The HOFF's MMA 2011

**The HOFF** · 10-29-11, 04:32 PM

UFC 137

Adding: Donald Cerrone/Roy Nelson Parlay +108 (4u to win 4.035u)

**The HOFF** · 10-30-11, 01:19 AM

UFC 137: 3-2 +6.335u
Bellator 56: 1-0 +1.00u

2011 MMA: 49-35 +62.43u

**Hannibal** · 10-30-11, 01:41 AM

damn you killing it hoffman

**Vaughany** · 10-30-11, 05:06 AM

Solid night Hoff, nice one

**The HOFF** · 11-05-11, 05:05 AM

UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz

Vaughan Lee +185 (2u to win 3.7u)

Brad Pickett +130 (2u to win 2.6u)

Anthony Perosh +300 (1u to win 3u)

Miracle Parlay
Jason Young/Anthony Perosh/Vaughan Lee (.5u to win 15.46u)

**jacktheknife** · 11-05-11, 07:23 AM

Originally posted by The HOFF

Anthony Perosh +300 (1u to win 3u)

Ow. Owowowow. Ow.

**Vitooch** · 11-05-11, 03:53 PM

Great call on Perosh. Hopefully you're right on Pickett also!

**The HOFF** · 11-05-11, 04:28 PM

Well Pickett kind of shit the bed there, didn't he.

**TheCalculator** · 11-05-11, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by The HOFF

Well Pickett kind of shit the bed there, didn't he.

Sadly -- he did. Wasn't fighting smart. Tried to outbrawl a faster fighter. Should of gone for take downs.

**The HOFF** · 11-09-11, 05:25 PM

UFC 138: 1-2 -1.0u

2011 MMA: 50-37 +61.43u

**The HOFF** · 11-09-11, 05:29 PM

Really liking Matt Lucas at +130 for the UFC on Fox. Lucas is an All-American wrestler. Rosa is cutting from 261 in his last fight against Beltran. Should be some cardio issues there.

**Vitooch** · 11-09-11, 05:54 PM

Who are you liking in Cain/JDS? Haven't yet found someone who likes JDS in this fight..

**The HOFF** · 11-09-11, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Who are you liking in Cain/JDS? Haven't yet found someone who likes JDS in this fight..

Here he is! I was just going to bring this up in the UFC on Fox thread. I'm going to see how far the line goes. No one is mentioning the year long layoff. Cain hasn't fought anyone with any sort of submission game. Do I think JDS wins by sub, hell... even trys a sub, no. But the possibility is there. I'm going small, but will have some on JDS.

**Vitooch** · 11-09-11, 06:17 PM

I think people aren't giving Dos Santos nearly enough credit. Dos Santos outclassed has outclassed all of his opponents, including a very tough Roy Nelson, and even more impressively, a top HW in Carwin. Plus his grappling is super underrated.

We have seen how Velasquez was rocked twice against a striker in Kongo, and I think Dos Santos has much better TDD than he does.

I'm not touching this fight expect for Dos Santos/Velasquez not going 5 rounds in a parlay. If Dos Santos wins, it will def be inside the distance, and if Cain wins, i'd see theres about a 65-70% chance he finishes Dos Santos in the 3/4th round

My biggest play will be Bendo by submission

**jacktheknife** · 11-09-11, 07:46 PM

Originally posted by The HOFF

No one is mentioning the year long layoff. Cain hasn't fought anyone with any sort of submission game.

I'm more worried that JDS hasn't fought anyone with a real offensive wrestling game. I imagine that the guys at AKA can provide a test roughly up to par with Junior's brown belt, I can't see Team Nog steeling JDS for a smothering shooter the likes of Velasquez.

**Kaladarus** · 11-09-11, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

I think people aren't giving Dos Santos nearly enough credit. Dos Santos outclassed has outclassed all of his opponents, including a very tough Roy Nelson, and even more impressively, a top HW in Carwin. Plus his grappling is super underrated.

We have seen how Velasquez was rocked twice against a striker in Kongo, and I think Dos Santos has much better TDD than he does.

I'm not touching this fight expect for Dos Santos/Velasquez not going 5 rounds in a parlay. If Dos Santos wins, it will def be inside the distance, and if Cain wins, i'd see theres about a 65-70% chance he finishes Dos Santos in the 3/4th round

My biggest play will be Bendo by submission

If you want to talk about people getting outclassed watch Cain's fights. He takes outclassing people to a new level.

Also at 65% and 75% you should be hitting the props. Round 3 and 4 are +800 and +1200 right now for Cain. If you believe Cain wins even 30% of the time you make money here according to your numbers.

**Vaughany** · 11-10-11, 04:08 AM

Originally posted by jacktheknife

I'm more worried that JDS hasn't fought anyone with a real offensive wrestling game. I imagine that the guys at AKA can provide a test roughly up to par with Junior's brown belt, I can't see Team Nog steeling JDS for a smothering shooter the likes of Velasquez.

