UFC 128- Jon Bones Jones vs. Mauricio Shogun Rua

**RollPlayer** · 02-15-11, 02:05 PM

Pretty ridiculous value on Shogun here. Jones' line is based on a wave of hype he is riding while Shogun may be the best LHW ever. Should be more of a pick em in my mind

**brooks85** · 02-15-11, 02:18 PM

seems a little early to have an article for an event a month away plus it only touches on 3 fights of an 12 fight card.. come on we need more breakdowns.

**jacktheknife** · 02-15-11, 02:26 PM

Shogun may be the most abysmal wrestler to ever chance upon a UFC belt. Jones may end up being the most dangerous wrestler the sport's ever seen. If you're concerned about hype, you ought to have a memory span longer then three fights.

**sirchadwick1** · 02-15-11, 02:59 PM

Sorry, but Jon Jones is not just riding a 'hype train'. Lesnar, Soko, Houston, Kimbo, Reljic, etc. - these guys were overrated. Bones is not. While he may not have the crazy resume that Shogun has, he also possesses the skills, size, and technique to defeat Shogun. The man has beaten down everyone put in front of him, making most look easy. He's technically undefeated. Shogun's win over Chuck doesn't look so good now.. He did figure out Machida, but looked horrible against Coleman. Jones would have knocked Coleman's head off. At first glance sure... I see value in Shogun. But when I really think about it, I envision Shogun getting a beatdown the same way Fedor did. The only way I see him winning here is by sub and Bones has great sub-awareness and defense.

Taking Bones at -185.

**ttrace35** · 02-15-11, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by jacktheknife

Shogun may be the most abysmal wrestler to ever chance upon a UFC belt. Jones may end up being the most dangerous wrestler the sport's ever seen. If you're concerned about hype, you ought to have a memory span longer then three fights.

The op is right. I said this a previous thread. Jones has never faced a top 15-20 light heavyweight before. While shogun has KO'd mutiple top 10 light heavyweights. Jones has looked great, but he hasn't faced anybody nowhere near the caliber of Shogun. If you are relatively new to the mma scene, do your homework before making this bet. Shogun has beat the best. The best fighter jones ever faced was his last fight. And that dude is prolly ranked #50. Slow down on Jones until he proves it. ESPECIALLY AT NEGATIVE $$$$$!!!!!

**ttrace35** · 02-15-11, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by sirchadwick1

Sorry, but Jon Jones is not just riding a 'hype train'. Lesnar, Soko, Houston, Kimbo, Reljic, etc. - these guys were overrated. Bones is not. While he may not have the crazy resume that Shogun has, he also possesses the skills, size, and technique to defeat Shogun. The man has beaten down everyone put in front of him, making most look easy. He's technically undefeated. Shogun's win over Chuck doesn't look so good now.. He did figure out Machida, but looked horrible against Coleman. Jones would have knocked Coleman's head off. At first glance sure... I see value in Shogun. But when I really think about it, I envision Shogun getting a beatdown the same way Fedor did. The only way I see him winning here is by sub and Bones has great sub-awareness and defense.

Taking Bones at -185.

I notice you are only talking about his short and injury filled ufc career. Sound like tuf noob.

**illmatick** · 02-15-11, 04:12 PM

Shogun is finishing this by tko.

**ttrace35** · 02-15-11, 04:16 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

Shogun is finishing this by tko.

Or submission. Shogun can beat you either way with no problem. I see him beating jones up before choking him. I have to get tickets. Fukkin thing is in JJ's hood. 20 mins from me.

**Birdman126** · 02-15-11, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by RollPlayer

Pretty ridiculous value on Shogun here. Jones' line is based on a wave of hype he is riding while Shogun may be the best LHW ever. Should be more of a pick em in my mind

Originally posted by ttrace35

The op is right. I said this a previous thread. Jones has never faced a top 15-20 light heavyweight before. While shogun has KO'd mutiple top 10 light heavyweights. Jones has looked great, but he hasn't faced anybody nowhere near the caliber of Shogun. If you are relatively new to the mma scene, do your homework before making this bet. Shogun has beat the best. The best fighter jones ever faced was his last fight. And that dude is prolly ranked #50. Slow down on Jones until he proves it. ESPECIALLY AT NEGATIVE $$$$$!!!!!

I have to agree. Bones has without a doubt a lot of potential. But Shogun is in this game for a long time. I only hope he can nullify jones' wrestling.

I don't think jones' lanky physique will scare Rua. He already fought guys with similar body types e.g overeem and diabate.

**ttrace35** · 02-15-11, 04:21 PM

I'm gonna just shut up and hope you tuf noobs keep pounding Bones, so I can get a better line. -200. That's a lot of fukkin juice

**teaserpleaser** · 02-15-11, 04:23 PM

Jones has reach,speed, wrestling, better coaching/gameplan and training partners good luck betting on shogun.

**Mr.Kitty** · 02-15-11, 04:30 PM

My money is on Shogun @ +162

**ttrace35** · 02-15-11, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by Mr.Kitty

My money is on Shogun @ +162

I'm gonna wait. Its already +175 at bookmaker.

**Tree Rollins** · 02-15-11, 05:02 PM

By the time Shogun fights he'll have only fought once in the last 18 months. I wonder if ring rust will be an issue?

**King Mayan** · 02-15-11, 05:14 PM

Jones being favored!!!!

