Prop Joe's Bets Thread

more_betterness · 02-24-12, 02:29 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Hm... I'm almost certain Fukuda won't lose. I will be really shocked.

Completely agree. From what I've gathered you and I are on a lot of the same plays this event

.

gabe · 02-24-12, 02:49 AM

Originally posted by more_betterness

Completely agree. From what I've gathered you and I are on a lot of the same plays this event

.

GL!

Vaughany · 02-24-12, 03:36 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Risking 500 on Cantwell against Fukuda?! You must know something I don't!

Probably that Fukuda shouldnt be a -300 favourite against a half-decent striker and grappler in Cantwell, who is also extremely hard to finish. The advantages that Fukuda may have aren't that great that he should be a -300 favourite IMO.

Vaughany · 02-24-12, 03:37 AM

Originally posted by proposition joe

Back on track after UFC on Fuel

UFC 144

Steve Cantwell (+245) to risk 500

Hatsu Hioki (-170) to win 300

Vaughan Lee (+275) to risk 200

Tamura (+200) to risk 100

Like the balls with the Cantwell play

NunyaBidness · 02-24-12, 11:09 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Probably that Fukuda shouldnt be a -300 favourite against a half-decent striker and grappler in Cantwell, who is also extremely hard to finish. The advantages that Fukuda may have aren't that great that he should be a -300 favourite IMO.

Agree completely.

gabe · 02-24-12, 12:51 PM

Fukuda had a good fight against Nick Ring, and I think Ring would beat Cantwell rather easily. Maybe he shouldn't be a -300 favorite - I personally think it's just - regardless, he's going to pull out the win.

Vitooch · 02-24-12, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Fukuda had a good fight against Nick Ring, and I think Ring would beat Cantwell rather easily. Maybe he shouldn't be a -300 favorite - I personally think it's just - regardless, he's going to pull out the win.

Tough to use that type of MMA math because Ring is a much diffferent fighter stylistically than the other two. With that being said, i dont think Ring would be able to beat Cantwell rather easily. Hes not that bad!

gabe · 02-24-12, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Tough to use that type of MMA math because Ring is a much diffferent fighter stylistically than the other two. With that being said, i dont think Ring would be able to beat Cantwell rather easily. Hes not that bad!

I think Ring is that good. I actually thought he won the Fukuda fight, dunno why people say Fukuda was robbed. I was disagreeing with Rogan throughout the fight.

Hadn't even considered Ring/Cantwell til posting that, but I do see Cantwell having trouble against him, and see him having trouble against Fukuda, as well. His best shot is being able to make it a close fight, IMO. I don't think he manages a win. I think even if he edges a deserved win, he probably won't get it.

Vitooch · 02-24-12, 02:48 PM

I agree with you on Ring Fukuda. While i think it was a really close fight, i certainly dont think it was as big a robbery as some people claim. Ring stuffed a bunch of takedowns and landed plenty Of leg kicks.

As for Cantwell/Fukuda, I have a problem laying so much juice on a fighter whose only UFC fight was a loss to Nick Ring, whom i consider a low/mid tier UFC fighter. I think there are much better plays on this card, but Cantwell at those odds are something to consider

illmatick · 02-25-12, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Ring would beat Cantwell rather easily.

How?. Considering most of that fight would probably take place on the feet, Cantwell hits harder, has the better hand speed ,throws the more fluid combinations and closes distance a lot faster.

Ring is a bit more polished defensively and mixes up his kicks a little better but I don't see how he beats Cantwell rather easily.

gabe · 02-25-12, 02:24 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

How?. Considering most of that fight would probably take place on the feet, Cantwell hits harder, has the better hand speed ,throws the more fluid combinations and closes distance a lot faster.

Ring is a bit more polished defensively and mixes up his kicks a little better but I don't see how he beats Cantwell rather easily.

Let's agree to disagree lol-- I don't think Cantwell hits harder or throws better combos. I think Ring would have no problem technically outstriking him, then taking him down, beating him up, and choking him out.

I'm almost certain that's exactly how that fight would play out. Fukuda, though, will probably win a decision.

Originally posted by Vitooch

I agree with you on Ring Fukuda. While i think it was a really close fight, i certainly dont think it was as big a robbery as some people claim. Ring stuffed a bunch of takedowns and landed plenty Of leg kicks.

