2012 MMA (The HOFF)

[gabe]

Parlay Martinez with Papazian and Rocha.

[fosho14]

I have plays on Silva, Papazian, and Rocha for FX 3. Martinez line is a little too high for me right now. Will post my plays after weigh in.

Rocha couldn't take ellenberger down, and when the fight went to the ground it was because ellenberger decided to take it there. Pierce has phenomenal TDD. I agree that if the fight goes to the mat rocha has a shot but do you think Pierce would really come up with that stupid of a game plan when he can keep things on the feet and outstrike him? Pierce or no play IMO.

[The HOFF]

Rocha couldn't take ellenberger down, and when the fight went to the ground it was because ellenberger decided to take it there. Pierce has phenomenal TDD. I agree that if the fight goes to the mat rocha has a shot but do you think Pierce would really come up with that stupid of a game plan when he can keep things on the feet and outstrike him? Pierce or no play IMO.

Pierce sometimes likes to body clinch and push against the cage. I know he did against Koscheck. Possible trip opportunities there. Ellenberger couldn't finish Rocha with his stand up so I doubt Pierce will be able to. Rocha should have 3 rounds to find something. Possibly a leg lock like he had against McKray.

[Vaughany]

Pierce is also a pretty small WW and Ta Danado is huge. Pierce has never faced anybody with a submission game anywhere near as dangerous and aggressive as Ta Danado's so will be interesting.

[The HOFF]

2012 MMA 14-16 +22.05u

UFC ON FX 3

Erik Silva -160 (8u to win 5u)

Jared Papazian -120 (6u to win 5u)

Carlos Eduardo Rocha +210 (5u to win 10.5u)

[bjpenn85]

Why do you like Rocha? Isnt this a terrible style matchup for him? And why havent you played Martinez?

[sirchadwick1]

Rocha is coming off elbow surgery and a layoff... but I think the line reflects that. Should be relatively close so +190 is worth a small play.

[The HOFF]

Why do you like Rocha? Isnt this a terrible style matchup for him? And why havent you played Martinez?

Pierce is the same type of fighter as Ellenberger. So Rocha already has experience with this type of fight. Rocha has size over Pierce and Pierce has not fought anyone with bjj like Rocha's. Martinez line too high for me right now.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Pierce is the same type of fighter as Ellenberger. So Rocha already has experience with this type of fight. Rocha has size over Pierce and Pierce has not fought anyone with bjj like Rocha's. Martinez line too high for me right now.

Yea I agree, i'm thinking about buying out of it (assuming I can, I paid up the ass for martinez at -200), read in a discussion on the bloody elbow 'comments' that people close to bernardo said the means fight was the worst performance they've seen from him and that he was mentally not there and not on his game... take it for what you will, prob just excuses from his camp / friends. Think -200, and espeially the current line of -230ish is way too high and now I'm kind of regretting paying that juice on a guys who I really haven't seen fight outside of one zuffa fight and some random online footage...

And with regard to pierce / rocha, I was really hoping pierce would be closer to evens, I really think this is his fiht to lose. IMO he's a better defensive wrestler than jake and also has better submission defense than jake (and up to the rocha / ellenberger fight it could be argued that was jake's most dangerous submission grappler he fought).. He's also got some tight striking, just as good of technique as jake's if not better (give jake the power edge for sure which makes his overall striking game better / more dangerous), therefore I don't see why pierce can't replicate exactly what ellenberger did and sprawl and brawl to a decision (and imo the ellenberger / rocha fight wasn't as close as people ahve made it out to be, a clear first round for rocha and a clear 2nd and 3rd from jake imo). Also, I wouldn't call pierce a small ww by any means. Ellenberger is a small ww, always has been and rocha's size didn't play a difference there imo... Pierce fought much of his early career at 185 against some monsters, he's a thick dude. All in all though, way too juicy for pierce, so i def see the reasoning to play rocha and I think the betting value is on him. If there is a play at this point its rocha, I wouldn't recommend playing pierce at anything over -175... It's funny for me to say that too because I paid even more juice on ellenberger against rocha (think it was -270) so you would think I'd play pierce, but I would think rocha's learned something and like you all pointed out, by far the best sub grappler he's fought so who knmows if he can defend as well as jake, my guess is he does but who knows.. GL man.

[Educ8d Degener8]

For f*ck's sake is Dimes gonna put props up for Rocha-Pierce?

