UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort

[PunisherIND]

Not mm inside = elite nerd style

parlay fodder my dude. the line opened -2500 but is now at -1300. good time to throw it in a bunch of parlays.

[PunisherIND]

btw, i really like the two stann lines (ITD and not stann by decision). those lines are way off IMO.

[Grabaka]

Silva vs Browne ITD @ -350 looking great to me.

[PunisherIND]

Silva vs Browne ITD @ -350 looking great to me.

i'm with you grabaka. i parlayed it with not mighty mouse ITD and not stann by decision.

[Grabaka]

Yeah, there was plenty i like so i did big 2 team parlays with both your stann plays....miocic ITD...bones itd and silva vs browne itd... GL to us!

[Vaughany]

btw, i really like the two stann lines (ITD and not stann by decision). those lines are way off IMO.

yeah took em both as well

[PunisherIND]

yeah took em both as well

Let's get em

[JamesKim]

Holy shit +350. I'm gonna jump huge on that.

edit: +285 on 5dimes. Where did you guys find +350?

[Vaughany]

Holy shit +350. I'm gonna jump huge on that.

edit: +285 on 5dimes. Where did you guys find +350?

5dimes and sportbet, line has just had action so gone down to +285

[JamesKim]

Crazy how fast they move in 4 hours, damn.

I put a Hail Mary parlay of

Dawson by dec
Martinez by KO
Stann ITD

5 bucks for 500.

Considering I think that Dawson by Dec is like 30%, Martinez by KO at 50% and Stann ITD at 50%, this seems like an absolute steal.

[sideloaded]

Crazy how fast they move in 4 hours, damn. I put a Hail Mary parlay of Dawson by dec Martinez by KO Stann ITD 5 bucks for 500. Considering I think that Dawson by Dec is like 30%, Martinez by KO at 50% and Stann ITD at 50%, this seems like an absolute steal.

we move lines here at sbr

[Vaughany]

Lines move in 5 minutes on sportbet and 5dimes...a couple max bets of $100 will change them when they've just opened

[The HOFF]

Thoughts on Benavidez v. Mighty Mouse? I already have a good amount on Joe B. at -280 and think he is literally superior in every area besides speed and footwork. McCall had success imposing his size/power against Johnson and Benavidez couples his power advantage with way more speed than Creepy.

This is my favorite bet on the card. Large bet on Benavidez for me. I can't see a scenario where he loses. I played him straight up, parlayed with S. Martinez, and parlayed with Aldo.

[Beelzebubzy]

Anyone going big 20% esquire on Joey b?
Think I might need to pull this trigger

[PunisherIND]

not quite. about 5% here, might add another 5% closer to fight.

[Vaughany]

Got him in load of parlays...need Ward to win on Sat night first tho

[Thor4140]

UFC 152: Jones vs. Machida II

Date: Sep 22, 2012

Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Venue: Air Canada Centre
Broadcast: Pay-per-view and FX

• Champ Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida - for light-heavyweight title
• Joseph Benavidez vs. Demetrious Johnson - for inaugural flyweight title
• Michael Bisping vs. Brian Stann
• Evan Dunham vs. T.J. Grant
• Matt Hamill vs. Vladimir Matyushenko
• Charles Oliveira vs. Cub Swanson
• Charlie Brenneman vs. Kyle Noke
• Vinny Magalhaes vs. Igor Pokrajac
• Dan Miller vs. TBA
• Marcus Brimage vs. Jim Hettes
• Seth Baczynski vs. Simeon Thoresen
• Mitch Gagnon vs. Walel Watson

played jones at -470, but may hedge with machida kotn. as pissed as dana is at jones, if machida scores the ko (only way he wins imo), you can pretty much lock it up for kotn.

now this is how to set up A UFC card. This guy gets it. Has all the fights, time and place. Date. Ya only need one instead of these clowns setting up shit all over the joint.

[DeFactoCrippler]

now this is how to set up A UFC card. This guy gets it. Has all the fights, time and place. Date. Ya only need one instead of these clowns setting up shit all over the joint.

Cosigned. People making numerous flippant threads undermines the work of people who actually take time to construct a thread properly. not to mention it also makes it harder for others to get info, because for some odd reason instead of streamlining the info they want to divert it as many ways as possible.

Is it because they are lazy? Or god forbid they think the tripe they write warrants a whole new thread.

If there is one thread people can actually subscribe to it and get email updates. The only time I get to hit the openers is when beezlebubzy or punisher posts it in Vaughanys thread because it actually shows up on my phone. In other forums mods would merge threads or tell people to do a search.