As for Cantwell/Fukuda, I have a problem laying so much juice on a fighter whose only UFC fight was a loss to Nick Ring, whom i consider a low/mid tier UFC fighter. I think there are much better plays on this card, but Cantwell at those odds are something to consider

If you carefully study the fighters, you won't be able to bring yourself to bet on Cantwell. I mean, the guy got whooped by Mike Massenzio and a gassed out 40 year old Cyrille Diabate. I think it's silly to think he could beat Fukuda. He's got heart and durability, so I could see him lasting three rounds, but I really don't see him winning a single round in this fight. He's gonna have one last big fight in the UFC. They're throwing him a big bone before they cut him. I guess anyone can win anytime, but you've gotta have some serious balls to be betting on this guy against Fukuda (who feels he was robbed of his first win) in Japan.

Even if Cantwell surprises me and has the performance of his life. Unless he completely dominates the fight, even if he edges a win, I think the decision would still go to Fukuda. So playing Fukuda is the only way to go about it for me.

Vaughany · 02-25-12, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by gabe

let's agree to disagree lol-- i don't think cantwell hits harder or throws better combos. I think ring would have no problem technically outstriking him, then taking him down, beating him up, and choking him out.

i'm almost certain that's exactly how that fight would play out. Fukuda, though, will probably win a decision.

If you carefully study the fighters, you won't be able to bring yourself to bet on cantwell. I mean, the guy got whooped by mike massenzio and a gassed out 40 year old cyrille diabate. I think it's silly to think he could beat fukuda. He's got heart and durability, so i could see him lasting three rounds, but i really don't see him winning a single round in this fight. He's gonna have one last big fight in the ufc. They're throwing him a big bone before they cut him. I guess anyone can win anytime, but you've gotta have some serious balls to be betting on this guy against fukuda (who feels he was robbed of his first win) in japan.

Even if cantwell surprises me and has the performance of his life. Unless he completely dominates the fight, even if he edges a win, i think the decision would still go to fukuda. So playing fukuda is the only way to go about it for me.

wowza

gabe · 02-25-12, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

wowza

Considering his performances on TUF, his finish of Howard, and his first round ground control of Tim Boetsch, there's no doubt he can beat up Cantwell on the ground and possibly finish him. (Cantwell got his ass kicked by Massenzio and Diabate, another 2 guys Nick Ring would beat rather easily!)

Feels like every obvious/common-sense type thing you don't agree with makes me respect your opinions less and less. =(

gabe · 02-25-12, 02:55 PM

BTW- Nick Ring is gay, right? He did gay things to freak people out on TUF, and doesn't talk about his sexuality, I don't think... has he?

But just from the way he talks, his lisp and all... seems like a gay dude to me.

illmatick · 02-25-12, 02:58 PM

Take it back.

Vaughany · 02-25-12, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Considering his performances on TUF, his finish of Howard, and his first round ground control of Tim Boetsch, there's no doubt he can beat up Cantwell on the ground and possibly finish him. (Cantwell got his ass kicked by Massenzio and Diabate, another 2 guys Nick Ring would beat rather easily!)

Feels like every obvious/common-sense type thing you don't agree with makes me respect your opinions less and less. =(

MMAmath is a thing of beauty.

And who is Howard?!

gabe · 02-25-12, 03:01 PM

lmao @ his 'stache - had forgotten about that - yeah, he's def gay

gabe · 02-25-12, 03:09 PM

Hm, Fukuda was in a car accident and unable to properly train for this fight, so maybe Cantwell has a better chance than I thought... but still- he was dominated by a gassed out Cyrile Diabate. I'll still go with the Fuku-Man.

If I was Yushin Okami, My nickname would be "Pushin' 40"

YUUUUUUUSHIIIIINN

PUUUUUUSHIIIIIIIIIN'

FOOOOOORRRRRTYYYYY

OOOOOOOKAAAAAAAAAAAAMMMMIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII IIII!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(even though he's only 30)

Vitooch · 02-25-12, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Let's agree to disagree lol-- I don't think Cantwell hits harder or throws better combos. I think Ring would have no problem technically outstriking him, then taking him down, beating him up, and choking him out.

I'm almost certain that's exactly how that fight would play out. Fukuda, though, will probably win a decision.

If you carefully study the fighters, you won't be able to bring yourself to bet on Cantwell. I mean, the guy got whooped by Mike Massenzio and a gassed out 40 year old Cyrille Diabate. I think it's silly to think he could beat Fukuda. He's got heart and durability, so I could see him lasting three rounds, but I really don't see him winning a single round in this fight. He's gonna have one last big fight in the UFC. They're throwing him a big bone before they cut him. I guess anyone can win anytime, but you've gotta have some serious balls to be betting on this guy against Fukuda (who feels he was robbed of his first win) in Japan.

