime, but this one is considerably larger. I am not one to play 10 or 20 plays a week, as that is not my style. I much prefer to select a few and go with it.

I see you did not learn from this epic failure.............

MINNESOTA +7 at IOWA Surprise line!

[Urbanwildlife]

It is not possible to win them all. I can only try to do my best, even though my best sometimes is not good enough. That is why it is called gambling.

[CrimsonTideFan]

This gambling thing is too easy! Lets play... no pound... every favorite! Even road favorites on a weekday game with a soft line and obvious smart money pushing the line down. So lets all POUND it since the oddsmakers are giving us a gift...

[Urbanwildlife]

I simply do not care what others think, as I do my own homework, and come up with my own conclusions, and it has worked for me for quite some time. It is going to be exciting to see who is going to have the last laugh tomorrow night, since so many of you think you are gurus, such as the smart ass above with his big 64 posts of total useless drivel.

[CrimsonTideFan]

I was not aware that post count had anything to do with gambling...

[Urbanwildlife]

It does lead to credibility if you are providing and sharing information instead of just drivel, such as in your 65 posts.

[CrimsonTideFan]

My posts always contain critical information on how not to be a sheep/square/hamburger.

[Believeland]

Everyone on this forum is a square.... Your delusional

[Romanov]

Gonna get your shit rocked, kid.

And even if you do win, the win will only be one data point.

[Urbanwildlife]

"

[Lakers714]

I'm hoping Oregons quick strike offense will take ASUs crowd out of the game early.. Think I will pull the trigger as well with a big play on Oregon. So many weapons offensively and unlike WV, has the defense to help offset an off night offensively should it happen

ORE has good defense?

Arkansas State 34 points at home
Tenn Tech 14 points at home
WAS ST 26 points
WAS 21 points

Good defense? Yea, they played nobody yet, and besides the shutout against AZ at home, their defense has been pretty mediocre.
My point is this, Vegas doesn't give money away. With the line opening at -11 and down to -7.5 at some books should tell u ORE backers that ASU plus the points is the play or no play. I wouldn't be surprised at all if ASU has a chance to win SU at the end of the game.

[M.W.]

I also dislike that term "Sharp" and "Square".

The only Square is the guy who took the wrong side and doesn't cash. Love it when so called "Sharps" lose and say the Squares won today. I'll also take luck anyday and only want to win. I guess so called "Sharps" gain some satisfaction with blaming refs, luck and a slew of other excuses when they lose.

Duck backers have to be a little concerned with line movement. Will be interesting to see where this number closes.

Do you understand that you contradicted yourself? If you are concerned with line movement, you are saying that there are people who are sharper than you (in other words, "sharps"), whose opinion you respect. And you are determining who is sharp before the game is played, not based on who wins and who loses.

[Urbanwildlife]

Oregon gave up all the points to Arkansas State when all there starters were out of the game, as Oregon had scored 50 points in the first half alone:

Oregon was up 35-7 against Tennessee Tech at halftime, and again the starters were all pulled. Tennessee Tech did catch Oregon sleeping on a pass for a touchdown in the first quarter.

Oregon stumbled in the first half of the Washington game. leading only 23-19, but came out in the 2nd half and scored 21 points in the 3rd quarter and eventually won 51-26.

Oregon in the Washington State game came out firing on all cylinders and lead at halftime 35-7, and the starters played only a few minutes in the 3rd quarter, and the game eventually ended up 52-21.

Yes, Oregon does have a pretty decent defense, which is also pointed out in the link I posted on Vegas Insider. The true statistics using the starting defense shows this.

Not much else that I can contribute to this game, so I can only wish the best of luck to everyone, and hope like hell the Oregon Ducks can take me, and the other Oregon Duck players to the pay window!

[M.W.]

My point is this, Vegas doesn't give money away.

Yeah, it does. Every single game. You just need to know where to look.

[Lakers714]

Yeah, it does. Every single game. You just need to know where to look.

You're a fukin idiot if u really believe that.

[Lakers714]

Yes, let's set the line at -11 when the majority of the public will still jump on -13 or -14. Then lets drop the line to -7.5 so everyone can make even more money on the Ducks.

[Urbanwildlife]

I think what M.W. is trying to say is that there are games that Las Vegas makes errors on, but you just have to find them. I also could be wrong in my interpretation. The "every single game" part I do not understand.

[Lakers714]

I think what M.W. is trying to say is that there are games that Las Vegas makes errors on, but you just have to find them. I also could be wrong in my interpretation. The "every single game" part I do not understand.

I totally agree with your last post. Do u think they make this type of error for one of the only football games on national television? Highly doubt it.

[Urbanwildlife]

You are actually agreeing with me! Wow! that is a first! lol Absolutely not on a game of this magnitude.

[Lakers714]

You are actually agreeing with me! Wow! that is a first! lol Absolutely not on a game of this magnitude.

Lol, it's not all about hate bro. We're all trying to do the same thing on here: win money.

[Urbanwildlife]

Not all my friend, as many are on here to just antagonize because there Avon and Amway sales are not providing them the income to bet, so they get there nuts off by antagonizing others.