[Thor4140]

Cosigned. People making numerous flippant threads undermines the work of people who actually take time to construct a thread properly. not to mention it also makes it harder for others to get info, because for some odd reason instead of streamlining the info they want to divert it as many ways as possible.

Is it because they are lazy? Or god forbid they think the tripe they write warrants a whole new thread.

If there is one thread people can actually subscribe to it and get email updates. The only time I get to hit the openers is when beezlebubzy or punisher posts it in Vaughanys thread because it actually shows up on my phone. In other forums mods would merge threads or tell people to do a search.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Got Joe B in a sh*t ton of parleeeez. Counting on that manlet cashing in for me.

[Imsmarterthanu]

Tough matchups I think the favorites are Bisping Oliveira Pokrajec Underdog Simeon Thoresen

[PunisherIND]

Cosigned. People making numerous flippant threads undermines the work of people who actually take time to construct a thread properly. not to mention it also makes it harder for others to get info, because for some odd reason instead of streamlining the info they want to divert it as many ways as possible.

Is it because they are lazy? Or god forbid they think the tripe they write warrants a whole new thread.

If there is one thread people can actually subscribe to it and get email updates. The only time I get to hit the openers is when beezlebubzy or punisher posts it in Vaughanys thread because it actually shows up on my phone. In other forums mods would merge threads or tell people to do a search.

good stuff man. i didnt know about this.

[Vaughany]

Tough matchups I think the favorites are Bisping Oliveira Pokrajec Underdog Simeon Thoresen

Looking forward to the Vinny Magalhaes Pokajac odds and seeing how the line moves

[Grabaka]

Cosigned. People making numerous flippant threads undermines the work of people who actually take time to construct a thread properly. not to mention it also makes it harder for others to get info, because for some odd reason instead of streamlining the info they want to divert it as many ways as possible.

Is it because they are lazy? Or god forbid they think the tripe they write warrants a whole new thread.

If there is one thread people can actually subscribe to it and get email updates. The only time I get to hit the openers is when beezlebubzy or punisher posts it in Vaughanys thread because it actually shows up on my phone. In other forums mods would merge threads or tell people to do a search.

There was an option to click and see the first unseen post on each thread. What happened to that? Its dumb to not have that...

[Vaughany]

Bisping wants to "unload on Stann's face"

[ShotgunRua]

First post here, been lurking for a few weeks and seriously impressed with the accuracy of some of the predictions here!

I've been betting on the last few UFC events and a few boxing matches here and there, considering a parlay which it would be great to get some opinions on.

Martinez + Alvarez + Benavidez + Jones

I would ideally like to change the Jones bet to Jones in the distance or fight won't go distance (always a chance Vitor catches him...)


I feel these are all highly unlikely to go the other way, is there anything you would add to this to beef it up a little with a similar level of 'safety'?

Thinking of putting £350 down for £839 at Paddy Power. Based in the UK, are there any other good sites to use? I've also used Ladbrokes.

Thanks in advance.

[Grabaka]

Welcome Shotgun

As far as "safe" picks i would say Struve vs Miocic ITD and Silva vs Browne ITD. As far as Jones just take jones ITD IMO.

Sportbooks i like: Betcris (bookmaker) (great), 5Dimes (great), Pinnacle (great), Bovada (cool), Paddy (bad lines), Betfair (Most fair...not much action early or openers), Sportsbook (slow on global site...bad lines).

[JamesKim]

First post here, been lurking for a few weeks and seriously impressed with the accuracy of some of the predictions here!

I've been betting on the last few UFC events and a few boxing matches here and there, considering a parlay which it would be great to get some opinions on.

Martinez + Alvarez + Benavidez + Jones

I would ideally like to change the Jones bet to Jones in the distance or fight won't go distance (always a chance Vitor catches him...)


I feel these are all highly unlikely to go the other way, is there anything you would add to this to beef it up a little with a similar level of 'safety'?

Thinking of putting £350 down for £839 at Paddy Power. Based in the UK, are there any other good sites to use? I've also used Ladbrokes.

Thanks in advance.

Isn't Alvarez like -1500? Take him out of the Parlay IMO, useless for the amount of return and anything could happen. Martinez will absolutely annihilate Chavez Jr, I have confidence in that one too. Jones ITD is like -420 compared to the -800 of the straight bet. Much better value IMO. Since Jones will be the last fight in your parlay, you could wait until Martinez, Alvarez and Benavidez hit, then play a small hedge on Vitor ITD to make sure you come out ahead no matter what if you are really worried about Vitor catching him.