JDS works on his wrestling with Josh Janousek who is an elite wrestler - but being elite wrestler in NCAA and elite wrestler in MMA are two different things.

**Vitooch** · 11-10-11, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by Kaladarus

If you want to talk about people getting outclassed watch Cain's fights. He takes outclassing people to a new level.

Also at 65% and 75% you should be hitting the props. Round 3 and 4 are +800 and +1200 right now for Cain. If you believe Cain wins even 30% of the time you make money here according to your numbers.

He certainly has but I can't help remembering the time he got rocked twice by Kongo. Yes, he eventually went on to win that fight convincingly but Dos Santos is a much better finisher and has better TDD.

And yes, if Velasquez does win (and I say he wins about 60% based mostly on his cardio) I think it will probably be in the 3rd or 4th round when Dos Santos will probably be tired.

I will most likely be entertaining those props come tonight (we'll see how my Thursday night NFL bets go first)

**The HOFF** · 11-12-11, 07:42 AM

Bellator 57

Ben Saunders -135 (5.4u to win 4u)

UFC on FOX

Junior Dos Santos +140 (2.5u to win 3.5u)

Matt Lucas +130 (5u to win 6.5u)
*Not sure how much I like this bet anymore. Bad feeling I'm wrong on this one. Might buy back.

**Eccocide** · 11-12-11, 10:07 AM

Im on lucas as well. Normal sized play for me tho.

**jacktheknife** · 11-12-11, 01:30 PM

Yeah, I'm on Lucas for a smidge.

**omalley21** · 11-12-11, 02:32 PM

Lucas has fought such weak competition though, I think rosa tko's him. Good luck.

**The HOFF** · 11-12-11, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by omalley21

Lucas has fought such weak competition though, I think rosa tko's him. Good luck.

That's the thing I'm worried about. I think if Lucas can make it out of the first round, he should win.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 11-12-11, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by The HOFF

Bellator 57

Ben Saunders -135 (5.4u to win 4u)

UFC on FOX

Junior Dos Santos +140 (2.5u to win 3.5u)

Matt Lucas +130 (5u to win 6.5u)
*Not sure how much I like this bet anymore. Bad feeling I'm wrong on this one. Might buy back.

agree, I played lucas and am regretting it a bit.... Rosa looked shredded. Hopefully the weight cut has the wrong effect and he gasses sooner than he does at hw.

Gl man

**The HOFF** · 11-13-11, 01:09 AM

Originally posted by The HOFF

Bellator 57

Ben Saunders -135 (5.4u to win 4u)

UFC on FOX

Junior Dos Santos +140 (2.5u to win 3.5u)

Matt Lucas +130 (5u to win 6.5u)
*Not sure how much I like this bet anymore. Bad feeling I'm wrong on this one. Might buy back.

I'm an idiot. I called it before the fight but didn't follow my own advice.

MMA has been so up and down for me. I got up to 50u and then I've hovered there for months. Bet size has been killing me. Too much on losers and not enough on winners.

**The HOFF** · 11-13-11, 01:14 AM

UFC on FOX: 1-1 -1.5u
Bellator 57: 0-1 -5.4u

2011 MMA: 51-39 +54.53

**Vaughany** · 11-14-11, 10:04 AM

Unlucky Hoff, at least u had JDS.. solid pick

Are we gonna do this competition then? I'll create it today or tomorrow if you haven't got the time?

**The HOFF** · 11-19-11, 04:39 AM

UFC 139

Cung Le -115 (11.5u to win 10u)

Rafael Dos Anjos +175 (5u to win 8.75u)

Dan Henderson +100 (5u to win 5u)

Tom Lawlor +275 (2u to win 5.5u)

Shamar Bailey +280 (2u to win 5.6u)

Seth Baczynski +165 (10u to win 16.5u)
*Going to buy back on Matt Brown, waiting to see if the line moves a little more. Will end up with 5u on Baczynski.

**The HOFF** · 11-19-11, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by The HOFF

Seth Baczynski +165 (10u to win 16.5u)
*Going to buy back on Matt Brown, waiting to see if the line moves a little more. Will end up with 5u on Baczynski.

Took Brown -140 for 7u. So essentially have:

Seth Baczynski +190 (5u to win 9.5u)

**terpkeg** · 11-19-11, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by The HOFF

Took Brown -140 for 7u. So essentially have:

Seth Baczynski +190 (5u to win 9.5u)

nice work there

**The HOFF** · 11-26-11, 03:56 PM

UFC 139: 2-3 -6.0u

2011 MMA: 53-42 +48.53

**The HOFF** · 11-26-11, 03:57 PM

Bellator 59

Patricky Freire +130 (5u to win 6.5u)

**The HOFF** · 11-27-11, 05:04 AM

Bellator 59: 1-0 +6.5u

2011 MMA: 54-42 +55.03

Maybe I can put two winning events together...

**lecubs28** · 11-29-11, 03:42 AM

looks like you're doing some nice work in here

**the chef** · 11-29-11, 05:26 PM

Good picks what do you think about Bisping-Miller?