**sirchadwick1** · 02-15-11, 05:30 PM

Trace, making a bet on Bones doesn't make you a TUF noob. That term is ridiculously over used by those who think they're elitists. I've been following MMA since 99 and don't just look up paper records, watch TUF and think I know it all. Shogun has a great chance and there is value in his line if you think he'll show up at 100%, avoiding the rust, and will do fine off his back. His multiple knee surgeries also frighten me. I'm sure JJ will get his skinny legs kicked and he'll get tagged in the face a few times... but I guarantee you that most of this fight takes place on the ground, where Jones wants it. And that's where it ends. IMO the lines are set just about right. If you're going to make a play on Shogun though, wait a bit longer b/c I expect Bones to be -250 or so by fight night (after the rest of the noobs waste throw away their money on the hype). BTW, I'm not biased here... fan of both guys!

**marcoloco** · 02-15-11, 05:37 PM

i will go with the exp shogun

**Cuse4tw** · 02-15-11, 05:40 PM

Do it for the roc bones jones!!!

**ttrace35** · 02-15-11, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by sirchadwick1

Trace, making a bet on Bones doesn't make you a TUF noob. That term is ridiculously over used by those who think they're elitists. I've been following MMA since 99 and don't just look up paper records, watch TUF and think I know it all. Shogun has a great chance and there is value in his line if you think he'll show up at 100%, avoiding the rust, and will do fine off his back. His multiple knee surgeries also frighten me. I'm sure JJ will get his skinny legs kicked and he'll get tagged in the face a few times... but I guarantee you that most of this fight takes place on the ground, where Jones wants it. And that's where it ends. IMO the lines are set just about right. If you're going to make a play on Shogun though, wait a bit longer b/c I expect Bones to be -250 or so by fight night (after the rest of the noobs waste throw away their money on the hype). BTW, I'm not biased here... fan of both guys!

Ok kool. I said tuf noob because I don't think it is fair to only include a few ufc bouts for shogun, in your breakdown. This thread was startted in players talk and a lot of people here are not mma experts. Reading your breakdown, you wouldn't know anything about Shoguns impressive KO victories of top ten comp. You wouldn't know that shogun only has 1 legit loss in the pat 8 years, and that was because he was injured. That's why I said you sound like tuf nooooob.

**Eccocide** · 02-15-11, 06:11 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

Shogun is finishing this by tko.

**playa420** · 02-15-11, 06:32 PM

This is Jones time to shine, styles make fights and this is a terrible matchup for shogun.Shogun is not gonna be able to handle bones athleticism and wrestling.Plus shogun is coming off a long layoff and surgery.

**NickTheGrip** · 02-15-11, 06:38 PM

I think Jones will make Shogun look like Fedor.

**Kaladarus** · 02-15-11, 06:57 PM

Shogun should take this. Jones is going to be exposed.

**kiefynugs** · 02-15-11, 07:00 PM

I dumped a couple on shogun when he hit 170 and now it looks like its topped out at 175 and will probably settle at 160 or so.

I'm thinking about also throwing down on Jones by decision. While he doesn't have the striking or sub grappling to put shogun out he definitely has the wrestling to frustrate the shit out of him and wear him down. Though I see Shogun ending this fight violently there is also the possibility of Jones gassing him and latching on a sub in the late rounds, or even more likely, grabbing the decision.

So maybe a small play on sub of the night maybe a small play on Jones by dec. Not really sure at this point but I see value in those

**Squareguy** · 02-15-11, 08:06 PM

Really hope Shogun takes it, but I have a large bet on Jones, and will put a smaller bet on Jones by submission.

**ttrace35** · 02-15-11, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by Squareguy

Really hope Shogun takes it, but I have a large bet on Jones, and will put a smaller bet on Jones by submission.

**mightyminnow** · 02-15-11, 08:48 PM

Originally posted by jacktheknife

Shogun may be the most abysmal wrestler to ever chance upon a UFC belt. Jones may end up being the most dangerous wrestler the sport's ever seen. If you're concerned about hype, you ought to have a memory span longer then three fights.

good thing for Shogun it's not a wrestling match.

**RealBets** · 02-15-11, 09:15 PM

jones over shogun. ko by elbows

**hothandsmgee** · 02-16-11, 12:26 AM

How is shogun not favored? I get all the hype around jones, but shogun seems like the logical choice

**hothandsmgee** · 02-16-11, 12:59 AM

Then again the way jones has been going i can see him winning

**bogbat** · 02-16-11, 02:56 AM

Jones will no doubt get take downs but the main question in my mind is whether Shogun will be able to sweet Jones.

The other big unknown is the condition Shogun will come into this fight after coming off an injury. Shogun nut huggers blame his injuries for his poor performances vs Forrest and Coleman but Shogun himself makes no such excuse.

**Alt75** · 02-16-11, 03:00 AM

I'm hoping Shogun won't be affected by ring rust and puts on a vintage performance and beats down Jones like what he did to Rampage. Jones definitely has a big future in the sport, it's just too much of a leap from Vera/Vladdy/Bader to Shogun. Shogun at 100% should walk through Jones in under 2/3 mins.

I can't believe sportsbet.com.au currently has Shogun by submission at $10/+900. That's ridiculous, if not insulting. Realistically Jones only chance of catching Shogun in a sub is taking his back out of exhaustion like Forrest did. If taken down Shogun could very well sweep Jones for a kneebar or leglock off his back from half guard.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 02-16-11, 03:02 AM

Will Shogun be the guy to finally kick the sh*t out of those twigs that Jones walks around on???

As others have mentioned, the ring rust / multiple knee injuries are what has me concerned the most; though iirc, I believe Dana has stated that this time around, he insisted Shogun see a doc chosen by Dana (ie, some top notch specialist) and completed a comprehensive rehab program.

I dunno. Definitely rooting for Shogun in any case.

**Vaughany** · 02-16-11, 03:12 AM

As Frank Drebin once said: "All I know is never bet on the white guy!"