If you want a little risk in your parlay, you could try Martinez ITD. It will make your return much larger. I think Chavez Jr gets exposed for the fraud that he is next week. Then again, he does have that concrete head, so play at your own risk.

edit: I have a similar parlay like this:

Pending	4 Team Parlay
				Pending	9/22/12 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Joseph Benavidez -300* vs Demetrious Johnson
				Pending	9/15/12 9:30pm Props Fighting 294 Fight won't go 1:30 round 12 +160* vs Chavez Jr/Martinez goes 1:30 round 12
				Pending	9/22/12 11:30pm Props Fighting 1009 Jones wins inside distance -404* vs Not Jones inside distance
				Pending	9/29/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance -530* vs Struve/Miocic goes 5 round distance

Martinez will really look for the finish, no way he wins a decision. The Chavez family is too connected and Martinez knows it. Fights don't have to be close in boxing to lose decisions. Chavez is terrible at dodging punches, he took 100 punches in the 1st 2 rounds against Zbik and Martinez is a better boxer than Zbik with hell of a lot more power. Not to mention that only fighters that has given Martinez trouble are fighters with stiff long jabs, which Jr doesn't really have. That pressure zombie walk style of Chavez will fall right in the hands of Martinez. Martinez should win inside 6, but I put fight won't go 12 rounds 1:30 because Chavez is pretty durable. Martinez will get more and more aggressive for the finish in the later rounds, he knows he can't afford to have the fight going the decision.

[Vaughany]

Bisping wants to "unload on Stann's face"

Another sexual innuendo from Bisping!...


"From what I understand, Stann isn't training with Jackson anymore," Bisping told Yahoo! Sports. "But who the hell cares either way? Come on, guys. Just because Stann trained with some smug git from New Mexico who can quote the Ninja Turtles, doesn't mean he's got some mystical insight to beat me.

"Listen, Greg Jackson has a smug grin on his face when his gameplans go well, but when they go up he's not there going: "Well, blame me, folks. The fighter just followed my stupid ideas."

"Brian Stann isn't a fighter who can follow through with a sophisticated strategy. I mean this with all due respect for a guy who is clearly a powerful athlete, a determined guy and who hits like a truck but Stann is not a massively talented fighter.

"I know what he's going to do. He is going to throw a leg kick - like he always does - and try to take my head off with a right hand. And, hey, Stann can do it; I have a good chin but Stann can knock anyone in the division out with his power.

"But that's not going to happen. A stupid mistake aside, I mince Brian Stann's arse like burger meat nine times out of 10. I've not seen too much evolution in his game. He's the same guy, someone who will always be dangerous but isn't a top talent in the division and never will be.

"Stann has talked big about how he's going to put me to sleep. Well, that's a fact. I can't avoid it. None of us can. Brian is going to tell some more deathly boring old war stories at the pre-fight press conference, and we are all going to be in for a snooze.

"I was kicking arse in the UFC when Stann was peeling potatoes, shining shoes and getting called a "maggot" by some red-faced sergeant in the Marines. This isn't warfare, this is MMA, and I'm better at it than Brian Stann will ever be. On September 22, Brian Stann is getting knocked out - fast. He won't last as long as a virgin on prom night."

[bogbat]

Bisping could seriously be a comedian.

[bjpenn85]

woaw. that was seriously funny. I agree, stann should consider stop telling those boring war stories. Its not like were bothered to hear about a war they started them self. oh look im so injuried, i got shot by a 14 year old boy in iraq.

[ShotgunRua]

Thanks very much for the good advice jameskim and grabaka. Removed alvarez on your advice. For some reason I can't find a Jones ITD prop anywhere. The UK version of 5dimes doesn't seem to have it. And most of the others are straight plays. Any links etc would be really helpful.

[Vaughany]

Thanks very much for the good advice jameskim and grabaka. Removed alvarez on your advice. For some reason I can't find a Jones ITD prop anywhere. The UK version of 5dimes doesn't seem to have it. And most of the others are straight plays. Any links etc would be really helpful.

5dimes should have whether you are in UK or not. Are you actually signed up to 5dimes or sportbet? Or is it a different name?

[ShotgunRua]

Yeah signed up to 5dimes but the only prop I can see for Jones is whether the fight will go 1.5 rounds or not. Maybe i'm missing something, I will have a proper look later tonight.

[Vaughany]

Yeah signed up to 5dimes but the only prop I can see for Jones is whether the fight will go 1.5 rounds or not. Maybe i'm missing something, I will have a proper look later tonight.

That's probably because you've just clicked "UFC" rather than "Props" which is probably further down on the menu under fighting