Even if Cantwell surprises me and has the performance of his life. Unless he completely dominates the fight, even if he edges a win, I think the decision would still go to Fukuda. So playing Fukuda is the only way to go about it for me.

Cantwell has never impressed me, but Fukuda is still unproven. How can a guy coming off a loss to Nick Ring be such a heavy favorite? I think Fukuda wins the majority of the time but at these odds a small stab at Cantwell is not a bad play.

Vitooch · 02-25-12, 04:22 PM

Come to think of it the over on this fight might be the better play.

gabe · 02-25-12, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Cantwell has never impressed me, but Fukuda is still unproven. How can a guy coming off a loss to Nick Ring be such a heavy favorite? I think Fukuda wins the majority of the time but at these odds a small stab at Cantwell is not a bad play.

Because a lot of people think he won the Ring fight, and Ring is a talented fighter. Plus he's Japanese and the fight is in Japan. He's got the crowd on his side, and didn't have to fly an 18hr flight for the fight. Cantwell has been dominated by guys who Fukuda would easily beat, so it's a bit of a no brainer. If Fukuda got full training, I would cap him around -450. But the odds now are about right.

Vitooch · 02-25-12, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Because a lot of people think he won the Ring fight, and Ring is a talented fighter. Plus he's Japanese and the fight is in Japan. He's got the crowd on his side, and didn't have to fly an 18hr flight for the fight. Cantwell has been dominated by guys who Fukuda would easily beat, so it's a bit of a no brainer. If Fukuda got full training, I would cap him around -450. But the odds now are about right.

Ehhh I hate defending Cantwell here because I actually think Fukuda wins the majority of the time. I dont think one should be playing either side of this. The over is where the real value lies. But if you have to bet this, I would throw Fukuda in one parlay or make a very small play on the dog. Please don't record this as you taking Fukuda and me Cantwell, I actually have Fukuda by decision as my prediction for the two SBR contests.

gabe · 02-25-12, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Ehhh I hate defending Cantwell here because I actually think Fukuda wins the majority of the time. I dont think one should be playing either side of this. The over is where the real value lies. But if you have to bet this, I would throw Fukuda in one parlay or make a very small play on the dog. Please don't record this as you taking Fukuda and me Cantwell, I actually have Fukuda by decision as my prediction for the two SBR contests.

If the Fuku-Man is healthy and ready, this should be a walk in the park for him. I've got him in several parlays. I've got a parlay parlayed with my parlay.

Vitooch · 02-25-12, 04:55 PM

proposition joe · 02-25-12, 05:25 PM

You guys all have good points but I still believe in Steve Cantwell.

Good luck to everyone.

Added two last plays for the card.

Ryan Bader (+165) to risk 300

Chris Cariaso (+200) to risk 200

proposition joe · 02-25-12, 05:27 PM

UFC On Fox 3

Josh Koscheck (-145) to win 1000

proposition joe · 02-27-12, 08:58 PM

back up to +$2144 after 144....hoping McCall and Alves keep me back on my upswing

proposition joe · 02-27-12, 09:00 PM

hoping to get Pineda or Te Huna at plus money as well, would really give me more confidence going into Fx 2

Vitooch · 02-27-12, 09:10 PM

I dont know much about about this McCall. Will be researching him and his fight before Friday but it looks like a very strong bet solely based on the odds.

gabe · 02-28-12, 02:17 AM

Originally posted by Vitooch

lol

Vaughany · 02-28-12, 02:56 AM

Originally posted by proposition joe

hoping to get Pineda or Te Huna at plus money as well, would really give me more confidence going into Fx 2

ha Te Huna at plus odds is very optimistic

gabe · 02-28-12, 03:02 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

ha Te Huna at plus odds is very optimistic

lol i thought the same

proposition joe · 02-29-12, 10:11 PM

Yeah, looks like Te Huna at + $ isn't happening

I'll take Pineda over Semerzier all day though.

gabe · 03-01-12, 01:06 AM

I'm on the Pinhead, as well.

MMAbetMASTA · 03-01-12, 07:13 PM

Originally posted by proposition joe

back up to +$2144 after 144....hoping McCall and Alves keep me back on my upswing

Damn son!!!!

You did work on ufc 144... I just looked through your plays - very impressive. I thought everyone did shitty on 144 or had a small win night, but man looks like you cleaned house - props!!

Glad to see you're on alves and creepy too gl this weekend