After watching that SBR video, it has got me mind fcuked, and I cannot take my ass to sleep because of it lol, and in my end of the world it is late, as I no longer live in the United States. Crazy. Good luck this weekend on your bets Laker714, as I hope you are able to take many strolls to the pay window, but definitely not tomorrow night, or in this case tonight!

[Pivotpoint]

Originally Posted by Pivotpoint
I also dislike that term "Sharp" and "Square".

The only Square is the guy who took the wrong side and doesn't cash. Love it when so called "Sharps" lose and say the Squares won today. I'll also take luck anyday and only want to win. I guess so called "Sharps" gain some satisfaction with blaming refs, luck and a slew of other excuses when they lose.

Duck backers have to be a little concerned with line movement. Will be interesting to see where this number closes.

Do you understand that you contradicted yourself? If you are concerned with line movement, you are saying that there are people who are sharper than you (in other words, "sharps"), whose opinion you respect. And you are determining who is sharp before the game is played, not based on who wins and who loses.

It's possible I didn't make myself clear.

I'm not overly concerned with line movement. I said "DUCK BACKERS" have to be concerned. I'm on the Devils + 9 1/2. That's a big move and Books are looking for Duck money now. No denying.

Now, I'm not going to lie. I love getting a better # than what exist. I had this game using my own power rankings set at Ducks - 8. I was a little surprised it moved to 10 and for a moment, thought I could get 10 1/2 with slight juice. I was wrong. That # started getting hit and i had to grab the + 9 1/2 before the plunge.

More importantly, you missed by biggest point. I'm saying it's a joke to say this play is sharp or square BEFORE the game. That's only an opinion. Whoever cashes when the game is over is sharp and that is a fact.

I simply dislike when guys lose and say "Squares Won Today" How can you be sharp and lose?

How could you lose a game, be wrong on your analysis and claim you are sharp? This is usually followed with excuses. Puzzling?


Now, PowerRankings have an impact, but I like intangiables, trends and other data that I mentioned more on an earlier thread about whether the Devils could hang with the Ducks. It's easy to grab the USA today and look at the Sags and fire away. Better chance to get paid if you dig deeper.

Granted, Ducks could blow this game open. All it takes is a turnover or two, a couple stupid penalties and the fans sit on their hands. These are young kids, some with questionable IQ. That goes either way, though.

I really feel that Sun Devil Stadium will be Electric. Black-out, rumored sell out. Huge game and I like Coach Graham here. They will fill it with students and they will be loud. Freshman QB hasn't seen this. Oregon speed will be reduced on grass as they favor the Turf at home. Hope I'm not square after the game. But it's only a single battle among many. Have a nice little chunk on the Devils. If I win, I just capped it well or got lucky. Do your homework, bet smart and use some degree of money management and you'll play this game longer than most. gl with your plays

[Lakers714]

Not all my friend, as many are on here to just antagonize because there Avon and Amway sales are not providing them the income to bet, so they get there nuts off by antagonizing others.

After watching that SBR video, it has got me mind fcuked, and I cannot take my ass to sleep because of it lol, and in my end of the world it is late, as I no longer live in the United States. Crazy. Good luck this weekend on your bets Laker714, as I hope you are able to take many strolls to the pay window, but definitely not tomorrow night, or in this case tonight!

BOL to u too. I have noticed so much hate in this forum since I joined in 2009. It was not like this at all before. People gave their side and angles for their picks and everyone got along. Now, people just jump on others and I see way more bashing on this forum. Trust me, you will be posting that I was right after the game is over tomorrow... Not going to be a huge play for me anyway since I will enjoy the game because that's where I went to school; well there and USC.

[Lakers714]

Originally Posted by Pivotpoint
I also dislike that term "Sharp" and "Square".

The only Square is the guy who took the wrong side and doesn't cash. Love it when so called "Sharps" lose and say the Squares won today. I'll also take luck anyday and only want to win. I guess so called "Sharps" gain some satisfaction with blaming refs, luck and a slew of other excuses when they lose.

Duck backers have to be a little concerned with line movement. Will be interesting to see where this number closes.





It's possible I didn't make myself clear.

I'm not overly concerned with line movement. I said "DUCK BACKERS" have to be concerned. I'm on the Devils + 9 1/2. That's a big move and Books are looking for Duck money now. No denying.

Now, I'm not going to lie. I love getting a better # than what exist. I had this game using my own power rankings set at Ducks - 8. I was a little surprised it moved to 10 and for a moment, thought I could get 10 1/2 with slight juice. I was wrong. That # started getting hit and i had to grab the + 9 1/2 before the plunge.

More importantly, you missed by biggest point. I'm saying it's a joke to say this play is sharp or square BEFORE the game. That's only an opinion. Whoever cashes when the game is over is sharp and that is a fact.

I simply dislike when guys lose and say "Squares Won Today" How can you be sharp and lose?

How could you lose a game, be wrong on your analysis and claim you are sharp? This is usually followed with excuses. Puzzling?


Now, PowerRankings have an impact, but I like intangiables, trends and other data that I mentioned more on an earlier thread about whether the Devils could hang with the Ducks. It's easy to grab the USA today and look at the Sags and fire away. Better chance to get paid if you dig deeper.