[NunyaBidness]

For f*ck's sake is Dimes gonna put props up for Rocha-Pierce?

What you looking for, homey? nunyasportsbook.com is always open.

[Vitooch]

I thought there weren't any props for prelims of fight night cards

[Imsmarterthanu]

I like how you guys are underestimating Pierce and Pague

Pappazian's striking isn't leaps and bounds above Pague's I would give the striking advantage to Pague, the question how much of the weight cut is gonna play a role in the fight.

As for Pierce the guy has never been submitted, he is short and stubby, not to mention explosive and strong. He's like a mini rhino and I could see him getting a decision victory if he doesn't get screwed over in this fight like he did in a couple others.

[Vaughany]

For f*ck's sake is Dimes gonna put props up for Rocha-Pierce?

I think they put a lot up just a few hours before the TUF Finale last week

[Vaughany]

Yea I agree, i'm thinking about buying out of it (assuming I can, I paid up the ass for martinez at -200), read in a discussion on the bloody elbow 'comments' that people close to bernardo said the means fight was the worst performance they've seen from him and that he was mentally not there and not on his game... take it for what you will, prob just excuses from his camp / friends. Think -200, and espeially the current line of -230ish is way too high and now I'm kind of regretting paying that juice on a guys who I really haven't seen fight outside of one zuffa fight and some random online footage...

.

yeah, I was expecting Martinez to come out closer to -200. I'd probably still have put him in a couple parlays, but would of been half of what Im playing him straight up which is almost a grand. As u say, that could of just been a really bad day for Magalhaes, he might come out and be relentless with takedown and attempts and do enough to get Martinez down and steal rounds. Im not sure I'd of played Martinez straight up at anything worse than -200

[Vaughany]

What you looking for, homey? nunyasportsbook.com is always open.

Z- rated book!

[Vaughany]

I like how you guys are underestimating Pierce and Pague

Pappazian's striking isn't leaps and bounds above Pague's I would give the striking advantage to Pague, the question how much of the weight cut is gonna play a role in the fight.

As for Pierce the guy has never been submitted, he is short and stubby, not to mention explosive and strong. He's like a mini rhino and I could see him getting a decision victory if he doesn't get screwed over in this fight like he did in a couple others.

U may be right about Papazian. It could be a lot closer then a lot are expecting which is why I didnt go as big as I initially intended to. not convinced in Papazian's finishing ability, which means ur relying on him doing enough to take a decision, which can be dangerous when there is no guarantee that he takes the fight to the ground to steal rounds. If he stands and strikes with Pague for three rounds he could easily lose a close decision. Im jus relying on Papazian's durability and cardio (combined with Pague's big weight-cut) to give him the edge.

[NunyaBidness]

Z- rated book!

Is that why I can't seem to get any customers? Been trying to snag Gabers for a year!

[Vaughany]

Is that why I can't seem to get any customers? Been trying to snag Gabers for a year!

U need to offer a more attractive sign up bonus my friend in order to attract such characters...from what I can tell from looking in the "player's talk" and "saloon", dudes on here will still sign up to a Z- book as long as they get promised a $100 sign-up bonus!

[NunyaBidness]

I told Gabers I'd give him 20% back on all his losses, that seems pretty good to me! Except, he never loses, so that doesn't mean anything, I guess.

[Vaughany]

[gabe]

I told Gabers I'd give him 20% back on all his losses, that seems pretty good to me! Except, he never loses, so that doesn't mean anything, I guess.

I get 25% back with one of my books, 15% with another.

[Imsmarterthanu]

I like how you guys are underestimating Pierce and Pague

Pappazian's striking isn't leaps and bounds above Pague's I would give the striking advantage to Pague, the question how much of the weight cut is gonna play a role in the fight.

As for Pierce the guy has never been submitted, he is short and stubby, not to mention explosive and strong. He's like a mini rhino and I could see him getting a decision victory if he doesn't get screwed over in this fight like he did in a couple others.

Just like I said

[The HOFF]

2012 MMA 14-16 +22.05u

UFC ON FX 3

Erik Silva -160 (8u to win 5u)

Jared Papazian -120 (6u to win 5u)

Carlos Eduardo Rocha +210 (5u to win 10.5u)

Don't have Internet this weekend, only spotty phone coverage. Will update record later.

UFC ON FX 3 (1-2) -6.0u

UFC 148
Gleison Tibau -175 12.25u to win 7u