Granted, Ducks could blow this game open. All it takes is a turnover or two, a couple stupid penalties and the fans sit on their hands. These are young kids, some with questionable IQ. That goes either way, though.

I really feel that Sun Devil Stadium will be Electric. Black-out, rumored sell out. Huge game and I like Coach Graham here. They will fill it with students and they will be loud. Freshman QB hasn't seen this. Oregon speed will be reduced on grass as they favor the Turf at home. Hope I'm not square after the game. But it's only a single battle among many. Have a nice little chunk on the Devils. If I win, I just capped it well or got lucky. Do your homework, bet smart and use some degree of money management and you'll play this game longer than most. gl with your plays

I agree and I also can't stand the terms "sharp" and "square." Where I don't agree is that you don't pay much attention to line movement. I think that is vital in capping a game and making the best decision; right or wrong. I thought I was alone when I came out on Sunday and posted that the Sun Devils are a solid play based on where the line opened and where it is now. If I were a Duck backer, I would be more confident if Vegas set this line around 13 or 14. Having opened at 11 and now down to 7.5 at some books, Duck backers can't be happy. Like you said, who knows what's going to happen but I absolutely hate it as well when I see people posting "your pick is square." There's only winners and losers and the public doesn't always lose. BOL to you on your play.

[tr4sh]

Well back to the topic, the big question in this game is how the pace that Oregon will inevitably try to set affects ASU. IMO, at some point in the first 3 quarters, Oregon will eventually roll 10-17 points straight. If ASU responds to that by sticking to their gameplan, ASU has all the tools to stay in the game (aka hit the spread). In terms of money line, imo it's a stay away.

Asides from the spread/moneyline, considering these two teams are usually fast starters, I was thinking 1st half over (34) and if that hits and the tempo of the game seems good, I'll just follow it up with the 2nd half over. Anyone have any input on my 1st half/2nd half over idea?

[Believeland]

It's hillarious how everyone's betting ASU strictly on line movement.. "The lines moving in ASUs favor! Therefore ASU IS A LOCK"

[Urbanwildlife]

It's hillarious how everyone's betting ASU strictly on line movement.. "The lines moving in ASUs favor! Therefore ASU IS A LOCK"

It obviously has moved for a reason, but as I stated numerous times, I made my bet on Oregon based on my own due diligence, and the fact I had a very strong vibe/positive feeling about Oregon in this game. I have sense taken a step back on it, based on other information I have read/viewed, mostly the information contained in the SBR video analyzing this particular game, even though my biggest play of the year has already been made on Oregon. GO DUCKS! If I had to do it all over again, I would probably not make any bet, and sit back and hopefully enjoy a great game.

[ridims]

I have been struggling like many of us.

speak for yourself.

[PorkChop]

If this game was on Saturday afternoon. Oregon would be a 10 point favorite or more, the line woulndt have moved and it wouldnt be getting half the amount of hype it's getting now. Ducks roll tonight. Lets not be stupid people

[ridims]

no need to convince anyone about there bets.

however, i have to comment on how ridiculous some of you are. especially the confident ones that are so strung out on previous matches this year for either team - none of these guys played anyone this year! none. you cannot factor this in capping this game. look at the past few years on how schools responded to games like this. Even when ASU wasn't good they were in games against some way better opponents at home. Oregon did bet up on AU this year but AU is not consistent. They have a awful D and there O had plenty opportunity to score against Oregon early in that game but didnt. (I think they had 2 or 3 goal line chances in the 1st.) Give credit to Oregon as they did do a great job on there part but AU just didn't show up to play on the road - plain and simple.

taking a team (any team for that matter) to cover a TD+ on the road in a huge conference game is NOT very smart. A week day game where there is only one other game in ncaaf to bet on but is far less hyped. Public is burying the favourite yet the line is dropping. this is something to take in account when capping a game. this isn't free money.
taking a freshman QB on the road in a sold out conference game is also not very wise. you think this QB is going to get his plays away on time or even get a chance to read the ASU D? you think he has seen this before? you are in for a surprise. ASU are jacked up with some serious bigs with speed. Oregon is very good to but lets be serious here guys. -8 -9 - 10 fav's?
a national televised game will attract a lot of bettors. yet vegas giving the public a nice looking line of only -8 now......

So... Keep betting the favourite. Then tomorrow I will read about how oregon sucks and how the game was rigged in favour of ASU.

[geislr76]

Oregon's defense is overrated. They haven't faced an uptempo team like ASU. I'm not saying that Oregon will lose, but to make a selection based on their defense seems silly.

They haven't faced an uptempo offense? That statement is false. How about when they trounced Arizona (49-0). Zona is a freakishly good offensive team. Very fast, throw like crazy, run well, and beat Ok State and put up big fights against Stanford and a very good Oregon St defense.

They also played Fresno St. Not exactly run and gun, but uptempo nonetheless, and very, very good offensively.

[Urbanwildlife]

. Then tomorrow I will read about how oregon sucks and how the game was rigged in favour of ASU.

No you will not, but I am sure you will be drowning in tears from losing your money!